32 6 2008 11 Vol1 32, No16 November 2008 18 Population Research 30 3 30, 30,,,, : ; ; ; ;, :100872 30,,30,,,,, 30,, 1, 1970, 6, 1. 6 ( 1),, 1 :1950 2007 :. 2005. ;1990 3 (06JJD840016) (05JJD840146)
6 30 19, 70 ;, 90,, :, ( Freedman,1995) 1970 5. 8, 7,, 1977 2. 8 1980 90, 80,,,,1982 1988 1990 ;,,,90,,,, 1990 2. 31, 2000 1. 22 90, 2000, 2000, 2000, 1. 6 1. 8 (, 2002) 90, 10 2000 2005 1 %, 2000 1. 5,2001 1. 4 ( 2) 2 1991 : (2008) ; (2007), 1991 1999,2000 ; 2000 2005 1 %, 15 ( 2), 1991, 90 1. 7,2002 1. 6 (,2008),, 2000, 90 (
20 32,2007), 1992,,1999 1. 69, 2000,, 2000 2000 2007,, 2000 2007 1. 59 1. 66 ( 2),, 1992, 15, 2000, ( 1. 5 ), ;,, (United Nations,1992 2003),,, 1990 (,2004), 1980 1990 2000 (,2005),,,,, 1980, ; 1970, 1990,, 1980,, 1990, 1980,, 2000,,90,, 2,,, 3, 3 :1964 2007 :.. :, 1972 3 1994 ; 2000 2007, 1989 0. 5, 2007 0. 05 1972 2007,,,,,,, 2007 3 %, 70 %
6 30 21 70, ; 90, ( 4) 1,, 24 34, 10 70, 6. 4,,2000 5 2007 23. 5 30. 5, 7,, 2000 2007,30, 15 % 30 %, 4 :1964 2007 :.. :,1994 ; 2000 2007 1 :1964 2007 1964 1972 1979 1989 2000 2007 23. 59 24. 06 23. 78 22. 18 22. 46 23. 47 34. 31 33. 82 30. 22 28. 06 27. 47 30. 51 10. 72 9. 76 6. 44 5. 88 5. 01 7. 04 : 4 5, 70, 21, ;70,,, 2,1979 23 80 1, 22 90,, 2005 23. 5, 1990 1. 5 5,1950 2005 : 2005 1 %
22 32, 22 23 1970 1980, 22. 8 25. 3, 2. 5 80, 1. 7 90,,1990 2000 1,2000 2007 2,2007 26. 6 ( 6), 4 90, 4 2002, 4,, ( 6) 1970 2000, 25. 3 28. 8, 3. 5 2000 2007 2. 3 2000 4,2007 4. 5, 90, 2000,, 6,1964 2007 :1981 1 ;1990 2000 ;2007, 80 20,,,, 103 107, 20 80,, 1982 107. 6 1990 111. 3,2000 116. 9, 2007 120. 2, ( 7),,1990,,, 20,, 2000, 2005,,,
6 30 23 7 :1955 2007 :1955 1975 ;1982 1 %,,, 2005 1 %,,,,, 90,,,, 3,, 20,1965 10,1977 7 30, 6 7 30, 70,80,80, 5 ( 8),,30,,, 5, 2003 6. 40 2007 6. 93, 2008 7, 6 7,, ( 8),, ;,, 8,2003,
24 32 8 :1977 2007 :. 2006. ;2007 4,, 70, 1996 70,, ( Caldwell, 1986) 35 1957 56,1970 64 1981 68 (,1994),, Banister (1987) 1957 50,1970 60,1981 65,,, :,, 40 50 70,,, ;,, 50 150 1970 80 1980 50, 50 20,60 70 10 (Banister,2007),, 70,,,,,,, 4 7 2000 71,2005 73 ( 70 ) 2000 32 2007 15 (,2008) 5
6 30 25,, ;,, ;,, ;,, ;,,,,,,,, 5 ;,,,,, 2 :1957 2006 1957 1963 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2006 5. 2 8. 6 18. 8 19. 6 20. 3 21. 9 21. 9 24. 4 27. 3 5. 5 6. 9 21. 6 23. 4 21. 0 20. 8 22. 2 21. 3 17. 1 6. 6 6. 7 19. 5 22. 9 23. 4 15. 8 15. 3 17. 7 17. 7 16. 9 12. 0 10. 8 9. 0 9. 1 15. 8 15. 7 13. 3 13. 1 2. 7 3. 0 4. 0 5. 0 5. 8 6. 9 6. 9 5. 9 6. 1 7. 3 5. 8 4. 9 3. 9 4. 2 4. 0 3. 3 3. 1 2. 9 2. 0 1. 6 1. 6 1. 6 1. 6 1. 5 1. 4 4. 1 2. 6 0. 9 0. 9 0. 9 7. 5 6. 8 3. 6 2. 1 1. 8 1. 2 0. 5 0. 4 ( ) 7. 9 4. 0 2. 2 1. 5 1. 4 1. 7 0. 7 0. 8 63. 7 56. 4 87. 4 88. 9 88. 6 89. 7 87. 8 89. 3 87. 7 17. 5 14. 7 15. 2 17. 5 17. 3 18. 3 25. 1 13. 5 17. 1 15. 6 16. 2 16. 7 18. 7 20. 4 18. 0 25. 8 25. 5 10. 8 9. 6 11. 9 13. 9 12. 9 12. 0 12. 3 24. 8 26. 2 23. 1 16. 4 3. 6 2. 8 7. 2 10. 7 11. 3 10. 6 8. 9 6. 8 5. 3 5. 5 5. 0 4. 7 3. 9 3. 3 1. 5 1. 4 1. 5 1. 3 1. 5 1. 3 0. 5 0. 8 4. 8 3. 2 3. 7 1. 9 1. 6 1. 2 0. 5 ( ) 3. 5 2. 8 2. 1 1. 8 1. 3 0. 8 0. 7 82. 1 85. 1 87. 1 90. 2 90. 0 90. 5 91. 3 : Zhao Zhongwei. 2007. Changing Mortality Patterns and Causes of Death, in Z. Zhao and F. (eds. ), Transition and Challenge : China s Population at the Beginning of the 21st Century. Oxford : Oxford University Press ;. 2006, 2 50 1957,, 50 %, 17 %, 15 % 1975,,70 % Guo
26 32,,,, 1980 80 %,2000,, 70, 70,, 20,,,, 2000, 2006,,,, U, J,, J ;, U, U J, J, J ( 9) 9, 50 70,, 80,,, 9 :1950 2005 :.,, :,1993 ;1982 1990 2000 ;2005 1 %, ;,, 50,
6 30 27, 3,, 80,1981 50 20 1981,, 2005, 4. 3, 5. 2, 1982 3 2005 3. 7 3 :1950 2005-1950 54 48. 00 46. 70 49. 20 2. 50 1970 74 64. 10 63. 20 65. 20 2. 00 1981 67. 81 66. 40 69. 25 2. 85 1989 68. 55 66. 84 70. 47 3. 63 2000 71. 40 69. 63 73. 33 3. 70 2005 72. 58 70. 72 74. 45 3. 73 :.,, :,1993 ;1982 1990 2000 ;2005 1 %, ( ), 1, 1. 1 1. 8 10 50,,,,, U, 50, 0. 8 1. 2,1981 1 1. 4, 2005 1. 2 2. 4 (5 ),, 50 80,0 1. 1, 1981 0. 7 0. 8,,1 4 60 1,,,,2005 20 44, 200, 2 6,,,,, 25, 1. 35, 2040 9 10, 2005 1. 5, 8,,,,,,,
28 32 10 :1950 2005 :.,, :,1993 ;1982 1990 2000 ;2005 1 %, 2005 65 1, 2026 2,2036 3 (,2005) 2029 65 0 14,,,,,,, 21,, 2020,20 45 3000 2005,,, 80 90,, 2010,,,, : 1 Banister, J udith. 1987. China s Changing Pop ulation. California : Stanford University Press 2 Banister, J udith. 2007. Poverty, Progress, and Rising Life Expectancy, in Z. Zhao and F. Guo (eds. ), T ransition and Challenge : China s Population at the B eginning of the 21st Century. Oxford : Oxford University Press
6 30 29 3 Caldwell, John C. 1986. Routes to Low Mortality in Poor Countries. Population and Development Review 12,No. 2 4 Freedman, Ronald. 1995. Asia s Recent Fertility Decline and Prospect s for Future Demographic Change. A sia - Paci f ic Pop ulation Research Re ports, N o. 1. Program on Population, East - West Center 5 United Nations. 1992. Patterns of Fertilit y in L ow - f ertilit y Settings. Sales No. E. 92. XIII. 11 6 United Nations. 2003. Partnershi p and Rep roductive B ehaviour in L ow - Fertilit y Count ries. ESA/ P/ WP. 177 7 Zhao Zhongwei. 2007. Changing Mortality Patterns and Causes of Death, in Z. Zhao and F. Guo (eds. ), T ransi2 tion and Challenge : China s Population at the B eginning of the 21st Century. Oxford : Oxford University Press 8..,2003 ;5 9. :.,2006 ;1 10..,2007 ;4 11. :.,2005 ;1 12,,..,2005 ;6 13..,1993 ;1 14,..,1996 ;5 15. 2005.,2006 16. 2006.,2007 17 1 %,. 2005 1 %.,2007 18,. 1982.,1985 19,. 1990.,1993 20,..,1994 21..,2004 ;1 22..,2006 ;3 23,. 2000.,2002 24,..,2004 ;6 25,.,.,1993 26..,2006 ;3 27,..,1994 28..,2002 ;3 29,. 1990.,2007 ;1 30..,2005 ;1 31. 2006,2008. http :/ / www. moh. gov. cn/ public2 files/ / business/ htmlfiles/ zwgkzt/ pwstj/ list. htm 32. 2005 1 %. (2008 ),2008 ( : :2008-11)