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1 ( ) : /7/24 : 389/3/0 :.. (EV).. EV. :. C68 D58 L72 : JEL Emal m_h_ma@yahoo.com Emal: dr.hossensadegh@yahoo.com Emal: yousefa60@yahoo.com Emal: sahab_b@modares.ac.r Emal: ghanbar.al@modares..acr ( )
2 / (386) (387). (383) (385) (385) (385) (37) (38) (383) (384).. (kang et al., 2009). (Jmenez & Sanchez, 2005) (Cologn & Manera, 2008) (Reyes & Ragundn, 2005) (Cunado & Graca, 2005)......
3 57 39 ( ) (EV) )..(387. () ()...(385 ) ( )....(386 )
4 / (388 )...(385 ).. (Ferrera & Keely, 999; Ferrera et al., 999; Lustng & Walton, 998) ( ) :.. :. :. :. :
5 59 39 ( ).. (386) (387). OECD (Jmenez & Sanchez, 2005). (Reyes & Ragundn, 2005) (Colong & Manera, 2008) (Sandrne & Mgnon, 2008) (Hamlton, 983). (Morshed & Ptaf, 200). (Mguel et al., 2003) (Coffman, 200) (Dessus, 2008) (Unalms et al., 2008).. (Farzanegan & Markwardt, 2009)...
6 / (387 ) (Mehrara, 2008). (385). (385) (385) (385).. (384).. (38). (383)..
7 6 39 ( ) (Berument, 200). ( ) (Dervs etal., 982)..
8 / (387 ).. ( ). ( )..() :..(Powell, 997).(Lofgren, Harrs and Robnson, 2002)...(Dervs, 982).. ( )..
9 63 39 ( ) PE c : = ( te ). EXR. we c c c CE : : :2 α fa. PVAa. QAα WF f. WFDIST fα = f F, a A QF fα : YFhf = shryhf. WFf. WFDISTfα. QFfα a A h H, f F :3. YH h = YF f F hf + tr, + tr, + EXR. tr h gov h ent h, row h H :4.. 5 QH ch β :5 ch.( ms h )( ty h ). YH h = c C, h H PQ :6 YG = tyh + trgov, ent + shrygov, f. WF f. WFDIST fα. QF fα f : ca F + h H a A tqc.( PDc. QDc + ( PM c. QM c ) + tmcexr. wmc. QM c + tec. EXR. wec. QEc c C c CM c CE EG = trh, gov + PQc. qgc h H c C c :7
10 / (Johansen, 960). ) ( ). ( ) ( 3 ) (384. Sngle-Perod Model 2. Johansen Closure
11 65 39 ( ) ) ) (. (. ( ).(Shoven and Whalley, 992 ). (CV) (EV).(Hcks, 939) (McKenze, 983). :.. EV = E ( U N, P 0 ) E ( U 0, P 0 ) : :0.. y x. max : U ( x, x 2,... x s. t. x = y n ) = π ( x γ ) α. :
12 / (Slberberg,990). 0 α α = : :2 γ γ.. 2 ( y ( y ) ),,2 n α x = γ + ( ) γ =,..... (α ). v (, y ) α = ( ) y γ α :3 : v (, y ) = α y α γ :4. α = α α.(deaton and Muellbauer, 980). α :5 : v α e (, u ) = ( ) + γ α :6 µ ( 0 ;, y :(Varan, 984) ) = e ( o ; v (, y ) :7. Floor 2. Suernumerary
13 67 39 ( ). y 0 : µ ( 0 ;, y ) = y α γ 0 α 0 + γ :8.(Ibd) (, y ) (, 0 y 0 ) EV = µ 0 0 ( ;, y ) y :9.(Ibd).(Frsch, 950) :(Dervs et al., 982) φ = y y γ :20 α = η β γ = : :2. β η : x + α y φ :22 2 : η β =. Frsch Parametr 2. Engel aggregaton condton
14 / η :23. :. η x θ = ; y η = η θ :
15 69 39 ( ) () /38-2/305 2/492 -/969 /850 -/560 /26 -/089 0/597-0/565 3/32-2/30 2/488 -/965 /847 -/557 /24 -/087 0/596-0/564 3/3-2/300 2/487 -/964 /846 -/556 /23 -/086 0/595-0/564 3/30-2/299 2/486 -/963 /846 -/556 /23 -/086 0/595-0/564 3/29 3/29-2/298-2/298 2/486 2/485 -/963 -/962 /845 /845 -/555 -/555 /23 /23 -/086 -/085 0/595 0/595-0/564-0/564 3/28-2/298 2/485 -/962 /845 -/555 /22 -/085 0/595-0/563 3/27-2/297 2/484 -/96 /844 -/555 /22 -/085 0/595-0/563 3/27-2/297 2/484 -/96 /844 -/554 /22 -/085 0/595-0/563 3/26-2/296 2/483 -/960 /843 -/554 /22 -/084 0/595-0/563 2/684 -/935 2/29 -/655 /578 -/34 / /507-0/478 2/652 -/909 2/03 -/633 /558 -/297 / /50-0/472 2/643 -/902 2/096 -/627 /553 -/293 / /499-0/47 2/636 -/896 2/09 -/622 /549 -/289 / /498-0/469 2/63 2/626 -/892 -/888 2/087 2/082 -/69 -/65 /546 /543 -/286 -/283 /04 / /497 0/496-0/468-0/467 2/624 -/886 2/08 -/64 /542 -/282 /0 97 0/495-0/467 2/62 -/883 2/078 -/6 /540 0/280 / /495-0/466 2/66 -/879 2/074 -/608 /537 -/278 / /494-0/465 2/609 -/874 2/069 -/604 /533 -/274 / /492-0/464 :
16 / () /86-3/675 3/87-3/29 2/88-2/473 /899 -/ /980-3/76 3/966-3/203 2/95-2/532 /945 -/ /062-3/822 4/030-3/255 2/999-2/573 /977 -/ /977-3/757 3/962-3/99 2/949-2/529 /943 -/ /965 4/98-3/747-3/759 3/953 3/966-3/9-3/202 2/94 2/95-2/522-2/530 /938 /945 -/755 -/ /883-3/684 3/888-3/38 2/893-2/480 /906 -/ /007-3/778 3/986-3/27 2/966-2/543 /955 -/ /95-3/735 3/942-3/8 2/933-2/54 /933 -/ /494-4/49 4/374-3/533 3/255-2/792 2/45 -/943 /056 -/006 4/33-3/260 3/435-2/776 2/556-2/94 /685 -/527 0/829-0/790 4/395-3/307 3/499-2/88 2/603-2/228 /75 -/55 0/ /293-3/224 3/47-2/747 2/54-2/72 /674 -/53 0/823-0/783 4/296-3/223 3/49-2/747 2/543-2/72 /675 -/53 0/824-0/784 4/294 4/405-3/220-3/303 3/48 3/505-2/744-2/85 2/542 2/607-2/70-2/226 /674 /77 -/52 -/55 0/823 0/844-0/ /290-3/24 3/44-2/739 2/539-2/67 /672 -/509 0/822-0/782 4/32-3/229 3/43-2/752 2/552-2/77 /680 -/57 0/826-0/786 4/502-3/373 3/582-2/875 2/664-2/274 /755 -/584 0/ /66-3/884 4/3-3/309 3/059-2/67 2/06 -/ : (EV). 3.. EV. EV.. EV. EV
17 7 39 ( ) EV. 4. EV 4 ( ) EV ( ).. () /4-328/ 337/8-278/7 25/9-29/7 66/4-52/4 82/ -78/7 755/4-58/8 602/3-494/5 448/9-389/9 296/3-270/7 46/ -39/8 999/4-768/7 796/8-653/5 593/8-55/3 39/9-357/8 93/2-84/8 84/3-908/6 943/9-772/6 703/2-609/4 464/ -423/3 228/7-28/7 385/ 654/7-066/8-267/3 04/3 38/6-906/7-077/7 823/ 982/2-75/0-850/2 543/4 648/ -496/4-590/6 267/9 39/3-256/3-305/2 89/4-450/3 507/3-233/2 22/9-972/8 74/0-675/7 365/2-349/ 244/4-87/0 945/ /3-255/ 956/3-87/8 47/3-450/4 3/2-2395/2 2480/4-2035/9 848/5-605/4 220/3-4/6 60/6-575/6 7040/2-545/3 562/5-4603/2 482/4-3630/0 2760/7-2520/ /7 96/4-73/ 76/8-62/2 57/ -49/ 37/7-34/2 8/5-7/7 9/9-43/4 52/6-22/2 3/4-96/6 74/6-67/3 36/7-34/9 25/4-87/ 99/8-59/5 48/4-26/2 97/7-87/9 48/0-45/6 38/7-237/0 253/3-202/ 88/2-59/9 23/8 -/4 60/8-57/8 387/2 475/6-287/ -353/0 307/7 378/0-244/8-30/ 228/5 280/7-93/8-238/3 50/3 84/7-35/ -66/ 73/8 90/7-70/0-86/ 546/6-405/0 434/3-345/4 322/5-273/4 22/ -90/6 04/2-98/8 674/4-499/4 539/9-425/9 397/9-337/ 26/7-235/0 28/5-2/9 92/0-68/5 73/7-58/3 543/3-460/ 357/2-320/8 75/4-66/4 927/2-438/2 532/3-225/8 38/7-969/6 749/4-675/4 368/3-350/0 :
18 / () (EV) /4-3/4 3/5-2/9 2/6-2./3 /7 -/6 4/6-3/5 3/7-3 2/7-2/4 /8 -/6 4/7-3/6 3/7-3/ 2/8-2/4 /8 -/7-4/6-3/6 3/7-3 2/8-2/4 /8 -/7-4/6 4/6-3/5-3/6 3/6 3/ /7 2/8-2/4-2/4 /8 /8 -/6 -/7-4/5-3/5 3/6-3 2/7-2/3 /8 -/6 4/6-3/6 3/7-3 2/8-2/4 /8 -/7-4/5-3/5 3/6-3 2/7-2/3 /8 -/6 5-3/8 4-3/3 3-2/6 2 -/8-4/3-3/2 3/4-2/8 2/5-2/2 /7 -/5 0/8 4/5-3/3 3/6-2/9 2/6-2/3 /7 -/6 4/4-3/3 3/5-2/8 2/6-2/2 /7 -/5 0/8 4/4-3/3 3/5-2/8 2/6-2/2 /7 -/5 0/8 4/4 4/5-3/3-3/4 3/5 3/6-2/8-2/9 2/6 2/7-2/2-2/3 /7 /8 -/5 -/6 0/8 4/4-3/3 3/5-2/8 2/6-2/2 /7 -/5 0/8 4/4-3/3 3/5-2/8 2/6-2/2 /7 -/5 0/8 4/6-3/4 3/7-2/9 2/7-2/3 /8 -/6 5/2-3/9 4/2-3/3 3/ -2/6 2 -/8 - :.. EV. ). (..
19 73 39 ( ).. ( ) ().....
20 / (387) OECD (387), :. (388) () (383) ( ) (384) (387) (384 ) (38). : ( ) (384) :.( ) (385) (386) (386) OECD OPEC
21 75 39 ( ) (385) (385) (385) () (37). : Berument M. H., N. B. Ceylan and Nukhet Dogan (200). The Imact of Ol Prce Shocks on the Economc Growth of Selected MENA Countres; The Energy Journal, 3(). Burbdge, John & Harrson, Alan (984) Testng for the Effects of Ol-Prce Rses Usng Vector Autoregressons; Internatonal Economc Revew, Deartment of Economcs, Unversty of Pennsylvana and Osaka Unversty Insttute of Socal and Economc Research Assocaton, Vol. 25(2): , June. Coffman, Makena (200) Ol rce shocks n an sland economy: an analyss of the ol rce macroeconomy relatonsh; 44: Cologn, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo (2008) Ol rces, nflaton and nterest rates n a structural contegrated VAR model for the G-7 countres; Energy Economcs, No. 30, Cunado, J. & Perez de Graca, F.(2005) Ol rces, economc actvty and nflaton: evdence for some Asan countres; The Quarterly Revew of Economcs and Fnance, No. 45, De Mguel C., B. Manzano and J. M. Martn-Moreno (2003) Ol Prce Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuatons; The Energy Journal 24(2): Deaton, A. S. & Muellbauer, J. (980) An Almost Ideal Demand System; Amercan Economc Revew, No. 70, Deren Unalms, Ibrahm Unalms and Derya Flz Unsal (2008) Ol Prce Shocks, Macroeconomcs Stablty and Welfare n a Small Oen Economy; Dscusson Paers 08/3, Deartment of Economcs, Unversty of York.
22 / Dervs, K.; J. de Melo, and S. Robnson (982) General equlbrum models for develoment olcy; New York: Cambrdge Unversty Press. Dessus, Sebasten (2008) The short and longer term otental welfare mact of global commodty nflaton n Tanzana; Polcy Research Workng Paer Seres 4760, The World Bank. Farzanegan, Mohamad Reza & Gunther Markwardt (2009) The effects of ol rce shocks on the Iranan economy; Energy Economcs 3: Ferrera, F. and L. Keely (999) The World Bank and Structural Adustment: Lessons from the 980s; Chater 6 n Glbert and Vnes (eds): The World Bank: Structure and Polces; Cambrdge: Cambrdge Unversty Press. Ferrera, F., G. PrennushI, and M. Ravallon (999) Protectng the Poor from Macroeconomc Shocks (August 999); World Bank Polcy Research Workng Paer No Hamlton, J. D. (983) Ol and the macroeconomy snce World War II; Journal of Poltcal Economy, No. 9 (2), Hcks, J. R. (939) Value and Catal; Oxford: Clarendon Press. Hu, Guo & Kevn L. Klesen (2005) Ol Prce Volatlty and U.S.Macroeconomc Actvty; Revew - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Lous; 87,6; ABI/INFORM Global g Jmenez-Rodrguez, Rebeca & Marcelo, Sanchez (2005) Ol rce shocks and real GDP growth: emrcal evdence for some OECD countres; Aled Economcs, No. 37, Johansen, Lef (960) A mult-sectoral study of economc growth; Amsterdam: North-Holland. Kang, S. H., Kang, S. M. and Yoon, S. M. (2009) Forecastng volatlty of crude ol markets; Energy Economcs, No. 3, Layard. R. G. & Walters A. A. (978) Mcroeconomc Theory; New York: McGraw-Hll. Lofgren, Hans; Rebecca, Lee Harrs and Sherman Robnson (2002) A Standard Comutable General Equlbrum (CGE) Model n GAMS; Internatonal Food Polcy Research Insttute. Lustng, N. and M. Walton (998) Crses and the Poor: A Temlate for Acton, World Bank and IADB Note. Makena, Coffman (200) Ol rce shocks n an sland economy: an analyss of the ol rce-macroeconomy relatonsh; The Annals of Regonal Scence 44(3): Mckenze, G. W. (983) Measurng Economc Welfare: New Methods; Cambrdge: Cambrdge Unversty Press.
23 77 39 ( ) Mehrara, Mohsen (2008)The asymmetrc relatonsh between ol revenues and economc actvtes:the case of ol-exortng countres; Energy Polcy 36: Mchael R. Darby (982) The Real Prce of Ol and the 970s World Inflaton; NBER Workng Paers 0629, Natonal Bureau of Economc Research, Inc. Mguel, C.; B. Manzano and J.M. Martn-Moreno (2003) Ol Prce Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuatons; The Energy Journal, Cambrdge MA Then Cleveland Oho. Morshed M. & Ptaf B. A (200) Ol Prce Shocks and Labor Exorts; Mdwest Macroeconomcs Meetngs, Southern Illnos Unversty, Carbondale. owell, A.A. (997) Global trade analyss: Modelng & Alcatons; Massachusetts: Cambrdge. Reyes, R. G. & Ragundn, C. E. (2005) The Efects of Ol Prce Shocks on the Phlne Economy: A VAR Aroach; Workng Paer, Unversty of the Phlnes, School of Economcs. Rotemberg, Julo J. & Woodford, Mchael (996) Imerfect cometton and the effects of energy rce ncreases on economc actvty; Journal of Money, Credt and Bankng, Vol. 4, No. 28, Sandrne, Lardc & Valere Mgnon; (2008) Ol rces and economc actvty: An asymmetrc contegraton aroach; Energy Economcs 30: Shoven, J. B., & Whalley, J. (992) Alyng general equlbrum; New York: Cambrdge Unversty Press. Slberberg, E. (990) The Structure of Economcs; 2nd edton, New York: McGraw-Hll. Stone, J. R. N. (954) Lnear Exendture Systems and Demand Analyss: An Alcaton to the Pattern of Brtsh Demand; Economc Journal, No. 64, Unalms, Deren; Unalms, Ibrahm and Derya Flz Unsal (2008) Ol Prce Shocks, Macroeconomc Stablty and Welfare n a Small Oen Economy; Deartment of Economcs and Related Studes, Unversty of York, Dscusson Paers n Economcs, No. 2008/3. Varan, H. (984) Mcroeconomcs Analyss; Second Edton, New York: Norton.
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