1 1 (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) 9 3 4 5 7 1 7 4 2 0 10 4 1 0 6 2 2 7 3 5 4 0 11 4 1 6 7 3 4 2 6 1 12 3 2 6 4 4 7 7 4 0 13 0 3 2 7 5 2 5 7 0 14 2 4 6 0 6 7 2 0 0 15 3 6 5 1 0 7 6 2 5 1 16 4 4 6 0 8 1 2 4 6 17 4 4 7 3 1 2 100 76 75 51 500 50 26 25 0 MBA

1 1

1 2 X Y Y X Z

A B

2 1 CDI

= ( ) 2 A B C 10000 30000 10000 100 600 500 A 10000 = 100 100 B 30000 = 50 600 C 10000 = 20 500

$ 100 $ 100 $ 1100 $ 1000 $ 100 $ 1100 $ 1100 $ 60 $ 1040 $ 1000 $ 100 $ 1100 $ 110 $ 2560 $ 100 $ 1000 $ 1560 $ 100 $ 2660 $ 2660

$ 2560 $ 1000 $ 100 $ 100 $ 2560 $ 2560 $ 1410 $ 1310 $ 100 $ 1410 $ 1410

3 1 1992.12.31 $ 15.5 3.0 4.0 16.5 $ 39.0 $ 190.0 19.5 5.5 $ 176.0 $ 8.5 1.5 $ 225.0 $ 25.0 6.5 2.0 12.5 1.0 $ 47.0 6.0 27.0 $ 80.0 15.0 45.0 20.0 65.0 $ 145.0 $ 225.0

3 1992 1991 $ 100.0 $ 90.0 59.0 50.0 15.0 20.0 12.0 10.0 $ 86.0 $ 80.0 $ 14.0 $ 10.0 0.5 $ 13.5 5.0 $8.5 1.0 $ 9.0 4.0 $ 5.0

1991 1992 $ 447 $ 2731 $ 123 $ 449 3 3 NSRC 1992 8 1 91 7 92 10 26 14 367 208 1992 1991 1992 1991 $ 42 8 53 10 $ 2 6 23 12.500 528 $ 12 17 238 25 214 $ 172 96 195 25 (235) $ 506 $ 253 $ 506 $ 253

3 4 NSRC 1991 1973 1992 1991 $ 2731 $ 447 319 82 29 326 123 72 916 115 265 20 19 36 $ 449 $ 0.85 55 11 35 21 19 113 61 5 4 $ 123 $ 0.23

3 5 12 31 1 1

3 2 12 3 14 4 17 $ 12 $ 14 $ 17 $ 31 $ 14 $ 26

N ( Ri Ci ) t( Ri Ci Di) S tg( S B) NPV( P) = i + n A ( 1 ) i=1 ( 1+ k) ( 1+ k ) N [ Ri ( Ci Oi )]( 1 t) N Li ( 1 t ) NPV ( L) = i n ( 2 ) i= 1 ( 1 + k) i= 1 ( 1 + r)

NPV = NPV ( P) = NPV( L) N tdi Oi ( 1 t) S tg S B N Li t = i + ( ) ( 1 ) n A + t ( 3 ) 1= i ( 1+ k) ( 1+ k) 1= i ( 1+ r) 3 7 1 2 +34 1Q1 1 t S tk S B 4 2 3 12% 4% 1 (.5) (5000) (.5) (1000) (.5) (4200) 1786 2019 2 (.5) (4000) (.5) (1000) (.5) (4200) 1196 1942 3 (.5) (3000) (.5) (1000) (.5) (4200) 712 1867 4 (.5) (2000) (.5) (1000) (.5) (4200) 318 1795 5 (.5) (5000) (.5) (1000) (.70) (1500) (.5) (4200) 596 1926 =$ 15.000 NPV=$ 4,608 $ 15,000+$ 9,349=$ 1,043 : $ 4.608 $ 9.349

f V S 1

1974 1975 1,348 452 1976 1977 1978 16,623 1,576 6,560 2,075 26,834 2,552 4,068 1,317 17,512 600 2,075 27,774 4,207 5,417 26,834 6,271 27,774 2,331 3,000 3,600 3,600 1,775 2,068 300 390 4,523 933 3,600 933 4,523 1,800 90 4,800 6,690 582 9,600 600 10,782 4,092 6,690 4,242 10,782 150 2,358 302 1,760 760 5,180 2,000 140 3,162 5,302 122 5,180 896 5,305 774 3,567 476 1,315 5,358 305 4,000 760 5,065 293 5,358 896 5,302 493 5,298 706 6,006 777 1,315 2,092 3,914 6,006 11,092 914 3,000

( EBIT Bi)( 1 t) y = S ( la) A = S + B ( lb) 1 t y = ( d X di ) 2 1 B d =, 0 d < 1 A X = EBIT A 1 t y = ( d X di ) 3a 1 1 t σ( y) = σ( X) 3b 1 d

z ϕ ( z) = f( µ ) dµ f( µ ) 0 y ( X di) z = 0 = σ( y) σ( X) 4 4a y 1 t = 2 ( X i) ( 5 ) d ( 1 d) y > 0 ( 5b ) d y d 2 y α( 1 t) 2 = 2 ( X i) > 0 ( 5c) d ( 1 d) y X. 2 i. 1254 t. 4 y 1 y =. 4 [. = 1 8 2 (.. 8 )(. 125 )]. 3

ϕ( z) i = ϕ ( z) > 0 ( 6a) d σ( X) 2 2 ϕ( z) i 2 = ϕ ( z) 2 > 0 ( 6b) d σ ( X) σ.2 z = = 2 1. 2 (. 8)(. 125) z = = 1. 1 39 d X di y z P(y 0).0.1.2.3.4.5.6.200.187.175.162.150.138.125.120.125.131.139.150.165.188 2.00 1.87 1.75 1.62 1.50 1.38 1.25.0228.0307.0401.0526.0668.0838.1056

d Z / X 1 = = > 0 ( 7a) X Z / d i z d z = < 0 ( 7b) σ( X) i z d d = < 0 ( 7c) i 1 z

X d ji Xk d ki σ( X ) σ( X ) j k 1 Xk d ki d j [ Xj σ( Xj)] ( 8b) i σ( X ) X =. 2 X =. 22 d j j σ( X ) =. 1 σ( X ) =. 12 j i =. 125 d =. 65 1. (. )(. ) [. (. )]. 125 2 22 65 125 1. 12 k k k k 1 X di d j [ X j σ( Xj)] ( 9) i σ 1 N X = X N g= 1 1 N d = d g N g= 1 1 N σ = σ( X g) N g= 1 g N = ( 8a)

200 4 50 630 9 70 1 20 3 10 2 15 15 +10 =25 10 25 2 10 20 3 5 25 10 +20 =30 20 1 15 10 3 5 30-25

1 A 3 11 2 A B 12 10 3 2

= 100% 100 100

+ 100% 100% 100% 100% $800, 000 = 2 $400, 000 $600, 000 = 15. $400, 000 $1200, 000 = 60% $2, 000, 000

$3, 000, 000 = 15. $200, 000 $3, 000, 000 = 2 $1, 500, 000 $3, 000, 000 = 1. 3 $2, 300, 000 $120, 000 $3, 000, 000 $120, 000 $230, 000 = 4 = 5% $120, 000 = 12% $1, 000, 000

4 1 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11.

4 2 A B C

4 3 1. 19. 2. 20. 3. 21. 4. 22. 5. 23. 6. 24. 7. 25. 8. 26. 9. 27. 10. 28. 11. 29. 12. 30. 13. 31. 14. 32. 15. 33. 16. 34. 17. 35. 18. 36.

4 4 File: 110 Ba Bb B Ca1 Ca D C Ca1 Ca Aa

4 5

TQC QC QA QA Q A QAM TQC Q A Q.C.C.

4 6 H/D C/D 1 1.2. 2 1.2. 3 1. 4 1. 5 2. PH 3. 4. 1. 2.P 3.

= =

4 7 A B =1000 =250 =5 =8 A B 250 9.00 9.00 500 7.00 8.50 750 6.33 8.33 1000 6.00 8.25 2000 5.50 8.13 5000 5.20 8.05 10000 5.10 8.02

FC2 FC1 N = VC VC 1 2 800 1000 N = = 200 = 20000( ) 0. 03 0. 04 0. 01

FC B = q P VC B q $800 B q = = 200( ) $6 $2 Bsv Bsv Bsv

FC VC Q B = + ( ) p Q B p $800 + $10 200 B p = = 14( ) 200

MaxG: ER = Si( Xi) Subject to: XiSB Xi0

4 8 X (10) (8) (6) (4) (2) TEV (1) 4 8 X (2) TEV L TEVx (2) 1.0 0.1 1.0 0.1 3.0 0.3 1.0 0.1 2.0 0.5 2.0 EP EV 1.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 5.0 EP 0. 2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.2 EV 1. 6 1.6 3.2 1.6 3.2 1.6 EP 0. 5 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.5 EV 3. 0 2.4 2.2 3.0 0.6 3.0 EP 0. 2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 EV 0. 8 0.8 0.4 0.8 1.2 EP 0.1 EV 0.2 6.4 6.0 7.8 6.4 8.8 5.8 6.4 6.0 23.4 6.4 17.6 11.6 10.0 Total 71.4

R = C Q B PQ = F + VQ B B F = P V ( 1) F = Q ( 2 ) =1 i m

R1 C1 R2 C2 Ri Ci Rm Cm ω = 1 + 2 + + i + + m ( 1+ C) ( 1+ C) ( 1+ C) ( 1+ C) m Ri Ci = i ( 3) i= 1 ( 1+ C) R1 C1 R2 C2 Ri Ci Rn Cn I = 1 + I = 2 + + i + + n ( 1+ γ) ( 1 + γ ) ( 1 + γ) ( 1 + γ) = n i= 1 Ri C ω ( 1 + γ ) i i ( 4 ) γ C C γ γ γ γ

F A D Q = + + ( 5 ) B P V Q = f( P. A. D.) ( 6 ) Z P V f P A D F + A + = ( )[ (...) D ] ( 8 ) P + V Z Z Z,, P A D

Profit Z GO P rg NO P rg Risk NO σx

A B

C

E TR TR 2 S T S 12 8 12

66 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 P 1 3 5 7 9 12 16 20 110 100

( ) = = ( ) ( = ) = = ( = ) =

= 1

1 2 = + = + + + + 1 1 1 1

8 24 68 2 27 71 10 25 65 5 22 73 8 27 69 3 38 59 7 26 67 8 28 64 7 27 66 21 56 24 2 38 60 100% 100%

7 1,000 30 3,000 20

=

n ( Y Y ) ( YY ) F= 1 F 2 2 F µ = [ Y ( a + bt)] = ( Y a bt) 2 2 µ = Y na b t = 0 ( 1 ) a µ 2 = ty a t b t = 0 ( 2 ) b na + b t = Y ( 3 ) 2 a t + b t = ty ( 4 ) n + 1 2 n 2 Y a = ( 5 ) n ty b = 2 ( 6 ) t Y ty a = 2, 700 = = b = 210 540 2 = = 21 n 5 t 10 Y = 540 + 21t

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 7 1 Y t ty t 2 480 530 570 540 580 2,700 2 1 0 +1 +2 0 960 530 0 540 1160 210 4 1 0 1 4 10 1 a a 1 a a 0. 9 0. 1

2 a = n + 1 a = 2 n = + 1 0. 15

7 2 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 2 6 8.

7 3 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11 12.

MIS MIS MIS MIS MIS

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

1 2 2 4 3 2 1

A B A B C E 4B 4C 4D

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 4 16 64 256 1024 1096 4 7 4096 1365 1 6 1 8 64 512 4096 8 5 4096 585 1 4