Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics The Graduate School College of Civil Aviation Research and Development on Revenue Management Forecasting System A Thesis in Transportation Engineering by Zhang Jiancheng Advised by Zhu Jinfu Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Engineering January, 2005
I
II
...I ABSTRACT... II...III...V...VI...1 1.1...1 1.1.1... 2 1.1.2... 2 1.2...4 1.2.1... 4 1.2.2... 4 1.2.3... 7 1.3...9 1.4...9...11 2.1...11 2.2...12 2.2.1... 12 2.2.2... 13 2.2.3... 13 2.3...13 2.3.1... 13 2.3.2... 14 2.3.3... 15 2.3.4... 15 2.3.5... 16 OLAP...19 3.1...19 3.1.1... 19 3.1.2... 20 3.2...20 3.2.1... 20 3.2.2... 21 3.2.3... 22 3.2.4... 25 3.2.5... 26 3.2.6... 28 3.2.7... 28 3.3 OLAP...29 3.3.1 OLAP... 29 3.3.2 OLAP... 29 III
...32 4.1...32 4.1.1... 32 4.1.2... 33 4.2...33 4.2.1... 33 4.2.2... 34 4.2.3... 36 4.3...36 4.3.1 No-Show... 36 4.3.2 Go-Show... 39 4.3.3... 39 4.3.4... 41 4.4...42 4.4.1... 42 4.4.2... 42 4.4.3... 46 4.5...46 4.5.1... 46 4.5.2... 47 4.5.3... 47 4.6...50...51 5.1...51 5.2...51...53...54...55 IV
V
VI
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
µ δ µ δ [ µ 3 δ, µ + 3δ ] 28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
y y 1 y2 y3 e = y y 1 1 e = y y 2 2 e = y y 3 3 37
α1, α2, α3 e1 α1= e2 α2= e3 α3 α1+ α2+ α3= 1 e2 e3 α1 = e1 e2+ e2 e3+ e1 e3 e1 e3 α2 = e1 e2+ e2 e3+ e1 e3 e1 e2 α3 = e1 e2+ e2 e3+ e1 e3 (4.1) $y $ y= y α + y α + y α (4.2) 1 1 2 2 3 3 yt a byt T = + (4.3) yt = a+ byt 7 1 1 a = yt b yt 7 = yt byt 7 n n n yt 7 t ( t 7)( t) yt 7 yt 7 yt y y y y t b = = 2 2 2 n yt ( yt 7 ) ( yt 7 yt 7 ) ( )( ) yt = a+ byt 7 (4.4) 38
39 t e y ts α ± (4.5) t y t α α e S α
40 µ δ 2 1 exp 2 ( ) 2 x f x π = ( ) () x F x ftdt =
K = δ = µ L = D = n i= 1 µ = n X i (4.6) 2 1/ 2 n n 2 1 X i X1 i= 1 n i= 1 δ = (4.7) n 1 K = δ (4.8) µ 1 1 1 1 L = ( D 1) F KDf + 1 KD K KD K (4.9) Sp = CD ( L) (4.10) 41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56