T_ReportAbstract T_FSAndVSAbstract T_Graph T_ YieldInfo 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 188.3 349.1 531.8 895.9 1,403.4 Growth(%) 69.1% 85.4% 52.3% 68.5% 56.6% 20.3 31.5 49.4 89.4 144.5 Growth(%) 116.7% 55.4% 56.8% 80.9% 61.7% (%) 26.4% 25.4% 24.5% 24.8% 25.1% (%) 10.8% 9.0% 9.3% 10.0% 10.3% () 0.25 0.39 0.62 1.12 1.81 () 1.24 2.04 7.18 8.30 10.11 161.5 103.9 66.3 36.6 22.6 32.9 20.1 5.7 4.9 4.0 (%) 20.4% 19.3% 8.6% 13.5% 17.9% ROIC(%) 74.5% 101.6% 42.1% 44.5% 43.2% EV/EBITDA 87.3 62.9 50.7 29.7 18.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% T_RankInfo -A 56.00 6 42.64 2010-03-13 T_MarketInfo 3,411.20 852.80 80.00 20.00 28.02/55.00 % 12 % 10.34 8.38 (29.46) 9.78 (1.18) 17.14 T_Analyst 010-66581625 houli@essence.com.cn T_RelatedReport 1
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T_FSAndVS 2010-2-25 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 188.3 349.1 531.8 895.9 1,403.4 138.5 260.4 401.5 673.9 1,051.2 69.1% 85.4% 52.3% 68.5% 56.6% 5.6 10.6 16.0 26.9 42.1 117.6% 52.9% 50.6% 82.8% 62.3% 3.4 10.6 17.0 28.7 44.9 116.7% 55.4% 56.8% 80.9% 61.7% 14.1 24.9 38.3 64.5 101.0 EBITDA 110.6% 62.5% 49.0% 73.3% 60.9% 0.6 1.7 2.2 0.2 0.2 EBIT 110.6% 56.1% 49.5% 75.9% 62.2% 2.9 4.2 4.0 4.9 6.9 NOPLAT 110.7% 58.9% 54.5% 74.5% 61.6% - - - - - 16.4% 273.4% 65.1% 66.4% 55.6% -0.2-1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 199.4% 63.7% 252.7% 15.6% 21.8% 23.0 35.2 53.0 96.8 157.1 0.5 1.7 3.5 2.5 3.5 26.4% 25.4% 24.5% 24.8% 25.1% 23.5 36.8 56.5 99.3 160.6 12.2% 10.1% 10.0% 10.8% 11.2% 3.2 5.3 7.1 9.9 16.1 10.8% 9.0% 9.3% 10.0% 10.3% 20.3 31.5 49.4 89.4 144.5 EBITDA/ 12.5% 11.0% 10.8% 11.1% 11.4% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E EBIT/ 12.5% 10.6% 10.4% 10.8% 11.2% 71.9 80.7 465.7 449.7 447.7 - - - - - 15 22 21 11 7 84.1 116.1 168.7 284.2 445.3 39 55 84 93 101-0.3 1.5 2.5 3.8 308 306 420 403 336 12.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 37 46 49 47 48 63.4 138.7 218.9 367.4 573.1 81 104 121 118 121-0.0 - -0.0-0.0 0.0 327 331 445 418 346 - - - - - 58 80 109 108 110 - - - - - - - - - - ROE 20.4% 19.3% 8.6% 13.5% 17.9% - - - - - ROA 8.3% 7.9% 5.4% 7.7% 9.4% 8.1 34.2 27.6 26.8 26.1 ROIC 74.5% 101.6% 42.1% 44.5% 43.2% 0.1-0.6 1.0 1.2 - - 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 2.8 4.0 7.6 8.0 8.2 7.5% 7.1% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 243.2 399.0 915.5 1,164.5 1,530.5 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 5.1 40.0 50.0 49.1 48.4 / 9.6% 10.7% 10.8% 10.4% 10.4% 68.9 117.7 220.0 369.3 576.0 6.4 8.5 16.5 27.7 43.2 59.1% 59.2% 37.2% 43.0% 47.2% 63.1 69.9 70.5 70.5 70.5 144.4% 144.9% 59.4% 75.4% 89.3% - - - - - 1.62 1.53 2.58 2.25 2.07 0.3 - - - - 1.18 0.94 1.93 1.52 1.27 143.7 236.1 341.0 500.6 722.1 38.03 21.56 25.28 510.94 812.08 - - - - - 52.0 60.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 DPS() - - - - - 47.5 102.9 494.5 583.9 728.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.5 162.9 574.5 663.9 808.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E - 31.5 49.4 89.4 144.5 EPS() 0.25 0.39 0.62 1.12 1.81-1.5 2.1 2.1 2.3 BVPS() 1.24 2.04 7.18 8.30 10.11-4.2 4.0 4.9 6.9 PE(X) 161.5 103.9 66.3 36.6 22.6 - - - - - PB(X) 32.9 20.1 5.7 4.9 4.0 - - 2.0 2.2 0.2 P/FCF 304.1-142.8-163.8-72.5-76.9-1.6-0.0-0.0-0.0 P/S 17.4 9.4 6.2 3.7 2.3 - - - - - EV/EBITDA 87.3 62.9 50.7 29.7 18.7 0.3-86.4-28.2-109.5-152.7 CAGR(%) 64.0% 66.2% 65.7% -100.0% -100.0% - -45.4 29.4-12.9 1.1 PEG 2.5 1.6 1.0-0.4-0.2-4.1-10.7-2.1-2.1-2.1 ROIC/WACC 7.5 10.3 4.2 4.5 4.4 35.4 61.1 370.0-1.1-1.0 REP 8.4 1.9 3.4 2.0 1.3 Wind.NET 15
T_AuthorInfo 6 300 15% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300-5% 5% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300 15% A 300 B 300 T_Sales 021-67865293 zhuxian@essence.com.cn 021-68765237 lingjie@essence.com.cn 021-68766067 liangtao@essences.com.cn 021-68763872 ligr@essence.com.cn 021-68763879 zhangqin@essence.com.cn 021-68765206 nanfang@essence.com.cn 010-59113563 zhourong@essence.com.cn 010-59113565 lixin@essence.com.cn 010-59113593 mazn@essence.com.cn 0755-82558268 panlin@essence.com.cn 0755-82558087 wangyy3@essence.com.cn 0755-82558069 liuhuan@essence.com.cn : 518026 : 200122 : 100034 16