313 2012 3 GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH Vol.31No.3 Mar.2012 ( 210046) :21 1980~2010 : ; ; ; : ; ; ; ; ; :1000-0585(2012)03-0507-14 1 1960 : OPEC ;2010 9.55% 12.22% [1] 18.66%; 6% 2010 19.53% 21.58% 1956 [1~3] ;1990 2003 [5~7] ;2001 [78] [37] ; :2011-04-21; :2011-09-02 : (40971289); (20093207110010); : (1981-) E-mail:lisahul@163.com
508 31 2000 2010 1 17.17% 2 [1011] [112~16] ; [17~21] [22~26] ; [27~31] ; ; ; 2 1980 2010 30 2.1 (1) [32] (M) (F U ) (F L ) (Min) (Max) (Box) ; (d F ) (Box) 50% ;F U +3/2d F F L -3/2d F (outliercutofs) ; (F U +3/2d F F U +3d F ) 1 [9] 2 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy2011
3 : 509 (F L-3d F F L-3/2d F ) (mildoutliers) F U +3d F F L-3d F (extremeoutliers) * ( 1) [3233] ( ) ( 1) [3233] 1 Fig.1 Boxplotsofasetof positivelyskeweddata ArcView GIS (2) ArcView GIS Jenk (Natural Break) ( ~ ) (3) = /
510 31 ; ; 1 2.2 1980 2010 BPStatisticalReview of WorldEnergy2011 7.35 =1t; ; 1990 2008 (EnergyStatisticsDatabaseht- tp://data.un.org/data.aspx d=edata&f=cmid%3acr%3btrid%3a04) 3 ( 1~ 3 2~ 6) 3.1 2 2010 1980 ~ ; 2 Fig.2 Boxplotsandgradingofworldoilprovedreserves : I- ; I- ; I- ;IV- ;V-
3 : 511 1 Tab.1 Statisticalindicatorsintheboxplotsofworldoilsupplies /Mt /Mt /Mt 1980 2010 1980 2010 1980 2010 1990 2008 (FU ) 2272.11 4031.4 84.82 110.46 33.27 36.89 59.59 74.47 (M) 337.96 768.71 15 38.88 20.7 21.11 19.11 15.95 (FL) 132.50 238.61 8.9 12.34 14.16 15.27 7.37 5.56 2139.61 3792.79 75.92 98.12 19.11 21.62 52.22 68.91 (df=fu -FL) 4137.41 6315.92 131.07 203.23 52.72 53.66 110.78 113.83 (NOMax) 0.06 57.82 0.29 3.2 7.00 4.28 0.92 0.89 (NOMin) (FU -M) 1934.15 3262.69 69.82 71.58 12.57 15.78 40.48 58.52 2 Tab.2 IntervaldistributionofAfricancountriesintheboxplotsofworldoilsupplies 1980 2010 1980 2010 1980 2010 1990 2008 / / / / / / / [FU NOMax] [MFU ) * ( ) * * * * [FLM) ( ) * ( ) * / ( ) ( ) * ( ) * ( ) [NOMinFL) * * * ( ) / : / * 3 Tab.3 Thenumberofcountriesofeachgradeindiferentpaternsofworldoilsupply /Mt /Mt /Mt 1980 2010 1980 2010 1980 2010 1990 2008 1 2 3 3 3 1 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 5 12 4 6 6 6 11 0 0 2 0 1 1 2 3 5 6 6 11 12 9 8 6 1 2 2 4 5 4 2 1 7 12 16 13 19 29 10 14 2 3 3 2 1 6 4 4
512 31 ( 2) 1980 ~ 31.66% 0.79; 2010 44.86% 1.12 ~ 0.86 0.97 1.13 1.07 ( 4a) - ( 2) 1980 7.54% 2010 8.73% 3.2 ( 2 3) ~ ; 3 Fig.3 Boxplotsandgradingofworldoilproduction
3 : 513 4 Fig.4 Rankeddistributionpaternsofworldoilsupply ~ ~ ( 2) 1980 ~
514 31 ~ ~ 90.66% ( ) ~ ~ 2010 ~ ( 0.99) ~ OPEC ~ ~ ( 0.88 1.21) ( ) 1.15 0.92 ( 4b) 1980 2010 ~ ~ 37 31 ; ; 1.13 ; 12.65 ; 3.3 ( 2 5)
3 : 515 ~ 2010 ( 2) 5 1980 ~ Fig.5 BoxplotsandgradingofworldoilR/Pratio ~ 30 ~ ( 4c) ~ ;
516 31 3.4 ( 2 3 5 6) ~ 6 Fig.6 Boxplotsandgradingofworldoilexports ( 2) 1990 0.87 ; 36.51% ~ ; 2008 ( ~ 0.93 1.01 0.87 1.02) ( 4a 4c 4d); ( 4b 4d) 2008
3 : 517 ; ; 15.74% 17.73% 4 4.1 (1) 1980~2010 ; ( ) ; - (2) ; (3) 2008 72.47% 1 1 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy2011
518 31 (4) 2010 73.25% 59.79% 75.14% (2008 ) 1 4.2 (1) [34] [518] ( ) (2) ; 2010 10.41% 2010 4.3% [34] 1 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy2011
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520 31 [25]. 20071(3):88~82. [26]. 200716(3):16~22. [27] BahgatG.Thegeopoliticsofenergy:EuropeandNorthAfrica.TheJournalofNorth AfricanStudies201015 (1):39~49. [28] Bradshaw MJ.Thegeopoliticsofglobalenergysecurity.GeographyCompass20093(5):1920~1937. [29]. :. : 1998. [30]. 200931(8):7~13. [31]. 200729(1):172~177. [32].Boxplot. 2003(1):34~35. [33] HoaglinDCMostelerF.. : 1998. [34].. 200322(3):297~304. [35] LeBP.OilandarmedconflictsinAfrica.AfricanGeographicalReview201029(1):63~90. [36]..htp://blog.caing.com/article.php itemid=16497&preview=8882011-03-22. [37]..htp://ng.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/slfw/200503/ 20050300028329.html2005-03-23. [38]..201116(1):19~23. [39]. 2007(2):35~42. [40]. 2008(9):67~69. Africa'spositionshiftinworldoilsupplypatern HAO Li-shaZHAO Yuan (SchoolofGeographicalScienceNanjingNormalUniversityNanjing210046China) Abstract:Inthe21stcenturyAfricahasbeenastrategicplaceformajoroilimportersseekingto diversifyimportsinordertoachievegreateroilsecurityandalsoafricahasbeenthesecondbig- gestsourceforchinasothatanalysesofafrica'spositionshiftinworldoilsupplypaterncould helpustogetabeterunderstandingofafrica'sadvantagesanddisadvantagesintheoilsupplyin ordertooptimizechina'sstrategyforoilcooperationwithafrica.inthispaperboxplotsandspa- tialclusteranalysisareintegratedtogetherwith modifiedshareandrankanalysistoexamine andcompareafrica'spositionsandtheirshiftinthepaternsofworldoilprovedreservesoilpro- ductionreserves-to-productionratioandexports.theresultsshowthatafricaisthe most concentratedareaofoilsupplyingcountriesbesidesmiddleeastandwiththesupersessionofthe oldbythenewitsoveralsupplypositionisrelativelysteadyorevenpromoted;africa'srelative advantagesinworldoilsupplypaternareitshighreserves-to-productionratioandhighexport ratiosothatitisoneofthekeyareastoprovidesustainedgrowthofoilproductionandexportin thefuture;africahasgradualypenetratedtheworld'sheartlandofoilsupplyanditsoilgeopo- liticalimportanceisenhancedgreatly;inthelong-termperspectiveafricawilstilbeoneofthe majoroilsourcesforchinaandchinashouldpromotediversestrategiestoafricaandenterafri- ca'scoreoilmarketinordertoenlargesupplyandachieveriskdiversification. Keywords:Africa;oilsupply;positionshift;boxplots;spatialclusteranalysis;oilcooperation