热 带 海 洋 学 报 JOURNAL OF TROPICAL OCEANOGRAPHY 海 洋 水 文 学 doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-5470.2012.04.002 2012 年 第 31 卷 第 4 期 : 8 16 http://www.jto.ac.cn 钦 州 湾 台 风 浪 的 多 年 一 遇 极 值 推 算 1, 2, 江 丽 芳 3, 尹 毅 1, 齐 义 泉 1, 张 志 旭 1 1. (), 510301; 2., 100049; 3., 510301 : WAVEWATCH (WW3) SWAN 1949 2005, (P- )(T m ),, P-,,,,,, C 1,,, : ; ; (P- ) ; 中 图 分 类 号 : P731 文 献 标 识 码 : A 文 章 编 号 : 1009-5470(2012)04-0008-09 The extreme wave parameters in the Qinzhou Bay during typhoon passages JIANG Li-fang 1, 2, 3, YIN Yi 1, QI Yi-quan 1, ZHANG Zhi-xu 1 1. State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography (South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences), Guangzhou 510301, China; 2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 3. South China Sea Marine Prediction Center, State Oceanic Administration, Guangzhou 510310, China Abstract: This study uses the WAVEWATCH- (WW3)and SWAN to simulate typhoon waves, which have greater influence on the Qinzhou Bay, The simulations are for the period during 1949 2005. Based on the simulation, the authors the Pearson (P- ) method to calculate the extreme wave parameters for return periods in deep water outside the Qinzhou Bay. They also simulate the typhoon waves that have greater influence on the Qinzhou Bay under the condition of high tide with return period of 100 years and under the condition of high tide with return period of 100 years plus storm surge with return period of 100 years in the Qinzhou Bay. The P- is again used to calculate the extreme wave parameters for the return periods of the statistical points in the inner Qinzhou Bay in these simulations. The result shows that because of many shallow basins in the Qinzhou Bay, the wave energy is lost significantly due to the bottom friction during the wave propagation, the wave height in the bay mouth is bigger than that in the inner Bay, The physical processes including the wave dissipation and wave transformation are more intense in the inner Qinzhou Bay. The statistical point C 1 is near the shore, so its wave parameter is the smallest. The maximum wave height rapidly weakens shoreward and spreads along the eastern shoreline. Under the condition of extreme weather, the ocean wave is breaking and the wave height is damped significantly during the wave propagation process. Key words: Qinzhou Bay; wave model; P- method; extreme for return period 收 稿 日 期 2010-12-27; 修 订 日 期 : 2011-03-07 基 金 项 目 : ( 973 )(2011CB013701); ( 863 )(2008AA09A404-3) 作 者 简 介 : 1983 E-mail lifangjiang@scsio.ac.cn
: 9, ( ) ( ),,,,,, 3,, [1], Boussinesq, 50, ; Boussinesq, [2], [1],,,, 1985 2005, 0.56m, 3.52m 1.92m( 85 1.99m) 0.8 1.00m, 1.50m, 2m [3],,,, WAVEWATCH (WW3) SWAN 1949 2005 ;, (P- ) (T m ) ;, P- 1 1.1 WAVEWATCH (WW3) [4-5] SWAN, [4-9] WW3 NOAA/NCEP Delft Goddard WAVEWATCH [10-11] WAVEWATCH [12] SWAN Delft [13-14] WW3 SWAN, WW3 JONSWAP, SWAN WW3,, SWAN,, WAM WW3 [15] ; SWAN, [16],,,, WW3 WAM, SWAN, WW3 WAM SWAN [17] 1.2,, 1)
10 Vol. 31, No. 4 / Jul., 2012,, 105 30 112 E 15 23 N( 1a), 0.05 0.05 2),,, 106 30 110 E 20 48 22 N( 1b), 1000m 3), 108 24 108 48 E 21 30 21 48 N ( 1c), 100m WW3 SWAN 25, 0.041 0.412Hz, 15 85, WW3 5 85 WW3, SWAN, SWAN 1949 2005, 1 a.,, ; b.,, (S1 S4) ; c., (C1 C4),, Fig. 1 Topography of the model domain and the path of typhoon. a) Topography of the Beibu Gulf, with the blue frame showing the second model domain and the red frame presenting the third model domain. The green, yellow, and magenta dotted-dashes lines present the passages of Typhoon Mekkhala, Typhoon Yutu, and Typhoon Durian, respectively. b) Topography of the second model domain, with the blue star for the location of the Marine Station in the Weizhou Island and the magenta stars (S1 S4) for the locations of the deep water outside the Qinzhou Bay. c) Topography of the third model domain, with the magenta dot (C1 C4) for the location of the point in the Qinzhou Bay 1.3 1.3.1 风 场 数 据 (NCEP) (NCAR), 192, 94, 6h [18], NCEP/NCAR
: 11 [19] NCEP/NCAR, (http://www.typhoon.gov.cn), NCEP/NCAR, Holland [20],, WW3 SWAN 1.3.2 实 测 数 据,, (21 0 36 N, 109 4 12 E) 2001 Durian() 2001 Yutu() 2002 Mekkhala( ) 1.4,, (P- ) [21], [22] [23] :, P- P- P- [21] : d y /d x = ( x+ d) y/( b + b x+ b x ) (1) 0 1 2 d ; b 0 b 1 b 2,,, [23] : 4 1 * HF = H 1+ H lnf π 2π 2 * 1 H 2 (2) H F F, H, H*, H /d, F,, [23], 2a c 2001 2002 WW3 SWAN 2,, 2001 7 2,, 2.61m, 2.70m, 6h;, 7 23 7 31,, 2.59m, 2.60m,, 6h;,, 9 25 28,, 0.07m, 0.91, 3.41m, 3.30m,,, 2, 2001 2002 2 (a) (b)(c) (H m ) Fig. 2 Comparisons between the maximum wave heights from the models and the observations during the three typhoons passages
12 Vol. 31, No. 4 / Jul., 2012, Holland,, 3 [24],,,, [25-28],, WW3 SWAN 1949 2005, P-, [29] P-,, 1 (S1 S4) [22] [1] ; 表 1 钦 州 湾 湾 外 深 水 处 统 计 点 及 钦 州 湾 湾 内 统 计 点 的 位 置 Tab. 1 Location of the deep water points outside the Qinzhou Bay and the engineering point in the Qinzhou Bay /m /m (85 ) S1 108 48 E 21 16 48 N 20 C1 108 33 58 E 21 39 57 E 3.1 S2 108 36 E 21 21 22 N 20 C2 108 34 55 E 21 27 16 E 7.8 S3 108 24 E 21 24 1 N 20 C3 108 34 33 E 21 38 42 E 6.3 S4 108 12 E 21 16 15 N 20 C4 108 35 4 E 21 40 47 E 8.8 3.1 WW3 SWAN 20m H 1% H 4% H 13% 8 (5 10 25 50 100 ), 20m, 4 H 1% H 13% 50 100 ( 2) 2.2, P- 2 20m 4 H 1% H 13% 50 100, 50 100,, S4 S1 50 100, H 1% H 13% 7.0m 5.0m 8.7s S4 S1, 3 0.1 0.2m, 0.1s S2 S3 4, 0.1m, 0.1s, 20m 100 5.1m, H 1% H 13% 50 6.4m 4.5m, H 1% H 13% 100 6.9m 4.9m; 50 100 8.3s 8.6s
: 13 表 2 钦 州 湾 湾 外 20m 水 深 处 波 浪 要 素 的 多 年 一 遇 极 值 Tab. 2 The extreme wave parameters for return periods of the points at 20-m depth outside the Qinzhou Bay 50 100 20m SW S SE E SW S SE E H 1% /m 4.9 5.7 5.8 6.4 5.7 6.2 6.3 7.0 S1 H 13% /m 3.4 4.0 4.1 4.5 4.0 4.3 4.4 5.0 T m /s 7.5 7.8 7.9 8.3 7.8 8.1 8.2 8.7 H 1% /m 4.9 5.4 5.8 6.2 5.3 5.8 6.2 6.6 S2 H 13% /m 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.3 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.7 T m /s 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.1 7.5 7.9 8.1 8.4 H 1% /m 4.9 5.5 6.0 6.0 5.3 6.0 6.5 6.6 S3 H 13% /m 3.4 3.9 4.3 4.3 3.7 4.3 4.6 4.7 T m /s 7.3 7.7 8.0 8.0 7.5 8.0 8.3 8.4 H 1% /m 5.2 5.5 6.0 6.4 5.7 6.0 6.5 7.0 S4 H 13% /m 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.0 4.3 4.6 5.0 T m /s 7.5 7.7 8.0 8.3 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.7 50 100,, H 1% H 13% 100 6.8m 4.9m, 50 100 8.3s 8.7s, H 1% H 13% 3.2 3.2.1 百 年 一 遇 高 潮 水 位 情 况 下 的 累 积 频 率 波 高 和 平 均 波 周 期 的 多 年 一 遇 极 值 的 推 算,,,,, [3] 0.50 0.99m, 35.1% 49.5% 1993, 2m 0.80m 1.00m, 1.50m, 2m [3] 1985 2005, 3.52m 1.92m, 0.56m,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 10,, 4 3 4 C2, H 1% 5.0m, C4, C1 4, C2 C3,
14 Vol. 31, No. 4 / Jul., 2012 ; C4 C1, 4 H 1% H 13%,, C2 C4 0.3 0.4m, C4 C3 0.3 0.4m, C3 C1 0.2 0.4m, C1 H 1% H 13% 50 4.5m 3.3m, H 1% H 13% 100 4.7m 3.5m C1 50 100 6.4s 6.5s 4 50 100 6 6.5s, C1 C3, 50 6.0s, 100 6.2s 6.1s, C2 3, C2 3, ; C4 C2, C4 C2 ; C1,, 3.1m, ; C2 C3, ; C4 C1,,,,,, 表 3 统 计 点 在 百 年 一 遇 高 潮 水 位 下 的 累 积 波 高 和 平 均 周 期 的 多 年 一 遇 极 值 Tab. 3 The extreme wave parameters for return periods of the points during the high tide with return period of 100 years C1 C2 C3 C4 50 100 SW S SE E SW S SE E H 1% /m 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.8 H 13% /m 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.8 T m /s 5.3 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.3 5.5 5.8 5.9 H 1% /m 3.7 3.9 4.6 4.5 3.9 4.6 4.9 4.8 H 13% /m 2.6 2.8 3.3 3.2 2.8 2.9 3.6 3.5 T m /s 5.7 5.8 6.3 6.2 5.8 5.9 6.5 6.5 H 1% /m 3.3 3.4 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.6 4.2 4.1 H 13% /m 2.3 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.6 3.0 2.9 T m /s 5.4 5.5 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.7 6.1 6.0 H 1% /m 3.4 3.7 4.1 4.1 3.7 3.8 4.4 4.5 H 13% /m 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.2 T m /s 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.0 5.7 5.7 6.1 6.2 3.2.2 百 年 一 遇 高 潮 和 百 年 一 遇 风 暴 潮 增 水 和 台 风 浪 同 时 发 生 下 的 波 浪 要 素 多 年 一 遇 极 值 的 推 算,,, P- 10 8, 4 4 4, 4, C2, H 1% 100 5.8m, C4, C1 4 H 1% H 13%, C2 C4 0.3 0.4m, C4 C3 0.3 0.4m, C3 C1 0.2 0.4m, C4 H 1% H 13% 50 5.5m 4.0m, 100 5.8m 4.2m 4 50 100 6.4 7.1s, C1 50 100 6.4s 6.5s, C1 C4, C1 H 1% H 13% 100 4.7m 3.5m, C4 H 1% H 13% 100 5.3m 3.8m; C2 C3,
: 15 C2 H 1% H 13% 5.7m 4.1m, C3 H 1% H 13% 100 5.1m 3.7m,, C2 C3, 0.1m, 0.1s 表 4 统 计 点 在 百 年 一 遇 高 潮 叠 加 百 年 一 遇 风 暴 潮 增 水 条 件 下 的 波 浪 要 素 多 年 一 遇 的 统 计 结 果 Tab. 4 The extreme wave parameters for return periods of the points during the condition of high tide with return period of 100 years and storm surge with return period of 100 years C1 C2 C3 C4 50 100 SW S SE E SW S SE E H 1% /m 3.6 3.7 4.3 4.4 3.7 4.0 4.5 4.7 H 13% /m 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.2 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.5 T m /s 5.7 5.7 6.1 6.2 5.7 5.9 6.3 6.5 H 1% /m 4.3 4.5 5.4 5.3 4.5 4.7 5.7 5.7 H 13% /m 3.1 3.2 3.9 3.8 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.1 T m /s 6.1 6.1 6.8 6.7 6.1 6.3 7.0 7.0 H 1% /m 3.8 4.1 4.8 4.6 4.1 4.2 5.1 5.0 H 13% /m 2.7 2.9 3.4 3.3 2.9 3.0 3.7 3.6 T m /s 5.7 5.9 6.4 6.3 5.9 6.0 6.6 6.5 H 1% /m 4.0 4.2 4.9 4.9 4.2 4.5 5.2 5.3 H 13% /m 2.8 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.2 3.7 3.8 T m /s 5.8 6.0 6.5 6.5 6.0 6.1 6.6 6.7, C2, C4, C1, C1 H 1% H 13% 4.7m 4.1m, C1 C4, C1 H 1% H 13% 100 4.7m 3.5m, C2 C3 4 WW3 SWAN 1949 2005 ; P- ; 1949 2005, 1949 2005,, WW3 SWAN 20m 5.1m,,, H 1% H 13% 50 6.4m 4.5m, H 1% H 13% 100 6.9m 4.9m; 50 100 8.3s 8.6s, C1 3.0m, H 1% H 13% 3.8m 2.8m, 3 C1 C4, C2 C3, C1 50 100 3.5m 3.7m, H 1% H 13% 4.7m 3.5m C1 C4, C2 C3,,, 0.1m, 0.1s,,,,, C1,,,
16 Vol. 31, No. 4 / Jul., 2012, [1]. [J]., 2007, 10(5): 8-16. [2],,. [J]., 2003, 20(1): 52-59. [3],,. [M]. :, 2001: 67-71. [4] TOLMAN H L, BALASUBRAMANIYAN B, BURROUGHS L D, et al. Development and implementation of wind generated ocean surface wave models at NCEP [J]. Weather and Forecasting, 2002, 17 (2) : 311-333. [5] TOLMAN H L. User manual and system documentation of WACEWATCH version 2. 22[R]. Washington, USA: NOAA/NWS/NCEP, 2002: 1-139. [6] TOLMAN H L. Validation of a new global wave forecast system at NCEP [M]. Washington, USA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 1998: 777-786. [7] WINGEART K M, REILLY W C, HERBERS T H C, et al. Validation of operational global wave prediction models with spectral buoy data[m]. Washington, USA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 2001: 590-599. [8] RIS R C, HOLTHUIJSEN L H, BOOIJ N. A third-generation wave model for coastal regions 2.Verfication[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 1999, 104(C4): 7667-7681. [9] ROGERS W E, KAIHATU, J M, HSU L, et al. Forecasting and hindcasting waves with the SWAN model in the Southern California Bight[J]. Coastal Engineering, 2007, 54: 1-15. [10] TOLMAN H L. The numerical model WAVEWATCH: A third generation model for the hindcasting of wind waves on tides in shelf seas[r]//communication on hydraulic and geotechnical engineering. Delhi: Delhi University of Technology., 1989, Report No.89-2. [11] HOLTHUIJSEN L H, TOLMAN H L. Effects of the gulf stream on ocean waves[j]. Journal of Geophysical. Research, 1991, 96(C7): 12755 12771. [12] TOLMAN H L. Effects of numerics on the physics in a third-generation wind-wave model[j]. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 1992, 22: 1095-1111. [13] BOOIJ N, HOLTHUIJSEN L H, RIS R C. The SWAN wave model for shallow water[c]// Proceeding of 24th international conference on coastal engineering. Orlando, 1996: 668-676. [14] BOOIJ N, RIS R C, HOLTHUUSEN L H. A third-generation wave model for coastal region.part : Model description and validation[j]. J. Geophys.Res, 1999, 104(C4): 7649-7666. [15],,,. [J]., 2007, 26(1): 1-8. [16],. [M]. :, 1985: 127-141. [17],,. WaveWatch SWAN [J]., 2006, 24(2): 228-237. [18] KALNAY E, KANAMITSU M, KUSTKER R, et al. The NCEP/ NCAR 40-year reannalisis project[j]. Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 1996, 77(3): 437-471. [19] JOSEY S A, KENT E C, TAYLOR P K. Wind stress forcing of the ocean in the SOC climatology: comparisons with the NCEP-NCAR, ECMWF, UWM/COADS, and Hellerman and Rosenstein Datasets[J]. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 2002, 32: 1993-2019. [20] HOLLAND G J. An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes[j]. Mon Wea Rev, 1980, 108: 421-427. [21]. [M]. :, 1991: 124-131. [22],,. [J]., 2004, 21(2): 248-253. [23]. [S]. :, 2004: 4-50. [24],. [M]. :, 2005: 43-49. [25],,. [J]., 2003, 33(5): 657-664 [26] PAN J. Discussion on long series distribution of yearly maximum waves[j]. Ocean Engineering, 1983, 2 (1): 9-37. [27]. [J]., 1983, (2): 29-37. [28] HU J, JIANG H. The research on forecasting climate extreme value by Gumbell method[j]. Journal of Ocean University of Qingdao, 1993, 23(1): 43-51. [29],,. [R]. :, 2010: 1-378.