周方银 :,,,,,,,,,, : :,,,,,,,, , 4~32 JournalofContemporaryAsia-PacificStudies (Bimonthly) 4

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "周方银 :,,,,,,,,,, : :,,,,,,,, , 4~32 JournalofContemporaryAsia-PacificStudies (Bimonthly) 4"

岸缆云
4 years ago
Views:

1 周方银 :,,,,,,,,,, : :,,,,,,,, , 4~32 JournalofContemporaryAsia-PacificStudies (Bimonthly) 4

2 , 1, 20 90,,,, (frustratedregionalism) ,, (institutionalracing), 3,,,,,,,,2009,,,,,, 1 3 :, , 4~30 AlastairIainJohnston, StabilityandInstabilityinSino-USRelations:A ResponsetoYanXuetong ssuperficialfriendshiptheory,thechinesejournalof InternationalRe- temporary Southeast Asia,Vol.31,No.1,2008,pp DeepakNair, RegionalismintheAsiaPacific/EastAsia:A FrustratedRegionalism, lations,vol.4,no.1,pp DeepakNair, RegionalismintheAsiaPacific/EastAsia:A FrustratedRegionalism,Con- pp ;jürgenrüland, SoutheastAsianRegionalismandGlobalGovernance: MultilateralU- tility or HedgingUtility,Contemporary Southeast Asia,Vol.33,No.1,2011,pp ; :, , 6~32, : :, , 92~106 5

3 ,,,,, , 20 90,, 90, 1990~1991,,, , 1992,20 90,,,, (DavidLake), ( 2000 ),, ;, ( 1 2) 1 1, 2,, DavidLake,HierarchyinInternationalRelations,Ithacaand London:Cornel University Press, 2009,chapter3;DavidLake, RegionalHierarchy:AuthorityandLocalInternationalOrder,Re- view of InternationalStudies,Vol.35,SpecialIssue1,2009,pp

4 1 (1950~2005) :DavidLake,HierarchyinInternationalRelations,p (1950~2005) :DavidLake,HierarchyinInternationalRelations,p ,, 1,,, ( 3) 1,, 3 7

5 ,,,, 3,,, 1 3,, 20 50,, 1,,, 2005,, :, , 62~77, ht- tp:// and events/nr/2005/jul/12jul05 nr/12jul05 fs.html 8

6 ,, 1,,, %, 3.7% , 2011, ;, , 50, ;, , ; ,, , 21.5% 8.7% 5,,, 3, 1 2 :htp:// 3 htp:// htm;htp:// org/stat/table20 27.pdf 4,, ;, :htp:// index.jsp menu=m ,htp:// index.jsp menu=m ; :htp:// gjhdq/gj/yz/ htp://countryreport.mofcom.gov.cn/record/view asp news id=

7 , 3~5, :, ; 1, ;, ;,,,,,, 2,,,,, 3 1,,, SteveChan,China,the U.S.,andthe Power-Transition Theory:A Critique,Abingdon:Rout- ledge, ,World Politics2009 World Policits,Vol.6,No.1,January JohnIkenberry,MichaelMastandunoand Wiliam C.Wohlforth, Introduction:Unipo- larity,statebehaviorandsystemicconsequences,world Politics,No.1,January,2009,pp

8 ,,, 1,, 2,,,,,, 20 90, 3,,,,,,,, 4 ( ),, 1 Wiliam C.Wohlforth, TheStabilityofaUnipolar World,InternationalSecurity,Vol. 24,No.2,1999,pp.5-41; :, , 15~ : :, , , :, : ( ), 2004, 1346 :, , 6~26 11

9 1. 90,,,,,,, 1,,,,,, : (1),,,,,, (2),, 11 2,,,,, 1 2 MichaelD.Swaineand AshleyJ.Telis,Interpreting China sgrand Strategy:Past, Presentand Future,RandPublishing,2000,p.113; :,, 2008, 45, : :,, 2007 :, , 1~6 12

10 ,,,,, (, ) 1,,,, 2005, , , 80% ;2005, , , 1% 2,,,,, 2., ;,,,,,,,, 20 90, 1 2 htp://countryreport.mofcom.gov.cn/re- cord/index asp 13

11 ,, 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 3., 2,, 1 ThomasJ.Christensen, FosteringStabilityorCreatinga Monster TheRiseofChina andu.s.policytowardeastasia,internationalsecurity,vol.31,no.1,summer2006,pp GregTorode, RegionLookstoChinaforProfit,U.S.forSecurity,HongKong:South China Morning Post,November15,

12 ,,,,, 1,,,, (hedging) 2 (hardbalancing),,,,, ;,,, 3,, :,,,, EvelynGoh, GreatPowersandHierarchicalOrderinSoutheastAsia,InternationalSecuri- ty,vol.32,no.3,winter2007/8,pp ;,,,, Cheng-ChweeKuick, TheChinaFactorintheU.S. Re-Engagement withsoutheastasia:driversandlimitsofconvergedhedging,asian Politics & Policy,Vol.4,No.3,July2012,pp ;Brock F.Tessman, System Structureand State Strategy:Adding Hedgingtothe Menu,Security Studies,Vol.21,No.2,June2012,pp

13 1,,, 2,,, 3,,,,,, :, ;,,,, 1 EvelynGoh, GreatPowersandHierarchicalOrderinSoutheastAsia,pp ;JaeHo Chung, East Asia Respondstothe RiseofChina:Paternsand Variations,Pacific Affairs, Vol.82,No.4,Winter2009/2010,pp Chien-PengChung, Japan sinvolvementinasia-centeredregionalforumsinthecontextof RelationswithChinaandtheUnitedStates,Asian Survey,Vol.51,No.3,2011,pp , YulSohn, Japan snew Regionalism:China sshock,values,andtheeastasi- ancommunity,asian Survey,Vol.50,No.3,2010,pp ;Christopher W.Hughes, Ja- pan sresponsetochina srise:regionalengagement,globalcontainment,dangersofcolision, InternationalAffairs,Vol.85,No.4,2009,pp

14 ,,,,,,,, 4 4,, 1.,,,,,,, 17

15 ,,,,,, 1,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,,,, 2.,, 1,,, BarryBuzan,Ole WaeverandJaapde Wilde,Security:A New Frame- work for Analysis,BoulderColorado:LynneRiennerPress,1998;BarryBuzanand Ole W ver, Regionsand Powers:TheStructureof InternationalSecurity,London:CambridgeUniversityPress, 2003;MatMcDonald, SecuritizationandtheConstructionofSecurity,European Journalof Inter- nationalrelations,vol.14,no.4,2008,pp ; :, , 74~97 18

16 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (TPP), TPP,,,,, 1 1,,, :, , 1~7 19

17 TPP,,, TPP 10+X 1 TPP,, 2009 TPP, 5~6, TPP, TPP,,,, 2, 3., 20 90,,,, 3,,,,,,,,,, 1 TPP, : :, , 17~27 ; : (TPP) :, , 6~34 ; :, ( ) , 70~ :, 1~7 :, 4~13 20

18 ,, 1,,,,,,,, 4.,,,,,,,, :, ;,,,,,, 2,,,, 1, DanielW.Drezner, BadDebts:Asse- ssingchina sfinancialinfluencein GreatPowerPolitics,InternationalSecurity,Vol.34,No.2, Fal2009,pp ,, 21

19 ,,, :,,, ;, ( ),, 1, ( ),,,, 5.,,,,,,, YulSohn, Japan snew Regionalism:China sshock,values,andtheeastasiancommu- nity,pp ,,,,, 22

20 ,,,,, 1,,,, 2,,, 3,,, 4,,,,,, 1 2 KaiHe,InstitutionalBalancinginthe Asia Pacific:EconomicInterdependenceand China s Rise,London:Routledge,2009,p.10. 3, Jack Knight,Institutionsand Social Conflict, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1992, pp.35-43;tangshiping,a General Theoryof InstitutionalChange,LondonandNew York:Rout- ledge,2011.,, KaiHe, Under- miningadversaries:unipolarity,threatperception,andnegativebalancingstrategiesafterthecold War,Security Studies,Vol.22,No.2,2012,pp ,,,,, DeepakNair, RegionalismintheAsiaPacific/EastAsia:A FrustratedRe- gionalism,pp ; :, 6~32 23

21 ,,,,,,,, 1,, 2, (Alagappa),,,,, 3,,,,,,, : 1 3 JürgenRüland, SoutheastAsianRegionalismandGlobalGovernance: MultilateralUtility or HedgingUtility,pp TPP,, Muthiah Alagappa,ed.,Asian Security Order:Instrumentaland Normative Features, California:StanfordUniversityPress,2003,p

22 ,, 1,, 2,,,,,,, 1. 90, 3,,,,,,,,,,, 40%, ( ) 1,,,, :,, 1998, :, , 6~ EvelynGoh, GreatPowersandHierarchicalOrderinSoutheastAsia,pp

23 , 1,,, 2,,,,,,, 3,,,,,,, 1 BarrtR.Posen, CommandoftheCommons:the MilitaryFoundationoftheU.S.Hegemony, InternationalSecurity,Vol.28,No.1,2003,pp ,, RogerClif,MarkBurles,MichaelS.Chase,DerekEa- tonand KevinL.Polpeter,Enteringthe Dragon slair:chinese Anti-AccessStrategiesand Their Implicationsforthe United States,SantaMonica,Calif.:Rand, ,,, U.S.DepartmentofDefense,Sustaining U.S.GlobalLeadership:Prioritiesfor 21stCentury De- fense,january, ,,, :, , 6~25 26

24 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1,,,,,,, TPP 1,,, John Mueler, WarHasAlmostCeasedtoExist:An Assessment,PoliticalScience Quarterly,Vol.124,No.2,2009,pp ;Raimo Vayrynen, ed.,the Waningof Major War:Theoriesand Debates,Routledge,2006; :, , 6~32 27

25 ,,,,,, 2.,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,,, 1,, 1, StefanA.Schirm, LeadersinNeedofFolowers: EmergingPowersin GlobalGovernance,European Journalof InternationalRelations, Vol.16, No.2,2010,pp

26 1,,,,,,, 2,,,,,,,,,, 1, :,, 2002 ; :,, 2008, JosephS.Nye,Jr.,The Futureof Power,New York:PublicAfairs, , ;,,, 29

27 , 1, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,,,, TPP,,,,,,, 1, TangShiping,A General Theoryof Institutional Change,pp.11-20,

28 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1,,,,,,, 2,, 1, :, , 61~104 2, : :,,

29 ,,, 1,,,,,, 2,,, 3,,,,,,,,,,,, 1,, : :,, ~ ,,,, :htp://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/ / 03/c htm 3,,,, :, , 7~26 32

30 Abstracts China srise,thetransformationofeastasianstructureanddirec- tionsforthedevelopmentoftheeastasianorder ZhouFangyin Abstract:ThisarticleanalyzesthetransformationofEastAsianstruc- tureandthedirectionofthedevelopmentoftheeastasianorderagainstthe backgroundofchina srise.itarguesthatchina srisefundamentalychan- gesregionalstructureofeast Asia,astwoeconomicandsecuritycenters haveemergedandbecomepolarizedintheregion.thisstateofafairsisa combinedproduct ofthe dynamics between China s economicrise,the American congagement policytowards China,andthe majorityofeast AsianstateshedgingtheirpoliciesbetweentheU.S.andChina.Atthesame time,theexistenceofthesetwopowercentersineastasiahascausedeast Asianstatestofurtherhedgetheirpoliciestowardsthe U.S.and China.A dualstructurebringswithitnegativeimpactsforcooperationineastasia, andhasresultedintheregion sgreatpowersandcriticalactorsusingregion- alinstitutionsasinstrumentaltools,and manipulatingregionalconfigura- tionstoservetheendsofpowercompetition.insum,asadualstructurewil continuetoexistfortheforeseeablefuture,weneedtoconsiderhow to efectively maintainthestabilityoftheorder.fundamentaly,stabilityand efectivenessoftheeastasianorderrequiresthatchinaandthe U.S.identify new modesofengagement. Key Words:EastAsianStructure;EastAsian Order;China s Rise; StrategicHedging AbouttheAuthor:Zhou Fangyinisan AssociateProfessorinthe Na- tionalinstituteofinternationalstrategyofthechinese AcademyofSocial Sciences AShifting American AlianceintheAsia-Pacific:Between Chinese andamericanpowerandtrust LingShengli Abstract:ThestrategicpilarofAmerica sasia-pacificstrategyisits regionalaliance,whilemobilizingitsaliestomakechangesorreformsisa keymeansthrough whichtheu.s.implementsitsstrategyintheregion.in recentyears,changeinthe U.S.Asia-Pacificaliancehasbeenparticularly evident.relativelyspeaking,the mostconvincing argumentisthat Sino- U.S.relationsaretheprimarydriverbehindtheshifting U.S.Asia-Pacific 157

* :,,,,,,, : :, 20 80, ( ), ( ),, 21, : 21 *,, , 4~21 JournalofContemporaryAsia-PacificStudies (Bimonthly) 4

* :,,,,,,, : :, 20 80, ( ), ( ),, 21, : 21 *,, , 4~21 JournalofContemporaryAsia-PacificStudies (Bimonthly) 4 * : : : 20 80 ( ) ( ) 21 : 21 * 2012 6 4~21 JournalofContemporaryAsia-PacificStudies (Bimonthly) 4 21 20 (G20) 1 2 : 3 ( ) (H.J.Mackinder) 1919 : ; ; 4 15 1 :2011 : 2011 1 22 htp://news. xinhuanet.com/world/2011-01/22/c