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2008 4 : ( ( IIASA), (CDP) ) 5 12, 10, 500, 2000 3000,,,,,,, 700 ; 5000,,, :????????,?? :,,,,,,,,, :, ( 1) 1 ( % ) (2005 ) 111935 75. 31 65. 34 15. 96 18. 7 ( ) (2005 ) 160301 90. 54 83. 19 5. 58 11. 23 515830 67. 29 69. 16 16. 25 14. 58 484224 79. 65 81. 74 6. 47 11. 79 621980 57. 81 67. 93 13. 86 18. 21 362712 82. 17 84. 39 4. 34 11. 27 82348296 81. 02 77. 61 8. 69 13. 71 3743. 70 36. 10 7110. 20 79. 84 5037. 50 79. 53 2995. 40 79. 63 2579. 30 : Long Table from 9. 5% Samp le Data; 2000 ; 2005 rural household survey; 2005 Population Survey, 2005 Rural Household Survey. 1 : 8 75% - 91%, ; ;. (www. gov. cn 2008-06 - 04) 22
:,,,,,,,,,,,, 1 (D isaster Safety Nets),, : (1) ; (2) ; ( 3),,, ( ),,, 1 : L innerooth - Bayer, 2001 1 90, 1, : (1),, ; ( 2 ) ; ( 3 ) ( ) 1, 1997, 57% ( ) ; 1998, 17%, Umbria,, 1998, Northridge,,, ( The US National Flood Insurance Program ),,, ( ), 2 211,, : (1) ; (2), Austria. Linnerouth - Bayer, 2001, Seven Case Studies of Earthquake and Flood Disaster, Survey Report, 2001, IIASA, Laxenburg, 32
2008 4,, 2002 Elbe, 91, 96,,, 2001 Gujaral, 24,, 7 212,, 2 (2000 GDP ) (1985-1999) : L innerouth - bayer, 2007 2,,, 9361, 1 /3, 1-2%, 3 ( the Extended D isa ste r Safe ty N e ts),,, :, ( ),,,,,,, 2004, ( The Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool) ( Parson, 2004),, 2004 2034, 0. 41 ( ), ( ),,,,,,,,,,, :, Linnerouth - Bayer J.,Mechler R., 2007. Disaster safety nets for developing countries: extending public - private partnerships. Environmental Hazards, Nr. 7, pp 54-61, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Parson T., 2004. Recalibrated Probability of M 7 Earthquakes Beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, B05304. Washington, USA. 42
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