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绸镡毛
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1 Adapting climate change techniques in dry land of Agropastoral ecotone of Northern China 1

2 content 1 Back ground and characteristic of climate change in china 2 Impact of climate change on agriculture and grassland in Agropastoral ecotone 3 Assessment methods of climate change 4 Adapting climate change techniques of agriculture and pasture 2

3 1 Back ground and characteristic of climate change in china Methods of climate change analysis Climate factors variation with years at single weather station Spatial distribution of climate factors and its change Extreme weather and climate events 3

4 Mid-parts of agro-pastoral precipitation : mm days of nofrost :

5 Back ground about climate change Climate change in China 5 (2006)

6 Climate change in China Inner Mongolia,CCC 6

7 Climate change in China The precipitation increased in west and south China, decreased in north and north-east China in past 50 years,ccc 7

8 Precipitation in Beijing Mean values of 30 years mean value:379.4mm Huhhot mm mm 8

9 Climate change of typic station in Inner Mongolia Grassland of Inner Mongolia 9

10 /decade Annual temperature( ) Siziwang Huade Duolun years Variation of annual average temperature in 3 counties of Inner Mongolia 10

11 Annual temperature( ) Temperature increase: 0.39 /decade Wuchuan years Variation of annual average temperature in Wuchuan counties of InnerMongolia 11

12 Xilinhot y = x R 2 = P Variation of annual average temperature in Xilinhot and Sonid zuoqi of InnerMongolia Sonid zuoqi y = x R 2 = P

13 Difference from mean annual temperature( ) years Variation of difference of annual average temperature of 3 counties (Sizhiwang,Huade,Duolun,)in InnerMongolia 13

14 precipitation (mm) years Variation of precipitation of Sizhiwang in InnerMongolia annual precipitation (mm) precipitation (mm) from Apri. To Sept. 14

15 Huade precipitation (mm) years Variation of annual and growth season precipitation of Huade in InnerMongolia annual precipitation (mm) precipitation (mm) from Apri. To Sept. 15

16 Duolun precipitation (mm) years Variation of precipitation of Duolun in InnerMongolia annual precipitation (mm) precipitation (mm) from Apri. To Sept. 16

17 Wuchuan precipitation (mm) years Variation of precipitation of Wuchuan in InnerMongolia annual precipitation (mm) 17

18 Wuchuan precipitation (mm) years Variation of precipitation of Wuchuan in InnerMongolia precipitation (mm) from Apri. To Sept. 18

Jungar Qi 700 600 500 precipitation (mm) (mm) 400 300 200 100 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

19 Jungar Qi precipitation (mm) (mm) years Variation of precipitation of Zhunger in InnerMongolia Annual precipitation (mm) 19

20 Days of higher temperature >30 increase Days of lower temperature <0 decrease 20

21 Since 1994 Days of higher temperature variation 21

22 Days of lower temperature variation Since

23 极 10d/10a Days of T>30 Increase:10d/10a 5d/10a Days of T<0 decrease:5d/10a 23

(1957-2006) in Hebei Spatial distribution of

24 Climate change in Hebei Province Spatial distribution of days of higher temperature ( ) in Hebei Spatial distribution of days change of higher temperature ( ) in Hebei 24

Spatial distribution of days of lower temperature (1957-2006) in Hebei

25 Spatial distribution of days of lower temperature ( ) in Hebei Spatial distribution of days change of lower temperature ( ) in Hebei 25

26 26

27 Decrease of precipitation make yields of crop reduce Annual precipitation 2004: 350.2mm 2005: 253.6mm Yield ratio of 2005 to 2004 Crop area and yield of Wuchuan county,inner Mongolia (ha)area (t) Output (kg/ha) Yield (ha)area (t) Output (kg/ha) Yield Wheat Maize millet

28 lower precipitation make yields of crop reduce If soil is drought, the wheat yield will be very low in Wuchuan county, Inner Mongolia 28

29 Impact of Climate on environment of Agro-pastoral ecotone Drought and windy make surface soil erosion and the crop yield low. soil erosion by wind in Agro-pastoral ecotone (2003,wuchuan ) 29

30 If there is no enough rainfall for long time, the crop need complementary irrigation to survive, otherwise it will die. 30

31 The grassland biomass and biodiversity were different under different climate specially in different precipitation 31

32 锡林浩特针茅半干旱草原 Xilinhot drought grasland 32

33 Abaga Qi 33

34 苏尼特左旗半荒漠草原 Sonid zuoqi semi-desert grassland 34

35 Sonid Youqi 35

36 Impact of Climate on biomass and plant biodiversity in grassland The relationship between mean temperature and biodiversity in sample site 36

37 37 Biomass(g/m2) Grassland

38 Impact of Climate on biomass and plant biodiversity in grassland 3. 0 Bi odi ver si t y I ndex x ym = e R 2 = ys = x x R 2 = Dr ough I ndex The relationship between mean drought index and biodiversity in sample site 38

39 Impact of Climate on biomass and plant biodiversity in grassland x 2 The relationship between mean precipitation and biomass in sample site 39

40 3 Assessment methods of impacts of climate change on Agro-pasture Analysis methods of statstics Based on bioclimatic index Impact on yield and quality Analysis on plant system change Analysis on agroclimatic region change Vegetation-climate area and its displacement Analysis based on crop model and GIS 40

41 Analysis based on crop model and GIS Grid Soil Site soil cropmodel Model Cal. Test data Site climate Crop parameter Climate Change scenario Agricultural System assessment model Regional grid parameter of crop and measure Adaptive Practices in grids Based map fit grid GIS showed Output for grids Bioclimate model, LAI, Biomass, carry capacity 41

42 Main crop models use in climate assessment DSSAT APSIM WOFOST ORYZA

43 4 43

44 Countermeasure and strategy for adapting climate change Adjusting structure of Agriculture and pasture husbandry Adjusting structure of plant Adjusting structure of variety Adjusting management measure Increasing land productive capability Keep away risk of extreme climate event and disaster Lower carbon agriculture Cycle agriculture 44

45 Agro-Experimental station in Wuchuan,Inner Mongolia Location: 111º28 E 41º N 1600m 45

46 1 Plant patterns for preventing from sand Biotic fense strip intercrop And preserving stubble Crop plant pattern + Shrub+ grass Biotic fense by Shrub 46

47 Strip intercrop and rotating crop technique Sunflower as Biotic fense 47

48 Intercrop between pea and maize as feed for stock raising Farming for stock raising 48

49 Intercrop between rape and potato as cash crop for making money 49

50 preserving stubble of rape to protect field planting potato from erosion by wind 50

51 preserving stubble to protect field planted potato from erosion by wind, to reduce the sand and dust storm Sunflower stubble Oats stubble Field Planted potato 51

52 preserving stubble to protect field planting potato from erosion by wind and saving snow Oats stubble Field Planted potato Saving snow 52

53 (2) grassland Enclosure grassland for Rotating pasture 53

54 (3) Rainwater collection and complementary irrigation is important measure to improve agricultural production in Lossial Plateau Water vault for collecting rainwater corn Complementary irrigation lucerne 54

55 Course of collecting rainwater Rooftop,field, road surface 55

56 Different Surface for collecting rainwater Road Water vault complementary irrigation terrace Collecting rainwater directly in the field 56

57 taking up water from vault By Diver pump By Sun energy By manpower pump By Wind power 57

58 58

59 (4) Plant crop in ridge and furrow mulching 59

60 60 2

61 rainfall collection in field

62 ridge 2008年 CK 62

63 7-7 63

65 Potato Bean CK Ridge 65

66 Thinking of difficulty about climate change research Uncertainty of output of CGMs and climate change scenarios Uncertainty of crop model Less Data for research the impact of climate change on agriculture and pasture Uncertainty of keeping away Climate risk probability of agriculture Extreme climate events increase in climate change Lower carbon agriculture and food securityafe 66

67 Thanks 67

1 GIS 95 Y = F y + (1 F) (1) 0 0 Y0 kg/hm 2 /day F y 0 y c kg/hm 2 /day [12] y m 20 kg/hm 2 /hour Y = cl cn ch G [ F( y ) T m yo + (2) (1 F)(

1 GIS 95 Y = F y + (1 F) (1) 0 0 Y0 kg/hm 2 /day F y 0 y c kg/hm 2 /day [12] y m 20 kg/hm 2 /hour Y = cl cn ch G [ F( y ) T m yo + (2) (1 F)( 24 1 Vol.24 No.1 94 2008 1 Transactions of the CSAE Jan. 2008 2008 1 100094 2 100035 3 100081 4 100081 5 100101 GIS ( ) 65.12 16.82 13.74 15.27 11.07 t/(hm 2 a) 10.93% 41.43% 46.93% 65.4%. Bi Jiye, Zhu