/ 2011 10 11 3 20% LME 7800 2012 8400 6000 23% 14% 4% -5% -15% -25% -34% 10-10-11 11-1-6 11-4-3 11-6-29 11-9-24 : S0550511070002 TEL: (8621)6336 7000-319 FAX: (8621)6337 3209 Email: chenbh@nesc.cn : 45 20 : 200002
... 4... 4... 5... 6... 7... 8... 9... 10...11...11... 12... 12... 13... 15... 16... 18... 19... 20 1 CDS... 4 2... 4 3... 4 4... 4 5... 5 6... 5 7... 5 8... 5 9 25%... 6 10... 6 11 3... 6 12 9... 6 13 ETF... 7 14 50...7 15 9... 7 16 8... 7 17 6... 8 18 6 20%... 8 19... 8 2
20 20%... 8 21 6... 8 22... 8 23... 8 24... 8 25... 9 26... 9 27LME03... 9 28LME3-15 6... 9 29 LME... 10 30 LME... 10 31... 10 32... 10 33...11 34...11 35 8 29%...11 36...11 37 PMI 50... 12 38 9 PMI 51.2... 12 39... 13 40... 13 41 8 CPI... 15 42... 15 43... 16 44... 16 45... 16 46... 16 47... 17 48... 17 49... 17 50... 17 51 2%... 18 52... 18 1... 18 2... 19 3... 21 3
3 8 1 CDS 2 3 4 4
2009 2008 5 6 VIX 7 Baa Aaa 7 8. 9 6 20%LME 10% 5
9 25% 10 0% 40% -5% -10% LME LME LME LME LME LME shfe shfe shfe 20% 0% -15% -20% -20% -40% -25% -60% -30% -80% 6 6 LME 20% 60% 6 9 5% 10%-20% 11 3 12 9 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 6 VIX 8 VIX ETF 1900 10% 50 6
13 ETF 14 50 15 9 16 8 60% 30% 6 20% 7
17 6 18 6 20% 30.00% 0% 20.00% -10% 10.00% 0.00% -10.00% -20.00% -30.00% -CN APT-HK 45%- EU -cn -20% -30% -40% -50% 6 6 19 20 20% 21 6 22 23 24 8
25 26 LME 3 3 9 10 1 LME3 15 2011 6 3 15 27LME03 28LME3-15 6 3 9
29 LME 30 LME LME 31 32 8 23.55 21% 8 47.8 30% 10
33 34 35 8 29% 36 16600 / 17000 / 15400 / 16000 / 3 11
3 IMF 9 20 2011 4.3% 4.5% 4.0% 6 0.1 0.5 9.5% 9.0% 7.8% 7.5% 6 0.4 0.3 2011 1.5% 1% 9 37 PMI 50 38 9 PMI 51.2 9 PMI PMI 50 PMI 50 12
9 3% CPI 8 2% CPI 3.80%CPI 4% 8 4.5% 39 40 750 2009 2010 80% GDP 3% 3 13
2011 2012 2011 8.5% 7.6% 2012 6.8% 6.5% 80 G20 EFSF 9 50 QE3 2009 M1 M2 11.20% 13.50% CPI 7 8 6.2% 14
M1 CPI 5% 41 8 CPI 42 PMI PMI 15
43 44 45 46 30% 16
25% 5 25.8% 1.50% 47 48 10% 20% 6% 49 50 17
2012 2005 0-3% 5% 51 2% 52 LME 6000-8500 7800 2012 8400 6000 1 2011Q1 2530.64 9628.63 2574.78 26927.78 29915.9 2414.37 2011Q2 2618.29 9163.37 2531.24 24191 28635.4 2270.56 2011Q3 2434.65 9022.88 2456.73 22106.33 24749.7 2253.02 10 10 2250 7410 1996 19325 23150 1947 2011Q4E 2250 7800 2150 19600 23600 2000 2012E 2400 8400 2200 20100 25000 2100 WIND 4 2012 18
1500-1850 2010 2015 2010 6500 2 25% 10 150 20 50 2 19
20
3 PE TTM 2011 2012 TTM 2011 2012 PBMRQ 000960.SZ 23.78 0.59 0.92 1.18 40.13 25.90 20.20 4.41 600547.sh 38.55 1.19 1.45 1.69 32.27 26.51 22.81 11.40 000630.SZ 19.35 0.84 1.13 1.26 22.96 17.12 15.36 2.97 002340.SZ 22.30 0.42 0.55 0.87 53.21 40.90 25.73 4.94 601137.SH 18.32 0.63 0.80 1.10 29.15 22.90 16.65 2.20 000962.SZ 20.27 0.58 0.70 0.74 34.70 28.96 27.44 5.14 600549.SH 39.49 0.90 1.31 1.49 43.70 30.15 26.50 9.36 600531.SH 20.37 0.81 0.72 0.90 25.19 28.29 22.63 3.19 002501.SZ 20.49 0.64 0.91 1.60 32.04 22.52 12.83 3.25 002540.SZ 18.58 0.60 0.71 1.08 30.96 26.17 17.20 1.83 WIND 21
: 6 12 6 12 6 12 : 6 12 15% 6 12 5 15% 6 12 ±5% 6 12 5% 22