2012 4 16 ( ) : 1 : 30 (1950 1970 ) 2 : 1950 80% 85% 2% ( 0.5%) 49% 40% 30%3 1950 100 1 2 100 26 67 80 1 2 3 : 2012 4 16 7 : (1940 2001) 2003 3 : : 20

80 李 春 玲 : 80 : : (100732) 2012 1 : (1952 2002) ( ) 1952 2002 1 1997 (39.76%) ( ) ( ) 1 66 : : (1952 2002) 2012 1

2012 4 16 ( ) : 1 : 30 (1950 1970 ) 2 : 1950 80% 85% 2% ( 0.5%) 49% 40% 30%3 1950 100 1 2 100 26 67 80 1 2 3 : 2012 4 16 7 : (1940 2001) 2003 3 : : 2010 ; : : 2005

2014 4 (200620082011)1 80 (1980 1989 ) 80 ( ) 1950 1990 80 80 2858 80 98.2% ; 2807 88.8% ; 2493 52.7% ; 1315 50.6% 2858 (46%) (23.3%) 1 68 2006 2008 2011 (CGSSCASS) 28 130( ) 260( ) 520 / 21236 ( 7061 7139 7036) 2858 80 ( 2006 1989 1988 )

80 80 80 80 70 70 80 70 80 70 (10.9%) 80 (23.3%) 70 40 3.3% 50 3.6% 60 5.3% 80 80 80 ( 1) 1 (%) 1940 1949 78.6 48.9 30.0 28.4 1950 1959 82.6 65.1 31.7 21.0 1960 1969 91.8 70.5 30.9 26.7 1970 1979 94.8 75.1 36.0 42.4 1980 1989 98.2 88.8 52.7 50.6 88.9 69.4 34.6 32.2 : ( / / ); 2 80 ( ) ( ) 80 1 1 ( 1 ) 69

2014 4 2 80 (%) 16 80 0.0 3.1 0.0 3.3 0.9 5.6 1.4 8.4 3.0 2.8 0.0 3.4 0.0 3.8 1.1 6.3 1.7 8.8 3.3 2.7 0.0 8.7 3.4 9.3 4.0 14.1 6.6 15.4 8.6 1.8 / 0.0 7.5 3.7 7.9 5.9 9.7 6.5 10.3 7.4 1.4 10.9 24.0 11.1 25.6 21.4 29.5 22.5 28.0 23.8 1.2 89.1 53.3 81.7 50.1 66.7 34.8 61.3 29.1 53.9 0.5 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 16 92.2 76.2 95.2 73.8 89.8 59.4 67.3 51.7 70.3 0.7 7.8 23.8 4.8 26.2 10.2 40.6 32.7 48.3 29.7 1.6 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 : ( / / ); 80 80 1.8% (92.2%) 89.1% (7.8%) (10.9%) (95.2%) (81.7%) (4.8%) (11.1%) (7.1%) 80 80 1/10 (11%) 80 (47.3%)( 1) 89.8% 66.7% 21.4% (49.4%) 1/4 80 (23.3%) 2 80 70

80 80 3 ; 80 2 ; ; 80 80 2% 80 11% ; 3 3 80 (%) / / 16 3.5 1.2 13.6 4.5 7.4 2.5 3.4 1.1 7.4 1.1 10.6 3.9 6.9 2.1 5.6 1.7 16.4 1.5 14.7 1.7 13.8 1.6 14.7 1.7 / 10.3 1.4 10.2 1.4 10.5 1.4 8.7 1.2 31.9 1.3 23.4 1.0 24.5 1.0 34.5 1.5 30.5 0.6 27.5 0.5 36.9 0.7 33.1 0.6 100 100 100 100 16 35.9 0.5 27.4 0.4 52.0 0.7 41.3 0.6 64.1 2.2 72.6 2.4 48.0 1.6 58.7 2.0 100 100 100 100 71

2014 4 : / / 47.3% 89.8% 66.7% 21.4% ( 2)52.7% ( 1) 3 ; ; ; : ( ) ; ( ) ; 3 4.5 3.9 ; ( ) ; 72 :1949

80 logit 1 2005 1% 1975 1979 1980 1985 2 2005 80 70 4 : 80 70 (logit ) / / / 16 ( : ) 2.914 *** 0.255 2.428 *** 0.294 1.195 0.237 0.959 0.303 1.449 * 0.195 1.284 0.267 / 1.717 * 0.315 2.053 * 0.402 1.285 0.167 1.164 0.240 16 1.185 *** 0.017 1.222 *** 0.024 16 ( ) 4.732 *** 0.149 3.945 *** 0.210 1 2 RobertDenisMare SocialBackgroundandSchoolContinuationDecisions"Journal ofthe American Statistical Association vol.75no.3701980p.370; Changeand StabilityinEducationalStratification"American SociologicalReviewvol.46no.1 1981pp.72-87. : : 2010 3 73

2014 4 4 / / / 80 2.263 *** 0.208 1.943 ** 0.321 80 0.485 0.495 0.644 0.520 80 1.133 0.469 1.270 0.515 80 0.778 0.339 0.687 0.434 80 / 0.890 0.406 0.511 0.524 80 0.715 0.247 0.645 0.359 80 16 0.978 0.029 0.954 0.042 80 16 1.111 0.232 1.380 0.320 0.064 *** 0.114 0.016 *** 0.181-2loglikelihook 4132.792 2630.365 15 15 7225 7225 : : *** 0.01; ** 0.05; * 0.1; 4 2 logit 80 70 ; 80 70 80 70 80 70 4 70 / / / 2.9 1.4 / 1.7 ( ) 1 19% 74

4.7 80 / / / 70 80 70 70 / 2.4 / 2.1 1 22%( ) 4 80 70 4 80 80 ( ) 4 3 2 3 2 ( ) 4 3 2 / 4 / 4 4 3 2 ( )1 ; 75 80 1 ( : (1949 2003) 2007 6 )

80 1. 30 ( ) 1 80 2. 80 4 4.7 ; 80 ( ) 3. ; 76 2014 4 1 : (1940 2001) 2003 3

( ) 4. 80 80 ; 90 80 90 80 5. 1977 ; : : 77 80