Research Office & Forecast Knowledge Report Report Guangzhou Location Sector Office Services 2Q Quarter 14 2013 Accelerating success. Guangzhou Office Property Market 广州写字楼市场 MARKET OVERVIEW Guangzhou s economy experienced a steady developing period during the second quarter of 2014, as evidenced by the stable performance of these economic indicators including the total industrial output, the total investment in fixed assets, the total retail sales of consumer goods, etc. Based on the factors mentioned above, both domestic and foreign enterprises kept optimistic on the local investment and consumption market. The leasing demand from sectors like professional services, and financial well supported the Grade A office market. Along with the settling down of the lease intentions during the past months, the transactions warmed up slightly in this quarter after the cold atmosphere in 1Q 14. As a result, the average rental of Guangzhou Grade A office market stopped downward trend but remained stable at CNY151.5 per sqm per month. No new supply was completed during the reviewed three months, and the overall average vacancy rate declined by 1.2% q-o-q to 23.7%. On the other hand, the sales market of Guangzhou Grade A office was quiet in this quarter, and a watch-and-see attitude dominated the market. Influenced by the unfavorable factors like the slowdown of domestic economy growth rate, the intensive competition from several new Grade A office projects for sale, etc., the buyers started to worry about the investment yield. The prudent purchase activities leaded to the fall of transacted areas in this quarter. The average price stopped rapid increasing but stood stable at CNY36,890 per sqm in this quarter. 市场概览 2014 年上半年, 广州市经济运行保持平稳发展态势, 工业总产值 固定资产投资 社会消费品零售总额等宏观经济指标均表现良好 ; 宏观经济基本面的稳定发展吸引国内外企业继续看好本地投资 消费市场, 来自专业服务以及金融等企业租赁需求支撑本季度广州写字楼租赁市场的稳定表现 ; 随着早前洽谈的租赁意向逐步入市, 市场租赁成交较上季度有轻微回暖 ; 整体平均租金水平基本较上季度持平, 保持在 151.5 元 / 平方米 / 月左右 本季度, 无新增甲级写字楼项目落成入市, 整体市场空置率较上季度下降约 1.2% 达至 23.7% 写字楼销售市场方面, 本季度广州甲级写字楼销售成交表现平淡 ; 市场观望气氛浓厚 考虑国内经济增速放缓 市场供应竞争压力较大等消极影响, 买家对未来租金走势信心减弱, 对写字楼购买持审慎态度, 市场成交放缓 录得全市平均售价为 36,890 元 / 平方米, 较上季度变化不大 Market Indicator 2Q 14 Vacancy Price Rate Rental
Overall Supply, Demand and Vacancy The total stock of Guangzhou Grade A office remained at 3.49 million sqm for no new project was completed in this quarter. As the stock was absorbed gradually, the overall vacancy rate was recoded at 23.7%, down 1.2% q-o-q. The forecasted new supplies in the coming quarters, such as Agile Center, the 4th Phase of G.T. Land Plaza and Yuexiu Fortune Center, launched pre-leasing works for several months to attract the large-sized tenant. Thus, the increase room of vacancy rate in the future quarters will be limited in spite of the completion of these projects. In General, the leasing demand for Guangzhou Grade A office increased slightly in this quarter. For instance, the demand from bank, insurance, security companies was relatively active. Notable transactions included that Metlife Insurance, Citi Bank, China Securities, Sinosafe Insurance, Manulife-Sinochem Insurance leased offices in Guangdong Electric Plaza in Yuexiu district, Jiantao Plaza, HNA Plaza in Tianhe district, and some other office building respectively. In addition, the demand of relocation or expansion from professional services, information technology, and healthy goods companies remained stable. For example, Aecome Environmental Technological Consultancy took about 1,800 sqm in HNA plaza, Meiyuanchun Liquid leased office in Poly V Plaza, Guangzhou He Shang Investment took about 1,055 sqm in Poly Central Plaza, and Qoros Automotive took about 153 sqm in G. T. Land Plaza. 整体供应, 需求及空置状况 2014 年第二季度, 广州市无新增甲级写字楼项目完工 ; 整体库存维持在 349.1 万平方米 市场库存逐步消化, 本季度录得全市平均空置率下降约 1.2% 达至 23.7% 此外, 多个在建甲级写字楼未来供应项目, 如越秀财富中心 雅居乐中心 高德置地四期等已启动市场预租, 通过早期吸纳大面积租户减少项目完工后运营及竞争压力 ; 因此, 预计未来以上项目的入市对整体空置率水平推升幅度有限 整体而言, 本季度广州市甲级写字楼市场需求表现较上季度有所回暖 ; 以银行 保险 证券为代表的金融企业租赁需求表现活跃, 如中美大都会人寿 花旗银行 华夏证券 华安保险 中宏人寿保险等分别在越秀区广东电子大厦 天河区建滔广场 海航大厦等项目新租赁或扩租办公面积 ; 此外, 专业服务 信息科技及保健消费品等行业搬迁 扩租需求稳定 如艾奕康环保技术顾问 ( 广州 ) 有限公司 (Aecome) 续租赁海航大厦 1,800 平方米办公面积 ; 而美媛春口服液 广州市和商投资顾问有限公司 观致汽车等在保利 V 座 保利中环大厦 高德置地广场等项目租赁办公面积 Table 1. Major Economic Indicators of Guangzhou 表 1. 广州市主要经济指标 Figure 1. Guangzhou GDP Growth vs. National GDP Growth 图 1. 广州 GDP 增长率 vs. 全国 GDP 增长率 INDICATOR 指标 Guangzhou GDP 广州 GDP China GDP 中国 GDP 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20141H 11.5% 13.0% 11.0% 10.5% 11.6% 8.3% 8.7% 10.4% 9.2% 7.8% 7.7% 7.4% 13.00% 11.50% 11.60% 11.00% 10.30% 10.50% 8.70% 9.20% 8.30% 7.80% 7.70% 7.40% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20141H Guangzhou GDP 广州 GDP China GDP 中国 GDP CPI 居民消费价格指数 Interest Rate (1 to 3 years commercial loan rate) 基础货款利率 ( 一到三年期商业贷款利率 ) -0.7% 5.76% 3.3% 5.85% 5.4% 6.65% 3.0% 6.15% Source: Guangzhou Statistics Bureau, Colliers International 资料来源 : 广州市统计局, 高力国际 2.6% 2.4% 6.15% 6.15% Source: Guangzhou Statistics Bureau, Colliers International Guangzhou 资料来源 : 广州市统计局, 广州高力国际 2 Research & Forecast Report 2Q 14 Office Services Colliers International
Rental Trend The average rental of Grade A office market stood stably at CNY151.5 per sqm per month in the second quarter of 2014. In the sub-markets, the rents of Yuexiu district and North Tianhe- Sports Center area increased slowly in this quarter, which were recorded at CNY 118.6 per sqm per month and CNY156.6 per sqm per month respectively. Seeing no new supply in this quarter and the update of property management and services, the existing projects in Pearl River New City performed well with an increasing occupancy rate. The landlords confidence was raised up. In addition, the slightly warm-up of leasing demand brought about a more active market compared to last quarter. As a result, the decrease rate of average rental in this area was narrowed, which was recorded as CNY159.0 per sqm per months. Figure 2. Guangzhou Grade A Office Supply, Absorption and Vacancy Rate 图 2. 广州甲级写字楼市场供应量, 吸纳量和空置率 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 22.69% 15.90% 20.10% 21.90% 23.70% 21.80% 租金趋势 2014 年第二季度, 广州市甲级写字楼市场平均租金录得为每月每平方米人民币 151.5 元, 与上季度相比基本保持平稳 其中, 越秀区 天河北 - 体育中心商务区项目租金水平保持缓慢上升态势, 本季度分别为每月每平方米人民币 118.6 元和每月每平方米人民币 156.6 元, 较上季度均有轻微升幅 ; 由于没有新增供应落成冲击, 现有项目在办公物业管理 服务等方面不断改善提升, 促使早前入市项目空置率逐步下降 ; 加之本季度租赁需求较上季度稍微增加, 珠江新城区域写字楼租赁市场较年初活跃, 租金下跌幅度收窄, 本季度录得该区域甲级写字楼市场平均租金为每月每平方米人民币 159.0 元 Figure 3. Guangzhou Grade A Office Effective Rent Growth Rate 图 3. 广州甲级办公楼实际平均租金和增长率 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F Suppy 供应量 Absorption 吸纳量 Vacancy Rate 空置率 RMB per sqm per month Source: Guangzhou Statistics Bureau, Colliers International Guangzhou 资料来源 : 广州市统计局, 广州高力国际 180 140 160 120 100 6.20% 6.10% 80 60 1.60% 1.90% 40 0.02% 0% -0.61% 0.14% -0.70% -0.30% -0.65% 0% -1.70% 20-2.30% 0 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 Average Rent 平均租金 Growth Rate 年增长率 3 Research & Forecast Report 2Q 14 Office Services Colliers International
Price Trend During 2Q 14, one en block transaction was recorded. R&F Yingyao Plaza, a new Grade A office project in Pearl River New City, was sold to a local property company at a total price of about CNY6.2 billion. The project covers a gross floor area of about 150,000 sqm. The overall investment market was cold with strong watch-and-see atmosphere. Most of the buyers doubted about the rental increase when seeing a slowdown economy growth rate and intensive competition from considerable Grade A products for sale in 2014. The sales transacted volume fell and the average sales price stopped increasing but stood at CNY36,890 per sqm in this quarter. Table 2. Average Effective Rent of Guangzhou Grade A Office by District 表 2. 广州甲级办公楼分区平均租金 售价趋势 2014 年第二季度, 广州市甲级写字楼市场录得一宗整栋成交, 广州本土某房地产开发有限公司近 62 亿元人民币收购位于珠江新城的富力盈耀大厦, 该项目总建筑面积约 15 万平方米 本季度写字楼销售市场表现疲软, 观望气氛浓厚 考虑国内经济增速放缓 市场可售项目增加带来竞争压力较大等消极影响, 买家对未来租金上行走势信心持续走低, 从而对写字楼购买持审慎态度 本季度市场销售成交放缓, 录得全市平均售价为 36,890 元 / 平方米, 较上季度变化不大 Figure 4. Guangzhou Grade A Office Average Sales Price and Growth Rate 图 4. 广州甲级办公楼平均售价及增长率 RMB per sqm per month 38,000 District 分区 Average Effective Rent (RMB/sqm/m) 33,000 Tianhe 天河 Yuexiu 越秀 Haizhu 海珠 158.0 118.6 98.0 28,000 23,000 18,000 13,000 8,000 5.20% 5.60% 4.90% 2.63% 2.50% 1.60% 1.61% 1.00% 1.00% 0.60% -0.01% 6.00% 3.00% 0% 3,000-2000 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 Av Sales Price 平均售价 Growth Rate 增长率 4 Research & Forecast Report 2Q 14 Office Services Colliers International
Outlook The investment environment of Guangzhou is improving gradually. It was recognized as the Best Business City in China mainland by Forbes in 2013, and was ranked the first in both the Chinese cities law and order estimation 2013 and public services capacity 2013. According to an investigation conducted by American Chamber of Commerce in South China, about 55.8% of the interviewed companies set their South China Headquarters in Guangzhou, 92.2% of the members were profitable or becoming profitable in a short term. In spite of the negative influences like the slowdown of economic growth rate, the business shrink of manufacturing, architecture and real estate industries, Guangzhou still attracted a number of companies from sector of financial, professional services, IT/ Electronics, daily consumer goods and logistics industries. It is mainly because of the favorable factors including the well investment circumstance, improving local civilian consumption capacity and demand, etc. It is expected that about 173,466 sqm of new supply from two Grade A projects will be launched into the market in the next half year. They are the fourth phase of G. T. Land Plaza and Agile Center. Pressed by the new supply, the average rental is estimated to decline by a small margin. For the investment market, it is forecasted that the transacted area in the coming quarters will shrink and the upward room of the sales price will be limited considering an increasing number of products for sale and a downward forecast of the average rental. 展望 广州投资环境正逐步提升优化, 在 2013 年第三度荣获福布斯 中国大陆最佳商业城市, 并分别被 中国法治政府评估报告 2013 中国城市公共服务能力评估报告 评为第一名 此外, 据华南美国商会 2014 年对相关企业的调查显示,55.8% 的企业将华南地区运营总部设在广州,92.2% 的会员企业已实现盈利或将在短期内实现盈利 因此, 尽管面临整体经济增速放缓 国内外制造 建筑 / 房地产等行业业务收缩等消极影响, 广州市良好的投资环境 不断提升的居民消费力和消费需求仍吸引大量金融 专业服务 电子科技及日用等消费品 物流行业进驻广州, 为写字楼市场带来稳定的需求 2014 年下半年, 广州甲级写字楼市场预计将有包括高德置地四期 雅居乐中心等项目落成入市, 带来约 173,466 平方米新增甲级供应 因此, 预计未来租金水平仍有小幅下降空间 销售市场方面, 珠江新城 天河北 - 体育中心及琶洲等商务区均有甲级写字楼项目在售, 市场可售货量较大, 由于租金下调预期将继续, 因此, 我们预计未来广州甲级写字楼市场销售市场成交将继续放缓, 市场售价上升有限 Table 3. Major Office Transactions in Guangzhou 2Q 14 表 3. 2014 年第二季度广州写字楼主要成交案例 Company Project Transaction Type 公司名称 楼盘 交易类型 Area (sqm gross) 面积 ( 建筑平方米 ) Location 区域 Aecome 艾奕康环保技术顾问 ( 广州 ) 有限公司 HNA Plaza 海航大厦 租赁 2,371 Tianhe District 天河区 Consulate General of Congo 刚果领事馆 Teem Mall 粤海天河城大厦 租赁 450 Tianhe District 天河区 Guangzhou Long Xin Co., Ltd. 广州隆新信息科技 Nanyue Plaza 南岳大厦 扩租 500 Haizhu District 海珠区 Manulife-Sinochem Life Insurance 中宏人寿保险 Nanyue Plaza 南岳大厦 租赁 1,213 Haizhu District 海珠区 Personal 个人 Poly Clover Plaza 保利克洛维广场 Sale 购买 1,256 Tianhe District 天河区 5 Research & Forecast Report 2Q 14 Office Services Colliers International
485 offices in 63 countries on 6 continents United States: 146 Canada: 44 Latin America: 25 Asia: 38 ANZ: 148 EMEA: 84 $2.1 billion in annual revenue Authors: Eric Lam Managing Director South China +86 20 3819 3888 +86 20 3819 3899 eric.lam@colliers.com Bryan Chan Director Director South China +86 20 3819 3888 bryan.chan@colliers.com Colliers International Property Services (Guangzhou) Co., Ltd. 702 Teem Tower 208 Tianhe Rd Guangzhou 510620 PRC TEL +86 20 3819 3888 1.46 billion square feet under management 15,800 professionals and staff About Colliers International Colliers International is a leader in global real estate services, defined by our spirit of enterprise. Through a culture of service excellence and a shared sense of initiative, we integrate the resources of real estate specialists worldwide to accelerate the success of our partners. We connect through a shared set of values that shape a collaborative environment throughout our organization that is unsurpassed in the industry. That s why we attract top recruits and have one of the highest retention rates in the industry. Colliers International has also been recognized as one of the best places to work by top business organizations in many of our markets across the globe. colliers.com Copyright 2013 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. 6 Research & Forecast Report 2Q 14 Office Services Colliers International