2003 MBA 600795 SWOT
Abstract After over ten years development, Chinese securities market has experienced from nothing to something, from small to large and the course of being standardized. To all securities markets, serious gambling is the inevitable problem in their early development and the return to their real value is their end result. The excellent performance of blue-chip stocks in 2003 has withdrawn the curtain of Chinese securities market returning to its real value. This thesis is written under this background. I want to use the knowledge what I learnt in my MBA period to analyze the real value of SP Power Development CO..LTD. This thesis includes six chapters: Chanpter : Chiefly Introduce the history of the SP Power Development CO..LTD. and the aims of its evaluation. Chapter : Introduce the evaluating methods and choose the accurate model for the SP Power Development CO..LTD. s evaluation. Chapter : Introduce the China electric power industry and forecast it s trend in the near future. Chapter : Financial analysis and SWOT analysis. Chapter : According to the analysis ahead, forecast the SP Power Development CO..LTD. s performance. Chapter : According to the analysis and forecast ahead, evaluate the real value of SP Power Development CO..LTD., give some suggestion to investors and conclude the result. Key words: SP Power Development CO..LTD.; Evalueate; Cash flow.
...1...2... 2 2000-2003... 3... 5...7... 7... 8... 9...13... 13... 15... 17... 18...23... 24... 29... 39... 42 SWOT... 43...49... 49... 50
... 51...58 WACC... 58... 60... 64... 65... 67...68...69...79
Contents Preface... 1 Chapter One The Chief Introduction of the SP Power Development CO..LTD. and the aims of its evaluation... 2 Section Chief Introduction of the SP Power Development CO..LTD. 2 Section Mmain operation introduction of Power Development CO..LTD.from 2000 to 2003... 3 Section The aims of the evaluation... 5 Chapter Tow The Evaluation Model Choice... 7 Section Relative comparison method... 7 Section Contingent claim valuation method... 8 Section Discounted cash flow method... 9 Chapter Three The Analysis of China Electric Power Industry... 13 Section Relationships between China Electric Power Industry and China Macroeconomic... 13 Section The development of China Electric Power Industry at present... 15 Section The effect of system reformant on China Electric Power Industry... 17 Section The development trend of China Electric Power Industry... 19 Chapter Four Financial Analysis... 23 Section Accounting quality analysis... 24 Section Financial analysis... 29 Section Structure and trend analysis of its capital and profit... 39 Section Synthetical analysis of finance... 42 Section SWOT analysis... 43 Chapter Five Performance Forecast... 49 Section Forecast interval choice... 49 Section Assumption of the future performance... 50
Section Performance forecast moderation... 51 Chapter Six Evaluation and Suggestion... 58 Section WACC evaluation... 58 Section The real value evaluation... 60 Section Sensitivity analysis... 64 Section Suggestion... 65 Section Results... 67 Main Reference... 68 Appendixes... 69 Postscript... 79
1 2002 11 2003 21 2006 2003 MBA
2 1992 [1992]68 1992 12 31 1997 3 18 5100 1280 600795 1997 1 402 292 736 351 947 981 1-1 1-2 1-1 4 1997.03.18 2003 1 17 41 1-2 A 140229.2736 35194.7981 105034.4755 100% 25.1% 74.9% 2003 8 2000 2000 2 15
3 2003 2003 18 2003 173 43.9% 2003 227 40 1410 2000-2003 2003 12 31 10 1 13 2000 85.13 2003 227.49 44% 2000 43.59% 2003 65.92% 1-3
4 1-3 2000-2003 2000 2001 2002 2003 85.13 88.83 176.92 227.49 37.11 36.5 112.59 149.97 39.86 42.78 48.19 54.14 8.16 9.55 16.14 23.38 43.59% 41.1% 63.64% 65.92% 2000-2003 1-1 250 200 150 100 50 0 1-1 2000-2003 2000 2001 2002 2003 2000-2003 92.64% 7.36% 29.55% 30.50% 19.88% 16.46%
5 1-4 1-4 2000-2003 3130.66 924.98 29.55% 100% 2900.34 884.61 30.50% 95.64% 71.9 14.29 19.88% 1.54% 158.42 26.08 16.46% 2.82% 2000-2003 1-2 1-3 2000-2003 1-2 2000-2003 1-3 2000-2003 MBA
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7 / / / / [ ] Aswath Damodaran
8 1 2 3 4 20
9 t= n CFt = t ( 2-1) t 1 (1 r) n = CF = t t = + r = CF t r 1 t= DPSt = ( 2-2) t 1 (1 R ) t= +
10 DPS t = R = DPS R 2 FCFE 1 FCFE = + - - - + t = FCFE 1 (1 R ) 2-3 t = t 2-4 t = + R 2001 8
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