33 5 2009 9 Vol1 33, No15 September 2009 23 Population Research : 1990 3 1990,, 2005 1 %, 1990, 90,,,, (32 33 ) 90 18 %,, 5 % 7 % (,, ) 53 % 17 % 23 % 1/ 3 16 %,,,,,,, : ; ; ;,, ;,, 1 1990,,, ( TFR) 1. 8 1. 4, 2. 1 (,2004 ;,2005 ; Morgan,2009), 1990 (,2007 ;, 2003 ;, 2004) 90??, 1990 3 H KUST6305/ 04 H NRC0607. HSS01
24 33 (2003) 2000 1997 2001 /, 1991 2000 TFR,, 90 TFR, TFR, Ret herford (2004) 2000 2000 1. 22, (own - children) ( birt h history reconstruction) 1990 2000, 1990, 2000 1. 58,, 1990,40 %, 60 % (2004), 2000 538. 65 0 ( ),, 2000 2000, 13 2000,, 0. 7 (2004,2006),, (2005a,2005b), (2005) 2000,, ( ) (2004) 2000, 0 10,, 1990 1990 2000, 1990 2. 37,1995 1. 48, 2000 1. 23 2005, (2008) 1995 2000,1995 2000 1. 67 1. 50 ; TFR 0. 4, 1990,, 10 (2002) 2000,2000 2000, 20 0 7, (2003) 1997 2002, 2000 4 9 1996, 18. 94 % 0 3 (, 2003), 0 10,, (2009) 90 TFR 1. 7, 2000 1. 7 5 10,90 B,, 2 ( ), ( I), ( P),,
5 :1990 25 :,,, : ( U1b > U1g ), (U1b > U2b > U3b), (U1g > U2b),, ( ), ( ), (,2006), 20 80 B 90,,,,,1970 1980,, 1990,,, B,, 90, : (1) ; (2),, ; (3) (, ),, (4) ; (5),,, 3 2005 ( N PS05) 0. 26 %,,, 3. 1 t k, k ( h, z) (i) (Mkih Mkiz) k (Bkih Bkiz) L t - k (t - k),st - k (t - k), : TFRkh = (Bkih/ Ct - k) / (Mkih/ St - k) (1) TFRkz = (Bkiz/ Ct - k) / (Mkiz/ St - k) (2) TFR : TFRkzh % = ( TFRkz - TFRkh) 3 100/ TFRkh (3) TFRkh TFRkz TFRkzh %, : (1) ; (2)
26 33 TFR ; (3) TFR 3. 2 ( SMM : Sibling Matching Mother),, 2005 1 %, ( ) 30 ( Sb ) ( Sg ) ( ) ( ), (Sb + Sg + 1),, (SMM),SMM,1990 80 % 90 % 3. 3 ( k) ( i) ( j) ( TFRkij), t k, k i j (Mkij) k (i) (j) (Bkij ) L t - k (t - k), : TFRkij = 1/ L t - k 3 ( Bkij/ Mkij) (4) TFRkij,,, 3. 4, 90 ( 32 33 ),,, 4 1990 4. 1 1, 90, 1995,1990 :, 1991 TFR 2. 12, 1992 1. 87, 1993 1. 76,1994 1. 57 1995 1. 64, 1. 5 1 1991 2000 ( TFR) 1991 2. 12 1. 39 1. 90 2. 65 1992 1. 87 1. 26 1. 71 2. 31 1993 1. 76 1. 21 1. 58 2. 19 1994 1. 57 1. 14 1. 41 1. 92 1995 1. 64 1. 13 1. 49 2. 06 1996 1. 49 1. 08 1. 35 1. 84 1997 1. 45 1. 02 1. 33 1. 81 1998 1. 47 1. 02 1. 32 1. 86 1999 1. 35 0. 98 1. 21 1. 69 2000 1. 41 1. 00 1. 28 1. 77
5 :1990 27, 1991 1. 39,, 1995 1. 13,, 1. 0 1. 1, 1999 0. 98, 2000 1. 00 1991 1. 90 90 1. 40, 1998 1. 32,1999 1. 21, 2000, 1. 28, 1990 2. 65 1. 92, 2. 06, 1. 8 4. 2 1, 1995, ( ) 1. 03 2. 60 0. 96 1. 42 0. 78 2. 16 0. 85 1. 27, 10 %,,, TFR,, 10 % 8 % 1 1995 ( ) ( 2),,, 1. 06 1. 94 1. 03 0. 91 0. 79 1. 58 0. 91 0. 81, 10 %,, 25 % ( 3),,, 2. 08 2. 25 2. 10 3. 17 2. 16 2. 35 2. 20 3. 32,,, TFR TFR
28 33, TFR TFRz TFRh TFRh 2 1995 ( ) 3 1995 ( )
5 :1990 29 4. 3 1991 0. 68 1995 0. 33, 1997 0. 30,, 1991 0. 38, 1995 0. 14, 2000 0. 07, 4, 90, 1991, 0. 352, 0. 325, 90, 0. 17 0. 19,, 1994 0. 174, 2000 0. 118,,, 4 1991 2000 5,, 1991 0. 24 2000 0. 09 ( ),1991 0. 07 2000 0. 01,, 1991 2000, 90,, 6,, 1991 0. 93 2000 0. 39, 1991 0. 60 2000 0. 1 1990,,, 90, 0. 23 0. 25,, 1994 0. 232,1997 0. 169, 2000 0. 157,,,,,,,
30 33 5 1991 2000 4. 4 6 1991 2000,, (2003),, 5, :,
5 :1990 31, 90,,, 9 ; 15 ; 7 7 1991 2000 8 1991 2000, 7, 1995, 1991 0. 602,
32 33 1992 0. 413,1993 0. 308,, 1995 0. 23 0. 25,, 90,90 ( 0. 13, 0. 11 ) 90,,, 8, 90, 1991 0. 688, 1995 0. 333,2000 0. 286, 90, 1991 0. 356 1993 0. 239, 1993,1995 0. 18, 1991 0. 331 1995 0. 144, 2000 0. 109,,, 90,,,,,,, 9 1991 2000 9,, 1995, 1991 0. 837, 1992 0. 691, 1995 0. 542,,1996 0. 585,, 2000 0. 52,, 90,90 ( 0. 29, 0. 24 ) 90, 5 1990 10 1990 2005 1 %, 1990 32 33
5 :1990 33,,, 1990 2001, 1990 10 1990 2001 (32 33) :,,,,,, 10, 1990 32 33, 90 10,, (B) 90 10 % 18 % ( G) 5 % 7 %,,, 53 % 60 % ( GB), 90 18 % 2001 23. 4 %, (B G) (13 % 15 %), (BB) (15. 5 % 14 %),,,,,, (B G) ( GG), 6. 5 % 7. 5 %, (BB), (B G) ( GB) ( GB),, 90, 16 %, ( GGB) 6 % 7 %, 2000 10 % (BB) ( GB) (B G) ( GGB) ( GGG),,,,
34 33,,,,,, + (,2008),, :,,, (, 1999),,,, 10 10, (B) (BB B G) (Bxx) ;, B BB B G Bxx 2001 35. 10 % 26. 39 % 28. 88 % 9. 64 % ;,, ( G) ( GB GG) ( Gxx) ;, G GB GG Gxx 2001 12. 92 % 48. 39 % 15. 52 % 26. 03 %,,,,,,,,, 1990,, 1990,, 2001,,,, 10, (BB) (B G) 1990 2001 10,, 10,, 1990 ( GB) ( GG) 2. 71,2001 ( GB) ( GG) 3. 10 6, 2005 1 % 30,, 1990 TFR TFR ( ),,90,, : (1) 90 1991 2. 12 1. 57,
5 :1990 35 1995 1. 64 1. 5, 90, 90,, (2),, TFR,,, (3) 1990 2001, 90 18 %, ( ) (5 % 7 %) (,, ) : (15 %) (14 %), 17 % 23 % 1/ 3 16 %,,,, ( ), : 1 Robert D. Retherford,Minja Kim Choe,Chen Jiajian,,. :., 2004 ;4 2 S. Philip Morgan, Guo Zhigang, Sarah R. Hayford, China s Below - Replacement Fertility : Recent Trends and Future Prospects. Population and Development Review 35 (3) : 605-629 (September 2009). 3... 1999 ;6 4..,2005 ;4 5..,2009 ;4 6,. 2000.,2002 ;4 7. 1991 2000., 2003 ;2 8. 1990.,2004 ;2 9..,2005 ;1 10..,2005 ;4 11. 2005 1 %. 2005 1 %.,,2005 12..,2008 ;4 13..,2004 ;5 14..,2005 ;3 15. 2000.,2003 ;6 16. :?,2005 ;6 17,,,. 2000.,2004 ;2 18. : 1949 1999.,2006 19..,2003 ;1 20,. 1990.,2007 ;1 21,. 2000.,2003 ;4 ( : :2009-09)