2 23 lower reach of the Mississippi river and the west of Europe are on the list of highest risk. Meanwhile it is also notable that even through flood

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "2 23 lower reach of the Mississippi river and the west of Europe are on the list of highest risk. Meanwhile it is also notable that even through flood"

吴加陶
7 years ago
Views:

1 JOURNAL OF NATURAL DISASTERS Vol. 24 No. 1 Feb DOI: /j. jnd GDP 3 TV A Assessment and mapping of global fluvial flood risk FANG Jian 1 2 LI Mengjie 1 2 WANG Jing'ai 1 4 SHI Peijun State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing China 2. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education of China Beijing China 3. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Ministry of Education of China Beijing Normal University Beijing China 4. College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China 2 Abstract As a foundation of comprehensive flood risk management global flood risk assessment would promote the understanding of global flood risk spatial pattern facilitate the identification of global flood risk hotspots and is of great significance for global flood loss reduction. However subject to the deficiency of global data and large scale models relevent work has been very limited. In this study according to the theory of natural disaster system we assessed flood disaster risk globally based on the evaluation of flood-induced potential losses as well as the synthetic analysis of hazard exposure vulnerability and the environmental factors. Using global datasets of precipitation runoff DEM landuse population GDP and et al we implemented the risk assessment at multiple levels of country grid and large river basins with each of distinct method. Finally the risk results and rankings were validated through the comparison with historical flood losses and also previous researches. Siginificant high consistency and accrate reflection of spatial distribution of globle flood risk were obtained. It could be inferred from the assessment that Asia especially East South and Southeast Asia the south of North America especailly CB CB fangjian@ mail. bnu. edu. cn. spj@ bnu. edu. cn

2 2 23 lower reach of the Mississippi river and the west of Europe are on the list of highest risk. Meanwhile it is also notable that even through flood hazard is moderate the population risk in Africa is still remarkable high. Key words global flood disaster risk assessment risk mapping regional regularity Herold Mouton 12 GIS Jongman 13 UNISDR GAR 14 Winsemius 15 PCR - GLOBWB Natural Disaster Hotspots DFO EM - DAT 16 Hotspots analytical method empirical method GDP

3 1 3 1 Table 1 1 List of the datasets used in this study USGS 30s UNEP /UNISDR NASA Goddard Space Flight Center FAO NASA SRTM 15s DFO a USGS Terra Aqua MODIS IGBP GIS 1km GDP NOAA km GDP DFO EM - DAT Jongman GDP GDP 18 AM POT GEV GPD GPCP 3d 95% f x μ σ β = - ( 1 + β x - μ -1 /β σ ) 1 1 p = 1 - F x < x m = 1. f x dx 2 xm

4 4 23 μ σ β f x F x p x m a H = Prec n Ele n + Slp n + Dis n 3 Prec n 3d Ele n Slp n Dis n GDP 3 a 30 b 19 c DFO d DFO e GDP f GDP km 2 GDP 3 EM - DAT 2009 Fig. 1 1 Map of global economic loss risk for flood occurring once in year on country level

5 Fig. 2 2 Map of global flood risk of economic loss upper and population mortality lower on grid level / - 3 Amur

6 6 23 Fig. 3 3 Map of global flood risk of economic loss upper and population mortality lower on watershed level EM - DAT EM - DAT 100 Pearson % Spearman EM - DAT GAR Table 2 Correlation coefficients for risk results on country level EM_DAT EM_DAT Result GAR2009 Result Pearson ** N GAR2009 Spearman * N * **

7 1 7 DFO DFO a DFO Spearman DFO Spearman DFO Spearman Table 3 Correlation coefficients for risk results on watershed level DFO Result DFO Result Spearman ** N Spearman ** ** N Jongman Jongman IPCC 20

8 IPCC. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change R. Cambridge UK and New York USA Cambridge University Press Munich Reinsurance Company. Topics Geo Natural Catastrophes 2009 Analysis Assessment Positions R. Munich Germany European Commission. Directive 2007 /60 /EC of the European parliament and of the council of 23 October 2007 on the assessment and management of flood risks J. Official Journal of the European Union 2007 L Schelfaut K Pannemans B van der Craats I et al. Bringing flood resilience into practice the FREEMAN project J. Environmental Science & Policy UNISDR. Living with Risk A Global Review of Disaster Reduction Initiatives R. Geneva Switzerland J SHI Peijun. Second discussion of theory and practice for systematic studies on disasters J. Journal of Natural Disasters in Chinese 7 Kundzewicz Z Hirabayashi Y Kanae S. River Floods in the Changing Climate - Observations and Projections J. Water Resources Management Kim Y O Seo S B Jang O J. Flood risk assessment using regional regression analysis J. Natural Hazards Wang Y M Li Z W Tang Z H et al. A GIS - Based Spatial Multi - Criteria Approach for Flood Risk Assessment in the Dongting Lake Region Hunan Central China J. Water Resources Management GIS /AHP J LIU Jiafu LI Jing LIU Jing et al. Integrated GIS /AHP - based flood risk assessment acase study of Huaihe River Basin in China J. Journal of Natural Disasters in Chinese 11. J DU Juan HE Fei SHI Peijun. Integrated flood risk assessment of Xiangjiang River Basin in China J. Journal of Natural Disasters in Chinese 12 Herold C Mouton F. Global flood hazard mapping using statistical peak flow estimates J. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss Jongman B Ward P J Aerts J C J H. Global exposure to river and coastal flooding Long term trends and changes J. Global Environmental Change UNISDR. Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction R. Geneva Switzerland Winsemius H C Van Beek L P H Jongman B et al. A framework for global river flood risk assessments J. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss Dilley M Chen R S Deichmann U et al. Natural Disaster Hotspots A Global Risk Analysis R. World Bank Publications Kok M Huizinga H J Vrouwenvelder A C W M et al. Standard Method 2004 Damage and Casualties Caused by Ooding R. Road and Hydraulic Engineering Institute Netherlands Coles S. An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values M. Springer Kidson R Richards K S. Flood frequency analysis assumptions and alternatives J. Progress in Physical Geography IPCC. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2007 Fourth Assessment Report AR4 R. Cambridge UK and New York USA Cambridge University Press Milly P C D Wetherald R T Dunne K A et al. Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate J. Nature Milly P C D Betancourt J Falkenmark M et al. Stationarity Is Dead Whither Water Management J. Science

% GIS / / Fig. 1 Characteristics of flood disaster variation in suburbs of Shang

% GIS / / Fig. 1 Characteristics of flood disaster variation in suburbs of Shang 20 6 2011 12 JOURNAL OF NATURAL DISASTERS Vol. 20 No. 6 Dec. 2011 1004-4574 2011 06-0094 - 05 200062 1949-1990 1949 1977 0. 8 0. 03345 0. 01243 30 100 P426. 616 A Risk analysis of flood disaster in Shanghai