亚太酒店市场业绩回顾 Travel Trends in Asia 叶朋勤 Jesper Palmqvist 亚太区区域总监 Area Director Asia Pacific PATA Annual Summit 2015, Hong Zhu Shan Hotel, Leshan, Sichuan, China 24 April 2015
A privately held company with 30 years of experience. Long-established credibility and integrity towards both hotel companies as well as the financial and tourism industry - that purchase our reports frequently and globally. 拥有 30 年行业经验的私人控股公司 与酒店管理公司 金融业以及旅游业建立了稳固的长期合作, 并为其提供全球酒店数据报告 全球领先的酒店业标杆数据管理公司 The world s leading Hospitality Benchmark company 综合酒店数据, 提供有价值及有参考意义的业绩报告 Aggregating key hotel metrics into valuable performance data 被各大酒店集团以及酒店专业领域认可为行业标准数据报告 Industry standard used by most major hotel groups
STR Global core business What we do 我们做什么 Monthly and Daily occupancy, Average room rate and RevPAR (revenue per available room) historic trends and forecasts 月度及日度入住率 平均房价和每间可售房收入 历史趋势和未来预测 The number of hotels in a market (supply) and the number of hotels getting built (pipeline) supply and pipeline 市场酒店数量 ( 供给 ) 和未来新增酒店数量 ( 筹建项目 ) 供给和筹建项目 P&L reports and Customized data analysis 盈利报告和定制数据分析
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2014 年酒店市场表现如何呢? How did 2014 perform? PATA Summit -- @2015 STR Global
亚太区 Asia Pacific 2014 年和 2013 年每间可销售客房增长率 ( 当地货币 ) RevPAR growth, 2014 over 2013, Local Currency 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% -2% -4% -6% 日本 Japan 菲律宾 Philippines 印尼 Indonesia 香港 Hong Kong 新西兰 New Zealand 澳大利亚 Australia 新加坡 Singapore 马来西亚 Malaysia 越南 Vietnam 中国 China 印度 India -8% 泰国 Thailand
2014 hard facts 困难的 2014 Occupancy: -11% 入住率 RevPAR: -9% 每间可售房收入 Bangkok: Occupancy: -16.2% 曼谷入住率
BUT 可是 2014 Rates held: +2.6% 2014 年平均房价 Q4 RevPAR: +2.5% 第四季度每间可售房收入 Best since 2005 自 2005 年以来最好 Q4 Occupancy: 76.4% 第四季度入住率
Driving rates? Yes! (2014 over 2013, in local currency) 房价增长了吗? 有的! > +5% 0 to +5% 0 to -3% Maldives Japan French Polynesia Indonesia New Zealand Thailand Philippines Australia Vietnam Malaysia Singapore South Korea India China
$600 Maldives in a different league 马尔代夫增长趋势放缓 YE 2014 RevPAR (USD CC), % Growth YoY 2014 全年每间可售房收入与变化率 $500 RevPAR $400 $300 $200 $100 +11% +15% +7% $0 2012 2013 2014
Maldives - 2015 a slower start 马尔代夫 2015 年业绩下降 ADR/Occ/RevPAR, YTD Mar 2015 % growth YoY 平均房价 / 入住率 / 每间可售房收入变化率 Occupancy 入住率 -9.6% ADR 平均房价 +2.4% RevPAR 每间可售房收入 -7.4%
Japan growth 日本增长情况 ADR and Occ % YoY YE 2014 (JPY) 平均房价和入住率同比变化率 2014 全年表现 ( 日元 ) Positive 增长 33% 55% Negative 下降 3% 8%
上海市场持续恢复 由平均房价上涨带动 The Shanghai recovery story Turning tides with rates 每季度平均房价和入住率 ( 人民币 )2011-2014 ADR and Occupancy by Quarter (CNY) 2011-2014 80% 75% Occ ADR 460 450 70% 440 65% 430 60% 420 55% 410 50% 2011 2012 2013 2014 400
苏州市场持续恢复 由入住率上涨带动 The Suzhou recovery story Turning tides with rates 每季度平均房价和入住率 ( 人民币 )2011-2014 ADR and Occupancy by Quarter (CNY) 2011-2014 75% 490 70% Occ ADR 470 65% 450 60% 430 55% 410 50% 390 45% 370 40% 2011 2012 2013 2014 350
Shenzhen & Guangzhou 深圳与广州 RevPAR growth (CNY) 每间可售房收入增长率 520 Occupancy pushing recovery 入住率上升推动市场的恢复 500 480 Guangzhou Shenzhen 460 440 420 400 2013 2014 2015
Beijing historic view 北京历史数据 Historic ADR (CNY) 历史平均房价 Rates held 房价平稳 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Beijing Occupancy 北京入住率 Historic YE Occupancy (%) with trend 各年入住率趋势 75 70 65 60 55 SARS 非典 GFC 金融海啸 Austerity 政府消费减少 50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Beijing Occupancy 北京入住率 YE Occ (%) 全年入住率 72 71 70 69 68 67 2012 2013 2014
Beijing hotel trend 北京酒店市场 2014 年平均房价和入住率同比变化率 ADR and Occupancy growth 2014 over 2013 (CNY) 18% 18% Positive 增长 Negative 下降 29% 35%
Beijing Analysis What/When looks better? 北京市场分析 - 北京哪个时间段表现较好? Stronger: Saturday 星期六表现较强 Q2 Weaker: Tuesday Wednesday 星期二星期三表现较弱
Supply growth slowing down 供给增幅在放缓
Beijing Forecast 北京市场预测 Forecasted growth (CNY) by quarter 每季度每间可售客房收入预测 2015 Q3f Occupancy 入住率 +2.1% ADR 平均房价 +1.9%
In some cases yes there is a LOT of new supply - that Demand will struggle to absorb in the near future 在某些地方 新增供给量的确很多 - 而需求量将很难在短期内吸收这些新增的供给量 三亞 Sanya Pipeline growth next 5 years: 未来五年供给量涨幅 +30%
How about Chongqing? 那重庆会如何表现呢? Big pipeline but Rates and Demand rising 有庞大的新增供给量 但房价与需求量也同时在增长 Pipeline: 19% growth of existing supply 新增供给量 :19% 的涨幅 20% 15% Demand growth strong since early 2014 自 2014 年以来, 需求量有很强的增长率 10% 5% 0% -5% 2013 2014 2015
Pipeline -Japan with moderate growth Mar 2015, Under contract by Room Count, sorted by # of new rooms % over existing supply China 15.1% Indonesia 26.2% India 24.2% Malaysia 17.7% Thailand 8.5% Philippines 28.9% Japan 2.6% Australia 5.4% Vietnam 21.3% Singapore 9.6% New Zealand 4.3%
展望 Outlook
HOT or NOT in early 2015? 2015 年初至今每间可销售客房同比增长率 ( 当地货币 ) YTD Mar 2015, YoY RevPAR growth, Local currency 东京 Tokyo 曼谷 Bangkok 大阪 Osaka 奥克兰 Auckland 孟买 Mumbai 墨尔本 Melbourne 新西兰 New Zealand 泰国 Thailand 日本 Japan 法属波利尼西亚 French Polynesia 澳大利亚 Australia H O T 布吉岛 Phuket 巴厘岛 Bali 香港 Hong Kong 汉城 Seoul 雅加达 Jakarta 吉隆坡 Kuala Lumpur 马尔代夫 Maldives 印尼 Indonesia 韩国 South Korea 马来西亚 Malaysia 缅甸 Myanmar N O T
HOT or NOT in early 2015? 2015 年初至今每间可销售客房同比增长率 ( 当地货币 ) YTD Mar 2015, YoY RevPAR growth, Local currency 武汉 Wuhan 杭州 Hangzhou 深圳 Shenzhen 上海 Shanghai 台北 Taipei 苏州 Suzhou 沈阳 Shenyang 北京 Beijing 广州 Guangzhou 三亚 Sanya 大连 Dalian 西安 Xi an 成都 Chengdu 青岛 Qingdao 香港 Hong Kong H O T N O T
总结与潜力 Takeaways and Potential Recovery 恢复 Investment growth 投资增长 Optimism 乐观 Tourism growth 旅游业增长 Some Markets not 一些城市存在压力 Supply 供给 Economic growth 经济增长速度 Strong USD 强美元 奢华超高端酒店 2014 年的业绩增长在一线城市比二线城市好 Luxury & Upper Upscale performance growth of 1st tier cities is better than 2nd tier cities 新增供给增长的速度有所放缓 Future supply growth is decreasing
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