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,,,,, 21 ( Fertility), : 6,, : 1940 :,,,, 1990 1930 : 7 8,,,, 46 :, () 1982 :,, 6 715 1982 30 000 1914 1930, 1929 1945, 90 % 3, 60 % 6 30 000, :, 617 ( 15 49 ) 1988,, 1940, 60140 % 6, 4213 % 7, 25174 % 8, 13113 % 9, 5175 % 10, 39160 %6,, 60140 %6, : 715 9, 115 3, ;,, : 6, 15 50,, 35, (Henri Leridon) 1977 23,, 317 915,, (Christopher Wilson),16 18, 14 7121 ; (Bas Christopher Wilson, Pauline Airey, How Can a Homeostatic Perspective Enhance Demographic Transition Theory? In Popula2 Zhao Zhongwei, Deliberate Birth Control under a High2Fertility Regime : Reproductive Behavior in China Before 1970. In Population 1990,,, 123 125 ; James Lee and Cameron Campbell, Fate and Fortune in Rural China : Social Organization Wilson, Christopher (ed. ), The Dictionary of Demography, pp. 156 157. 48 :,, 1947, 1998, 229, 398 399 tion Studies, 53 : 2 (1999) : 117 128 and Development Review, vol. 23, no. 4 (1997), pp. 729 767. :,, 146 171 (, 1996 ) 101 and Population Behavior in Liaoning, 1774 1873, p. 66
Quercy) 6160 ; 10102, 3, 6, 115 3,,, 19,,,, 1870, 300, 1880, 1897 1 000 19, 19,, 1873,, 178018101830 1840 1867,,, 11,,,, : ; : 46 ; : 1949 1979,,,, ;,,,, (Louis Henry) 1961 :,,,,,,,,,, 1949,,,,,,,,, : 20,,? Lee and Campbell, 1997 : 47., 123 139, 123 139 ; Stevan Harrell and Thomas Pullum, Marriage, Mortality, and Development Cycle in Three :, 701 Xiaoshan Lineages ; : ; :,, 1993, 998 999 Wilson Christopher (ed. ), The Dictionary of Demography, pp. 156 157., 130 131141 ; ::, 100 49
,, 18 19 20 %30, 40 45 10 % 15 %,, 300, 30 1 % 1 %,,, (Authur Smith) 19 30,,,,,,1034, 929, 3047, 1016, :, 1840 1949 1928 1930, 1300 300, 600,, 21, 17,, : 300,,, :,,, 200 350,,,, 14, : 16 18, 47 %, 16 18 200, 1193 ;, ; 150, 216 3 4,, 19, 1,, ;, 20,, : 1900, 163, 20 1980, 171, 18 19,,, 18, 18 19? 160?, 20 20, 313, 1900,, 1900 50 ::,, 1997, 82 :,, 1994, 174 1840 1949 (),, 2000, 235 346
16 19,, 20,,,,,, :,,,,, :,,, 20 30 :, 5713 %,,, 5 %,,,, 1920,, 82 %, 8516 %, 79 %,,, 1920, 150, 150,,,,,,, 20, ; 1950, : 1960,,, 31, :, 20,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,, 44 47 :,, 1996, 165221 :,, 1946, 386 :,, 1997, 279 281 : 40,, 510 529 44 47181212 51
,,, 5,,,,, ( ) ;,,,,,, 19,,,, :,, :, 19 40 000,, 19,,,,, 19 18 :, 1748, 43 :, 19 :,, ( Elizabeth Perry), 19, 1793 1805 1 000 18 19,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1748, : Lavely and Wong, 52 :, 1368 1968, 30 34,,,, ;,, 1791 (, 1994 ) 56 70
,,, :,,,,,,, :, 19,, 19 1850 1949, :, 100,,, 100, 1950 1980,,,, 1950,, :, 1750 2125 1950 6 12,, 1990 116, 018 1, 012 :,,,, : 13 18, ;,, ;,,,,,, :,,, 1, 7 500 1700,,,,,,, 50 ::,, 1997, 108 109 ; : :,, 1998, 257 259, 165, 113, 6 (, 2000 2001 ) 53
, 17, 18 19, 19, 1850 1949, 17,, 1950, ;,, 19, 1850 1949, 1970,,,,,,,,, ;,, ;,, 200,,,, 1956,, 200433 ;, 1953,, ( : ) 50 50 (1954 2004),,,, () ;,! : 158 : 100720 : 64070213 : 64076113 E2mail : lsyj @magazine. cass. net. cn 54