Yap Is. Ulithi Fais Efongun non Pacific Ocean M i c r o n e s i a Ngulu Sorol Faraulep Elato Eauripik Namonuito Satawal Pulap Hall Is. Minto Chuuk Is.

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Yap Is. Ulithi Fais Efongun non Pacific Ocean M i c r o n e s i a Ngulu Sorol Faraulep Elato Eauripik Namonuito Satawal Pulap Hall Is. Minto Chuuk Is. Mortlock Is.

1 Yap Is. Ulithi Fais Efongun non Pacific Ocean M i c r o n e s i a Ngulu Sorol Faraulep Elato Eauripik Namonuito Satawal Pulap Hall Is. Minto Chuuk Is. Mortlock Is. Oroluk Pohnpei PALIKIR Ngatik Mokil Pingelap Kosrae Kapingamarangi Ikenai me Nesor ren usun nonomun fonu, sat, me fan lang non FSM > Federated States of Micronesia National Weather Service Office > Australian Bureau of Meteorology > Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)

Nonomun me fetanen enienin asapwan me pwichin fonu non Micronesia ikenai Non FSM, ese watte ekesiwin wattenon me kisinon pwichin me paten a chok kukun seni 3 tikiri (1.

2 Nonomun me fetanen enienin asapwan me pwichin fonu non Micronesia ikenai Non FSM, ese watte ekesiwin wattenon me kisinon pwichin me paten a chok kukun seni 3 tikiri (1.5 selsius) nefinen fansoun an epwe pwichikareno me fansoun an epwe pateno. A wor ruu sakun nonomun fonu me sat; eu a wor fansoun pwichikar a fis nefinen Nofemper ngeni Eprain, arruan fansoun nukuchochon a fis nefinen May ngeni Oktoper (nengeni esisin. 1) Pungun ran non FSM a chok anongonong won mokutukutun asapwan me noo unukun ewe ikiweitor (ITCZ). Ei muchochun raningaw a fis seni ioion pwichikaren won sat fengen me noongaw o a tongeni forata mannunun kuchu mi esinipato fifi me pach are chopunap. Ei mochuchun raningaw me watten kuchu a nom asan ika asetan ewe ikewitor (fig 2). Fansoun patapat ika raningaw a fis nupwen ewe (ITCZ) eu muchochun asapwan me noo ra pochokununo ika watteno iwe ra mokut eta ika nom asan FSM. Ewe (West Pacific Monsoon) asapwanin notou non Pacific a tongeni awatteno TPwichikar (tikiri F) Pwichikar (tikiri C) pungun ran are fansoun raningaw. Ei asapwanin notou, a fis seni watenon sakofesenin pwichikar fonu me sat, ei watten ekesiwin ren pwichikaren fonu me sat a fis a tongeni forata wattenon raningaw non ekkoch fansoun. Fefetanin me nonomun fonu me sat non FSM ra sakofesen year me year seni ewe (ENSO) ekesiwinin wattenon me kukunon pwichikaran asapwanin ottiw me notou fiti fengen me pwichin me paten won sat. Ei napanapen ekesiwin ren pwichikaren me patan won sat non ottiwen me notoun non Pacific, eu napanap a chok fifis, o iei met a tongeni forata nonomun mokutukukun enienin asepwanin fonu me sat non fonufan. Ekkei ruu napanap ren pwichikareno me pateno asapwanin ottiwen me notoun Pacific sia tongeni weweiti ika a pwichikareno a iteni (El Nino) me atun pateno a iteni (La Nina). Non Pohnpei, mei fis eu fansoun nge ese pwichikareno ika ese pateno. El Nino a tongeni forata pwichikar nap seni pwichikar, nge mi fen pual tongeni watteno raningaw, nap seni raningaw. La Nina, a tongeni forata an epwe fen pual tongeni watteno pungun ran nupwen fansoun pwichikar. Ewe asapwanin noutou a tongeni epwe forata osukosuk ngeni fonuen Chuuk me Yap nap seni founen Pohnpei me Kosrae. Ei asapwanin notou a tongeni an epwe mokut ngeni otiw fansoun El Nino, o forata wattenon pungun ran, iwe nge epwe niwiniti notou nupwen La Nina fiti kukunun pungun ran. Ren ewe ITCZ epwe kukununo pungun ran fansoun El Nino, nge watteno fansoun La Nina. Wattenon pwichikar Koukouchon pwichikar Kukununon pwichikar Pwichikaren won sat Pohnpei, ºE, 6.97ºN Yap, 138.8ºE, 9.48ºN Pungun ran non eu maram (mm) Pungun ran non eu maram (insis) Pwichikar (tikiri F) San Eprain Sunae Oktoper San Eprain Sunae Oktoper Esisin 1: Nonomun pungun ran me pwichikarenon non Pohnpei me Yap. Pwichikar (tikiri C) Pungun ran non eu maram (mm) Pungun ran non eu maram (insis) Nenien inen waa, Pohnpei. 2

Federated States of Micronesia I n t e r t r o p i c a l 2oN Z o n e C o n v e r g e n c e Kiribati So ut h Solomon Islands Tuvalu Pa cif ic Fiji Vanuatu Co nve rge nc e Niue Samoa Tonga 5 16oW 17oW

15oW Palau 1oN H Ekkewe mettoch mi afeingaw ngeni fonu me aramas Pwaas, taifun, noo watte, nononon neni, me sonun pun ra fakkun afeingaw ngeni fonuen FSM.

3 Federated States of Micronesia I n t e r t r o p i c a l 2oN Z o n e C o n v e r g e n c e Kiribati So ut h Solomon Islands Tuvalu Pa cif ic Fiji Vanuatu Co nve rge nc e Niue Samoa Tonga 5 16oW 17oW 18o 17oE 16oE 15oE 14oE 13oE 12oE H 11oE 1oS Papua New Guinea M o n East Timor s o o n o Tr a d e W i n d s Cook Islands Zo ne 1, 2, 1,5 2oS l Kilometres 3oS poo Nauru 14oW Wa r m Marshall Islands 15oW Palau 1oN H Ekkewe mettoch mi afeingaw ngeni fonu me aramas Pwaas, taifun, noo watte, nononon neni, me sonun pun ra fakkun afeingaw ngeni fonuen FSM. El Nino ra forata pwichikareno neni me pwaseno fonu. Ekkeei, osupwang konik me osupwangen mongo ra fis nupwen a watteno pwasen neni. Nupwen La Nina a esinapato chommongeno watten asepwan non FSM.. Johannes Berdon, National Weather Service Office Esisin 2: Koukun me nenien ekkewe mettoch ra forata ekesiwinin nonomun fonu me sat seni Nofemper ngeni Eprain. Ekkewe eerier ren asapwanin won fonu me sat, ewe mi arau eerier a esisinata muchochen raningaw, ewe mi chok erino a aiti ngeni kich usun eu muchochun pwichikaren ioien asapwanin notou, ewe H a aiti ngeni kich usun asapwanin asan. Tanon neni seni watteno noo, Oneop, Chuuk. 3

4 Ekesiwinin nonomun enienin asepwan, pungun ran me pwichikaren non FSM. Pwichikar a watteno Koukun pwichikar are napenon pwichikar me kukununon pwichikar a watte ekesiwinino non Pohnpei seni ewe year 1952 (fikur 3). Watteno pwichikar a watteno ren ukukun chok.19 tikiri F (.1 tikiri C) non ukukun engon year. Ei watteno pwichikar a pungfengen me met fonufan a fen nenengeni. Ukukuochun pwichikar ( tikiri C) Esisin 3: Koukun pwichikar non Pohnpei. Year Ewe eerier mi araw a aiti ngeni kich usun El Nino, ewe eerier mi choon a aiti ngeni kich fansoun La Nina, iwe ewe mi anuotop a aiti ngeni kich fansoun nuua, ese wor met a fis Pungun ran (mm) Fansoun pwichikar Fansoun raningaw 1955 Fansoun pwichikar Fansoun raningaw Koukun pungun ran no Pohnpei a kukununo. Seni 195 ren Pohnei tori ikenai sia kuna pwe pungun ran a kukununo (esisin 4) nge renpwichikar ese kon nien fatafatoch. Ren Yap ese wor met epwe pwarata usun ekesiwinin pungun ran. Nge non ekkei fansoun sia kuna pwe pungun ran non ekkei ruu neni mei chok ekesiwin napanapan, watteno ika kukununo. Year Esisin 4: Ukukun ran no Pohpei eu year. Ewe eerier mi araw a aiti ngeni kich fansoun El Nino year, ewe eerier mi arawechon a aiti ngeni kich ekkewe yearin La Nina, pwe ewe eerier mi toputop a aiti ngeni kich fansoun nuua, ika ese met a fis Ukukuochun pwichikar ( tikiri F) Pungun ran (inis) Sat a tekiano Fan iten an sat a pwichikareno, iei met a forata an sat a poota are tekiano. Teninon ekkewe foumongun me choon ice ra pual forata an sat a tekiano. Ekkewe satellites me ekkewe nenien nengeni mokutukutun sat (tide gauges) ra tongeni pual aiti ngeni kich usun mokutukutun me napanapen usun setich kewe. Ekkei mwesin are pekin nengeni ra aiti ngeni kich nge pwe a ukukun.39 inis (1 mm) ren eu year tekianon sat seni non ewe year Ei ukukun ai aiti ngeni kich nge ei kouk a nap seni ukukun koukun tekianon sat non fonufan ( inis ( mm) non eu year. Ei watteno tekianon sat non fonuach mei tongeni pwe a fis seni pwisin met a fis non neniach kei non ekkei year ika nefinen engon year seni nom tori ikenai ika esinapen El Nino- Southern Oscillation. Watteno chonungaweno sat (acidification Ina epwe ukukun eu neranu (1/4) carbon dioxide a tou seni aramas a mochuno non ewe sat iteiten year. Nupwen a watteno ei carbon dioxide ika ei och sakkun kas non ewe sat, a forata an ewe sat epwe ne chonungaweno. Iei met a tongeni forata an epwe angaweno manawen ekkewe ooch me monun non sat, iwe a tongeni forata kokotongawen manauen man me iran neset; o a tongeni angaweno ach kewe ooch. Taropwe a pwarata pwe seni ewe 18th century koukun ewe chonungaw a watteno non setin FSM. Fansoun auku pwichikar, Pohnpei Weather Service Office. 4

Met epwe fis ren nonomun fonu me sat non Federated States of Micronesia Nonomun fonu me sat non FSM ra tongeni ekesiwini usun nonomun aramas non FSM.

Ifa usun an ekkewe mi sinenapei usun nonomun fonu me sat anapanapa usun mokutukutun non neniach Ekkewe pisekin nenengeni usun nonomun fonu me sat ra tongeni anisi kich ach sipwe weweiti usun nonomun

5 Met epwe fis ren nonomun fonu me sat non Federated States of Micronesia Nonomun fonu me sat non FSM ra tongeni ekesiwini usun nonomun aramas non FSM. Iei popun ach weweiti usun met epwe fis nesor me pennon a tongeni anisi aramas me ach mu ar repwe sinei met repwe fori me akotat ren tumunun nonomun manauen aramas nesor me pennon. Ifa usun an ekkewe mi sinenapei usun nonomun fonu me sat anapanapa usun mokutukutun non neniach Ekkewe pisekin nenengeni usun nonomun fonu me sat ra tongeni anisi kich ach sipwe weweiti usun nonomun me mokutun fonu me saat. Ekkei piskein nengeni ra anongonong won pekin aritmetik iei met a tongeni forata ekkewe computer mi fakkun tipachem. Ekkei sakun mwesin ika computers ra anongonong won ekkewe tipachemen a fis seni weweiti usun napanapan me mokutukutun fan lang, won sat, won fonu tori ekkewe foun ice. Mei chommong pekin nenengeni usun climate non fonufan nge mi wor ar sakofesen. Ekkewe scientists seni ewe Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP) ra aea ukukun 24 sakkun napanapan nenengeni usun climate, 18 me neir ra aea ne nenengeni non notoun Pacific. Ekkei 18 pisekin nenengeni ra aea ne nenengeni napanapan me mokutukutun climate non FSM. Mokutun me nonomun nesor ren sia tongeni weweiti ren ach sipwe nengeni metekewe mi pusin fifis me pual metekewe kich aramas sia fofori ra tongeni pual anapano ika ekesiwini usun nonomun me mokutun fonu me sat. Pokiten sise tongeni sinei met porausen nesor, sia tongeni chok anongonong won met a fen fifis ach sipwe tongeni anapanap epwe ifa usun porausen nesor me pennon. Ewe eu kinikinin non government a iteni (IPCC) a fori ekkoch anapanap anongonong won met epwe fis ngeni aramas mwach kan, nonomun tufichin fonu, me kanepenon tufichin ekkewe pisekin nenengeni. Awewe, ewe A1B (ika medium) ren usun pwichikar mi tou seni fonufan non fansoun ra chommongono aramas me met epwe fis murin nupwen aramas repwe chokukununo, ika pual fansoun watteno tufichin nonomun fonu, me pual ochunon me murinno non ekkoch pisekin angang. Ekkewe sakun kas a forata pwichikaren fonu, a wor ekkoch pisekin nengeni sia tongeni aea ach sipwe weweiti met epwe tongeni fis mwachkan. A wor unungat napanapan ach nenengeni usun climate non FSM. kukununon (B1), nefinan (A1B) me wattenon (A2) seni 23, 255, me 29. (Esisin 5). Pokiten eu me eu ekkei pisekin nengeni mei sakofesen ren met ra pwarata, sia tongeni chok aea ach sipwe nengeni me weweiti met epwe fis nefinen ekkei fansoun Figure 5: Nonon Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) (kinikinin ren eu million, ppm) fiti fengen me unungat IPCC napanapen niwininuoun pwichikar, kukunun (B1-arau), ukukuochun niwininoun pwichikar (A1B- enuen fetin) me wattenon pwichikar mi tou seni Nonon CO2 (ppm) Johannes Berdon, National Weather Service Office Tanon pisek seni watteno sat, Lekinioch, Chuuk. Fansoun kaeo ngeni pekin Climate non ewe offesin Weather Service, Pohnpei. 5

Usun me nonomun fonu me sat non fonuen Federated States of Micronesia Iei mesenapen nonomun climate ren FSM. Ren napenon porausen kopwe nengeni Volume 2 ren ewe Climate Change non Pacific.

Pwichikar epwe fetan ngeni an epwe watteno Pekin nengin ra aiti ngeni kich nge pwichikar enienin asapwan tori pwichin won sat repwe watteno non ekan ran mwach non FSM (chepen 1).

6 Usun me nonomun fonu me sat non fonuen Federated States of Micronesia Iei mesenapen nonomun climate ren FSM. Ren napenon porausen kopwe nengeni Volume 2 ren ewe Climate Change non Pacific. Minafon pekin nenengeni me ewe web-based ren napanapen climate tori ewe Pacific Climate Futures ra nom won ewe Pwichikar epwe fetan ngeni an epwe watteno Pekin nengin ra aiti ngeni kich nge pwichikar enienin asapwan tori pwichin won sat repwe watteno non ekan ran mwach non FSM (chepen 1). Non 23, non eu anapanap ika pwe e pwichikareno, iwe epwe napeno ren ukukun tikiri F (.4-1. tikiri C) napengeni epwe fis otuen fonuen Federated States of Micronesia, me pual tikiri F ( tikiri C) notoun Federated States of Micronesia. Ran nupwen epwe fakkun pwichikar Ekesiwinin napanapen pungun ran Meinisin ekkewe pisekin nengeni ren climate, ra aiti ngeni kich nge ukukun pungun raan me fansoun pungun ran epwe napeno non 21st century. Iwe nge esap wewen nge iei met epwe fis pokiten mi wor ekkoch ekkewe pisekin nengeni mi sakoseni pual ekkewe ekoch. Iwe ra nengeni nge pwas non ei century ika non ei fansoun epwe kukununo. Fansoun an epwe watte pungun raan Pekin nenengeni ra aiti ngeni kich nge epwe watteno fansoun pungun raan. Watteno pwichikar epwe forata an epwe chommongono ran repwe pwichikareno, nepwin epwe pual pwichikareno, Chepen 1: Koukun patapat ukukun epwe pwichikar pual ren eu year non FSM a anongonong won kukununo. unungat napanap me fansoun. Ikewe ie a tori 9% ina koukun ekkewe pisekin nengeni ra tongeni nengeni nefinen ewe year 198 ngeni Fansoun kukununon asepwan ika taifun Anongonong won an fonufan nenengeni, napanapan nge epwe kukununo taifun tori muchunon ei 21st century. Mei tufich nge epwe watteno pochokunen asepwan non taifun nge epwe nefinen 2% ngeni 11% me watteno pungun ran seni 2% seni non eu taifun tori 1km seni nukanapan ewe taifun. Federated States of Micronesai e nom non ewe kinikin ikewe ie epwe kukununo fansoun an epwe wor asepwan watte ika taifun ( F) (ºC) ( F) (ºC) ( F) (ºC) Otiwen FSM Kukunun Ukukuochun Wattenon Notoun FSM Kukunun Ukukuochun Wattenon Ewe pupun konik Kepirohi, Pohnpei. 6

Tekian won sat epwe watteno Tekianon sat mei tongeni pwe epwe napano mwach kan non FSM. (chepen 2 me esisin 6). Seni 23, non eu sakkun anapanap, ena tekianon sat epwe nom nefinen 1.2-5.

7 Tekian won sat epwe watteno Tekianon sat mei tongeni pwe epwe napano mwach kan non FSM. (chepen 2 me esisin 6). Seni 23, non eu sakkun anapanap, ena tekianon sat epwe nom nefinen inis (3-15 cm). Ei tekianon sat fiti fengen me met epwe fis non ekkan year, a tongeni forata wateno sat seni monumon me tanon unukun fonu. Iei mo pwe mi chiwen wor met sipwe kaeo ngeni ach sipwe weweiti usun ekkewe choon ice seni non Antarctica me Greenland ren met repwe tongeni fori ngeni tekianon sat, ekkewe sou tipachem (scientists) ra esinesin nge mei tongeni pwe sat non ekkan fansoun repwe tekiano. Nenengaweno sat epwe napano Anongonong won ekkewe unungat anapanap (kukunon, nefinan, me watteno) chonungawen ren ewe sat epwe napano non FSM tori nesoponon 21st century, anongonong won ewe kouk, an sat epwe tekiano. Wattenon chonungawenon sat epwe tongeni forata an epwe angawano manauen ekkewe me tanon ekkewe och. Nonon matau seni watten asepwan me wattenon atawa ik, epwe tongeni puan forata osupwangeno ngeni ewe sat.. Chepen 2: Sea-level rise projections for the Federated States of Micronesia for three emissions scenarios and three time periods. Values represent 9% of the range of the models and changes are relative to the average of the period (in) (cm) (in) (cm) (in) (cm) Kukunun Ukukuochun Wattenon Tanon puna seni an sat a tonong non ewe fonu, Lekinioch, Chuuk. Johannes Berdon, National Weather Service Office Esisin 6: Koukun me napanapen mokutukutun sat unukun FSM. Koukun sat a eerier mi arauechoon (koukun sat seni ekkewe pisekin nengeni) a esisin mi arawfat (met satellite a auku seni ewe year 1993). Anapanapen mokutun sat unukun FSM seni ewe year 195 mi enuen intiko. Ewe anapanap ren A1B (nefinan) ren pwichikar mi tou seni fonu (a ukukun 9% met a pwarata ren ekkewe anapanapan nengeni meinisin) eerier enuen fetin seni 199 ngeni 21. Ewe erino a kouk won 9% anongonong won met a fis seni year me year ren mokutun sat. Tekian won sat anongonong won 199 (cm) Anapanapan forutan Tekian satellite Mwesinen auku tekian saat (6) Met epwe fis Tekian won sat anongonong won 199 (inis) Year 7

8 Ekesiwinin nonomun fonu me sat non FSM > Pwichikar a fen watteno, o epwe napano o epwe fis pwe ekkoch ran mwach kan repwe fakkun pwichikareno. > Ukukun pungun ran seni 1952 a kukununo non Pohnpei, iwe nge non Yap ese wor ekesiwin. Napanapan nge pungun ran epwe watteno mwach kan, mei tongeni fis pwe mwach kan pungun ran epwe fen watteno nge epwe kukununo pwaasen fonu. > Nesopon ei century, napanapan nge epwe chokukuno asapwan mi pochokun (typhoons) o pochokuner repwe pual kukununo. > Tekian sat non FSM a napeno, iwe mei tongeni epwe watteno non unusen ei century. > Ngawenon sat a fen watteno non setin FSM. Iwe mei tongeni pwe epwe fen watteno mwach kan o epwe tongeni forata ngaweno manauen non sat. Masowen ei taropwe a fis seni tipeeun me angang fengen nefinen ekkewe ofesin Weather Service Offices non FSM fiti fengen me ewe Pacific Climate Change Science Program- eu kinikin an mun Australia aninis ren nenengeni tumunun fonu me aramas. Angangen ei taropwe a fis seni an ewe Pacific Climate Change Science Program anongonong won met ewe 27 IPCC Aruanun Nenengeni Report. Ren auchean me tichikin porausen nonomun fonu me aramas non Federated States of Micronesia me ewe Pacific, ka tongeni pual kuna me non ewe Climate Change non Pacific Scientific Assessment me New Research Ewin Kinikin 1: Regional Overview, Kinikin 2: ekkewe report seni eu me eu ekkewe fonu. Ren om kopwe sineochu ekkei poraus, ka tongeni kokori ekkei napanan ofesin National Weather Service Office: web: phone: web: phone: web: phone: Pacific Climate Change Science Program partners 211.

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