国土技術政策総合研究所資料

TECHNICAL NOTE of National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management No December 9 National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management Ministry of Land Infrastructure Transport and Tourism, Japan ISSN Forecasting Future Trade Value Based on International Economic Scenario by Computable General Equilibrium Model (Based on year 1 data) Ryuichi SHIBASAKI, Hiroshi SASAYAMA

9 12 (YSK-N-195) FTAEPA FTAEPA GTAP GDP GTAP i

Technical Note of NILIM No. December 9 (YSK-N-195) Forecasting Future Trade Value Based on International Economic Scenario by Computable General Equilibrium Model (Based on year 1 data) Ryuichi SHIBASAKI*, Hiroshi SASAYAMA* Synopsis In order to forecast future cargo throughput by ports, future trade value needs to be forecasted as prerequisite. When forecasting future trade value, it is desired to consider future trends on international economics, trade and international economic policies including Free Trade Agreement and Economic Partnership Agreement, and international transport policies including infrastructure investment as far as possible. Meanwhile, future forecast has a large uncertainty; for example, recent world s economic downturn had been unpredictable before it happened. To deal with them, this research forecasts future trade value and real GDP of each country and region, by applying Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model which is a typical computable general equilibrium (CGE) model targeting world trade and had been used by authors in order to measure impacts of FTA and EPA conclusion as a sensitivity analysis. They are estimated not only based on a baseline scenario according to the historic trends, but also based on three scenarios with a wide range considering variations on economic indices and related policies of each county and region which are assumed by the results of the questionnaire survey that the authors conducted last year. Key Words: Trade Value, Future Forecasting, GTAP Model, International Economic Scenario * Senior Researcher, Port and Harbor Department National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Nagase 3-1-1, Yokosuka, 239-0826 Japan Phone+81-46-844-5028 Fax+81-46-844-6029 E-mailshibasaki-r92y2@ysk.nilim.go.jp ii

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No. FTA EPA FTAEPA 1)-3) GTAP Global Trade Analysis Project 4) 5) GTAP FTAEPA 1) 1997GTAP ver.51ver.6 FTAEPA 2) GTAP 3) FTAEPA 4) 2025 GTAP 6) 7) 8) GTAP 7) 203010 8) GTAP 9) 7) GTAP

8) 9) GTAP GTAPver 6.2GTAP 1) 7) 1 1ver.6 35 2),3) 2) 2 1 5 201020152020 2025 GTAPRunGTAP ver3.21 Version-New Using updated database from last simulation 1 1) Hertel 10) GTAP 7) 2 2) GTAP 1 2 3 4 5 6 4) 5 2010

No. GTAP GTAPpop pop(%) 11) 12) 1 05 GTAPqo(Land) 1 GTAP qo(unsklab)qo(sklab) qo(sklab)(%) lab(%) dshr_sklab(%)lab + dshr_sklab 3 lab - dshr_sklab qo(unsklab) qo(sklab) lab dshr_sklab 3 GTAP lab 11) 12) 1564 (2) dshr_sklab GTAP 4) 4 10% 4 13) 0 42.8% 5 52.7% 9.9% 14) 16%1999 29.5%4 13.5% 14) 55%0 63%5 8% 14) 76%1999 86%4 10%

A58 448% A59 64060% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% +10% (5) +5% (4) 0% -5% (3) (2) 2010 2015 2020 2025-10% (1) - (0) A58 4) +2.0% -2.0% 16% +1.26% 0% 0% 50% +4.95% 21% 59% 20% 16% +8.53% +80% +70% +60% +50% +40% +30% +20% +10% +0% +10% (5) +5% (4) 0% -5% (3) (2) 2010 2015 2020 2025-10% (1) - 0 A59 4) 16%+150%16% -1 +7.5%+12.5% 2010 dhs dshr_sklab dshr _ SkLab dhs (1)

No. = 1/48 ILO GTAP = 3.0 5 GTAP 6 GTAP KE - KBKBKE qo(capital) qo(capital)(%) GDP 7 GDP GDP 5 6 GTAP GTAP 7 Gross Domestic Products GTAP GDP GDP GDP50% 5 GDP% 4) GDP% GDP A40 6GDP24% A416GDP 43% A42 6GDP2030% A436GDP 22% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% +5.0% +2.5% (5) (4) 0% -2.5% (3) (2) 2010 2015 2020 2025-5.0% (1) - (0) A40GDP 4)

45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% +5.0% (5) +2.5% (4) 0% -2.5% (3) (2) 2010 2015 2020 2025-5.0% (1) - (0) A41GDP 4) 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% +5.0% (5) +2.5% (4) 0% -2.5% (3) (2) 2010 2015 2020 2025-5.0% (1) - (0) A42 GDP 4) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% +5.0% (5) +2.5% (4) 0% -2.5% (3) (2) 2010 2015 2020 2025-5.0% (1) - (0) A43GDP 4) GDPSHR_cap(%) dshr_cap(%) qo(capital)(%)gdpgdp qgdp(%) 1 qocap SHR _ cap GDP 1 qgdpgdpshr _ cap dshr _ cap (2) (1) = 0.5(2) dshr _ cap qocap 1 qgdp 1 1 (3) SHR _ cap GTAP qo(natres) qo(natres)(%) 15) 5 656 8 1 1.1533.6%1997 6102.1%1996 5101.9% 1 53.6% 2.0% 4) 8 +0.7 +25.86.296.99 (2)

No. A76 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (5) (4) (3) (2) 2010 2015 2020 2025 (1) (0) A76 4) A77 20152020 4) (1) 9 1.0% +0.5%0% -0.5%-1.0% GTAPafereg afereg(%) 9 +2.0% 10 GTAPGDP 11 GTAP GDP GDP GDP 12 13 GDPqgdp(%) 6) IMF 18) 4) (%) 14 10 Mankiw 16) Romer 17) 11 RunGTAP 12 6) GDP 13 GTAP ORANI Perdue Monash 14 % %

A17 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% +.0% +25.00% 50.0% - 2010 2015 2020 2025 A17 4) WTO FTA EPA GTAPtm(s) tms(r,s)rs tm(s) tm(s) tm(s)(%) 15 WTO 15-10.0% 15 WTO 1998 17.5% 2010 9.8% 1 8.20% 2011 5.53 19) WTO 20) 7 5.1% 9.9% 3.5%EU5.2% 11.0% -2.0% 5 GTAP 4) (%) A28WTO 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% +5.0% +2.5% (5) (4) 0% -2.5% (3) (2) 2010 2015 2020 2025-5.0% (1) - (0) A28 4) tms(r,s) 2) 3) FTA EPA APEC 21 2010 2020

No. 5 5 tm(s) 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 GTAPtx(r) txs(r,s) GTAP ats(r) atd(s) 21) 19983 2.7% 5 5% 5 5 +10.0% tx( prc ) = 10.02010 1 4) A55 21)-23) 1) 2) GTAP d d

5 d 5 58 d 2010 d 5 5 8 17 5 2010201520202025 35 1GTAP Global Insight 24) 16 2025 4723412291 4.4%6.75.2% 3.5% 52010 3.3%6.24.2%2.52020 20254.6%7.85.7% 3.8 16 1 5 18 GDP1 17 4 GTAP ver.7 18 5 5

No. GDP GDP pop qo(unsklab)qo(sklab) % qo(cap) 1020%2025 qo(natres) 9 afereg tm(s)tms(r,s)

FTA 2020 FTA FTA20202025 FTA2010 FTA2025 FTA GDP d d 2010 20105 2010 m tx(prc) 2010+20%2010 5+10%2010 20% GDP GTAP 19 dpgovdpgov 201020% 20105 201020% 10% GTAP d 19

No. GTAP GDP2025 8 8 84GTAP ver.7 1 GTAPver.6 9 8 31 No.258568p. No.451834p. No.501877p. No.4798244p. pp.198-213 8 10 4 http://www.mlit.go.jp/singikai/ koutusin/kouwanbun/10/images/shiryou1-2.pdf. 5 pp.271-282 ODA Discussion Paper on Development Assisrtance No.12FACID742p III No.716107p 10Hertel, T. W. (etd.): Global Trade Analysis Modeling and Applications, Cambridge University Press, New York, 1997. 11 6 12Council for Economic Planning and Development : Population Projections for Taiwan Areas 8-2056 13 7525p 14UNESCO: Statictics (Core Themes: Education) 15 United Nation Statistics Division: Energy Statistics.

http://unstats.un.org/unsd/energy/ 16 Mankiw, N. G.: Macroeoconomics, fourth edition, Worth Publishers, New Yourk, 0 4 17Romer, D.: Advanced MacroeconomicsMcGraw-Hill, 1996 1997 18International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook October 8. 19WTO http://www.meti.go.jp/policy/trade_policy/wto/ negotiation/accession/accession.html 20 World Trade Organization (WTO), United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), and International Trade Centre (ITC): World Tariff Profiles 8, WTO publications, p. 21 No.39944p. 22 No.37854p 23 No.409161p 24) IHS Global Insight Inc.: Global Trade navigator.

No. pop (%)

lab (%) dshr_sklab (%)

No. qo(unsklab) = lab - dshr_sklab (%) qo(sklab) = lab + dshr_sklab (%)

qo(capital)(%) qo(natres)(%)

No. GDP afereg (% GDP ) GDP qgdp (% GDP )

tm(s)(%)

No. FTAEPA

1= WORLD 1= 1= 1= 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1,000 1= 1= 1=

No. 1= 1, 1,000 1= 1= 1= 2, 2, 1, 1, 1= 1= 1,000 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1=

1= 1= 260 240 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1=

No. 1= WORLD 1= 1= 1= 2, 2, 1, 1, 1= 1, 1,000 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1=

1= 1,000 1= 1= 1= 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 170 130 110 1= 1= 1,000 1=

No. 1= 1= 240 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 260 240 1=

1= WORLD 1= 1= 1= 1, 1, 1, 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1, 1, 1= 1,000 1= 1=

No. 1= 1, 1, 1= 1= 1= 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1= 1= 1,000 1= 1= 1= 260 240 1= 1, 1,000 1= 1=

1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1=

No. GDP 110,000,000,000,000 90,000,000 80,000,000 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 World GDP 7,,000 7,000,000 6,,000 6,000,000 5,,000 5,000,000 4,,000 GDP 2,,000 2,,000 1,,000 1,,000,000 30,000,000 4,000,000,000 GDP 19,000,000 1,000,000 17,000,000,000 15,000,000,000 13,000,000,000 11,000,000,000 9,000,000,000 7,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 1,000,000,000 GDP GDP 1,,000 1,,000 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 GDP,000,000,000,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 GDP 410,000 360,000 310,000 260,000 210,000,000 110,000 60,000 GDP,000 230,000,000 130,000 80,000 30,000 GDP,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 GDP 650,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 50,000 50,000 GDP GDP 1

GDP 1,,000 1,,000,000,000,000 GDP,000,000,000,000,000 GDP 340,000 290,000 240,000 190,000,000,000,000 90,000,000 50,000 40,000 GDP 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 GDP 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 GDP,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 50,000 GDP 3,,000 11,000,000 13,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 3,000,000 9,000,000 2,,000 11,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 10,000,000 2,000,000 6,000,000 9,000,000 1,,000 5,000,000 8,000,000 4,000,000 1,000,000 3,000,000 7,000,000,000 2,000,000 6,000,000 GDP GDP GDP 2,,000 2,,000 1,,000 1,,000 GDP,000,000,000,000,000 GDP 1,,000 1,,000 1,,000 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 GDP 1

No. GDP 26,000,000 24,000,000 22,000,000 20,000,000 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 GDP 2,,000 2,,000 2,000,000 2,,000 1,,000 2,000,000 1,,000 1,,000 1,,000 1,,000 1,,000 1,,000 1,,000 1,000,000 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 GDP GDP 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 GDP,000,000,000,000,000,000 GDP,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 2,000,000 50,000 GDP,000,000,000,000,000 GDP 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 GDP 4,000,000 3,,000 3,000,000 2,,000 2,000,000,000 30,000 1,,000 50,000 20,000 1,000,000 GDP 1,,000 1,,000 1,,000 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 GDP 170,000,000 130,000 110,000 90,000 70,000 50,000 GDP 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 GDP 1

1= WORLD 1= 260 240 1= 1= 1, 1, 1, 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= pop qo(unsklab)qo(sklab)

No. 1= 1= 1= 1= 1, 1, 1, 1, 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 170 130 110 1= 1= 1= pop qo(unsklab)qo(sklab)

1= 260 240 1= 1= 260 240 1= 260 240 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 260 240 1= 260 240 pop qo(unsklab)qo(sklab)

No. 1= WORLD 1= 260 240 1= 1= 1, 1, 1, 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= qo(cap) 2025

1= 1= 1= 1= 1, 1, 1, 1, 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 170 130 110 1= 1= 1= qo(cap) 2025

No. 1= 260 240 1= 1= 260 240 1= 260 240 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 260 240 1= 260 240 qo(cap) 2025

1= WORLD 1= 260 240 1= 1= 1, 1, 1, 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= qo(natres)

No. 1= 1= 1= 1= 1, 1, 1, 1, 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 170 130 110 1= 1= 1= qo(natres)

1= 260 240 1= 1= 260 240 1= 260 240 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 260 240 1= 260 240 qo(natres)

No. 1= WORLD 1= 1= 1= 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1,000 1= 1= 1= afereg

1= 1= 1= 1= 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 190 170 130 110 1= 1= 1= afereg

No. 1= 1= 260 240 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 260 240 afereg

1= WORLD 1= 260 240 1= 1= 1, 1, 1, 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= tm(s) tms(r,s)

No. 1= 1= 1= 1= 1, 1, 1, 1, 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 170 130 110 1= 1= 1= tm(s) tms(r,s)

1= 260 240 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 260 240 1= tm(s) tms(r,s)

No. 1= WORLD 1= 260 240 1= 1= 1, 1, 1, 1, 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= tx(prc)

1= 1= 1= 1= 1, 1, 1, 1, 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 170 130 110 1= 1= 1= tx(prc)

No. 1= 260 240 1= 1= 260 240 1= 260 240 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 260 240 1= 260 240 tx(prc)

1= WORLD 1= 1= 1= 1, 1, 1, 1, 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= d

No. 1= 1= 1= 1= 1, 1, 1, 1, 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 190 170 130 110 1= 1= 1= d

1= 1= 240 1= 260 240 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 260 240 d

No. 1= WORLD 1= 260 240 1= 1= 1, 1, 1, 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= dpgov

1= 1= 1= 1= 1, 1, 1, 1, 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 190 170 130 110 1= 1= 1= dpgov

No. 1= 260 240 1= 240 1= 260 240 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 1= 260 240 1= 260 240 dpgov

% x% dx % y% SHR_Sk dshr_sk 18 65 0% (x+dx)% dx% % 1718 65 dshr _ Sk SHR _ Sk y (A1) SHR _ Sk y 65 18 1 x dx 65 18 1 48 x dx 48 x% dshr_sk dshr _ Sk SHR _ Sk y 65 18 1 x 65 18 1 (A2) SHR _ Sk y 48 x 48 dx % dx%(a1)(a2) dx dshr _ Sk dshr _ Sk 1 48 dx (A3) GTAP PCIF WTO -10.0% t(%) GTAPTM(%) tm(%)pm GTAPTM PM tm t t PCIF tm PM = 1/48 t PCIF t 1 TM PM tm t 1 TM PM PM (B1)

国土技術政策総合研究所資料 TECHNICAL NOTE of N I L I M No. December 9 編集 発行 C 国土技術政策総合研究所 本資料の転載 複写のお問い合わせは 239-0826 神奈川県横須賀市長瀬 3-1-1 管理調整部企画調整課電話 :046-844-5019