: :
1
I
: (Simultaneous equation) CAMEL. () (APLGR) () (TLCR/ALCR)() APLGRt AIRGR t/alcr tairgr t/iirgr t 5%10%5% II
1 1 2 2 3 4 4 17 31 49 49 51 54 CAMEL 54 55 56 57 63 63 67 67 71 72 III
IV 1-1 1 1-1 3 2-1 10 2-2 11 2-3 12 2-4 13 2-5 15 2-1 16 2-6 21 2-7 22 2-8 24 2-9 GDP 25 2-10 26 2-11 1995 27 2-12 ROA ROE 28 2-13 29 2-2 30 2-14 83 84 31 2-15 33 2-16 1986 1992 34 2-17 1986 1991 34 2-18 35 2-19 36 2-20 37 2-21 38 2-22 39 2-3 40 2-23 45 4-1 58 (5-1) - 74 (5-2)75 (5-3) NPLt 76 (5-4) NPLt 77 (5-5) TLCRt 78
(5-6) TLCRt 79 (5-7) AIRGRt 80 (5-8) AIRGRt 81 (5-9) - 82 (5-10) NPLt 83 (5-11) NPLt 84 (5-12) TLCRt 85 (5-13) AIRGR 86 (5-14) TLCRt 87 (5-15) AIRGR 88 (6-1) 70 V
: 1991 7 1992 (2001 12 ) (1-1): 53 38 3 39 285 433 4455 1997 (1-1) 2001 12 1 53 38 39 260 25 324 3 15 3005 69 373 883 44 1300 33 48 4455 : : : 1980 1994 2912 (Savings and loan Association) 2001 4 100 30 2001 36 2000 433
2 10 40% 56% : :. : :
(1-1) 3
4 : : () : () : () : () : Narchant () : () : : 1895 1899 1933 :1896 1899
:1902 1904 :1903 1907 :1905 :1916 1923 :1905 1998 1 3 : 1910 1912 1923 1949 1998 1 :1919 1998 1 :1923 1946 1947 1 5 : : 50 : 1923 1942 ( ) 498 400 1944 4 1945 10 1946 2001 1 1 5
1913 1916 1922 ( ) 1920 1945 1946 9 1947531 1948 1975 1976 7 1.( ) : 1946 5 20 1899 9 26. ( ) 7 1 9 1 1922 1998 12 1923 1 1946 9 1 : 1910 8 1946 1947 3 1949 3 1976 1 : 1905 6 5 46.9% 1998 1 1 : 6
1919 1946 12 12 1947 3 1 1998 1 22 1905 8 1908 1912 1928 1949 1960 10 24 1971 1907 11 1928 1937 1949 1960 2 2 1975 7 1979 1999 9 13 1927 10 25 1928 11 1 1937 1942 6 1949 1961 7 1 1979 11 12 1 7
1933 4 1 1935 6 4 1937 1949 1967 5 20 1999 9 3 ( ) 1934 8 1935 10 1 1947 5 1949 1896 1898 1919. 1930 1935 1949 8 3 1962 6 1 1950 1959 1960 1915 6 10 1950 1965. 1991 1949 1991 1991 16 : 8
:. () 1958 10 1961 3 1 80% (): : 1971 1974 7 1975 5 20 50%50% 17 :. (): : 1967 7 1 1968 4 21 1984 71 99.99%.1993 1 1 1999 11 30 (): 1979 7 1 1982 1 30 99.99% 1994 1 1 8 24 ( )1999 9 27 2001 5 31 : 1970 1975 7 4 140 1978 7 21 19791 11 90 : 9
( ) 1948 1 27 : 2-1 1948 1953 1975 7 138.( 1979 1 1979 2 1 : ( 2-1 ) :. 1948.5.4. 1978.1.1. 1998.5.4. 1948.9.15. 1978.1.1. 1999.4. 1953.8.26. 1978.1.1.. 1998.10 1948.11.1. 1978.1.1.. 1948.11.1. 1978.7.1. 1950.1.1. 1949.5.20. 2001.1.28 1979.1.1. 1950.2.1. 1952.4 1979.2.1. : 10
: : 1970 3 6 2-2 8 2001 12 33 : ( 2-2 ) : 1959.5.14. 1999 1 1964.12.1. 2000 5 13 1 2001 2 23 1971.6.22. 1998.11 1971.6.28. 1994.19.11. 1971.7.9. 1992 7 1 1971.8.6. 1995 4 17 1971.10.12. 2001 5 29 1972.6.24. : : 1959 8 1964 8 2001 12 38 69 OBU 30 : (): 73 50 23 2001 12 39 373 : (2-3 ) 2-4 11
: ( 2-3 ) 1918.6.1 1997.1.1 1919.7.9 1997.1.1 1957.11.1 1997.9.1 1947.6.23 1997.9.1 1981.10.31 1997.9.30. 1936.12.7 1997.9.30 1963.9.9 1997.9.30 1937.9.26 1997.10.27 1913.12.13 1997.12.8 1947.6.11 1998.12.8 1946.11.13 1998.1.1. 1913.7.12 1998.1.1 1919.12.8 1998.1.19 1914.4.22 1998.4.13 1953.12.25 1998.5.11 1950.3.9 1998.5.11 1965.4.28 1998.6.1 1916.5.10 1998.7.11 1918.5.15 1998.7.27 1933.1.31 1999.1.1 1915.12.17 1999.1.1 1928.3.30 1999.4.9 1933.3.22 1999.9.16. 1940.12.11 1999.7.1 1913.9.30 1999.7.1 1957.10.16 2001.8.11 1914.4.21. 2001.9.1 1936.7.10 2001.9.14. 1946.11.13 2001.9.14 1933.1.20 2001.9.14 1937.4.1 2001.9.14 1969.3.4 2001.9.14 12
1940.10.30 2001.9.14 1912.12.23 2001.9.14 : ;. (2-4 ):. 1917.10.25 ( 1918.7.29 13 ) 1964.1.6 1910.12.7 1922.6.6 1934.9.26 1918.10.5 1960.5.2 1917.8.9. 1913.9.13 1935.11.1 1947.6.26 1929.12.18 1929.5.2. 1914.12.14 1912.9.15 1913.9.1 1947.4.24 1939.7.1. 1932.12.19. 1936.11.24 1937.8.8. 1917.3.18 1941.12.31 ( 1928.8.2 1916.10.25 ) 1958.7.1 1924.4.25. 1930.12.17 1937.7.24 1927.7.23 1957.2.28 (1914.1.28 ( 1917.8.7 ) ) 1917.11.3 ( 1916.11.22 ) (1913.9.18 ( 1937.7.12 ) ) 1964.5.4 : 39 6 33
(): 1930 12 30 1974 1991 285 754 90.6.27. 90.9.14. 27 2001 12 260 883 (): 1918 1948 1953 1981 4 1 23 1981 2000 27 49 2001 12 25 44 : (1945 1990 ) 1990 1989 1990 4 10 1991 7 3 15 1992 6 4 12 10 12 1990 4 2001 2-5 16 14
(2-5 ): () 1991.12. 126 1992.1 100 1992.1 120 1992.1. 100 1992.4 100 1992.2 100 1992.1 100 1992.2. 100 1992.2. 120 1992.3 100 1992.3. 135 1992.3 100 1992.4 100 1992.4. 105 1992.4 100 1993.4 100 : : 1998 1 26 200 1 7 1998 8 18 1999 7 12. 15
16 2-1
: (): 1980 11 1985 3 1985 8 1989 7 17 (): 1971 1971 1976 5 1977 1 1978 12 1994 8 24 1978 1998 8 13 16. 1998 9 (1997 )1 11 ( ) 74.28% 47.85% ( ) 25.72% 52.15%1997 1997 11 ( ) 81.8% 77.7% ( ) 18.2% 22.3% 1996 1 126.52% 1995 12.73% 2001 25.64% 17
(): (1) 1945 1959 (2)1960 1990 (3)1991 2001 1992 15 1991 2001 (2-6) 1991 457 2385 2001 433 4455 1.87 (1995 2000 ) 480 3429 2000 473 4267 7 838 1.25 1992 5 1 (2-7) 1995 2000 7 23 15 2 2001 6 27 2000 9 14 7 2 27 ; (2-8) 1992 2000 16 (1995 2000) 1.26 1.24 132.09%129.33% 126.19% 124.44% 108.03% 122.27%119.72%1 : : (): 1991 (2-10) 59834 45023 75.25% 3.01% 0.07% (1995 2000 ) 1995 110140 85369 77.51% 1.84% 0.042%2000 18
145511 128083 1.66% 0.032%. (): 1991 (2-10) 79038 43890 55.53% 2.22% 0.05%1995 130917 78061 59.63% 1.41% 0033%2000 188273 131304 69.74% 1.31% 0.025%. (2-11) 3.01%2.22% 1.66%1.31% 0.05%0.07% 0025%0032% (): : (1995 2000 ) 1995 (2-12) 208424 132060 2000 298309 207751 1.43 1.57 ROA 0.84%0.71% 0.25% 0.47% 2001 0.26% 1995 1995 11210 7922 2000 19390 15991 1.73 2.01 ROE 1995 16.39%11.87% 2000 3.89%6.05% ROE 2001 3.61%ROE (1995 2000 ) 1991 (2-13)3.06% 3.93% 2000 2.99% 5.71% 20 19
( ) 88% (2-2 ) 1995 10.07% 2000 24.36%2001 25.64% 20
(2-6 ) 1995 1991 25 59.52 36 94.74 385 100 8 160 3 30 457 95.21 2385 69.55 1992 40 95.24 36 94.74 386 100.2 1993 41 97.62 37 97.37 386 100.2 1994 42 100 37 97.37 386 100.2 6 6 6 7 140 3 30 472 98.33 2579 75.21 7 140 3 30 474 98.75 2822 82.30 6 120 3 30 474 98.75 3104 90.52 1995 42 100 38 100 385 100 5 100 10 100 480 100 3429 100 1996 42 100 41 107.89 385 100 5 100 12 120 485 101.04 3654 106.56 1997 47 111.90 46 121.05 378 98.18 5 100 14 140 490 102.08 3836 111.87 1998 48 114.29 46 121.05 368 95.58 4 80 16 160 482 100.41 4011 116.97 1999 52 123.81 41 107.89 364 94.55 3 60 16 160 476 99.17 4165 121.46 2000 53 126.19 39 102.63 362 94.03 3 60 16 160 473 98.54 4267 124.44 2001 54 128.57 38 100 324 84.16 3 60 15 150 433 90.42 4455 129.92 : 21
(2-7 ): 1994.12.27 1995.8.4 22 1996.6.4. 1996.11.5 1997.1.5. 1997.8.23 1997.9.29 1997.9.30 1997.10.22 1997.12.19 1997.12.20 1998.1.13 1998.4.11. 1998.4.28 1998.5.11 1998.5.26 1998.6.17 1998.7.27 1999.4.9. 1999.12.29 2110.4.20 1999.9.16 2001.6.15 2001.8.1. 2001.9.1. 2001.9.15 2001.9.15 2001.9.15 2001.9.15 2001.9.15 2001.9.17
2001.9.17 2001.9.17 2001.9.17. 2001.9.17 2001.9.17 2001.9.17 2001.9.15 2001.9.15 2001.9.15 2001.9.15 2001.9.15 2001.9.15 2001.9.15 2001.9.15 2001.9.15 2001.9.17 2001.9.17 2001.9.17 2001.9.17 2001.9.17 2001.9.17 2001.9.17 2001.9.17 2001.9.17 2001.9.17 2001.9.15 2001.9.17 2001.9.15 2001.9.15 : 23
(2-8 ): 1992.5.25 1994.9.8 1996.9.23 1997.9.1. 1997.9.1. 1997.9.13 1997.10.21 1997.12.18 1997.12.28 1997.5.27 1997.8.18 1997.9.8 1999.1.1 1999.1.1. 1999.12.29 1999.12.29 : 24
(2-9 )GDP GDP ( ) % ( ) % 1991 5519140 76.27 216637 70.31 1992 5932383 81.98 241307 78.32 1993 6348468 87.73 264196 92.31 1994 6799720 93.83 286191 92.89 1995 7236536 100 308086 100 1996 7678126 106.10 333948 108.39 1997 8190783 113.18 357503 116.04 1998 8565134 118.36 379202 123.08 1999 9029704 124.78 390466 126.74 2000 9558698 132.09 403382 130.93 2001 9529911 131.69 398468 129.33 ( 1 ) [ ]{ } ( 2 ) 1995 25
(2-10) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) % % 1991 79038 60.37 43890 56.23 59834 54.33 45023 52.74 1992 92690 70.80 52307 67.01 75044 68.14 56998 66.76 1993 107133 81.83 60.702 77.76 87080 79.06 65461 76.68 1994 120733 92.22 70183 89.91 101204 91.87 77819 91.15 1995 130917 100 78061 100 110140 100 85369 100 1996 142375 108.75 86068 110.26 114196 103.68 90276 105.74 1997 152812 116.70 99248 127.14 127847 116.07 105545 123.63 1998 164979 126.01 112500 144.12 134016 121.68 113474 132.92 1999 176993 135.19 122419 156.82 139322 126.50 120820 141.53 2000 188273 143.81 131304 168.20 145511 132.11 128083 150.03 2001 197110 150.56 140590 180.10 141012 128.03 126041 147.64 % % (1) (2) 1995 26
(2-11 ): 1995 ( ( )% )% % % % % 1991 75.25 97.08 55.53 93.12 3.01 0.07 2.22 0.05 1992 75.95 97.99 56.43 94.63 1.89 0.06 1.41 0.046 1993 75.17 77.51 56.66 95.02 1.83 0.05 1.38 0.041 1994 76.89 99.20 58.13 97.48 1.83 0.048 1.38 0.037 1995 77.51 100 59.63 100 1.84 0.042 1.41 0.033 1996 79.05 101.99 60.45 101.38 1.88 0.041 1.43 0.031 1997 82.56 106.52 64.95 108.92 1.75 0.037 1.38 0.029 1998 84.67 109.23 68.19 114.36 1.76 0.035 1.42 0.028 1999 86.72 111.88 69.17 116 1.66 0.033 1.33 0.026 2000 88.02 113.56 69.74 116.95 1.66 0.032 1.31 0.025 2001 89.38 115.31 71.33 128.45 1.68 0.029 1.34 0.023 :( 1) (2). 27
(2-12) ROA ROE (1) (2) (3) 1995 (ROA (ROA (ROE (ROE ) ) 1991 121686 N N 74083 0.90 78.89 5172 N N 3213 21.61 54.92 1992 144581 N N 88917 0.72 98.61 7417 N N 5324 12.70 93.46 1993 177193 N N 104404 0.80 88.75 8647 N N 6107 14.50 81.86 1994 192284 1.13 74.33 121017 0.84 84.52 10284 26.52 61.80 7324 13.86 85.65 1995 208424 0.84 100 132060 0.71 100 11210 16.39 100 7922 11.87 100 1996 228612 0.62 73.81 144127 0.73 102.82 13073 10.85 66.20 9259 11.36 95.70 1997 241217 0.72 85.71 155028 0.85 119.72 15258 11.45 69.86 10831 12.23 103.03 1998 261550 0.58 69.05 175479 0.71 100 17861 8.56 52.23 13392 9.29 78.26 1999 279589 0.47 55.95 192601 0.54 76.06 18808 6.98 42.59 15066 6.91 58.21 2000 298309 0.25 29.76 207751 0.47 66.20 19390 3.89 23.73 15991 6.05 50.97 2001 305458 0.30 35.71 217408 0.26 36.62 19437 4.78 29.16 15964 3.61 30.41 ) ) 28
(2-13 ): % % % % % % 1991 7.125 10.183 3.06 6.38 10.31 3.93 1992 6.42 9.17 2.75 5.67 9.64 3.97 1993 6.29 9.26 2.97 5.76 9.63 3.87 1994 6.04 8.98 2.94 5.32 9.65 4.33 1995 6.06 8.88 2.82 5.28 9.61 4.33 1996 5.79 8.55 2.76 5.04 9.39 4.35 1997 5.36 8.25 2.89 4.87 9.69 4.82 1998 5.72 8.48 2.76 5.51 10.37 4.87 1999 5.00 8.03 3.03 4.50 10.14 5.64 2000 4.62 7.61 2.99 3.92 9.63 5.71 2001 4.33 7.15 2.82 3.61 9.33 5.72 : (1) (2). 29
30 (2-2 ):
83 3 25 832300160 81 12 8 811222364 : 82 2 16 83 3 1 84 (2-14) (2-14): 83 84 : 83 1.85% 2.17% 2.77% 2.52% 84 2.92% 3.12% 5.07% 4.80% : : : (): : 1: : 2: : ( ) 31
( + ) / ( + ) = :. : (): : 1 : (1): (Pact Due Loans) 90 180 (2): : 180 : / ( + + )= (). : : 1: : 2: : : (1): (2): (3): (4): (5): (3) 3. : ( ) : ( + ) / ( + + ) = : ( ) (2-15) 1991 0.97% 2001 7.70% 1.75% 16.39% : 32
(2-15) % ( )% 1991 N 0.97 1992 N 0.81 1993 N 1.14 1994 N 1.82 1995 3 2.88 1996 4.15 3.74 1997 4.18 3.74 1998 4.93 4.41 1999 5.67 4.96 2000 6.20 5.47 2001 8.16 7.70 : 33
() : 1 : 1955 1958 1963 10 1 40 1973 2 1 38 1980 1987 34.5% 1991 1986 91.12% (2-17) 85017 (2-16) 1978 7 1987 30 :(2-16 ):1986 1992 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 35.5 28.55 28.17 26.17 27.13 25.74 25.40 NT$/1US$ N 24% 1.3% 7.6% - 3.7% 5.4% 1.3% 463 767 740 732 724 824 823 N 65.6% - 3.6% - 1.09% - 1.1% 13.81% - 0.1% 32989 41750 49208 56719 58344 67494 80926 M2 25.3% 26.6% 17.9% 15.3% 11.1% 15.7% 18.6% 39849 53612 60585 66201 67214 76161 81480 29.7% 34.5% 13% 9.3% 1.5% 13.3% 7% 32830 42088 50744 59439 64946 75991 91161 25% 28.2% 20.6% 17.1% 9.3% 17 % 17.3% 20976 24399 33774 43907 50497 61590 78972 5.7% 16.3% 38.4% 30% 15% 22% 25.7% :85 (2-17 ) 1986 1991 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 15684 18655 10929 13952 12498 13299 85017 :81 34
1986 1 35.5 1991 25.74 4 40 5 5 (2-16) 1986 463 1991 824 78% M2 1986 32989 1991 67494 104.60%% 1 1986 32830 1991 75991 131.46 % 1986 20976 1991 61590 193.62 % 1990 2 1980 1980 1990 (2-18) 1986 944.74 1991 4928.83 421.71% 1989 1986 815.19% 1990 (2-18) 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 944.74 2135.03 5202.21 8646.14 6775.32 4928.83 100% 225.99% 550.65% 915.19% 717.16% 521.71% 1989 : 3 1990 1987 1989 1987 1989 1988 35
40 1977 3 13 55 75 1977 2.7 20 28 (2-19) 3.7 4 1990 : (2-19 ) 1986 1987 1988 1989 7.8 11.4 20.7 29 / 5.7 7.8 17.1 22.8 : (1992). 36
() 1 : :(2-20 ) 1998 3 =100 %UN %GDP SPI ULPI ( )%CDR 1991 7.55 40.07 1.51-9.58 0.22-4.35 4928.83-27.25 N N 1992 7.49-0.37 1.51 0 0.28 27.27 4271.63-13.33 90.20 N 1993 7.01-6.85 1.45-3.97 0.39 39.29 4214.78-1.33 95.61 6 1994 7.11 1.41 1.56 7.59 0.42 7.69 6252.99 48.36 100.06 4.65 1995 6.42-9.70 1.79 14.74 0.52 23.81 5543.75-11.34 100.73 0.67 1996 6.10-4.98 2.60 45.25 0.86 65.38 6003.72 8.30 98.68-2.08 1997 6.68 9.51 2.72 4.62 0.62-27.91 8410.56 40.09 99.76 1.09 1998 4.57-31.59 2.69 1.10 0.66 6.45 7713.97-8.28 98.61-1.17 1999 5.42 18.60 2.92 8.55 0.85 28.78 7426.28-4.02 95.76-2.98 2000 3.82-29.52 2.99 2.40 0.80-5.89 7847 5.67 92.72-3.28 2001-2.68-170.15 5.22 74.58 0.76-5.00 4907-37.47 86.88-6.72 : (1) 1981. 1970 1990 (2-20 ) 1995 2000 2001 0.2 0.59. Caprio and Klingebiel (1996 ) (2) 37
2-20 ) 2000 12 2.99% 2001 5.22% 0.90 0.8 (3) (Check Dishonored Ratio) (2-21 ) 1999 39.62% 9% (2-21 ) % % % 1992 58.41 56.26 59.67 41.59 43.74 40.33 1993 58.71 54.99 60.71 41.29 45.01 39.29 1994 60.96 56.05 63.53 39.04 43.95 36.47 1995 61.75 53.28 65.84 38.25 46.72 34.16 1996 61.56 52.21 66 38.44 47.79 34 1997 61.14 51.56 66.58 38.86 48.44 33.42 1998 61.32 53.56 66.99 38.68 46.44 33.01 1999 59.17 51.66 65.14 40.83 48.34 34.86 : 89 12 (4) (Stock Price INDEX) 1998 6 7 4 20 1 265% 1989 13899 1990 2485 1990 2001 1990 2 17 38
10202.2 12 27 4614.63 5587. 57 54.77% 1998 3 2 9277.09 9 3 6251.38 3025.71 32.61% (5) 1980 19871989 13 20 (2-19) 1977 45330 1989 184267 4 1990 (2-3) (2-19 ) 1998 3 31 2001 9 30 100 86.88 13.12% 1994 2000 100.06 92.72 7.28% 5.14% 5.5% (1997) 22 (2001 )13 25 1987 18 (2000 ) 4 1 : (2-22 ) 1195 1 1999 1 28.9 17.4 12.3 8.9 11.3 8.5 17.5 11.6 27.6 16.1 11.5 8.3 10.9 8.7 16.6 11 5.14 5.5 : 84 4 89 4 1% ; 15% 39
(2-3) 40
2 (1) 1980 (Lending Boom) (1999 ) 1988 1990 Cavin and Hausmann (1996 ) 1998 12% 6.95% 9.59% 38% 1998 37% 4.17 5.49% 31.% Kaminsky and Reinhart(1996 ) (2) : 2000 1361 67.02% 2001 7.32%7.30% 2000 67% 2001 9.97% 2000 1999 5 44.5% 1% 2000 1.5 8.66 10.16 (2001 ) 1998 11 74.5 17 135 125 1998 10.8% 1999 14.04% 41
(1997 ) 1996 De Juan (1996 ) (3) : (Convergence of Interest hypothesis): 8.3% 4%5.2% 1% (2000 ) 1995 1999 15% 6.% 1995 1998 2.5% (1996 ) (1995 ) Jenson Meckling (1976 ) (Managerial entrenchment hypothesis) 1995 1995 4.08% 199612.31% 10% 1995 11 6 1998 9 6 1995 3.95% 1996 13.78% 1997 3.86% 1998 10.8% (1994) La Porta (1999) Claessens (1999) 42
La Porta (1999)Shleifer Vishny (1997) (4) 2000 4 4 28 154 2002 1 39 200 2001 9 36 36 700 1400 2002 2 (Enron) Roubini (1997 ~ 1998) 4% 20% Cavin and Hausmann (1996) 1995 ( ) 108 (2-23) 81 75% () 1991 12 Caprio and Klingebiel (1996 ) 10% Jensen and Ruback (1983 ) 43
Kaplan and Minton (1994 ) 88.6.30 88733196 (2003 6 ) 2.5% 44
(2-23 ) 1995.7.29 1995.7.31 1995.8.2. 1995.8.3. 1995.8.3 1995.8.4 1995.8.5. 1995.8.17 1995.8.11 1995.8.23 1995.9.4 1995.9.11 1995.9.15 1995.9.20 1995.9.25 1995.9.25 1995.9.25 1995.9.27 1995.10.7 1995.10.30 1995.12.8 1995.12.12 1995.12.28 1995.12.28 1995.12.13 1996.2.9. 45
1996.2.17 1996.3. 1996.3.28 1996.5.7 1996.5.9 1996.5.15 1996.5.17 1996.5.24 1996.5.25 : 1996.5.28 1996.6.17 1996.6.26 1996.7.30 1996.8.6 1996.9.12 1997 1 5 1996.12.31 1997.1.13 1997.1.13 1997.1.13 1997.1.13 1997.1.23 : 1997.1.25 : 1997.2.1 : 1997.2.15 : 1997.3.10 1997.6.11 1997.6.11 1997.9.25 1998.5.8 1998.8.7 1998.9.20 1998.11.3 46
1998.11.5 51% 1998.11.24 1998.11.30 1998.12.5 1999.2.2 1999.3.4 1999.4.27 1999.5.26 1999.7.5. 1999.7.13 2000.5.12 2001 2 23 2000.9.14 36 108 81 27 ( ) : 47
() 4 5831970 ( ;59)1954 () 42121993 () ( 15 92 9-10)(1991 7 ) () 1983 4 1 8-11; ) () 1994 8 24 83305330 1994 11 () 88 3 94 () 562001 ( () 3 48
: : : : ():Andrei Shleifer and Robert W. Vishny (1997 ) 1995 25% 1996 11 1995 4.08% 1996 12.31% 301% ():Gilson (1989 ) (managerial entrenchment hypothesis) Morck Shleifer Vishny (1988) 5%25% Tobin Q (): 1980 1295 6210 1997 2001 36 Robert Morris Associates 1986 6 16 2001 1989 11 1200 1 M.B.Greenwalt J.F.Sinkey (1988 ) C.K.Ma(1988 ) I.Hasan W.C Hunter (1994 ). V.Bhat(1996 ) 5%. 49
(): Kaminsky Reinhart (1996 ) 1984 1988 1988 1993 Kaminsksy Reinhart (1996 ) (1999 ) Hausmann Cavin (1995 ) (2000 ) (1995 1999 ). (1981 1999 ) (1983 1999 ) 0.59-0.2-0.37-0.24 0.44 0.90 0.81 0.75 0.65 0. 52 (1999) 1998 11 Kaminsky Reinhart (1996 ) Mishkin (1994 ) Moyer(1990 ) Beatty. Chamberlain and Magliolo (1995 ) Collins Shackelford and Wahlen(1995 ) Liu and Ryan (1995 ) (1997 ) (1997 ) (): 1938 Horace Secrist (OCC): 50
1930 (Joseph F.Sinkey) ; 1972 Edward I. Altman1968 ( )(CAMEL) (): : :ACR = [K +R +N L 0.5D]/A or NCR= [K+ R +N L D S]/A :Sinkey; 1978 : < : A C R= N C R = K= ( C ); R= (C ); N= (M); L = (A); D= (A); S= (A); A= (A) : : NCR< 2.74% ():. : : =( + ) / (L) ; = / 51 (A); = / (A) = /( + ) (C); = / (M); =( + ) / (M) = ( + ) / (M); :Sinkey ; 1975 : Z () :Edward Altman ; 1968 : (Stepwise Multiple Discriminant Analysis: (SMDA) ;
X 1: = / (L); X 2: = / ( C ); X 3: =( + ) / (E ); X 4: = / (M ) ; X 5: = / (M ) Z Score : Z= 0.012X1+0.014 X 2+0.033 X 3+0.006X 4+0.999 X 5 Z 2.675 (): : Leon Korobow. David P.Stuhr and Daniel Martin ( 1977 ) : Logit : ; : LL.TS=( + ) / ( M ) EQ.ARA= / (C ) EXP.OP = / ( M ) GCO.NI= ) (A )CI.LN= / (A) Cauchy : 52 / ( + P=(1/2) +( 1/arctangent (a 0 + a 1 LL.TS+ a 2 EQ.ARA+ a 3 EXP.OP+ a 4 GCO.NI+a 5 CI.LN) : 1 0 (): Probit Logit : : (1996 ) : Logit : : X1 = / (A) ; X2= / (A) ; X3= / ( E ); X4 = / (L)) ; X5= / ( E ); : 12 Logit 10%. () : 1996
: : : X2 = / (A ); X3= / (C ); X23= / (A ); X37= / ( L ); X40= / ( O ); X43= / ( E ); (Discriminant Score ) : DS=0.075+0.048X2+0.034X3+0.036X23 0.076X37+0.023X40 0.17X43 : DS0.76 DS0.76 53
: : : CAMEL CAMEL : C:(Capital) Bank for Internationl Settlement 8% ( Capital Adequacy Ratio) A:(Asset): ; =( + ) 2.5% M:(Management): E: (Earnings):. : (Return on Asset ROA)= (Return on EquityROE)=. L:(Liquidity) 7% = 7%. 54
CAMEL 10% Watt and Zimmerman(1978) Ronen and Sadan (1981) (managerial incentive variable) (contral : : 2000 9 (the Banker) 2000 12 1.04% 2000 12 35.16% : 1992 1992 2001. 2001 1992 2000 1991 2001 (): 1992 2001 1991 2001 UN SPI CDR (G D P) RR RDR 55
56 399 459 :. (): Ho: H1:. (): Ho: H1: ():Ho: H1:
: : (): XY. Y: (Endogenous Variable ) X (Exogenous Variable) (Independent Variable) ( ) X Y X Y (Simultaneity) (): NPL NPL t =a 0 +a 1 GDP t-1 +a 2 UN t-1 +a 3 CDR t +a 4 SPI t-1 +a 5 APLGR t +a 6 (): TLCR t TLCR t=ß 0 +ß 1 NPL t+ß 2 TDGR t+ß 3 RDR t +ß 4 SPI t-1 +ß 5 IIGR t+ß 6 AIt+e 2 TLCR t + a 7 ALCR t AIRGRt IIGRt +e 1 (): AIRGR t AIRGR t =? 0 +? 1 NPL t +? 2 CDR t +? 3 APLGR t +? 4 ALCR t +? 5 RR t +? 6 TNWGR t +? 7 RDR t + e 3 57
TLCRt GDPt-1 AIt IIGRt TDGRt Unt-1 CDRt SPIt-1 APLGRt TLCRtALCRt AIRGRtIIRGRt NPLt RDRt CDRt ALCRt RRt TNWGRt AIRGRt 4-1 58
: NPL t t GDPt-1: : t-1 UN t-1 : t-1 CDRt: t SPI t-1 : t-1 APLGR t : t TLCR t : ALCR t t AIRGRt : t IIGRt RRt: : t RDRt: : AIt: t TDGRt:I t TNWGRt:I t (): : ; : M: m: K: k: (K- k)(m-1) K-k m K-k = m-1 K-k> m-1 K-km-1 NPLt K-k=12-7=5>3-1=2 TLGRit K-k=12-5=7>2-1=1 AIRGRit K-k=12-6=6>3-1=2 59
Theil R.Basmann (Two-Stage Least-Squares Method) (2 SLS) ():. 1 (NPL) NPL t =a 0 +a 1 GNP t-1 +a 2 UN t-1 +a 3 CDR t +a 4 SPI t-1 +a 5 APLGR t +a 6 60 TLCR t + a 7 ALCR t AIRGRt IIGRt GDPt-1 t-1 GDP UNt-1: CDRt:t CDR SPIt-1: APLGRt TLCR ALCR t t ( ) +e 1
. TLCRt ALCRt AIRGRt t IIGRt 2. TLCR t=ß 0 +ß 1 NPL t+ß 2 TDGR t+ß 3 RDR t +ß 4 SPI t-1 +ß 5 IIGR t+ß 6 AIt+e 2 NPLt TDGR RDRt t-1 SPI t-1 NPLt: t TDGR t t RDRt t SPIt-1: IIGR t AIt 3 61
AIRGR t =? 0 +? 1 NPL t+? 2 CDR t +? 3 APLGR t +? 4 ALCR t +? 5 RR t +? 6 TNWGR t +? 7 RDR t + e 3 t NPLt NPLit CDRt APLGRt ALCR t RR t TNWGR t t 8% RDRt 62
: : NPL t =a 0 +a 1 GDP t-1 +a 2 UN t-1 +a 3 CDR t +a 4 SPI t-1 +a 5 APLGR t +a 6 TLCR t + a 7 ALCR t AIRGRt IIGRt +e 1 TLCR t=ß 0 +ß 1 NPL t+ß 2 TDGR t+ß 3 RDR t +ß 4 SPI t-1 +ß 5 IIGR t+ß 6 AIt+e 2 AIRGR t =? 0 +? 1 NPL t +? 2 CDR t +? 3 APLGR t +? 4 ALCR t +? 5 RR t +? 6 TNWGR t +? 7 RDR t + e 3 NPLt = ao+a1gdpt-1+a2unt-1+a3cdrt+a4spit-1+a5aplgrt+a6alcrt+a7iigrt+a8rrt +a9 RDRt+a10 AIt +a11tdgrt+a12tnwgrt+e1 TLCRt =bo+b1gdpt-1+b2un t-1+b3cdrt+b4spi t-1+b5aplgrt+b6alcrt+b7iigrt+b8 RR t +b9 RDR t +b10 AI t+b11 TDGRt.+b12TNWGR t+e2 AIRGRt =C0+C1GEP t-1+c2un t-1+c3cdr t+c4spi t-1+c5aplgr t+c6alcr t +C7IIGR t+c8 RR t +C9 RDR t +C10 AIt +C11 TDGR t +C12TNWGR t+e3 :NPLt =Xa+e1 TLCRt =Xb+e2 AIRGRt =Xc+e3 X=[1.GDP t-1 UN t-1 CDR t SPI t-1 APLGR t ALCR t IIGR t RR t RDR t AIt TDGR t TNWGR t] a=[a0 a1 a2 a3 a4 a5 a6 a7 a8 a9 a10 a11 a12] b=[b0 b1 b2 b3 b4 b5 b6 b7 b8 b9 b10 b11 b12] c=[ c0 c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6 c7 c8 c9 c10 c11 c12] a= (X X ) -1 X NPLt =[-3443.94-54 -152.13 2246.88 2.53-9.72 1212.47-387.27-40.06 614.05 1.66 454.67 698.34] NPLt =-3443.94-54GDPt-1-152.13UNt-1+2246.88CDRt+2.53SPIt-1-9.72APLGRt +1212.47ALCRt-387.27IIGRt- 40.06RRt+614.05 RDRt+ 1.66 AIt +454.67 TDGRt+ 698.34TNWGRt =[-1.65-0.03 0.59 3.1 0.009 0.002 2.22-0.67 0.042-0.40 0.08 1.3-1.44] NPLt =-1.65-0.03GDPt-1+0.59UNt-1+3.1CDRt+0.009SPIt-1 0.002APLGRt+2.22ALCRt -0.67IIGRt+0.042RRt-0.40 RDRt+0.08 AIt +1.3TDGRt-1.44TNWGRt 63
b=(x X ) -1 X TLCRt =[-1.966 0.08 0.49 1.87 0.004 0.003 1.9 0.22 0.21 0.61 0.14 1.44 0.47] TLCRt =-1.966+0.08GDPt-1 0.49UNt-1+1.87CDRt+0.004SPIt-1 0.003APLGRt +1.9ALCRt 0.22IIGRt 0.21 RR t+0.61rdr t -0.14AI t +1.44 TDGRt.-0.47TNWGR t =[1.07 0.13 0.49 0.35 0.003 0.001 0.43 1.14-0.09 0.13 0.007 0.23 0.83] TLCRt =1.07-0.13GDPt-1-0.49UNt-1-0.35CDRt-0.003SPIt-1+0.001APLGRt+0.43ALCRt +1.14IIGRt-0.09 RR t-0.13 RDR t +0.007 AI t+0.23 TDGRt.+0.83TNWGR t2 C=( X X ) -1 X AIRGRt =[-135.11 1.61 8.28 97.9 0.12-0.41 53.99 19.27-2.1531 24.6-0.19 21.44-27.53] AIRGRt =-135.11-1.61GEPt-1-8.28UNt-1+97.9CDRt+0.12SPIt-1-0.41APLGRt-53.99ALCRt -19.27IIGR t-2.15 RR t +24.6 RDR t 0.19AIt +21.44TDGR t 27.53TNWGR t =[2.47-0.11 0.08 0.79 0.002 0.002 0.03-0.80 0.09 0.11 0.017 1.5 0.56] AIRGRt =2.47+-0.11GEP t-1-0.08unt-1-0.79cdrt+0.002spit-1+0.002aplgrt-0.03alcrt -0.8IIGR t-0.09 RR t +0.11RDR t +0.017 AIt +1.5 TDGR t 0.56TNWGR t NPL t TLCRt AIRGRt NPLt =Xa TLCRt = Xb AIRGRt X c 64
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 NPLt TLCRt AIRGRt 2.16 1.08 1.65 4.3 5.2 4.17 5.49 6.45 35.2 N : : -0.00011 0.20994 0.60998 0.50029 0.61997 0.61001 0.70015 0.98969 1.03996 1.79937 0.2 1.26 1.4 0.58 0.23 0.61 0.7 0.26-0.16 N 0.11068 0.94059 1.16565 0.64001 0.37123 0.36512 0.05164-0.04006 0.02896-0.03968 1 1.65 1.32 1.63 1.47 1.29 2.06 1.6 0.8 N 0.9999 1.7294 1.6871 1.5119 1.2240 1.4139 1.1572 1.11362 1.4426 1.0939 : NPL t NPLt NPLtTLCRt TLCt AIRGRt AIRGR t NPLt=a0+a1GDPt-1+a2UN t-1+a3cdr t+a4spi t-1+a5aplgr t +a6(tlcrt /ALCRt) +a7( AIRGRt /IIRGR t) +e*1 NPLt= M1d1+e*1 1 M =[1 GDP t-1 UN t-1 CDR t SPI t-1 APLGR t (TLCRt /ALCR t) (AIRGRt /IIRGt)] d1= [a0 a1 a2 a3 a4 a5 a6 a7 ] d1=[ M1 M 1] -1 M1 NPLt 65
: adj R 2 =0.8143 F=6.6369> 0.1372 NPLt=-2.276+0.096GDP t+0.0079un t-1+1.003cdr t+ 0.008SPI t-1-0.0057aplgr t-1+ 0.0954(TLCRt /ALCRt) +1.453( AIRGRt /IIGRt) TLCRt : :[-0.8536 0.0125 0.0031 0.2816 0.0022 1.2859 0.1955] adj R 2 =0.9969F 430.8474> 0.0023 :[0.514 0.093 2.6688 0.1527 0.0101 5.2821 0.4644] adj R 2 =0.9791F 71.1337> 0.0025 : TLCRt=-0.8536-0.0125NPLt+0.0031TDGRt+0.2816RDRt-0.0022SPIt-1 +1.2859IIGRt-0.1955AIt : TLCRt=0.514-0.093NPLt-2.6688TDGRt+0.1527RDRt-0.0101SPIt-1+5.2821IIGRt -0.4644AIt AIRGRt : :[-11.0638 0.0353 8.6161 0.0454 3.1669 0.2834 1.8072 1.0583]; adj R 2 =0.9777F 51.1775> 0.1072 :[-0.658 0.9436 3.7828 0.0004 2.1335 0.1542 1.199 1.4433]; adj R 2 =0.7216F 4.3322> 0.2003 : AIRGRt=-11.0638-0.0353NPLt+8.6161CDRt-0.0454APLGRt+3.1669ALCRt+0.2834RRt -1.8072TNWGRt+1.0583RDRt : AIRGRt=-0.658+0.9436NPLt-3.7828CDRt-0.0004APLGRt-2.1335ALCRt-0.1542RRt-1.199 TNWGRt+1.4433RDRt 66
(Simultaneous eguations) NPL. (6-1) (): : adj R 2 R 2 0.9888 4 F 102.0075> 0.0761 ( ) GDP t-1 : 14.5103 t 9.2561P 0.0685<0.10 10% UN t-1: 26.6432 t 9.137 P 0.0694<0.010 10%. CDR t: 253.0523. t 13.273 P 0.0479<0.05 5% SPI t-1: 0.1829 SPI t-1 84 87 48.36%40.09% t -7.9905P 0.079310% APLGR t: -1.425 t -12.8035 P 0.0496<0.05 5% () (TLCR t/alcr) t: -12.1251 67 t -8.1413P 0.0778<0.10 10% () (AIRGR t/iirgr)t: -107.5581 t -14.0906 P 0.0451<0.10 5% ()
() : Adj R 2 :0.8143 0.9888 0.8143 NPL t. F 6.6369 0.1372 ( ) GDP t-1: 0.0957 t -0.206. P 0.8558 GDP t-1 UN t-1: 0.0079 t 0.0314P 0.9778 CDR t : 1.0027 t 0.8363.P 0.491 SPI t-1: 0.0078 t 1.6704P 0.2368 APLGR t: -0.0057 t -1.2393.P 0.3409 (TLCRt/ALCRt): 0.00954 TLCRt/ALCRt TLCRt/ALCRt t 0.6478. P 0.5836 (AIRGRt/IIRGRt): 1.4526 AIRGRt/IIRGRt AIRGRt/IIRGRt 1. t 0.9181 P 0.4555 TLCR (5-6) adj R 2 =0.9969F 430.8474> 0.0023 TLCR 68
TLCR ( ) 0. NPL -0.0125 t -3.2639P 0.0824 10% adj R 2 =0.9791F 71.1337> 0.0025 TLCR TLCR ( ) 0. NPL -0.093 NPL t -0.499P AIRGR (5-8 ) adj R 2 =0.9777F 51.1775> 0.1072 AIRGR AIRGR ( ) 0. NPL -0.0353 t -7.2576P 0.0872 10% adj R 2 =0.7216F 4.3322> 0.2003 AIRGR AIRGR ( ) 0. NPL 0.9436 t 3.0282P 0.0939 10% 9.29% 31.8% 4-5% 69
: (6-1 ) adj R 2 0.9888 F :102.0075 > (0.0761) adj R 2 0.8143 F :6.6369 > (0.1372) t P H0 H1 APLGRt -1.425-12.8035 0.0496 ** 0.1113 X V -0.0057-1.2393 0.3409 0.0046 V X TLCRt/ALCRt -12.1251-8.1413 0.0778 * 1.4893 X V 0.0954 0.6478 0.5836 0.1473 V X AIR/IIR -107.558-14.0906 0.0451 ** 7.6333 X V 1.4526 0.9181 0.4555 1.5822 V X GDPt-1 14.5103 9.2561 0.0685 * 1.5677 0.0957 0.206 0.8558 0.4645 UN t-1-26.643-9.137 0.0694 * 2.916 0.0079 0.0314 0.9778 0.2505 CDR t 253.0523 13.273 0.0479 ** 19.0651 1.0027 0.8363 0.491 1.199 SPI t-1-0.1829-7.9905 0.0793 * 0.0229 0.0078 1.6704 0.2368 0.0047 *10%. **5%.***1%. 70
: NPL t (5-4 ) NPL t GDP t-1 UN t-1 CDR t SPI t-1 APLGR ttlcr t/alcr t AIRGR t/iirgr t lrl>0.8 0.9 CDR t GDP t-1 lrl 0.8366 0.8. APLGR ttlcr t/alcr tairgr t/iirgr t lrl 0.0883-0.0238-0.313 NPL t. NPL t (5-9 ) NPL t GDP t-1 UN t-1 CDR t SPI t-1 APLGR ttlcr t/alcr t AIRGR t/iirgr t lrl>0.8 0.9 UN t-1 GDP t-1 APLGR t GDP t-1 lrl 0.8 0.824 0.8461 APLGR ttlcr t/alcr t AIRGR t/iirgr t lrl 0.6212-0.2823-0.417-66. 71
; (). (). () NPL t adj R 2 0.8143 0.9888 NPL t APLGR t(tlcr t/alcr t)(airgr t/iirgr t). P 0.04960.07780.0451 5%10%5%. APLGR t P 0.3409 TLCR t/alcr tairgr t/iirgr t P 72
() ().() (). 73
( 5-1 )? : 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 0 1.08% 1.65% 4.30% 5.20% 4.17% 5.49% 6.45% 35.16% 17305 32536 53953 65741 74046 108767 148971 172351 103842-151 326 539 238 335 301 409 1355 3593 0 197 745 2641 3791 4531 5739 6225 42512-0 2 7 494 453 789 1292 3002 10673 17456 32733 54698 68381 77837 113297 154710 178576 146354 TLCR* 0.2054 1.2603 1.3950 0.5795 0.2296 0.6110 0.6950 0.2589-0.1642 * 14482 22838 43289 63301 70327 91274 141851 175107 167128 * 1 0.5770 0.8955 0.4622 0.1110 0.2979 0.5541 0.2344-0.0456 (TLCR/ALCR) * 0.2054 2.1842 1.5578 1.2538 2.0685 2.0510 1.2543 1.1045 3.6009 176 328 546 733 788 1090 1701 4356 14266 * 0 86.36% 66.46% 34.07% 7.62% 38.25% 56.07% 156.08% 227.47% * 0 0 18 46 178 55-225 1630 3989 * 0 0 1800% 155.56% 284.63% -69% -508.33% 723.75% 144.78% APLGR* 0 0 27.08 4.5659 37.353-1.8039-9.0660 4.6370 0.6365 1383 2261 4238 6090 6554 8096 12582 14446 11699 9.55% 9.90 9.79% 9.62% 9.32% 8.87% 8.87% 8.25% 7% * 1 1.6349 1.8744 1.4368 1.0763 1.2352 1.5541 1.1482 0.9544 122* 201 266 433 636 821 1688 2707 2152 * 1 1.6475 1.3234 1.6291 1.4665 1.2924 2.0554 1.6031 0.7952 (AIRGR/IIGR)* 1 1.0077 0.7060 1.1338 1.3625 1.0463 1.3226 1.3962 0.8332 13740 30603 52892 66392 75244 123136 159256 186545 159180 * 1 2.2273 1.7283 1.2552 1.1333 1.6365 1.2933 1.1714 0.8533 13785 14295 14579 14810 15202 16567 16923 15083 2740 * 1 1.037 1.0199 1.0159 1.0265 1.0898 1.0215 0.8913 0.1817 * 100% 195.39% 115.56% 114.97% 124.04% 165.24% 72.49% -167.69% -716.15% : * 74
(5-2 ) GDPt CDRt-1 SPIt-1 APLGRt ALCRt IIGRt RRt RDRt AIt TDGRt TNWGR NPLt 1.51 0.28-27.25 0 1 1 13.31 5.63 9.55 1 1 0 7.49 1.51 0.39-13.33 0 0.577 1.6349 12.78 5.5 9.9 2.2273 1.037 1.08 7.01 1.45 0.42-1.33 27.08 0.8955 1.8744 11.46 5.5 9.79 1.7283 1.0199 1.65 7.11 1.0159 4.3 37.353 0.111 1.0763 9.51 5.5 9.32 1.1333 1.0265 6.1 1.0898 4.17 1.0215 0.8913 0.1817 75
( 5-3 ) NPL 76 * * ** * ** * ** *10% **5% ***1%.
77
5-5 TLCRt NPLt TDGRt RDRt SPIt-1 IIGRt AIt 0 5.63-27.25 1 9.55 0.2054 122.73 5.5-13.33 1.6349 9.9 1.2603 72.83 5.5-1.33 1.8744 9.79 1.395 13.33 5.5 1.0763 9.32 0.2296 78
5-6 TLCRt 79 NPLt * ** * ** ***
5-7 AIRGRt NPLt CDRt APLGRt ALCRt RRt TNWGRt 0.28 0 0 13.31 0 1 0.39 0 0.577 12.78 1.037 1.6475 0.42 27.08 0.8955 11.46 1.0199 1.3234 37.353 0.111 9.51 1.0265 1.4665 80
( 5-8 ) AIRGR 81 NPLt * * * *
(5-9 )? : 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 0 0.21% 0.61% 0.50% 0.62% 0.61% 0.70% 0.99% 1.04% 1.80% 17006 29669 50718 68045 87590 113786 120053 134815 155779 166524-170 297 476 648 817 1017 1020 997 495 1268 0 48 195 183 373 484 806 1156 791 1894-0 0 33 34 62 126 228 198 781 N 17006 29717 50913 68228 87963 114270 120859 135971 156570 168418 TLCR* 0.1106 0.9406 1.1657 0.6401 0.3712 0.3652 0.0518-0.0398 0.0290-0.039 * 15313 23509 41601 64151 83701 114908 141604 152151 175215 198.457 * 1 0.5352 0.7696 0.5421 0.3047 0.3728 0.2323 0.0745 0.1516 0.1327 (TLCR/ALCR) * 0.1106 1.7574 1.5147 1.1808 1.2182 0.9796 0.2230-0.5342 0.1913-0.2939 * 170 297 509 682 880 1143 1248 1195 1275 1268 * 0 74.71% 71.38% 33.99% 28.93% 29.91% 9.26% -4.27% 6.71% -0.55% * 0 0 1 19 66 62 148 764 445 1007 * 0 0 0 1900% 247.37% -6.06% 138.71% 417.55% -41.71% 126.29% APLGR* 0 0 0 55.9 8.55-2.08 14.98-97.79-6.22-229.62 1369 2365 4002 6024 7675 10146 12603 12613 14017 14150 8.94% 10.06% 9.62% 9.39% 9.17% 8.83% 8.90% 8.29% 8.00% 7.13% * 1 1.7275 1.6922 1.5052 1.2742 1.3219 1.242 1.0008 1.1113 1.0095 85* 147* 248* 375 459 649 751 836 1206 1318 * 1 1.7294 1.6871 1.5121 1.224 1.4139 1.1572 1.1132 1.4426 1.0929 AIRGR/IIGR* 1 1.0014 0.997 1.004 0.9606 1.0696 0.93172 1.1123 1.2981 1.0826 16517 30800 53324 75626 98553 138175 160701 164109 199135 217610 * 1 1.8647 1.7313 1.4182 1.3032 1.402 1.163 1.0212 1.2134 1.0928 10236 10278 10823 11518 12367 15685 19479 20802 22151 23321 * 1 1.0041 1.053 1.0642 1.0738 1.2683 1.2419 1.0679 1.0648 1.0528 * 100% 498.22% 123.70% 127.24% 122.15% 145.785 81.28% 178.11% 95.39% 91.15% : * 81-83 84 6.2% 82
(5-10 ) NPL TLCRt AIRGRt 83
84
NPLt ** ** ** * 85
(5-13 ) AIRGR 86 NPLt * * *
NPLt TDGRt RDRt SPIt-1 IIGRt AIt TLCRt 87
NPLt CDRt APLGRt ALCRt RRt TNWGRt RDRt AIRGRt 1.224 1.4139 1.1572 1.1132 1.4426 1.0929 88
1. (1947 ) 1 2 45 2. (1954 ) 6 3 59 3. (1970 ) 4. (1971 ) 5. (1992 ) 473 533 6. (1992 ) 18 6 4-13 7. (1992 ) 18 7 4-12 8. ( 1992 ). 8 204~207 9. (1993 ) 4 583 10. (1995 ) 11. (1995 ) 12. (1996 ) 13. (1996 ) 14. (1996 ) 15. (1996 ) 16. (1997 ) 17. ( 1997 ) 30 181~221 18. (1998 ) Andrew C.Harvey (1990 ) 19. (1998 ) 253 24-56 20. (1998 ) 97-106 21. (1998 ) 22. (1999 ) 23. (1999 ) 12 14 88-102 24. (2000 ) 14 2 50-80 25. (2000 ) 14 2 33-49 26. (2000 ) 14 2 1-14. 27. (2000 ) 28. (2000 ) Excel 29. (2000 ) 140-149 30. (2000 ) ( 88 ) 31. (2000 ) 10 32. (2001 ) 89
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