Rent We expect heavy new supply in suburban areas to drive down average rent slightly in 219, but rents are likely to rebound for the following three

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恩伟盛
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Colliers Quarterly Q2 218 6 August, 218 BEIJING RETAIL 北京商铺 Firm demand drives down vacancy rate Emily Cao Associate Director North China Despite one new project opening in Q2 218, the average

This is mainly due to the active leasing activities from the F&B and fashion sectors. We expect the positive trend to persist in H2 218.

We project rents to grow continuously over 22-222.

1 Colliers Quarterly Q August, 218 BEIJING RETAIL 北京商铺 Firm demand drives down vacancy rate Emily Cao Associate Director North China Despite one new project opening in Q2 218, the average occupancy rate and rents of the Beijing prime retail market continued to increase to, respectively, 97.4% and RMB824. (USD124.5) per sq m per month. This is mainly due to the active leasing activities from the F&B and fashion sectors. We expect the positive trend to persist in H The demand for prime retail space is likely to remain strong for the next four years. However, the new projects in suburban areas with lower rents will probably drive down average rent in 219. We project rents to grow continuously over Investors seeking long-term profit growth should pay more attention to upgrade opportunities among underperforming retail properties, considering the low vacancy rate with moderate future supply but strong demand in Beijing. Forecast at a glance Demand In addition to F&B, sportswear, designer and niche fashion brands were active in Q2. We expect this trend to continue. Supply We expect 325, sq metres (3.5 million sq ft) to enter the market in H2 218, followed by abundant new supply of 6, sq m (6.5 million sq ft) in 219. Then the annual supply should decrease to around 3, sq m (3.2 million sq ft) in each of the next three years. Vacancy rate We expect strong demand to support the high commitment rate as seen in the new project in Q2. The vacancy rate is likely to be driven largely by the new supply and to stay below 5% for the next five years. 强劲需求推动空置率下降曹化行副董事华北尽管 218 年第二季度有一座新项目开幕, 北京优质商铺市场平均入驻率及租金仍分别持续上升至 97.4% 与人民币 824. 元 (124.5 美元 ) 每月每平方米这主要由餐饮及时装业态活跃的租赁活动所致我们预计这一积极趋势将在 218 年下半年保持延续优质商铺面积的需求或将在未来四年保持强劲然而位于市郊区域且租金较低的新增项目或将在 219 年拉低平均租金我们预计 22 至 222 年间, 租金将持续增长鉴于北京市场空置率较低未来供应有限且需求强劲, 追求长期收益增长的投资者应更加关注表现欠佳的商铺物业的升级机会预测一览表需求除餐饮业态外, 运动设计师及小众时装品牌均在第二季度表现活跃我们预计这一趋势或将延续供应我们预计 218 年下半年将有 32.5 万平方米 (35 万平方英尺 ) 的新增供应完工入市, 此外 219 年还将迎来 6 万平方米 (65 万平方英尺 ) 的大体量新增供应此后三年年均供应或将降至约 3 万平方米 (32 万平方英尺 ) 空置率正如我们根据第二季度新入市项目所观测的, 预计强劲的需求将支撑新项目较高的签约率空置率或将主要受新增供应影响并在未来五年保持在 5% 以内

2 Rent We expect heavy new supply in suburban areas to drive down average rent slightly in 219, but rents are likely to rebound for the following three years supported by the declining vacancy rate. F&B sector shows strongest retail sales growth rate Beijing s retail sales growth of consumer goods decelerated to 4.4% YOY in H1 218 from 4.7% YOY in Q The F&B sector saw 8.4% growth YOY during the same period, much faster than the growth rate of goods (4.% YOY), supporting the rapid expansion of F&B brands. One new property opened in Q2 WF Central, with total new supply of 5, sq metres (538,195 sq ft), was the only new shopping mall to have a grand opening in Q2. Beijing s prime retail total stock increased to approximately 5.7 million sq metres (61.4 million sq ft). WF Central is in the Wangfujing submarket and is a highend project developed by Hong Kong Land. After a sixmonth trial opening, the project has achieved a commitment rate more than 8% and has attracted more than 13 brands including 2 brands first stores in Beijing or China, including Vivienne Tam, Bao Bao Wan Fine Jewellery, Jade Garden, The Cheesecake Factory, and BabyNes. Vacancy rate continues to decline despite new supply Although one new project entered the market, the overall vacancy rate declined to 2.6% by the end of Q2 218, down.5 percentage points QOQ. Further improvement of the occupancy rate in existing projects and enhancement of tenant quality were the major factors that pushed down the overall vacancy rate. Changying Paradise Walk filling the vacant space left behind by the closure of the previous Parkson department store became the most important factor pushing down the overall vacancy rate. The previous Parkson department store occupied approximately 35, sq m (37,675 sq ft) and closed in May 217 due to poor performance. After more than one year s repositioning and promotion, the vacant space has been committed by 7+ brands covering fashion, lifestyle, children s, F&B, gym and the 4, sq m (43,55 sq ft) LegoLand Discovery Center as anchor tenant. 租金我们预计 219 年大量位于市郊区域的新增供应将致使平均租金小幅下跌, 然而随着空置率水平持续降低, 租金或将在随后三年有所回升餐饮业表现最为抢眼 218 年上半年, 北京市社会消费品零售总额增长率由第一季度同比增长 4.7% 降至同比增长 4.4% 同期, 餐饮业同比增长 8.4%, 增速高于商品零售业 ( 同比增长 4.%), 支持了餐饮业品牌的迅速扩增本季度一座新项目入市总体量约 5 万平方米 (538,195 平方英尺 ) 的王府中環系第二季度唯一开幕的购物中心有鉴于此, 北京优质商铺面积总存量增至约 57 万平方米 (6,14 万平方英尺 ) 位于王府井子市场的王府中環系香港置地集团开发的高端购物中心项目经历六个月试营业后, 该项目签约率已超过 8% 并吸引超过 13 家品牌, 这其中包括诸如 Vivienne Tam 万宝宝高级珠宝店翠园芝乐坊餐厅以及 BabyNes 等 2 家品牌在北京乃至中国区域的首家店铺新增供应完工入市, 空置率仍持续下降截至 218 年第二季度末, 尽管有一座新项目入市, 整体空置率仍环比下降.5 个百分点至 2.6% 现有项目入驻率的进一步提高以及租户品质的提升系整体空置率下降的主要原因龙湖长楹天街项目将因百盛百货闭店产生的空置面积填满, 成为本季度整体空置率下降最主要的原因百盛百货占地约 3.5 万平方米 (37,675 平方英尺 ), 并因欠佳的表现于 217 年 5 月闭店历经超过一年的重新定位与推广, 原空置面积已签约超过 7 家品牌, 其中涵盖时装休闲儿童餐饮及健身等业态, 以及一家作为主力租户约 4, 平方米 (43,55 平方英尺 ) 的乐高探索中心 2 Colliers Quarterly Q August 218 Beijing Retail Colliers International

3 The Place introduced Victoria s Secret and MUJI as anchor tenants for its north wing, also making a big contribution to the decline of the overall vacancy rate. Beijing Mid- to High-End Shopping Centre New Supply, Net Absorption & Vacancy Rate (sq metres) 世贸天阶引入维多利亚的秘密和无印良品作为其北翼的主力租户, 亦对整体空置率下降起到较大推动作用北京中高端购物中心新增供应量净吸纳量和空置率 ( 平方米 ) 4, 8% 4, 8% 3, 6% 3, 6% 2, 4% 2, 4% 1, 2% 1, 2% % % -1, 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18-2% -1, 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18-2% New Supply Net Absorption Vacancy Rate Source: Colliers International Sportswear, designer and niche fashion brands are active Landlords of prime shopping malls prefer to introduce more new fashion brands to make their projects unique and attract more customers. Sportswear is one of the most active fashion categories as sports seem to be increasingly popular. Beijing APM introduced three new sportswear brands, Aimer Sports, Rapido, and Nike. WF Central also introduced Particle Fever, a domestic highend designer sportswear brand established in 215. The 2,35 sq m (25,295 sq ft) Adidas store in Taikooli has also been re-opened after several months renovation. As customers pay more attention to product s styles, design and materials, designer brands and niche brands are also welcomed by landlords. For example, ICICLE committed to over 1, sq m (1,76 sq ft) of space in The Mall at Oriental Plaza. The project also introduced the Italian brands C.P. and Cissonne, a high-end readyto-wear brand. Luxury brands have been actively adjusting their strategy to attract more customers, in response to a previous slump in sales, which have recovered in recent quarters. Chanel opened a full-line store in China World Mall. The new shop sells fashion apparel, watches, and jewellery, as well as perfume and beauty products, which is the first of this kind for Chanel in China. 新增供应净吸纳量空置率运动设计师与小众时装品牌较为活跃高端购物中心业主倾向于引入更多全新时装品牌, 以增加其项目的独特性并吸引更多顾客随着运动健身越来越受到大众欢迎, 运动品牌亦成为最活跃的时尚业态之一北京 APM 引入三个全新运动品牌, 包括爱慕运动 Rapido 及耐克王府中環也引入了于 215 年创立的国内高端设计师运动服饰品牌粒子狂热位于太古里, 面积 2,35 平方米 (25,295 平方英尺 ) 的阿迪达斯店铺也在经历数月翻新后重新开幕随着顾客愈发关注产品风格设计及材质, 设计师品牌和小众品牌亦受业主欢迎例如,ICICLE 之禾在东方新天地承租超过 1, 平方米 (1,76 平方英尺 ) 该购物中心亦引入意大利品牌 C.P. 及法国高级成衣品牌 Cissonne 尽管最近数季内情况有所好转, 奢侈品牌正积极地调整策略以吸引更多顾客, 作为对此前销量下跌的回应香奈儿于国贸商城开幕一家全品类门店该全新门店的销售品类包括时尚服饰手表珠宝以及香水与化妆品产品, 成为中国首家此类型的香奈儿门店 3 Colliers Quarterly Q August 218 Beijing Retail Colliers International

4 Successful projects see rents continue to increase Landlords of projects with good performance continue to improve their tenants mix to increase their rent. Some listed companies rental results strongly support this. For example, comparing Q1 218 to the whole-year 217 figure, the average rent of China World Mall Phase I increased by 1.9% while that of China World Mall Phase IIIA increased by 2.1% and phase IIIB increased by 8.7%. This is according to the regular report of China World Trade Center, a Shanghai Stock Exchange listed company. The above-average rent of the new project also supported the increase in the average rent. As a result, the average ground floor fixed rent in Beijing s mid to high-end shopping centres increased by.8% QOQ to RMB824. (USD124.5) psm per month during Q Beijing Mid- to High-End Shopping Centre Average Ground Floor Fixed Rent by Submarket (RMB psm per month) 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Xidan Wangfujing Financial Street Ground Floor Rent Source: Colliers International Lufthansa CBD Emerging Area Overall Average Rent 经营情况良好的项目租金持续上涨项目表现良好的业主持续优化其租户结构以提升租金, 部分上市公司披露的租金情况即系强力佐证例如, 比较 218 年第一季度和 217 年全年指标可知, 国贸商城一期平均租金上涨 1.9%, 而国贸商城三期 A 阶段与 B 阶段分别上涨 2.1% 与 8.7% 作为上海证券交易所上市公司, 以上信息披露于中国国际贸易中心的常规报告中新项目高于平均水平的租金亦推动了平均租金的上涨因此,218 年第二季度北京中高端购物中心首层平均固定租金环比增长.8% 至人民币 824. 元 (124.5 美元 ) 每月每平方米北京中高端购物中心首层平均固定租金 ( 人民币每月每平方米 ) 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 西单王府井金融街燕莎 CBD 新兴区域首层租金总体平均租金 A supermarket portfolio transaction was disclosed 本季度录得一宗超市资产包交易 There was no shopping mall en-bloc transaction closed 218 年第二季度未录得购物中心整售交易, 但一宗超市 in Q However, a supermarket portfolio 资产包交易于季内被披露乐天集团已同意出售北京乐天 transaction was disclosed in the quarter. Lotte Shopping 玛特 87.38% 的股权予物美, 并持有其剩余约人民币 11.5 has agreed to sell an 87.38% stake in Lotte Mart in 亿元 (1.74 亿美元 ) 的股权此交易使得这家总部位于首 Beijing to Wumart and keep the remaining shares for 尔的企业得以脱手其在北京的 21 家门店 around RMB1.5 billion (USD174 million). This deal allows the Seoul-based firm to offload 21 stores in Beijing Source: 4 Colliers Quarterly Q August 218 Beijing Retail Colliers International

Vacancy rate is largely projected to be driven by the new supply As the ID Mall in the East Fourth Ring Road postponed its opening date to 219, four new projects should enter the market in H2 218

Considering that all the new projects are operated by established operators, which should ensure the quality of the projects, we expect the vacancy rate to continue to decline from 2.6% now to 2.

5 Vacancy rate is largely projected to be driven by the new supply As the ID Mall in the East Fourth Ring Road postponed its opening date to 219, four new projects should enter the market in H2 218 with total supply of 325, sq metres (3.5 million sq ft). Considering that all the new projects are operated by established operators, which should ensure the quality of the projects, we expect the vacancy rate to continue to decline from 2.6% now to 2.4% by the end of 218. The low vacancy rate should ensure that the rent can move up further in H We predict the vacancy rate to increase to 4.3% by the end of 219, with the rent declining by 2.3% YOY with nearly 6, sq m (6.5 million sq ft) of new supply entering the market, and 75% of that in suburban areas outside the Fifth Ring Road. We then expect the vacancy rate to decline to 2.1% by the end of 222 as the annual supply should decrease to approximately 3, sq m (3.2 million sq ft) per year over the three years from 22 to 222. Supported by the low vacancy rate, we expect average rents to increase at an average annual growth rate of.6% over the same period as fewer projects open in suburban areas. Major New Leases and Openings MAJOR NEW LEASES AND OPENINGS Q2 218 PROPERTY BRAND TRADE China World Mall The Mall at Oriental Plaza Chanel ICICLE Mixed Fashion Beijing APM Nike Sportswear The Place Victoria s Secrets Fashion Aegean Mall Brookstone Lifestyle 空置率将主要由新增供给驱动由于地处东四环的芳园里 ID Mall 将推迟其开业时间至 219 年,218 年下半年将会有总存量 32.5 万平方米 (35 万平方英尺 ) 的四座新项目完工入市鉴于全部新增供应均将由成熟运营商经营, 项目品质应有所保障, 我们预计空置率将持续下降, 并将在 218 年底, 由目前的 2.6% 降至 2.4% 低空置率或将保证租金在 218 年下半年得以继续上涨我们预测空置率于 219 年底增加至 4.3%, 同时随着接近 6 万平方米 (65 万平方英尺 ) 的新增供应完工入市, 且其中 75% 位于五环外的市郊区域, 租金或将同比下降 2.3% 鉴于 22 至 222 年年均新增供应量将降至约 3 万平方米 (32 万平方英尺 ), 我们进一步预测空置率于 222 年底将降至 2.1% 受低空置率的支撑, 以及未来市郊区域新增供应较少, 我们预测这一时期平均租金将维持年均.6% 的增长率主要新租及新开业 218 年第二季度主要新租及新开业项目品牌业态国贸商城香奈尔全品类东方新天地 ICICLE 服饰北京 APM 耐克运动世贸天阶维多利亚的秘密服饰爱琴海购物中心 Brookstone 生活 Source: Colliers Internationals For more information: Jie Li Managing Director North China Head Valuation & Advisory Services China Jie.Li@colliers.com Andrew Haskins Executive Director Research Asia Andrew.Haskins@colliers.com Emily Cao Head Research North China ext. 61 Emily.Cao@colliers.com 免责声明 : 本文件由高力国际准备, 仅作广告和参考之用高力国际未对其中的信息, 包括但不限于其内容准确性和可靠性作出任何明示或默示的保证陈述或承诺任何有意者应自行求证信息的准确性高力国际明确排除适用所有由本文件得出的推测或默示的条款条件和保证, 对由此引发的损失和损害亦不承担任何责任此出版物的版权由高力国际和 / 或其许可 5 方所有 Colliers 218 Quarterly Q August 218 Beijing Retail Colliers International

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