-
1993 First NameMiddle NameLast Name ii
.1...1...4 4..12 1..12 2..23. 32..33..41 ().41 1...41 2...42 3...42 (1)...42 (2)...43 ().43 1..43 2..44 ().49 ()1. 50 2....50 3....50 4....51 5....51 6....51...51...53...54.54-38.56-1949..62.68.68.74 iii
iv 79 83.86 -..87 96 96..100 102...104..104..107.118..119 122 124...125.125.128...129.129.132.136.143.158..159..160 1990. 177 1996.207.263 / 1990 265 / 1996 267
1-1.. 7 1-2.. 7 1-3.. 8 1-4.. 8 1-5.40 1-6.44 1-7 46 1-8.47 1-9.48 1-10...49 2-1.68 2-2....69 2-3.70 2-4. 72 2-5.75 2-6 90...76 2-7 96...77 2-8.78 2-9....80 2-10...81 3-1.88 3-2....89 3-3.91 3-4.... 92 3-5.93 3-6.94 3-7.95 3-8 -... 97 3-9 - 99 4-1 41-81 107 4-2...108 4-3...109 4-4...109 4-5...110 4-6...110 4-7...110 4-8...110 4-9...111 4-10 -....113 4-11.114 4-12 1990 -...114 v
4-13 1996 -...115 4-14 1990 1996.115 5-1...123 vi
1-1.. 4 1-2.. 5 1-3..33 2-1..85 vii
89 2 Centralism and Localism: A Comparative Study on Local Elite s Attitude Across chi 8100803 Taiwan Straits 268 Tsai Tien Chu Dr. Richard H. Yang Dr. Show Duan Hawang Centralism Localism Local Elite
Democracy differs from oligarchy not in the presence or absence of an elite who wield most influence, but in the closed or open, representative or unrepresentative, responsible or irresponsible character of the elite. Harold D. Lasswell, 1952 localism or regionalism 19951 1995 85 85 88 2000 79 1 83 intergovernmental relation 2 85 42 11-21 76 10-11 64 115-116 86 49 88 4 81 83 7 39-1
V.O. Key, 1961: 481-494 Robert Dahl, 1961: 325-331 Samuel J. Eldersveld drive 1995: 179 Teune, 1995:12 88 1 3 1987 7 1989 1 1992 1992 5 1994 6 1994 1996 1980 550,000 1982 1988 Shen, Mingming, A Policy-Driven Elite Transformation and Its Outcomes: A Case Study of The New Local Elites in China Ph.D. Dissertation. University of Michigan. 1994pp.1-3. 4 2
Democracy and Local Governance Kant,1975:20-21 Gordon Skilling 1960 5 6 88 143 50 2000 13-17 3
1-1 1-1 7 intergovernmental relation 1998 4
1-2 1. ( ) 1. A. ( 2. ) 1. ( ) B. 2. 1-2 1-2 8 6 88 1-2 17-31 5
88 16 1. 88 15 / 78 109 42 11-21 76 10-11 64 115-116 9 10 87 21 82 9 2 2-16 86 460 11 70 177-180 12 78 8 501 78 311-312 6
7 86 49 77 199 A. Comte G.W.F. Hegel 13 1-1 1-2 1-1 86 59 1-2 86 58 77 203 13 A. Comte organic solidarity of society G.W.F. Hegel 14 86 58-64 15 55-58
88 626 16 1-3 17 1-4 1-3 86 75 86 74 16 L. J. Sharpeed., Decentralist Trends in Western Democracies, 1979, pp. 32-33. 17 14 74-82 18 14 72-74 14 64-6782-84 8 18 8
88 18 Vincent Wright Sabino Cassese 42 4-5 location of powers division of functions service function David Easton stable equilibrium Hebbert and Mackin eds., 198411-20108-111. L.J. Sharpe Sharpe ed., 197933. 2. 88 15 81 156 80 116-117 77 137-138 88 22 9
78 279 87 167-169 87 170-171 88 23 1. Intergovernmental Relation, IGR 10
Reagan, 1972 88 23-24 2. 1 1953 1965 42 10,041 3,232 87 73-79 88 23-24 2 3 1995 87 90-91 110 2 11
84 145-152 20 subject 1,722 community power structure the influentials decision-maker 23 20 21 88 22 2000 23 Comprehensive Dissertation Index, Vol. Law and Political Science Xerox University Microfilms, Ann Arbor, Michigan, 1997 12
Beck et.al., 1965: 39 elite perspective elite formations Lasswell, Lerner, and Rothwell, 1952: 43-72 general surveys theoretical contributions comparative studied analysis of trends Quandt, 1970: 215-216 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 1861 1996 elite 295 24 Robert D. Putnam1976 The Comparative Study of Political Elites, Englewood Cliffs, N. J.: Prentice Hall. 37 25 Politician Bureaucratic Lasswell, Harold D., Daniel Lerner and C. Easton RothwellThe Comparative Study of Elites: An Introduction and Bibliography. Stanford, California: Stanford University Press.1952 52-57 26 63-65 27 57-59 28 59-61 Bottomore, T. B., Elites and Society. Harmondsworth, Middlesex, England: Penguin Books Ltd. reprinted 1982p.154. 29 Aberbach, Joel D. and Bert A. Rockman, The Overlapping Worlds of American Federal Executives and Congressmen, British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 71977Part1, pp.23-47. Administratives Beliefs about The Role of The Public: The Case of American Federal Executives, Western Political Quarterly, Vol. 31(December 1978) pp.502-522. 30 M. Kent Jennings, Community Influentials: The Elites of Atlanta, New York: The Free Press of Glencoe, 1964Eldersveld, Samuel J., Jan Kooiman, Theo Van Der Takeds., Elite Images of Dutch Politics, Ann Arbor, Michigan: The University of Michigan Press, 1981 Jacob, Betty M., Krzysztof Ostrowski, Henry Teuneeds., Democracy and Local Governance, Honolulu, Hawaii: Matsunaga Institute for Peace, University of Hawaii, 1993 Eldersveld, Samuel J., Local Elites in Western Democracies, Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, Inc, 1995 31 Edinger, Lewis J. and Donald Searing Social Background in Elite Analysis: A Methodological Inquiry, American Political Science Review, 1967Vol. 61, No. 2, pp. 428-445., Lasswell, Harold D., Daniel Lerner and C. Easton Rothwel, The Comparative Study of Elites: An Introduction and Bibliography Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press 1952, pp. 47-51. 32 Carl Beck et. al., A Survey of Elite Studies, (Washington, D. C.: The American University, 1965, pp. 40-42. Bachrach, Peter, The Theory of Democratic Elitism: A Critique. Boston, Mass: Little, Brown and Company. 1967 33 34 13
35 36 37 1992 elite etymology eligere choose or select elect elite elect elite eligere elect divine appointment political election elite elite choice a choice of persons Froissart the best of the best Lord Byron elite Don Juan Canto XIII, LXXX, 1823 Thakur, 1988: XX Edward Shils Max LeClerc1982: 13 Tom Bottomore Elite and Society, 1964 1823 Vilfredo Pareto1848-1923 ) Bottomore, 1974: 7 35 36 Moyser, George and Margaret Wagstaffe (ed.), Research Methods for Elite Studies, London: Allen and Unwin Inc. 1987. 37 Lasswell, Harold D., Daniel Lerner and C. Easton Rothwell 1952 The Comparative Study of Elites: An Introduction and Bibliography Carl Beck 1965 A Survey of Elite Studies Carl Beck J. Thomas McKechnie 1968 Political Elites: A Select Computerized Bibliography 1945 1967 100 661 1 413 414 634 635 661 Quandt, William B. 1970 The Comparative Study of Political Elites 14
10 1 0 10 6 1 0 elite a governing elite a non-governing elite Tom Bottomore Bottomore, 1974: 7 Gaetano Mosca 1858-1941 Bottomore, 1974: 9 Robert Michels1876-1936 -- Political Party Iron Law of Oligarchy 78 358 Robert D. Putnam 1. 2. 3. 4. self-perpetuating 5. Putnam 83 3-5 1. William A. Welsh Leaders and Elites, 1979 15
the normative form the idea type form - the descriptive-analytical form elite - approach identify careers Welsh, 1979: 13-14 2. Searing, 19693-31 Models and Images of Man and Society in Leadership Theory mechanistic organismic 3. Welsh, 1979: 15-16 C. Wright Mills Parry, 1969: 52 Lasswell, 1965: 3 Mosca ruling class Pareto Lasswell the influential C. W. Mill power elite Nadel, 1956: 413-424 elite 78 365 16
Mannheim Nadel, 1956: 419 Mosca Putnam 83 35 Mathrew, 1954: 3 Mathrew, 1954: 4 Schleth, 1971: 99 Eldersveld, 1995: 31 (patrician) Mathrew, 1954: 4-5 orientation Searing, 1967:18 Robert D. Putnam Putnam 83 17
152 Edinger and Searing, 1967; Searing, 1969; Schleth, 1971; Putnam 83 152 Putnam 83 63 152-153Barton, 1973:242 Putnam 83 65 Aberbach and Rockman, 1977: 23-47; Aberbach, Putnam, and Rockman, 1981; Edinger and Searing, 1967: 428-445; Eldersveld et. al., 1995; Eldersveld, Jan Kooiman and Theo Van Der Tak, 1981; Guttsman, 1951: 122-134; Groholt and Higley, 1954: 12-32; Goldthorpe, 1955: 31-47; McClosky, Hoffmann, and O Hara, 1960: 406-427; Rustow, 1966: 690-717; Searing, 1967; Searing, 1969: 470-500; Searing, 1971:442-474; Moore, 1979: 673-692 84 4 (pluralism) (elitism) 18
(Dahl, 1961Wildavsky, 1964 Parry, 1973 Prewitt & Stone, 1973 Polsby, 1979Bachrach & Baratz, 1970 Merelman, 1968Wolfinger, 1971) Floyd Hunter 1953 Community Power Structure - reputation-positional method Atlanta City power elite 76 12 Robert Dahl Who Governs? Democracy and Power in an American City, 1961 New Haven, Connecticut Heywood 88 135 Rossi, 1968Walton, 1966:434 Walton, 19661970 (Medding, 1982Alba et al., 1983) (Laumann et al., 197319741977 1979Lineberry, C. Wright Mills The Power Elite, 1956 Heywood 88 137 Heywood 88 134 19
1971) Laumann - attributes category network approach 75 110 Lineberry 1. 2. 3. 1971: 22 Moshe M. Czudnowski 1983 Political Elites and Social Change Toward a Second Generation of Empirical Elite and Leadership Studies Sociological Approach Czudnowski, 1983: 244 Kadushin Charles(1968), Power, Influence, and Social Circles: A New Methodology for Studying Opinion- Makers, American Sociological Review, Vol. 33, pp.685-699; Allen Barton (1971), Empirical Methods and Elite Theories, Rivista di sociologia, Vol. 9, No. 1-2, pp.57-82; Moshe Czudnowski, Toward a Second Generation of Empirical Elite and Leadership Studies pp.243-255, in Moshe Czudnowski (ed.) 1983, Political Elites and Social Change; George Moyser and Margaret Wagstaffe (eds.)(1987), Research Methods for Elite Studies; Joel D. Aberbach, James D. Chesney and Bert A. Rockman (1975), Exploring Elite Political Attitudes: Some Methodological Lesson, Political Methodology, vol. 2, pp. 1-27; 77 12 65-83 83-37 9 26-40 20
agglutination, so what Putnam 83 61 Robert D. Putnam Eldersveld, 1995: 31; Hoffman-Lange, 1985: 51 actor political outcome 83 26, 31 selfconsciously qualitative studies in-depth interview unstructured participant-observation Higley, 1988: 1301-1303 George Moyser and Margaret Wagstaffe Research Methods for Elite Studies positional approach 21
Federick, 1990: 117; Hoffmann-lange, 1987; Linton et. al., 1963: 791-798; 77 66 Federick, 1990: 117; Hoffmann-lange, 1987 reputational approach leadership Linton et. al., 1963: 793 intersubjectivity decisional approach Robert Dahl 77 66 Joel D. Aberbach Aberbach, 19751-27 22
Federick, 1990: 115-118 () 75 17-18 67 7577 77 75 79 84 84 8587 1. 77 552 2. 77 66 ( 75 66-67) 84 41 75 23
1. 2. 40-49 30-39 3. 4. 5. 25,000 67%6. 7. 77 573-574 40-59 84 16-17 79 2,539 24
log-linear model 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 87 8587 84 87 87 37-91 Aaron Wildavsky 85 273-314 25
87 61-109 91.1% 89.8% 43.67% 39.95%( ) 84 85-114 - - 42 97-111 43 26
20-49 60 87 192-193 () 646567 61 1-22 66 67 646567 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3. 5. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 27
4. 66 137-139 1978 1995 44 45 82 28
29.6% 17.7% - 84 355-358
() 67 Lerman Lerman, 1977: 1406-1422 () 77 65-83 83 26-40 the law of increasing disproportion Putnam 83 51 40-59 30
1995: 1 88 4 path to top elitism the law of increasing disproportion 31
88 126 32
1-3 33
() ; L. W. Milbrath M. L. Goel 1976: 116-117 J. N. Rosenau1974 66% 32% 67 71, 155-157 64 1-13 76 122-124 80 146 70 5-28 1995103 199876-72 128 Seymour Martin Lipset 1981279-280 Samuel J. Eldersveld 50 50 1995107 84 34
105 88 157-72 119 Almond and Verba, 1963: 379 Alex Inkeles, 1974143 72 121 84 104 88 35
109-68 140 Karl Marx order 75 13-14 19 Eldersveld, 1995: 50 73 9 79 17 76 142 76 88 111-36
46 Kim 47 94 24.07 94 4.8 72% 46 Kim, Chong Lim and Samuel C. Patterson Parliamentary Elite Integration in Six Nations 386 amateurs arrivistes parliamentarians careerists 37
88 111 - () Merton, 1968 Smelser 80 61-69 Heiss, 1990: 96-101 Graham T. Allison1971176 The Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis bureaucrat politician bureaucrat hierarchical Eldersveld et al, 198171 Robert D. Putnam 83 75-83 Almond and Powell, 1966: 101 Aberbach 1981: 4-23 Bureaucrats and Politicians in Western Democracies Policy/Administration Facts/Interests Energy/Equilibrium 38
The Pure Hybrid The Pure Hybrid 88 113 () 70 9-10 Moshe Czudnowski 1976155-242 Louis Wirth Urbanism as a way of life 1938: 3-24 1. 2. 3. 4. 59 564-585 84 108 48 39
49 19988 1949 81 9,329 1-10 89 14,216 1-5 % % 41 1,699 34.73 1,913 35.96 186 51 5,135 4.71 6,056 6.88 151 61 16,219 17.04 19,278 17.50 482 71 81,876 6.88 94,647 5.32 2,419 81 207,540 7.81 234,710 8.71 9,329 82 15 35-71 72 25 1949 1978 12 49 40
1952 119 2000 7,078 14.6 5.9% 2000 800 85 200013-17 88 65-125 Aberbach, Putnam, and Rockman, 1981 Eldersveld, Jan Kooiman, and Theo van der Tak, 1981Eldersveld, Lars Stromberg, and Wim Derksen, 1995Inglehart, 1990Verba et al., 1987 19951998 1999. centralization 50 www.stats.gov.cn 41
centralized government decentralization 76 199202 42 73-74 86 49 2. city 3. positional method 52 (1) (2) 51 52 42
(3) () (4) () (5) 55 (1) (2) (3) 56 1. probability sampling 1. 2. 3. 4. 53 82 55 NSC82-0301-H-110-035 84 56 88 10-11 57 13 43
372 1-6 1-6 54 14.5 95 25.6 52 14.0 29 7.8 82 22.0 9 2.4 63 16.9 159 42.7 71 19.1 11 3.0 50 13.4 69 18.5 304 81.7 256 68.8 34 9.1 69 18.5 32 8.6 10 2.7 2 0.5 37 9.9 20-29 4 1.1 11 3.0 30-39 45 12.1 21 5.6 40-49 147 39.5 122 32.8 50-59 112 30.1 176 47.3 60-69 61 16.4 41 11.0 10 137 47.9 5 210 57.5 11-20 76 26.6 6-10 92 25.2 21-30 34 11.9 11 63 17.3 31 39 13.6 336 90.3 36 9.7 2. A 58 J C Y 44
252 242 1-7 1-10 45
1-7 30 11.9 32 12.96 114 45.2 64 25.91 48 19.0 39 15.79 59 23.4 43 17.41 69 27.93 84 33.3 5 1 0.4 145 57.5 6-10 13 5.2 14 5.6 11 236 94.4 9 3.6 20-29 11 4.37 131 51.6 30-39 56 22.22 48 19.0 40-49 116 46.13 48 19.0 50-59 61 24.20 3 1.2 60 8 3.17 4 1.6 218 86.9 5 174 69.3 15 6.0 6-10 52 20.7 18 7.2 11 25 10.0 249 98.8 A 62 24.6 3 1.2 C 64 25.4 241 95.6 Y 64 25.4 11 4.4 J 62 24.6 51 20.4 199 79.6 50 19.8 202 80.2 36 14.5 213 85.5 1949 46
1-8 30 11.9 12 8.3 114 45.2 30 20.8 23 16.0 30 20.8 49 34.0 32 22.2 5 0 0 89 61.8 6-10 4 2.8 14 9.7 11 139 97.2 9 6.3 20-29 3 2.08 67 46.5 30-39 19 13.19 56 38.9 40-49 63 43.75 3 2.1 50-59 53 36.81 3 2.1 60 6 4.17 15 10.4 118 81.9 5 99 68.8 12 8.3 6-10 37 25.7 14 9.7 11 8 5.6 143 99.3 A 36 25.0 1 0.7 C 37 25.7 137 95.1 Y 36 25.0 7 4.9 J 35 24.3 20 14.0 123 86.0 21 14.6 123 85.4 26 18.4 115 81.6 1949 47
1-9 18 7.4 17 7.2 119 49.2 35 14.9 47 19.4 30 12.8 58 24.0 30 12.8 123 52.3 85 35.1 5 22 9.1 137 56.6 6-10 36 24.9 12 5.0 11 182 75.2 8 3.3 2 0.8 20-29 3 1.2 138 57.0 30-39 50 20.8 51 21.1 40-49 122 50.6 38 15.7 50-59 60 24.9 5 2.1 60 6 2.5 10 4.1 218 90.0 5 168 69.4 15 6.2 6-10 40 16.6 9 3.8 11 34 14.0 234 96.7 A 61 25.2 3 3.3 C 61 25.2 224 93.7 Y 57 23.6 15 6.3 J 63 26.0 62 25.7 179 74.3 79 32.6 163 67.4 13 5.4 229 94.6 1949 48
1-10 18 7.4 9 6.7 119 49.2 16 11.9 110 81.5 26 19.0 5 9 6.6 91 66.4 6-10 17 12.4 12 8.8 11 111 81.0 8 5.8 20-29 0 0 101 73.7 30-39 22 16.2 24 17.5 40-49 69 50.7 2 1.5 50-59 41 30.1 10 7.3 60 4 2.9 99 72.3 5 101 73.7 29 21.2 6-10 22 16.1 9 6.6 11 14 10.2 143 99.3 A 34 24.8 1 0.7 C 34 24.1 124 90.5 Y 33 24.1 12 8.8 J 36 26.3 36 26.3 100 73.0 41 29.9 96 70.1 10 7.3 127 92.7 1949 NSC82-0301-H-110-035 Democracy and Local Governance Democracy and 49
Local Governance Samuel J. Eldersveld University of Pennsylvania Philip Jacob Betty Jacob The International Studies of Value in PoliticsISVIP Values and The Active Community, 1971 59 60 NSC82-0301-H-110-035 1. 2. Pretest 3. 59 60 50
61 4. 5. 372 500 128 74.4% 65 54 83.1% 80 63 78.8 60 52 86.7 125 82 65.6 110 71 64.5 60 50 83.3 1. 2. 6. coding -- - -- 1. Eldersveld, 1995: 179; 88 1 61 51
87 61-98 88 : 4-5 84 85-114 2. 88 : 4-5 3. 87 13 4. 5. Democracy and Local Governance 6. 7. 52
1. 2. 53
1 1972 1 38 39 4 24 9 25 82 56 79 54
88 2 83 7 83 199873-76 39 82 2 55
3 4 79 71 Wheare 79 72-38 38 38 7 20 67 245-246 76 146 89 43 3 1998 3 4 79 71 56
68 34 39 56 68 5 15 6 7 5 39 41 43 48 56 54 6 88 143 7 87 116 57
87 50 88 99 4849 8 88 24 85 721-724 9 89 47 81 150 10 8 44 9 42 86 337-338 10 58
86 193 81 124-125 88 46-48 75 76 78 79 79 1331-1335 87 77-111 59
11 88 40 12 87 b11 85 162 87 229 88 63-64 87 137 11 18 8 9 10 35 30 3 86 342 12 89 58 60
85 85 12 29 3 86 7 108 1 1 109 112 13 115 122 88 194 88 42 13 88 1 61
88 117120 88 194-1949 1949 14 15 30 20 1949-1952 14 1978 1998 1995 50 2000 13-17 85 85 15 14 62
1952 11 2000 13 1998289 1953-1955 1953 16 17 1954 1953 35 42 81 1954 6 80% 75% 2000 14 1998 289 1956-1978 16 17 1998265-271 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 63
1.1956-1958 18 1956 4 1956 10 1958 1958 19 900 2000 14 1998290-291 2.1958-1961 1958 1959 20 1960 18 14 19 769 20 802 64
21 1998291-292 3.1961-1965 50 60 19881311961 1 1964 1998292-293 4.1966-1976 1988184 1970-50 1973 1998293-294 5.1977-1979 1977 1973 21 65
1998294 30 50-2000 15 1980 1994329 1979-1991 1984 1987 51.2%1990 60% 1992 71.3% 199350 66
200016 1992 1992 1994 1998 11 2000 15-17 67
social bias 22 path to top 23 1-11-21-4 2-1 24 1996 2-1 9.7% 1990 1996 4.4% 6.3% 4.9%8.8%24.6% 24.1% 42.9% 5.5% 6.8% 27.93% 52.3% 58.3% 54.8% 81.5%25.9% 57.5% 81.9% 37% 60.2% 40-59 69.6% 1 70.3% 75.5% 52.4% 77.1% 76.4%38.7% 80.6% 80.8%69.6% 66.8% 62.8% 53% 74.3% 82.5% 19.8% 25.3% 82.8% 32.6% 14.6% 29.9%20% 58.9% 17.5% 30.8% 28.7 1. 22 80% 25% Samuel J. Eldersveld, Local Elites in Western Democracies. Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1995. 23 24 Elersveld1995Aberbach1981 Putnma1975 3-1 68
2. 3. 4. Democracy and Local Governance 2-2 2-2 82 / / 17/161 10.5 11/407 2.7 42/352 12.9 1,454/12,404 11.7 13/77 16.9 19,688/48,520 40.6 0/134 0 586/2,235 26.2 2,165/3,882 55.8 12/297 4 2,476/7,176 34.5 7,844/13,074 60.2 1. 82 84 5,18 2. 84 5,18 82 2-3 69
70 2-3 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60 10,734,609 51.6 10,068,013 48.4 8,649,411 61.2 3,745,754 26.5 1,745,302 12.3 3,793,636 18.2 3,674,338 17.7 2,302,729 11.1 1,652,372 7.9 2,153,622 10.4 8,633,091 51.8 8,017,421 48.2 7,268,121 65 2,807,140 25.1 1,113,458 9.9 3,080,015 18.5 2,868,483 17.2 1,765,550 10.6 1,335,045 8.0 1,747,531 10.5 203,486 52.8 182,182 47.2 170,984 64.7 69,719 26.4 23,373 8.9 74,066 19.2 61,984 16.1 35,858 9.3 32,956 8.5 46,003 11.9 679,023 51.5 638,482 48.5 587,240 67.2 209,164 24.0 76,826 8.8 238,435 18.1 228,564 17.3 97,468 7.4 96,483 7.3 94,364 7.2 599,291 52.3 547,287 47.7 484,793 63.5 210,389 27.6 67,822 8.9 220,200 19.2 196,823 17.2 127,042 11.1 91,922 8.0 117,403 10.2 191,467 53.8 164,142 46,2 168,392 68.3 59,584 24.2 18,733 7.6 67,147 18.9 57,303 16.1 37,756 10.6 30,143 8.5 47,450 13.3 186,269 51.8 173,213 48.2 141,054 58.8 73,013 30.4 25,754 10.7 68,643 19.1 65,306 18.2 38,487 10.7 29,039 8.1 39,934 11.1 353,199 50.8 341,431 49.2 286,334 61.2 115,880 24.8 65,566 14.0 122,866 17.7 129,430 18.6 79,699 11.5 52,386 7.5 63,118 9.1 2-1 5.5% 58.3% 27.93%
71 81.5% 2-3 32.4% 33.6% 40-59 69.6% 70.3% 75.5% 80.6%80.8% 2-3 40-59 40-59 52.4% 82.5% 82.8% 77.1% 76.4% 52.4% 38.7% 25.3% 32.6% 7.3% 5.5% 10.7% 4.6% 2-4 84% 44.1% 51.7% 69.9% 86.5%
2-4 1990 1996 1990 1996 0 5941.324182010.2333.3 225 2831.555.6 333.3 225 15162114.716128040.8333.3 225 1516.977.9 333.3 225 79846344.19369.99649333.3 450 4651.77786.5 333.3 450 39 11124128.33324.32914.70 0 1516.91617.8 40-49 2931.56746.268509447.7333.3 112.5 4247.24752.2 333.3 112.5 50-59 3335.93423.434254522.8333.3 450 3134.82628.9 333.3 450 60 1920.732.110.72814.3333.3 337.5 11.1 11.1 4960.512082.8 9270.6100 333.3 337.5 555.5 787.5 6977.55762.6 56.2555.5 787.5 131621.4625 2514111.1 0 22.2526.4 111.1 1113.6149.7833.34726.40 0 910.1736.8 33.70 28.331.7111.1 0 210.5 111.1 56.242.8724.231.7222.2 112.5 910.1421.1 10 1216.485.64130.4114 33.42123.1 60.3 11-20 2027.430216145.251270 15174448.4 222.2 112.5 0 112.5 21-30 1520.56243.42921.5168.5333.3 0 3640.92325.3 333.3 0 112.5 450 450 30 2635.64330.143.084.2666.7 337.5 3438.633.3 666.7 337.5 1. 72
2. 3. 40-59 40-49 50% 52.2% 60.5% 82.8% 77.5% 70.6% 62.6% 11-20 20-30 30 20.5% 21-30 43.4% 30 30.1% 11-20 45.2% 10 30.4% 21 10-20 40-49 40-59 40-59 40-49 21 10-20 73
1949 25 26 27 50 50 26 38 50 Eldersveld, 1995: 46Aberbach and Rockman, 1977: 27 25 1949 1965 1949 55 54 39 38 21 82 12 99-120 38 10%20% 1949 26 1936 1949 1966 57 56 48 47 38 37 88 136-137 27 1996 40-59 75.5% 1990 70.2% 69% 20-39 49 13% 1990 67 27%1996 53 22% 1996 74
2-5 2-5 2-6 2-7 40.8% 5.8% Eldersveld, 1995: 47 2-5 90 X 2 =15.887 50 118(65.2)(66.3) 63(34.8)(91.3) 50 60(90.9)(33.7) 6(9.1)(8.7) 90 50 42(49.4)(44.2) 43(50.6)(87.8) 50 53(89.8)(55.8) 6(10.2)(12.2) 96 50 44(25.9)(53.7) 126(74.1)(82.9) 50 38(59.4)(46.3) 26(40.6)(17.1) 96 50 7(7.7)(28) 84(92.3)(77.1) 50 18(41.9)(72) 25(58.1)(22.9) 50 70(33.8)(45.8) 137(66.2)(63.4) 50 83(51.2)(54.2) 79(48.8)(36.6) P<0.001 X 2 =25.344 P<0.001 X 2 =22.913 P<0.001 X 2 =22.464 P<0.001 X 2 =11.360 P<0.001 75
2-6 90 90 X p<.01 X 2=12.0, p=.001 50 12.53997.5 7.1 50 50 13253975 92.9 50 6964.53052.6 3835.52747.4 67.0 50 95 93.1 X 2=15.774, 3494.43093.825.6 26.3 33 50 5 6.9 p<.001 X 2=5.253, p<.05 50 5544.7 6855.3 55 70.8 50 4561.6 2838.4 45 29.2 3100 3100 33.3 33.3 6100 6100 66.7 66.7 0 0 0 0 X 2=1.925, P.05 X 2=4.504, 50 330 770 75 100 50 1100 25 0 3960.9211.12539.11688.9 (72.2) 14.3 (92.6) P<.05 88.9X 2=17.810 1588.21285.7211.8214.3 (95) 85.7 (7.4) 11.1 P.001 X 2=5.682, p<.05 X 2=2.333 50 730.41669.6 20 47.1 50 2860.9 1839.1 80 52.9 7100 7100 58.3 58.3 0 0 571.4 571.4228.6228.6 41.7 41.7 100 100 P.05 X 2=2.333 P.05 76
2-7 96 96 X p<.01 X 2=9.374, p=.01 50 12.53997.5 7.1 50 50 13253975 92.9 50 2323.234.87676.86095.2 57.5 25 82.6 78.9 X 2=14.830, 1751.59361648.51664 42.5 75 17.4 21.1 p<.001 X 2=5.253, p<.05 X 2=1.143 50 5544.7 6855.3 55 70.8 50 4561.6 2838.4 45 29.2 0 0 1100 1100 25 25 457.1 457.1342.9342.9 100 100 75 75 P.05 X 2=1.143 P.05 X 2=1.925, P.05 X 2=11.094, 50 330 770 75 100 50 1100 25 0 1931.7211.84168.31588.2 54.333.387.2 75 1672.7444.4627.3555.6 45.766.712.8 25 P=.001 X 2=17.810 P.001 X 2=5.682, p<.05 X 2=.800 50 730.41669.6 20 47.1 50 2860.9 1839.1 80 52.9 220 220 880 880 66.7 66.788.9 88.9 150 150 150 150 33.3 33.311.1 11.1 P.05 X 2=.800 P.05 77
2-8 20-39 40-49 50-59 60 20-39 40-49 50-59 60 90.9 100.0 78.8 68.4 94.1 96.1 70.0 0.0 45.5 50 60 66.7 47.1 70.6 62.5 66.7 72.4 50 33.3 46.4 100 100 87.5 0 23.1 40.2 63.4 73.9 100 71.4 62.5 100 66.7 71.4 0 0 100 89.5 66.7 0 66.7 50 100 0 50 63.2 73.3 100 100 58.8 40.6 35.7 100 84.6 80 0 60 66.7 53.3 66.7 60 53.8 50 100 2-8 2-5 2-5 2-8 78
Eldersveld, 1995: 47 84 93 Eldersveld 2-9 89% 23% 66% 71% 8% 63% 40 57% 7% 50% 94% 7% 87% 71% 28% 43% 42% 9% 33% 40 17% 0% 17% 63% 30% 33% 23% 54%Eldersveld 1995: 48 79
2-9 A. 1. 66 43 54 2. (89 23) (71 28) (67 13) 23 63 33 60 3. - (71 8 ) (42 9) (80 20 ) 30 40 50 17 44 (57 7) (17 0) (50 6) 33 4. - 87 33 53 (94 7) (63 30) (82 27) 54 71 29 42 (71 0) (54 25) (42 0) 42 B. ( 65% ) 40 38 40 Eldersveld, 1995: 48. 79% 27% 27% 46% 82% type 1995: 48 2-10 70.8% 18.8% 52% 90 45.2% 96 80
37.6% 90 41.9%96 12.4% 29.5% 90 1.1% 96 90 24.3% 13.1% 90 96 1.7% 90 2-10 90 96 90 96 1. 1. 1. 1.1% 10.1% 68.3 45.1 48.6 24.3 90.9 77.8 23.2% 24.3% 13.1% 2. 50 2. 50 2. 50 11.2% 1.7% 72 38 72.2 27 87.9 55.6 34% 45.2% 32.3% 3. 3. 3. 41.9% 12.4% 75 78.8 70.8 18.864.910.1% 52% 41.237.6% 11.2% 45.2% 32.3% 50 41.9% 12.4% 90 96 10.1% 37.6% 2-10 81
82
38 Robert D. Putnam the law of increasing disproportion 40-59 40-59 40-49 21 10-20 83
2-8 70.8% 18.8% 52% 90 45.2% 96 37.6% 90 41.9%96 12.4% 29.5% 2-10 path to top 84
15-20 2-1 28-28 Aberbach et al., 1981:80 85
- Putnam, 1975 2 3 1 2 3 86
87-4 - 3-1 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. 2. 3. 4. 42.1% 5 56.5% 14.4% 34.8% 51.5% 16.7% 30.6%45.3% 27.2% 18.2% 23.6% 17.1% 9%6.5% 13.7%28.8% 30.2% 54.2% 3.5% 28.0% 24.5% 6.7% 4 5 88
3-1 3-1 1993 1999 1990 1990 1996 1996 6 1. 15542.1%1356.5%8734.8%3830.6%12351.5%5345.3% % 2. 10027.2%418.2%5823.6%1713.7%4117.1%2228.8% % 3. 11230.2%1354.2%6928.0%2520.7%5724.5%3127.4% % 33.2% 43.0% 28.8% 26.7% 31.0% 36.0% - 3-2 7.3% 56.3% 42.4% 6 88
64.5% 33.1% 9.8% 9.3% 3-2 277.3% 52.0% 21.4% 62.5% 21.5% 13837.1%10842.9%8156.3% 8033.1%4835.0% 20755.6%13955.2%6142.4% 15664.5%8763.5% 372100/0%252100%144100% 242100%137100% 3-3 3-7 3-3 3-4 3-6 3-4 49 49 89
57.8% 60% 30 31 5 6 10 11 A 90
3-3 N % N % N % N % N % N % 6 11.1 22 40.7 26 48.1 4 4.3 35 37.2 55 58. 3 5.8 21 40.4 28 53.8 17 8.6 75 38.1 105 53.3 7 8.5 24 29.3 51 62.2 5 7.2 22 31.9 42 60.9 2 3.2 25 39.7 36 57.1 1 9.1 5 45.5 5 45.5 5 7.0 26 36.6 40 56.3 4 8.0 20 40.0 26 52.0 19 6.3 117 38.5 168 55.3 22 8.6 84 32.9 149 58.4 7 20.6 7 20.6 20 58.8 3 4.3 31 44.9 35 50.7 1 3.0 14 42.4 18 54.5 1 10.0 4 40.0 5 50.0 1 2.7 19 51.4 17 45.9 20-29 0 0 1 25 3 75 0 0 4 36.4 7 63.6 30-39 4 8.9 13 28.9 28 62.2 2 9.5 6 28.6 13 61.9 40-49 13 8.8 59 40.1 75 51.0 10 8.2 37 30.3 75 61.5 50-59 6 5.4 41 36.6 65 58.0 13 7.4 75 42.6 88 50.0 60 4 6.6 24 39.3 33 54.1 2 4.9 16 39.0 23 56.1 10 13 9.4 53 38.1 73 52.5 5 15 6.5 82 35.3 135 58.2 11-20 4 5.1 28 35.9 46 59.0 6-10 4 5.6 33 45.8 35 48.6 21-30 1 2.9 12 35.3 21 61.8 11 8 12.7 22 34.9 33 52.4 31 6 5.5 44 40.0 60 54.5 24 7.1 124 36.9 188 56.0 3 8.3 14 38.9 19 52.8 91
3-4 N % N % N % N % N % N % 0 0 19 63.3 11 36.7 2 6.3 12 37.5 18 56.3 2 1.8 62 54.4 50 43.9 0 0 27 42.2 37 57.8 1 2.1 16 33.3 31 64.6 1 2.6 16 41.0 22 56.4 2 3.4 11 18.6 46 78.0 0 0 21 48.8 22 51.2 2 2.9 31 44.9 36 52.2 2 2.4 22 26.2 60 71.4 10 1 7.1 4 28.9 9 64.3 3 2.1 69 47.6 73 50.3 11-20 1 7.1 17 31.5 36 66.7 0 0 9 64.3 5 35.7 21-30 3 2.7 49 43.8 60 53.6 0 0 8 88.9 1 11.1 31 0 0 36 51.4 34 48.6 30 1 9.1 3 27.3 7 63.6 3 2.3 50 38.2 78 59.5 31-39 1 1.8 14 25.0 41 73.2 0 0 24 50.0 24 50.0 40-49 3 2.6 54 46.6 59 50.9 2 4.2 23 47.9 23 47.9 50-59 0 0 32 52.5 29 47.5 0 0 4 57.1 3 42.9 60 0 0 5 62.5 3 37.5 0 0 7 38.9 11 61.1 5 2.3 87 39.9 126 57.8 5 4 2.3 73 42.0 97 55.7 0 0 9 60.0 6 40.0 6-10 1 1.9 28 53.8 23 44.2 0 0 11 61.1 7 38.9 11 0 0 7 28 18 72 5 2.0 107 43.0 137 55.0 A 2 3.2 37 59.7 23 37.1 0 0 1 33.3 2 66.7 Q 1 1.6 21 32.8 42 65.6 5 2.1 104 43.2 132 54.8 Y 1 1.6 22 34.4 41 64.1 0 0 4 36.4 7 63.6 J 1 1.6 28 45.2 33 53.2 1 2.0 20 39.2 30 58.8 4 2.0 87 43.7 108 54.3 1 2.0 14 28.0 35 70.0 4 2.0 94 46.5 104 51.5 0 0 21 58.3 15 41.7 5 2.3 84 39.4 124 58.2 1949 92
3-5 N % N % N % N % N % N % 0 0 19 63.3 11 36.7 1 8.3 6 50.0 5 41.7 2 1.8 62 54.4 50 43.9 0 0 16 53.3 14 46.7 0 0 14 60.9 9 39.1 0 0 19 63.3 11 36.7 1 2.0 26 53.1 22 44.9 0 0 14 43.8 18 56.3 10 1 25.0 1 25.0 2 50.0 2 2.2 50 56.2 37 41.6 11-20 0 0 13 54.2 11 45.8 0 0 9 64.3 5 35.7 21-30 1 1.7 35 60.3 22 37.9 0 0 8 88.9 1 11.1 31 0 0 31 54.4 26 45.6 20-29 1 33.3 1 33.3 1 33.3 1 1.5 32 47.8 34 50.7 30-39 0 0 8 42.1 11 57.9 0 0 18 66.7 9 33.3 40-49 1 1.6 38 60.3 24 38.1 1 3.4 21 72.4 7 24.1 50-59 0 0 30 56.6 23 43.4 0 0 3 50.0 3 50.0 60 0 0 4 66.7 2 33.3 0 0 7 46.7 8 53.3 2 1.7 63 53.4 53 44.9 5 2 2.0 56 56.6 41 41.4 0 0 8 66.7 4 33.3 6-10 0 0 22 59.5 15 40.5 0 0 10 71.4 4 28.6 11 0 0 3 37.5 5 62.5 2 1.4 80 55.9 61 42.7 A 2 5.6 26 72.2 8 22.2 0 0 1 100.0 0 0 Q 0 0 16 43.2 21 56.8 2 1.5 78 56.9 57 41.6 Y 0 0 16 44.4 20 55.6 0 0 3 42.9 4 57.1 J 0 0 23 65.7 12 34.3 0 0 10 50.0 10 50.0 2 1.6 71 57.7 50 40.7 1 4.8 8 38.1 12 57.1 1 0.8 73 59.3 49 39.8 0 0 16 61.5 10 38.5 2 1.7 62 53.9 51 44.3 1949 93
3-6 N % N % N % N % N % N % 0 0 8 44.4 10 55.6 2 3.8 16 30.8 34 65.4 2 1.7 40 33.6 77 64.7 0 0 9 30.0 21 70.0 0 0 17 36.2 30 63.8 2 1.3 54 35.3 97 63.4 4 6.9 15 25.9 39 67.2 3 3.5 24 28.2 58 68.2 10 3 4.7 17 26.6 44 68.8 2 1.5 52 38.0 83 60.6 11-20 2 1.8 40 35.7 70 62.5 1 8.3 0 0 11 91.7 21-30 1 2.1 17 35.4 30 62.5 0 0 4 50.0 4 50.0 31 0 0 6 37.5 10 62.5 20-29 0 0 1 33.3 2 66.7 5 2.6 66 34.9 118 62.4 30-39 2 4.0 16 32.0 32 64.0 1 2.5 11 27.5 28 70.0 40-49 4 3.3 40 32.8 78 63.9 0 0 0 0 3 100.0 50-59 0 0 22 36.7 38 63.3 0 0 3 30.0 7 70.0 60 0 0 1 16.7 5 83.3 4 1.8 71 32.6 143 65.6 5 5 2.9 63 36.2 106 60.9 2 9.5 8 38.1 11 52.4 6-10 1 2.4 10 23.8 31 73.8 0 0 1 50.0 1 50.0 11 0 0 7 26.9 19 73.1 5 2.1 77 32.9 152 65.0 A 2 3.3 27 44.3 32 52.5 1 12.5 3 37.5 4 50.0 Q 0 0 19 31.1 42 68.9 6 2.7 76 33.9 142 63.4 Y 2 3.5 16 28.1 39 68.4 0 0 4 26.7 11 73.3 J 2 3.2 18 28.6 43 68.3 1 1.6 25 40.3 36 58.1 5 2.8 55 30.7 119 66.5 4 5.1 25 31.6 50 63.3 2 1.2 55 33.7 106 65.0 0 0 4 30.8 9 69.2 6 2.6 76 33.2 147 64.2 1949 94
3-7 N % N % N % N % N % N % 0 0 8 44.4 10 55.6 0 0 4 44.4 5 55.6 2 1.7 40 33.6 77 64.7 0 0 5 31.3 11 68.8 2 1.8 38 34.5 70 63.6 0 0 7 26.9 19 73.1 10 1 3.4 7 24.1 21 72.4 1 1.1 37 40.7 53 58.2 11-20 1 1.5 27 40.3 39 58.2 1 8.3 0 0 11 91.7 21-30 0 0 9 28.1 23 71.9 0 0 4 50.0 4 50.0 31 0 0 5 55.6 4 44.4 20-29 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1.0 40 39.6 60 59.4 30-39 1 4.5 7 31.8 14 63.6 1 4.2 5 20.8 18 75.0 40-49 1 1.4 25 36.2 43 62.3 0 0 0 0 2 100.0 50-59 0 0 15 36.6 26 62.3 0 0 3 30.0 7 70.0 60 0 0 1 25.0 3 75.0 1 0.9 39 34.2 74 64.9 5 2 1.9 40 38.5 62 59.6 1 5.0 8 40.0 11 55.0 6-10 0 0 6 25.0 18 75.0 0 0 1 50.0 1 50.0 11 0 0 2 22.2 7 77.8 2 1.5 47 34.6 87 64.0 A 0 0 17 50.0 17 50.0 0 0 1 100.0 0 0 Q 0 0 9 26.5 25 73.5 2 1.6 46 37.1 76 61.3 Y 2 6.1 8 24.2 23 69.7 0 0 2 35.3 10 63.2 J 0 0 14 38.9 22 61.1 0 0 14 38.9 22 61.1 2 2.0 34 34.0 64 64.0 2 4.9 14 34.1 25 61.0 0 0 34 35.4 62 64.6 0 0 4 40.0 6 60.0 2 1.6 44 34.6 81 63.8 1949 95
7 Putnam, 1976 8 ; 7 Eldersveld, Samuel J., Lars Stromberg, and Wim Derksen, Local Elites in Western Democracies: A Comparative Analysis of Urban Political Leaders in the U.S., Sweden, and The Netherlands. Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1995; Putnam, Robert D., The Beliefs of Politicians: Ideology, Conflict, and Democracy in Britain and Italy. New Haven, Connecticut: Yale University Press, 1973Putnam, Robert D., The Comparative Study of Political Elite. Englewood Cliffs: N.J.: Prentice Hall, 1976 1995 85-114 - 1998 61-109 8 10 1998 1995 199875, 77 1995103 96
3-8 3-9 3-8 9 P<0.01 P<0.05 P<0.05 3-8 - x x x x x ** ** x x x x x x x x x x x x x * x x x x x x x x x x x x ** * ** ***P<0.001 **p<0.01 *P<0.05 X 10 38 9 1993:88 1. 1949. 2. 1965 1949 55 1950-196554-39 1965 38 10 50 3-8 97
48.6%17 55 85 19 59.4% 137 64.3% 11 11 40.7% 3-9 P<0.05 P<0.05 P<0.05 P<0.05 12 24-40 48.6%35 53 39 73.6% 3-9 11 81.12 12 5 3 41-52 24-40 39 40-49 50 98
3-9 - 90 96 90 96 90 96 x x x x x x * x x x x x x x x x x x * x x x x x x x * x x * x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x * * x x x * x *** x x * *** x *** x x ** x x * * x x ** x x x x x ***P<0.001 **p<0.01 *P<0.05 X 81 38.4% 83.3%30 19 40.4% 150 75% 20 25.6% 140 87% 99
X 2 test 28 66.7% 13 52.9% Merton, 1968 Smelser 80 61-69 Heiss, 1990: 96-101 Graham T. Allison The Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis 13 Max Weber politician 13 Allison, Graham T. The Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. Boston: Little, Brown, 1971, p. 176. 100
bureaucrat hierarchical Eldersveld, Koomen, Theo van der Tak, 198171 14 3-8 10 372 304 81.9% 34 (9.2%) 31 (8.4%) 2 (0.5%) 19 57.6% 26 83.9% 225 74.8% 3-9 99.3% 96.7% 37 44.6% 35 42.7% 14 100% 8 88.9% 5 41.7% 8 100% 14 Eldersveld, Samuel J., Jan Kooman, Theo van der Tak, Elite Images of Dutch PoliticsAccommodation and Conflict. Ann Arbor, Michigan: The University of Michigan Press, 1981, p. 71 27Eldersveld, Samuel J (1995)Aberbach, Joel D., Robert d. Putnam, Bert A. Rockman, Thomas J. Anton, Samuel J. Eldersveld, Ronald Inglehart, Bureaucrats and Politicians in Western Democracies. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1981Aberbach, Joel D., Bert A. Rockman, The Overlapping Worlds of American Federal Executives and Congressmen, British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 7, Part11977, pp.23-47aberbach, Joel D., Bert A. Rockman, Administrative Beliefs about The Role of The Public: The Case of American Federal Executives, Western Political Quarterly, Vol. 31(December, 1978) pp.502-522 10 1995 10 1998 101
3-9 32 56.1% 28 49.1% 93 83.1% 17 29.8% 18 102
103
- 70 9-10 Moshe Czudnowski 1976155-242 Louis Wirth Urbanism as a way of life 1938: 3-24 1. 2. 3. 4. 59 564-585 Eldersveld1995111-113 84 108 88 48 88 117 104
1-2 3 4 19988 132.4373 6162 0.3216 132.7589 56.2659 42.38% 4.2335 3.19% 2.7901 41 163,382 81 359,482 4-1 40 1.20 81 2,707 1 Samuel J. Eldersveld, Local Elites in Western Democracies: A Comparative Analysis of Urban Political Leaders in the U.S., Sweden, and the Netherlands. Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1995, pp. 111-113 1995 93 88 5-6 2 3 4 39 105
175.6456 36,000.0609 0.49% 107.2016 61.03% 27.2681 15.52% 2.6794 1.53% 41 239,968 81 694,630 4-140 1.89 81 3,954.7 1683 142,759.31 41 362,959 81 385,668 40 0.06 71 81 270.15 2,051.4712 5.74% 1,013.6520 49.41% 1,037.8192 50.59% 41 490,517 81 1,317,505 40 1.68 81 642.22 86 110 106
2,832.5175 2,792.6602 73 0.0040 2,792.6642 1,416.6947 50.73% 1,375.9695 49.27% 41 474,305 1,146,578 40 1.41 81 410.57 4-1 137.5 43 27 4,628.5714 41 184,827 81 355,609 40 0.92 76.83 4-1 40 4-1 41-81 41 7,998,819 163,382 2.04 239,968 3.0 362,959 4.53 490,517 6.13 474,305 5.93 184,827 2.31 76.33 6 37.06 4 35.38 3 23.49 1 21.55 2 30.96 5 51 11,527,942 249,090 2.16 362,668 3.15 489,474 4.25 537,292 4.66 657,927 5.70 276,337 2.40 524.59 5511.32 4348.57 3 95.24 2 387.14 1495.33 6 61 15,141,935 333,680 2.20 492,880 3.26 605,853 4.00 813,781 5.37 871,900 5.76 340,194 2.25 339.60 6359.06 4237.76 3 514.60 2 325.22 1231.08 6 71 18,457,923 349,686 1.89 609,934 3.30 364,864 1.98 1,071,310 5.80 1,037,829 5.62 359,891 1.95 47.97 6237.49 3-397.79 4 316.46 1 190.31 2 57.90 5 81 20,752,494 359,482 1.73 694,630 3.34 385,668 1.86 1,317,505 6.35 1,146,578 5.52 355,609 0.17 28.01 5138.86 3 57.01 4 229.81 1 104.79 2-11.90 6 1. - / 1,000 2. 3. 51 61 107
81 81 51 81 4-2 41 51 61 7,607 30,601 66058 28,550 50,523 81,565 85,876 64,864 94,758 7.3029.3563.3617.7731.4550.7834.9826.4238.60 71 7,027 43,876 84,039 36,415 105,512 111,658 62,194 64,079 54,909 5.2032.462.314.441.6%44.034.3235.3730.31 81 6,205 50,936 122,523 40,552 137,866 142,494 53,140 95,332 59,670 3.9031.964.212.6342.9644.4025.5345.8028.67 41 51 61 166,854 81,607 91,203 165,208 50,767 139,544 64,780 16,004 11,556 49.1224.0326.8546.4714.2839.2570.1517.3312.51 71 178,234 161,422 121,353 154,323 124,220 176,892 56,020 33,569 57,235 38.6635.0126.3233.8827.2838.8438.1522.8638.98 81 159685 269,163 197,510 148,696 195,062 216,230 43,538 43,258 66,581 25.4942.9731.5326.5534.8338.6128.3928.2143.42 71 71 228, 232 81 81 312. 108
4-2 81 12.63% 28.39% 25% 81 45.8% 42.97%42.96% 81 71 43.42% 34%39% 4-3 4-8 4-3 41 51 61 11,204 5.0 2,240.8 71 68,922 4.4 15,664.09 2 81 228,886 3.8 60,233.16 2 7181 4-4 41 51 61 8,859 5.31 1,668.36 71 66,387 4.48 14,818.53 3 81 192,070 3.75 51,218.66 5 7181 109
4-5 41 51 61 71 68,864 5.41 12,729.02 4 81 267,115 4.55 58,706.59 3 7181 4-6 41 51 61 4,690 5.86 800.34 71 77,030 4.89 15,752.56 1 81 281,362 4.26 66,047.42 1 7181 4-7 41 51 61 7,349 5.8 1,267.00 71 57,977 4.52 12,826.77 3 81 207,299 3.92 52,822.40 4 617181 4-8 41 51 61 71 52,565 4.51 11,655.21 5 81 154,729 3.94 39,271.32 6 7181 4-2 4-3 4-8 110
4-3 4-8 71 81 71 4-9 - - / x100% 5 4-9 % % % % % % 41 51 61 71 45.83 3 84.50 1 36.06 5 53.28 2 39.50 4 28.06 6 81 46.56 4 80.92 1 39.43 5 52.88 2 55.77 3 33.34 6 88 151-152 41 61 71 81 6 5 / 1989 11 6 111
3-8 3-9 3-8 7 3-9 Q 39.1% Y 27.9% A 13.3% J 30.6% A 86.7% J 69.4% Q 60.9% Y 72.1% A 82.8%J 80.0% Y 38.2%Q 23.3% 3-8 - x x x x x ** ** x x x x x x x x x x x x x * x x x x x x x x x x x x * ** * ***P<0.001 **p<0.01 *P<0.05 X 7 112
3-9 - 90 96 90 96 90 96 x x x x x x * x x x x x x x x x x x * x x x x x x x * x x * x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x * * x x x * x *** x x * *** x *** x x ** x x * * x x ** x x x x x ***P<0.001 **p<0.01 *P<0.05 X - 4-10 4-10 - % % % % % % % 5 4 2 38.5 4 24.1 5 30.8 2 31.1% 4 4 5 3 46.2 2 25.5 4 19.2 6 29.1% 5 1 2 1 50.0 1 35.4 2 34.1 1 39.8% 1 3 1 5 37.1 5 22.2 6 27.4 3 28.9% 6 2 3 4 36.6 6 35.2 3 27.1 4 33.0% 2 6 6 6 42.9 3 36.0 1 20.0 5 33.0% 2 113
4-11 4-11 N(%) N(%) N(%) 22(15.9%) 4 6(22.2%) 2 26(12.6%) 5 21(15.2%) 5 3(5.8%) 6 28(13.5%) 4 24(17.4%) 3 7(25.9%) 1 51(24.6%) 1 25(18.1%) 2 2(7.4%) 5 36(17.4%) 3 26(18.8%) 1 5(18.5%) 3 40(19.3%) 2 20(14.5%) 6 4(14.8%) 4 26(12.6%) 5 13837.1% 2 277.3% 3 20755.6% 1 4-121990 - % % % 2. 3. 4. A 292,280 4 15,062 5.15 4 483 4 21.7 4 13.4 4 10 2 15.03 4 Q 405,339 3 54,253 13.38 1 649 2 39.1 1 27.9 3 17.2 1 28.07 2 Y 777,336 1 41,846 5.38 3 641 3 39.0 2 39.1 1 17.2 1 31.77 1 J 474,438 2 61,816 13.03 2 796 1 38.7 3 30.7 2 4.8 3 24.73 3 1997 1997 1. 1990 88 119 114
4-131996 - 2. % % % % A 315,894 4 80,110 25.35 2 2,044 2 42.6 4 17.2 4 18.0 2 25.9 4 Q 436,742 3 122,606 28.08 1 1,808 3 61.7 1 23.3 2 15.3 4 33.4 2 Y 806,864 1 78,848 9.77 4 1,800 4 48.2 3 38.2 1 19.6 1 35.3 1 J 495,573 2 67,981 13.72 3 2,865 1 53.2 2 20.0 3 15.9 3 29.7 3 1997 1. 4-14 1990 1996 1990 1996 N% N%N%N% N% N% A 2(100) 1 26(32.1) 1 8(13.1) 4 0 17(35.4) 1 17(19.5) 4 Y 0 16(19.8) 3 20(32.8) 2 2(100) 1 8(16.7) 4 23(26.4) 2 Q 0 16(19.8) 3 21(34.4) 1 0 9(18.8) 3 25(28.7) 1 J 0 23(28.4) 2 12(19.7) 3 0 14(29.2) 2 22(25.3) 3 2(1.4) 3 81(56.3) 1 61(42.4) 2 2(1.5) 3 48(35.0) 2 87(63.5) 1 4-12 4-13 - AQYJ Q A A Q Y J A Y Q J A Q YJ YQJA A 115
21.7% 13.4% 10.0% A 10% 20.0% A 18.0% A Y Q Y Y 4-13 56.3% 42.4% 1.4% 63.5% 21.1% 35.0% 21.3% 1.5% 0.1% 4-14 A YQ 116
A 4-14 6% 117
- Democracy and Local Governance 199990-125 199861-109 2000157-204 118
22.8% 19% 1999120-124 199897-98 2000204 82 13 41 196 119
81 10,202.00 89 14,216 1950 2000 82 79 83 8 1 85-108 1 1 112 115 122 1949 1 1980 elite replacement 1980 1985 1978 85% 9% 1978 1982 1988 550,000 198810.28Shen, 199421-24 1987 1984 41 50 50 20% 3.5 1984 378 55 1978 5.8 1978 2% 14% 1984 50% 25% 19%65% 2%23% 1-189 120
1% 69% 2 1952 679 1978 3,624 2000 89,404 1952 1978 26 4.34 1978 2000 22 23.67 1952 119 2000 7,078 14.6 5.9% 2000 800 85 3 3-1 1993 19958 1999 14.4% 3-8 P<0.01 3-8 3-9 2 www.stats.gov.cn 3 1982 111 1987 1988 87 87 87 121
1980 44.6%42.7% 100% Aberbach, Putnam, and Rockman, 1981 Eldersveld, Jan Kooiman, and Theo van der Tak, 1981Eldersveld, Lars Stromberg, and Wim Derksen, 1995Inglehart, 1990Verba et al., 1987 19951998 1999 122
5-1 1993 1990 1996 1991 1995 1991 155 87 123 % 42.1 34.8 51.5 60.6 75.7 67.5 100 58 % 27.2 23.6 17.1 78.1 64.5 59.5 112 69 % 30.2 2824.5 67.4 63.1 58.0 33.2% 28.8% 31.0% 68.7% 67.8% 61.7% 41 57 255 335 284 405 343 330 Democracy and Local Governance 296 260 254 5-1 - 4 4 123
88 21 82 88 124
path to top elitism the law of increasing disproportion 125
88 126 Robert D. Putnam the law of increasing disproportion 40-59 40-59 40-49 21 10-20 126
2-8 70.8% 18.8% 52% 90 45.2% 96 37.6% 90 41.9%96 12.4% 29.5% 2-10 127
A 4-14 6% 82 128
82 129
1989 1989 1993 70 1-6 74 1-40 85 74 87 87 86 82 68 72 78 1995 88 1994 129
67 67 1998 64 87 81 88 - - 59 1992 42 87 87 63 183-211 84 81 1987 87 68 130
59 1995 82 82 86 87 58 87 78 Robert D. Putnam 83 76 87 74 1994 78 8 78 131
64 39 19-56 65 42 67 679-716 84 1 8-38 85 86 b 88 78 70 17 77 12 65-83 80 70 64 74 75 77 88 61 2 1-22 132
87 75 108-113 2000 50 2000 13-17 70 85 153-174 79 1945-1986 67 70 12 4 46-55 79 29 5 69-90 79 69 4193-106 84 85-114 75-1950-1985 63 37 73 8 3-19 133
89 85-87 1993-1995 88 81 66-78 89 84 88 85 273-314 87 61-109 76 71 2-75 5 77 25 6 552-574 83 99-120 85 88 84 134
76-75 1988 83 -- 37 9 26-40 85 1979-1989 135
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1996 207
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9095.717186.8113.3 6318.8 335(90.3) 44.3 2613.2 0 68.7 36(9.7) 20-29 11.1 21.0 19.1 0 41.1 30-39 1010.9 2713.8218.2 68.7 4512.2 40-49 2931.5 9448763.6 1724.6 147(39.9) 50-59 3323.5 4525116.7 3250.0 111(30.2) 60 1920.7 2814.3 0 1420.3 6116.6 50.94 48.33 -- 52.44 49.57 0 2010.2 19.1 1115.9 328.6 1516 8040.8327.3 2434.812233.0 7984 9649763.6 3449.321658.4 60(63.8) 140(71.1) 7(70) 48(69.6) 255(68.9) 24(25.5) 30(15.2) 2(20) 12(17.4) 68(18.4) 0 9((4.6) 0 1(1.4) 10(2.7) 10(10.6) 18(9.1) 1(10) 8(11.6) 37(10) 6164.918191.9436.4 5275.429880.3 3335.1 168.1763.6 1724.6 7319.7 5962.811659.2436.4 4869.622761.4 1718.1 4120.9545.5 710.1 7018.9 1819.1 3919.9218.2 1420.3 7319.7 6670.2 8844.9981.8 2840.619151.6 2829.810855.1218.2 4159.417948.4 1415.4 5327.3 550 2029.4 9225.3 7784.614172.7 550 4870.627174.7 33.3 94.7 0 46.0 164.5 8896.718295.310100 639434395.5 5 56.8 6634.9 1100 311.5 7526.0 6-10 79.6 4825.4 0 830.8 6321.8 11-20 2027.4 5127.0 0 726.9 7827.0 21 4156.2 2412.7 0 830.8 7325.3 24.07 10.67 -- 16.54 14.51 5 677211659.2 990 4058.823263.2 6-10 1819.4 4221.4 0 1217.6 7219.6 11 88.6 3819.4 110 1623.5 6317.2 263
264
/ 1990 80(95.2) 31(96.9) 13995.984(94.4) 13(92.9) 13(92.9) 9(100.0) 9(100.0) 241(95.6) 137(95.1) 4(4.8) 1(3.1) 6(4.1) 5(5.6) 1(7.1) 1(7.1) 0 0 11(4.4) 7(4.9) 20-29 5(6.2) 1(3.1) 6(4.1) 2(2.2) 0 0 0 0 11(4.4) 3(2.1) 30-39 19(22.6) 4(12.5) 35(24.1) 13(14.6) 2(14.3) 2(14.3) 0 0 56(22.2) 19(13.2) 40-49 41(48.8) 13(40.6) 67(46.2) 42(47.2) 5(35.7) 5(35.7) 3(33.3) 3(33.3) 116(46.0) 63(43.8) 50-59 18(21.4) 13(40.6) 34(23.4) 31(34.8) 6(42.9) 6(42.9) 3(33.3) 3(33.3) 61(24.2) 53(36.8) 60 1(1.2) 1(3.1) 3(2.1) 1(1.1) 1(7.1) 1(7.1) 3(33.3) 3(33.3) 8(3.2) 6(4.2) 43.58 47.19 44.54 46.69 48.79 48.79 54.11 54.11 44.80 47.47 30(37) 7(21.9) 59(41.3) 28(31.5) 4(28.6) 4(28.6) 3(33.3) 3(33.3) 96(38.9) 42(29.2) 24(29.6) 7(21.9) 44(30.8) 32(36) 8(57.1) 8(57.1) 6(66.7) 6(66.7) 82(33.2) 53(36.8) 27(33.3) 18(56.3) 40(28) 29(32.6) 2(14.3) 2(14.3) 0 0 69(27.9) 49(34.0) 72(85.7) 23(71.9) 119(82.1) 69(77.5) 11(78.6) 11(78.6) 6(66.7) 6(66.7) 208(82.5) 109(75.7) 12(14.3) 9(28.1) 26(17.9) 20(22.5) 3(21.4) 3(21.4) 3(33.3) 3(33.3) 44(17.5) 35(24.3) 78(92.9) 30(93.8) 124(86.1) 72(80.9) 10(71.4) 10(71.4) 6(66.7) 6(66.7) 218(86.9) 118(81.9) 4(4.8) 2(6.3) 9(6.3) 8(9.0) 1(7.1) 1(7.1) 1(11.1) 1(11.1) 15(6.0) 12(8.3) 2(2.4) 0 11(7.6) 9(10.1) 3(21.4) 3(21.4) 2(22.2) 2(22.2) 18(7.2) 14(9.7) 48(57.1) 26(81.3) 89(61.4) 57(64.0) 10(71.4) 10(71.4) 7(77.8) 7(77.8) 154(61.1) 100(69.4) 36(42.9) 6(18.8) 56(38.6) 32(36.0) 4(28.6) 4(28.6) 2(22.2) 2(22.2) 98(38.9) 44(30.6) 7(8.3) 4(12.5) 24(16.8) 17(19.5) 1(7.7) 1(7.7) 4(44.4) 4(44.4) 36(14.5) 26(18.4) 77(91.7) 28(87.5) 119(83.2) 70(80.5) 12(92.3) 12(92.3) 5(55.6) 5(55.6) 213(85.5) 115(81.6) ( ) 9(10.7) 4(12.5) 25(17.2) 13(14.6) 2(14.3) 2(14.3) 2(22.2) 2(22.2) 38(15.1) 21(14.6) 75(89.3) 28(87.5) 120(82.8) 76(85.4) 12(85.7) 12(85.7) 7(77.8) 7(77.8) 214(85.9) 123(85.4) ( ) 40(50.6) 12(41.4) 80(59.3) 44(55.0) 7(58.3) 7(58.3) 4(50.0) 4(50.0) 131(56.0) 67(51.9) 37(46.8) 15(51.7) 54(40.0) 36(45.0) 5(41.7) 5(41.7) 3(37.5) 3(37.5) 99(42.3) 59(45.7) 2(2.5) 2(6.9) 1(0.7) 0 0 0 1(12.5) 1(12.5) 4(1.7) 3(2.3) 18(21.4) 5(15.6) 31(21.4) 15(16.9) 1(7.1) 1(7.1) 0 0 50(19.8) 21(14.6) 66(78.6) 27(84.4) 114(78.6) 74(83.1) 13(92.9) 13(92.9) 9(100.0) 9(100.0) 202(80.2) 123(85.4) 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1(0.4) 0 265
6-10 6(7.1) 1(3.1) 7(4.9) 3(3.4) 0 0 0 0 13(5.2) 4(2.8) 11 78(92.9) 31(96.9) 135(94.4) 85(96.6) 14(100) 14(100) 9(100) 9(100) 236(94.4) 139(97.2) 23.96 26.88 25.55 27.40 28.64 28.64 35.89 35.89 25.56 27.94 5 54(70.1) 20(69) 93(66.9) 60(68.2) 10(71.4) 10(71.4) 3(42.9) 3(42.9) 160(67.5) 93(67.4) 6-10 14(18.2) 8(27.6) 33(23.7) 24(27.3) 2(14.3) 2(14.3) 3(42.9) 3(42.9) 52(21.9) 37(26.8) 11 9(11.7) 1(3.4) 13(9.4) 4(4.5) 2(14.3) 2(14.3) 1(14.3) 1(14.3) 25(10.5) 8(5.8) 266
/ 1996 79(94) 21(80.8) 127(94.1) 85(94.4) 11(91.7) 11(91.7) 7(87.5) 7(87.5) 224(93.7) 124(91.2) 5(6.0) 5(19.2) 8(5.9) 5(5.6) 1(8.3) 1(8.3) 1(12.5) 1(12.5) 15(6.3) 12(8.8) 20-29 11.2 0 21.5 0 0 0 0 0 31.2 0 30-39 1517.627.73122.81617.8433.3433.3 0 0 5020.82216.2 40-49 4755.31557.76850.04752.2650650112.5112.12250.66950.7 50-59 2023.5934.63425.02628.9216.7216.7450 4506024.94130.1 60 22.4 0 10.711.1 0 0 337.5337.562.542.9 40-49 40-49 40-49 40-49 30-39 40-49 50-59 40-49 40-49 40-49 2631.727.72418.055.6 0 0 225 2255222.196.7 911.0415.41612.077.9325325225 2253012.81611.9 4757.32076.99369.97786.5975975450 45015365.111081.5 7896.3208712695.580931010010100450 45021890.211489.8 33.731364.5 67 0 0 450 45024101310.2 4(4.7) 1(3.8) 7(5.1) 7(7.7) 0 0 2(25) 2(25) 13(5.4) 10(7.3) 81(95.3) 25(96.2) 130(94.9) 84(92.3) 12(100) 12(100) 6(75) 6(75) 229(94.6) 127(92.7) ( ) 20(23.5) 7(26.9) 24(17.5) 18(19.8) 3(27.3) 3(27.3) 1(12.5) 1(12.5) 48(19.9) 29(23.1) 65(76.5) 19(73.1) 113(82.5) 73(80.2) 8(72.7) 8(72.7) 7(87.5) 7(87.5) 193(80.1) 107(78.7) ( ) 7385.91869.211281.86773.6758.3758.3787.5787.519982.29972.3 89.4519.22115.32022325325112.5112.53313.62921.2 44.7311.542.944.4216.7216.7 0 0 104.196.6 5058.82076.98764.06773.6975975675 67515263.110274.5 3541.2623.14936.02426325325225 2258936.93525.5 7083.3218410781.76880770770571.4571.418981.510179.5 1416.741621161517.6330330228.6228.64017.22418.9 0 0 32.322.4 0 0 0 0 31.321.6 2731.8519.24532.82931.9650650112.5112.57932.64129.9 5868.22180.89267.26268.1650650787.5787.516367.49670.1 5 55.927.72216.199.9 0 0 0 0 2711.2118.0 6-10 1214.1 0 2115.31213.2541.7541.7112.5112.53916.11813.1 267
11 68802492.39468.67076.9758.3758.3787.5787.517672.710878.8 17.61 19.68 14.04 16.10 13.33 17.47 20.75 19.47 15.48 16.23 5 5665.91869.2100736874.71083.31083.38100810017471.910475.9 6-10 1821.2623.12316.81718.718.318.3 0 0 4217.42417.5 11 1112.927.71410.266.618.318.3 0 0 2610.796.6 268