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1 Vol. 2 3 No. 7 Jul * 朱 1 曼 1,2 甘浪雄副教授 1,3 文元桥教授 1 黄亚敏 1,3 肖长诗教授 X U A A Method for Defining Bridge's Safety Area under Ship out of Control Condition ZHU Man 1 GAN Lang-xiong 1 2 WEN Yuan-qiao 1 3 HUANG Ya-min 1 XIAO Chang-shi School of Navigation Wuhan University of Technology Wuhan Hubei China 2 School of Naval Achitechture Ocean and Civil Engineering Shanghai Jiaotong University Shanghai China 3 Hubei Inland Shipping Technology Key Laboratory Wuhan Hubei China Abstract To study ship impact against bridge probability characteristics under ship out of control condition define quantificationally bridge safety area raise the level of bridge area navigation safety a model was built for calculating the impact probability based on the motion model of ship out of control. According to the acceptable standard of ship-bridge collision probability bridge's safety area under ship out of control condition was defined. To verify the rationality of the algorithm the Monte Carlo method was used to simulate the impact under different meteorological and hydrological conditions and ship out of control conditions. Then bridge safety areas obtained on the basis of different ship-bridge collision probabilities were figured out. The simulation results indicate that the bridge's safety area under ship out of control condition that was defined by this method coincides with the area defined by the maritime administration. Key words ship out of control bridge safety area ship impact against bridge impact probability Monte Carlo method 0 *

2 AASHTO American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials Fig. 1 Schematic diagram of coordinate system 8 3 a - D u - - s = U S exp - t /T st 1 T - - D = U 0 S exp - T /T st dt = U S T st 1 - exp - T /T st 2 u s m /s T st s T st = c /ln2 c L C m 12 ρ a C wf A f L C = exp u U '2 w T ρ w C w A 1 ρ a kg /m 3 ρ w kg /m 3 C wf C w u m /s A f A s m 2 U' w m /s T s Y 2 X B 1 S m U s m /s U c L W m 9 m /s U w m /s L W = V C Tsinβ V C m /s β T 槡 s 3

3 S D X + L X C + L X W B /2 < D S + D Y + L Y C + L Y W 5 S m B m D S 1 m D X D y m L X C L Y C m L X W L Y W m N = P I = N P oc P occ 6 P I % N /a P oc % 2 P occ % B S S m P occ N U P = m N P occ P occ 3. 2 S S Q U = n 7 1 u i i = 1 u i m n Q m 3 t = 0

4 T1 T2 Table 1 1 Simulation design 1 m /s 0 10 kn m /s / 1 m /s t 10 kn m /s s 10 kn m /s 1 m 8 kn m /s 5 kn m /s 2 1 m /s T1 2a m m m 800 m 300 m T2 2. 5% 2b 3 2b 800 m 10 kn m /s 1 m /s s 10 kn m /s m 8 kn m /s m 5 kn m /s m 2 10 kn m /s 5 kn m /s m T m Fig. 2 Ship-bridge impact probability distribution in different flows m 4

5 Fig m Ship-bridge impact probability distribution in different flow speeds s m 5 in different flow directions DWT 5 Fig s 300 m Ship-bridge impact probability distribution Fig. 3 Ship-bridge impact probability distributions ~ for disabled ship DWT with different speeds m 2% 4 0 ~ 720 m m ~ m 2% ~ m % m m 1. 2% m 1. 2% ~ m

6 a 300 m 2% 2% m 300 m 2% 6b 2% m 300 m 2% 6c 2% m 300 m 2% 300 m ~ m m s Fig. 6 Ship-bridge impact probability distribution in different flow speeds and distances 1 Ole Damgaard Larsen. Ship Collision with Bridges M. Zürich Schweiz IABSE International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering S E Van Manen. Ship Collisions Due to the Presence of Bridges R. Brussels PIANC Permanent International Association of Navigation Congresses General Secretariat AASHTO. Guide Specifications and Commentary for Vessel Collision Design of Highway Bridges M. Washington D. C. AASHTO American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials

7 D DAI Tong-yu. Ship Impact against Bridge and Its Risk Assessment D. Harbin Harbin Engineering University Kenneth Brian Berlin. Structural Reliability Analysis for Vessel Impact on Bridges D. Austin University of Texas J WANG Xiang. The application of dynamic numerical simulation to bridge navigation safety evaluation J. Logistics Engineering and Management J ZHUANG Yuan LIU Zu-yuan. Experimental investigation on turbulent flow width around bridge pier J. Navigation of China J CHEN Liang WU Shan-gang XIAO Ying-jie et al. Active forewarning technology for anti-collision between ship and bridge based on video object detection J. Port & Waterway Engineering FAN Wei YUAN Wan-cheng ZHOU Mi. A nonlinear dynamic macro-element for demand assessment of bridge substructures subjected to ship collision J. Journal of Zhejiang University-Science A J XU Hai-xiang WU Wei-guo YU Jin-gang et al. Study on ship-bridge collision avoidance system J. China Safety Science Journal J LIU Ming-jun LI Shi-gang YANG Xiao-yan et al. On the state of motion while the ship is out of control J. Ship & Ocean Engineering M LI Yong GUO Guo-ping. Ship Maneuvering M. Beijing China Communications Press D LI Zhong-gang. Study on Definition of Bridge Water Area in Tide River D. Wuhan Wuhan University of Technology J DAI Tong-yu LIU Wei-li NIE Wu. Probability analysis and prediction of ship impacts against bridges J. Journal of Harbin Engineering University Luís Pereira de Oliveira Jan J Verstraete Max Kolb. A Monte Carlo modeling methodology for the simulation of hydrotreating processes J. Chemical Engineering Journal / 朱曼 @ qq. com.

% GIS / / Fig. 1 Characteristics of flood disaster variation in suburbs of Shang

% GIS / / Fig. 1 Characteristics of flood disaster variation in suburbs of Shang 20 6 2011 12 JOURNAL OF NATURAL DISASTERS Vol. 20 No. 6 Dec. 2011 1004-4574 2011 06-0094 - 05 200062 1949-1990 1949 1977 0. 8 0. 03345 0. 01243 30 100 P426. 616 A Risk analysis of flood disaster in Shanghai