2013 年 6 月第 29 卷第 3 期 教育科学 EducationScience Jun,2013 Vol.29 No.3 * 107 2000 2010 1, 2, 2 (1. 西北大学公共管理学院, 陕西西安 710127;2. 南京农业大学公共管理学院, 江苏南京 210095) 通过构建衡量指标体系, 采用因子分析 相关分析 聚类分析和象限分析等 研究方法, 使用 2000 年和 2010 年横截面数据对我国十大城市群 107 个城市的高等教育与区域经济之间的协调度进行了实证研究结果表明 : 十五 和 十一五 期间,107 个主要城市 高等教育与区域经济的总体协调程度有所下降 ; 各主要城市高等教育水平分布由高到低大 体呈现出 省会城市 东部沿海城市 中西部内陆城市 的分布特征 ; 经济发展水平分布由 高到低大体呈现出 东部省会城市和直辖市 东部沿海城市 东部内陆城市 中部城市 西部城市 的分布特征 ; 主要城市高等教育对区域经济发展的贡献是非常显著的, 但贡献度随时间推移有所下降 ; 城市之间经济发展差距逐步加大, 且经济发展速度之间的差异整体上 远大于高等教育发展速度之间的差异从加大高等教育投入 明确城市发展定位 完善劳动力市场等方面提出了相应的政策建议 中国十大城市群 ;107 个城市 ; 高等教育 ; 区域经济 ; 协调度 G40-054 A 1002-8064(2013)03-0019-11,,,, [1],,,,,,, 10%, 30%, 50% GDP [2],,,, * ( :12JK0083); ( :12S86); ( :PR12005); ( :ggxy0201) 2013-04-20 (1983- ),,,, ; (1987- ),,, ; (1970- ),,, 19
;, [3],, ( 一 ) 研究范围 [4],, [5],, ; ; ;,,,,, 107 ( 1 ),, 107 107, 1 16 10 9 11 15 10 15 9 6 6 ( 二 ) 评价指标, [7],,, [6] :(1), ; (2),,, (3), ; 13 ( 2 ), (4),,, (5) 20
2 H1 H11 H12 H H13 % H21 H2 H22 E11 E1 E12 E13 E E2 E3 GDP % E21 % E22 GDP % E31 E4 GDP E41 E42 ( 三 ) 研究方法, Z,, x ij :x ij = n x ij -xj x, ij,x [8] : S j = j i=1 n, S j =, n 2 ( ; xij-x j) n-1, 槡 i=1 0 1 ;, ( 一 )2000 年中国十大城市群 107 个城市高等教 ( 四 ) 数据来源育与经济发展水平综合评价 1.2000 (2001 2011) KMO Bartlet (2001 2011) 3 ;,, (2001 2011) KMO 0.8310.754,, ; Bartlet (2001 2011) P 0.000, ; 2000, (2001) 21
3 KMO Bartlet KMO Bartlet 2000 2000 Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin 0.831 0.754 706.334 704.567 Bartlet df 10 28 Sig. 0.000 0.000 2.2000, 0.9, 107 ( 4 ) 4 2000 (%) (%) 1 3.555 4.315 71.092 53.933 71.092 53.933 2 0.996 1.189 19.913 14.865 91.006 68.798 3 0.941 11.759 80.558 4, =(F 1 71.092+F 2 19.913)/91.006 (1) 91.006%, 2000107 = 80.558%, (F 1 53.933+F 2 14.865+F 3 11.759)/80.558 (2) (1)(2),, 107 2000,, 107, 107 :, 5 2000107 5 2000 107 2000 2000 1 (1) (2) (3) (4) (1) (2) (3) (4) 2 (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (15) (16) 3 4 5 (17) (18) (19) (20) (17) (18) (19) (20) (21) (22) (23) (24) (25) (21) (22) (23) (24) (25) (26) (27) (28) (29) (30) (31) (32) (33) (34) (35) (26) (27) (28) (29) (30) (36) (37) (38) (39) (40) (36) (37) (38) (39) (40) (41) (42) (43) (44) (45) (41) (42) (43) (44) (45) (46) (47) (48) (49) (50) (51) (52) (53) (54) (55) (31) (32) (33) (34) (35) (46) (47) (48) (49) (50) (56) (57) (58) (59) (60) (56) (57) (58) (59) (61) (62) (63) (64) (65) (60) (61) (62) (63) (64) (66) (67) (68) (69) (70) (65) (66) (67) (68) (69) (71) (72) (73) (74) (75) (70) (71) (72) (73) (74) (76) (77) (78) (79) (80) (51) (52) (53) (54) (55) (75) (76) (77) (78) (79) 22
6 (81) (82) (83) (84) (85) (86) (87) (88) (89) (90) (91) (92) (93) (94) (95) (96) (97) (98) (99) (100) (101) (102) (103) (104) (100) (101) (102) (103) (105) (106) (107) (80) (81) (82) (83) (84) (85) (86) (87) (88) (89) (90) (91) (92) (93) (94) (95) (96) (97) (98) (99) (104) (105) (106) (107) :, ( 二 )2010 年中国十大城市群 107 个城市高等教育与经济发展水平综合评价 1.2010 6,2010 KMO 0.6140.783, ; Bartlet P 0.000, 6 KMO Bartlet KMO Bartlet 2010 2010 Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin 0.614 0.783 729.070 950.959 Bartlet df 10 28 Sig. 0.000 0.000 2.2010, 7, 2010 89.293%, 87.180%,,, 2010 : 2010107 =(F 1 70.010+F 2 19.283)/89.293 (3) 2010107 =(F 1 60.225+F 2 15.279+F 3 11.676)/87.180 (4) 7 2010 (%) (%) 1 3.500 4.818 70.010 60.225 70.010 60.225 2.964 1.222 19.283 15.279 89.293 75.504 3 0.934 11.676 87.180 (3)(4) 107 2010, 107, 8 23
8 2010 107 2010 2010 1 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 2 (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) 3 (19) (20) (21) (22) (23) (24) (25) (26) (27) (28) (29) (30) (19) (20) (21) (22) (23) (24) (25) (26) (27) (28) (29) (30) 4 5 6 (31) (32) (33) (34) (35) (36) (37) (38) (39) (36) (37) (38) (39) (40) (40) (41) (42) (43) (44) (41) (42) (43) (44) (45) (46) (47) (48) (49) (45) (46) (47) (48) (49) (50) (51) (52) (53) (54) (55) (56) (57) (58) (59) (60) (61) (62) (63) (64) (65) (66) (67) (68) (69) (70) (71) (72) (73) (74) (75) (76) (77) (78) (79) (80) (81) (82) (83) (84) (85) (86) (87) (88) (89) (90) (91) (92) (93) (94) (95) (96) (97) (98) (99) (100) (31) (32) (33) (34) (35) (50) (51) (52) (53) (54) (55) (56) (57) (58) (59) (60) (61) (62) (63) (64) (65) (66) (67) (68) (69) (70) (71) (72) (73) (74) (75) (76) (77) (78) (79) (80) (101) (102) (103) (104) (100) (101) (102) (103) (104) (105) (106) (107) (81) (82) (83) (84) (85) (86) (87) (88) (89) (90) (91) (92) (93) (94) (95) (96) (97) (98) (99) (105) (106) (107) :, ( 三 ) 中国十大城市群 107 个主要城市高等教育与经济发展的相关性分析 107,2000 2010 9,2000 Person 0.758,Kendal 0.564, Spearman 0.747,,2000 2010,Person 0.610, Kendal 0.395, Spearman 0.567,2000 2010, 107 24
9 2000 2010 107 2000 2010 0.758 0.610 Person ( ) 0.000 0.000 N 107 107 0.564 0.395 Kendal ( ) 0.000 0.000 N 107 107 0.747 0.567 Spearman ( ) 0.000 0.000 N 107 107 : p<0.001 ( 四 ) 中国十大城市群 107 个主要城市高等教育与经济发展的回归分析, 107 2000 2010,, 1 1 107 2000()2010(),2000 758,, :E=C+ 0.758H, E,H 2010, 107,C, R 2 =0.575, :E=C R 2 =0.571, ;F= +0.570H, R 2 =0.372, R 2 141.972,F 0.000, =0.366, ;F=62.196,F 0.001 0.000, 0.001,,,,, 0.,, 25
, 0.57 2010 19( 2 ) 2000 2010, 0.758 0.57,, ( 五 ) 中国十大城市群 107 个主要城市高等教育与经济发展的协调度评价, 107, [0- ±2] ; [±3-±8] ; [±9-±20] ; [±21-±35] ;! ±36, 2 107 107 2000 2010 ( 10), 3., : 1.2000, 55, ; 48;2010, 49, 4., 54,,, 2., ;, 2000 15 2010 13; 2000 15 10 107 2000 2010 2000 2010 [0-±2] [±3-±8] (-1) (1) (-2) (0) (-1) (-1) (1) (1) (0) (0) (1) (1) (0) (2) (-1) (5) (5) (3) (-4) (3) (-5) (3) (5) (- 4) (-4) (3) (3) (-4) (-5) (-6) (-6) (- 6) (-6) (8) (-8) (8) (7) (8) (-8) (-7) (1) (-1) (0) (-2) (1) (0) (0) (1) (1) 15 13 (1) (-1) (0) (2) (3) (8) (8) (-4) (8) (4) (-7) (5) (5) (5) (4) (-3) (7) 25 21 (-4) (-4) (6) (-5) (-6) (5) (4) (-3) 26
[±9-±20] (-10) (9) (13) (-14) (13) (-13) (14) (9) (-12) (10) (-13) (- 15) (14) (-12) (-14) (11) (-11) (9) (-11) (-16) (-16) (16) (16) (-17) (-9) (-18) (- 18) (17) (19) (-20) (-29) (25) (27) (-24) (24) (24) (27) (-9) (13) (13) (17) (20) (10) (16) (-14) (14) (-14) (-14) (- 20) (19) (-13) (-11) (-14) (16) (10) (-11) 29 34 (-17) (-10) (15) (- 16) (-11) (10) (-14) (-14) (-20) (-15) (15) (13) (9) (-16) (-16) (-23) (-28) (-25) (- (34) (29) (28) (30) (- 23 20 [±21-±35] 21) (22) (-22) (-31) 30) (-21) (-25) (-31)!±36 (35) (31) (32) (35) (- 30) (-31) (-32) (-32) (-36) (37) 40) (40) (44) (49) (- (51) (-42) (-44) (-46) (-39) (36) (-36) (- 36) (31) (25) (-29) (-26) (-28) (-31) (-35) (33) (-23) (21) (-34) (35) (45) (-44) (61) (41) (45) (39) (52) (41) (-50) (-45) (44) (38) (62) (37) (-40) (-67) (- 45) (-53) (-54) (37) 15 19 : ; + ; " 5. ;,, 107, ( 3 ), (Ⅰ ) 2,, (Ⅱ ) 2000,2010, (Ⅲ ),, 2000 2010 (Ⅳ ) 2,, 20,,, 18% ;, 3 107 27
( 一 ) 主要结论 1.,,, 107,, :, 2000 15 2010 13,, ; 2000 15 2010 19 2., 107,,, ; ;, 3.,2000,107, 0.6, ; 2010, 3.,,, 107, () 1., [J].,2008(1):69., [3],,2010(6):111-114. [4],, 2007,3(29):4.,,, [5],. [M]. 2009:5-6., [6],, 2., 2000,,, ;, 4.,, 2000 2010, 2000, 0.76 2010 0.57 [9], 5.,,,,,, 18%, ;, 28 [1],. [J].,2010(2):79. [2]. :. [J].. [N]., :,. [J].,2011(2):74-81. [7],. 2006 [J].
,2010(8):58-65. [8]. [J]., (9):8-13. 2009(5):82-85. [9]. [J].,2011 AnEmpiricalStudyontheDegreeofCoordinationbetweenHigherEducation andeconomiclevelinmajorcitiesoftoptenurbanagglomerationsinchina Basedoncross-sectionaldataof107citiesin2000and2010 GAO Yao 1, GU Jianxiu 2, FANG Peng 2 (1.ColegeofPublicAdministration,NorthwestUniversity,Xi an710127,shanxi 2.ColegeofPublicAdministration,NanjingAgriculturalUniversity,Nanjing210095,Jiangsu) Abstract:Usingthe2000and2010 scross-sectionaldata,thispaperconductsanempiricalstudyonthe degreeofcoordinationbetweenhighereducationandeconomiclevelin107majorcitiesoftoptenurban Agglomerationswiththeapproachoffactoranalysis,correlationanalysis,clusteranalysisandquadrant analysis.theresearchshowsthat,duringthe TenthFive-Year periodandthe EleventhFive-Year period,thecoordinationlevelbetweenhighereducationandeconomicdevelopmentlevelin107majorcit- ieswasslightlydeclined.ingeneral,thehighereducationleveldistributionofthemajorcitiesfromhigh tolow wasshowingthecharacteristicsfromthecapitalcities,toeasterncoastalcities,andtocentral westerninlandcity,whiletheeconomicdevelopmentleveldistribution wasshowingthecharacteristics fromtheeasternprovincialcapitalcitiesand municipalities,toeasterncoastofthecity,thentoeastern inlandcities,tocentralcityandtowesterncity.overal,majorcitiesofhighereducationcontributionto regionaleconomicdevelopmentwassignificantly,butthecontributionhasdeclinedovertime.economic developmentgapamongmajorcitieswasgradualyincreasing,andthedevelopmentspeeddiferenceofe- conomicwaslargerthanthehighereducation.therefore,weshouldincreasehighereducationfundingin- vestment,positionaclearurbandevelopment,andimprovethelabormarketinfuture. Keywords:toptenurbanagglomerationsinChina;107majorcities;highereducation;regionaleconomic level;coordinationdegree 29