1
2
3
4 1 1...2..3 5.8...9..14..20...26..28..35..41...45.47..58... 64.65. 71.76...84....84.....85
.86 5
6..11..12 14..15..16..17..19..20..21..21..22..23..24..24..36..37.. 38.. 39.. 41..42..42..43..47..48..48 産..50 産..51 産..52..53..54..55
1 2000 P.101~127 2 3 2000 7 9 18 WTO 2002 1 P.3 7
8
9
10 WTO
11
12
13
1979 14
4 1978 14 5 6 1988 P.2 15
8 : 9 2000 11 16
1978 9514 7451 2048 15 1980 10525 8019 2425 81 1985 12808 8990 3324 38 6 450 1990 14728 10346 3549 96 57 4 62 614 1991 15266 10664 3628 49 68 69 96 692 1992 15625 10889 3621 56 98 83 138 740 1993 15947 10920 3393 66 164 186 155 133 930 1994 16806 11214 3285 52 292 332 211 195 1225 1995 17336 11261 3147 53 317 485 272 241 1560 1996 17541 11244 3016 49 363 620 265 275 1709 1997 17688 11044 2883 43 468 750 281 300 1919 1998 15918 9058 1963 136 48 484 410 973 294 293 2259 1999 15576 8572 1712 144 46 603 420 1053 306 306 2414 2000 14988 8102 1499 155 42 687 457 1268 310 332 2136 2001 14782 7640 1291 153 45 841 483 1527 326 345 2131 17
2002 18
11 ( ) ( ) (Andrew Walder ) 2000P.91~92Lowell Dittmer and Lu XiaoboPersonal Politics in the Chinese Danwei under ReformAsian SurveyVol. XXXVINo. 3 (March 1996): P.246-267 Andrew G. WalderWorkers, Managers, and the State: The Reform Era and the Political Crisis of 1989 in The Individual and the State in Chinaedited by Brian Hook (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1996) P.43-69 12 Xiaonong Cheng Breaking the Social Contractin Dilemmas of Reform in Jiang Zemin s China edited by Andrew J.NathanZhaohui Hong and Steven R.SmithBoulderLynne Rienner Publishers 1999P.107~126 13 Wei YuFinancing Unemployment and Pension Insurancein Dilemmas of Reform in Jiang Zemin s China edited by Andrew J.NathanZhaohui Hong and Steven R.SmithBoulderLynne Rienner Publishers1999P.127~138 14 (1999) 2000 3 P.6~10 19
1978 77.63 22.37 22.37 ----- 1979 78.47 21.53 21.53 ----- 1980 75.97 24.03 23.54 0.49 1981 74.78 25.22 24.61 0.61 1982 74.46 25.54 24.82 0.72 1983 73.36 26.64 25.74 0.90 1984 69.08 30.92 29.71 1.21 1985 64.86 35.14 32.08 3.06 1986 62.26 37.74 33.52 4.22 1987 59.73 40.27 34.62 5.65 1988 56.81 43.19 36.14 7.05 1989 56.06 43.94 35.69 8.25 1990 54.06 45.40 35.63 9.77 1991 52.94 47.06 35.70 11.36 1992 48.09 51.91 38.04 13.87 1993 43.13 56.87 38.36 18.51 1994 40.80 59.20 38.80 20.40 1995 33.97 66.03 36.59 29.44 15 2000 2 70 P.13~15 20
16 Nd=Nd(W/P)Ns=Ns(W/P)Nd=NsY=f(N)Coale, A. J. 1981. Population trends, population policy, and population studies m China. Population and Development Review 7:85-97 17 Rees, A. 1979. The economics of-work and pay. New York: Harper & Row.P.52~63 21
1998 1999 2000 2001 973 1053 1268 1527 737 969 1139 1187 1710 2022 2407 2714 2.42% 2.83% 3.34% 3.72% 2259 2414 2136 2131 3855 3827 2934 2629 6114 6241 5070 4760 8.66% 8.74% 7.03% 6.52% 587 612 642 671 0.83% 0.86% 0.89% 0.92% 11.08% 11.57% 10.37% 10.24% 88.09% 87.57% 88.74% 88.84% 2002 18 22
23 産 2002
24
1978 88.815 77.63 11.185 11.185 11.185 ----- 1979 89.235 78.47 10.765 10.765 10.765 ----- 1980 87.74 75.97 11.77 12.26 11.77 0.49 1981 87.085 74.78 12.305 12.915 12.305 0.61 1982 86.87 74.46 12.41 13.13 12.41 0.72 1983 86.23 73.36 12.87 13.77 12.87 0.9 1984 83.935 69.08 14.855 16.065 14.855 1.21 1985 80.9 64.86 16.04 19.1 16.04 3.06 1986 79.02 62.26 16.76 20.98 16.76 4.22 1987 77.04 59.73 17.31 22.96 17.31 5.65 1988 74.88 56.81 18.07 25.12 18.07 7.05 1989 73.905 56.06 17.845 26.095 17.845 8.25 1990 71.875 54.06 17.815 27.585 17.815 9.77 1991 70.79 52.94 17.85 29.21 17.85 11.36 1992 67.11 48.09 19.02 32.89 19.02 13.87 1993 62.31 43.13 19.18 37.69 19.18 18.51 1994 60.2 40.8 19.4 39.8 19.4 20.4 1995 52.265 33.97 18.295 47.735 18.295 29.44 25
2002 19 26
20 2000 産 爲 産 産 爲 http://www.wjtz.com.cn/yanjiu/802.htm 2002 4 16 27
21 M2 M1 M0 1990 15293.4 6950.7 2644.4 1991 19349.9 8633.3 3177.8 1992 25402.2 11731.5 4336.0 1993 34879.8 16280.4 5864.7 1994 46923.5 20540.7 7288.6 1995 60750.5 23987.1 7885.3 1996 76094.9 28514.8 8802.0 1997 90995.3 34826.3 10177.6 1998 104498.5 38953.7 11204.2 1999 119897.9 45837.2 13455.5 2000 134610.3 53147.2 14652.7 2001 158301.9 59871.6 15688.8 爲 爲 2002 M2 21 2003 01 17 22 M0 M1M0+ + M2M1+ + + 28
1998 104498.5 88.09% 92053 11578 1999 119897.9 87.57% 104995 13872 2000 134610.3 88.74% 119453 13959 2001 158301.9 88.85% 140651 16210 23 29
1998 119048 33621 28.24% 20372 17.11% 60.59% 1999 126111 35571 28.21% 22928 18.18% 64.46% 2000 85674 20156 23.53% 5220 6.09% 25.90% 2001 95449 17229 18.05% 8760 9.18% 50.84% 1998 92053 60.59% 55778 11578 44200 1999 104995 64.46% 67676 13872 53804 2000 119453 25.90% 30936 13959 25 16977 2001 140651 50.84% 71513 16210 55303 24 25 2000 30
26 2000 P.226~227 31
27 28 27 P.34~45 28 1998 4 32
33
産 2003 30 爲 29 産 産 産 産 爲 産 産産産 30 2001 9 P.113~120 31 32 20 95 33 http://www.xici.net/board/doc.asp?id=26588886&sub=0&doc_old=0 34 34
産 産 産 産爲 産 産 産 産 35 http://www.hzdby.com/ 2003 04 10 35
産産 産 産 産 爲 産 産 産 爲 爲 36
爲 爲 爲 爲 36 産 産 爲産 産 産 産 37
爲 爲 38 10 2000 4 P.29~39 39 2001 3 P.12~14 40 2001 2 P.194~224 41 2001 1 P.83~106 38
. 42 43 2001 4 P.6~17 44 45 2002 5 P.227~434 46 1998 6 39
P.187~192 40
爲 産 47 爲 爲 41
産 1996.8.23 1997.10.23 1998.3.25 1998.7.1 1998.12.7 1999.6.10 1.98 1.71 1.71 1.44 1.44 0.99 3 3.33 2.88 2.88 2.79 2.79 1.98 5.40 4.14 4.14 3.96 3.33 2.16 1 7.47 5.67 5.22 4.77 3.78 2.25 2 7.92 5.94 5.58 4.86 3.96 2.43 3 8.28 6.21 6.21 4.95 4.14 2.70 5 9.00 6.66 6.66 5.22 4.50 2.88 2.70 3.33 2.88 2.88 2.79 2.79 5.40 4.14 4.14 3.96 3.33 6.66 7.47 5.67 5.22 4.77 3.78 42
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Ml/M2 44.37% 39.48% 37.47% 38.27% 37.27% 36.42% 爲 48 2000 1 49 1997 12 24 [1997]560 50 1999 2000 1 P.12~13 51 43
産 産爲 産爲 産 産 爲 産 産 AMC 2001 12 P.178~197 52 爲 爲 産 http://acad.ltcw.org/1999/page-4-05.asp 44
産 53 45
http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2002-05/15/content_393714.htm 46
1998 92053 60.59% 55778 11578 44200 1999 104995 64.46% 67676 13872 53804 2000 119453 25.90% 30936 13959 16977 2001 140651 50.84% 71513 16210 55303 47
1998 55778 11578 44200 1999 67676 13872 53804 2000 30936 13959 16977 2001 71513 16210 55303 2000 2001 2000 2001 135483.7 154876.1 135483.7 154876.1 123804.4 143617.2 99371.1 112314.7 44093.7 51546.6 65748.1 67327.2 3508.1 3369.8 17019.3 18636.7 2224.3 2852.8 17868.5 18563.4 64332.4 73762.4 1617.1 2099.6 2642.9 3083.3 4889.0 5711.5 2873.6 2689.8 6060.8 6413.0 4129.4 6312.5 654.6 918.0 30.2 51.4 3049.8 3263.5 368.3 484.5 14589.0 11721.6 14652.7 15688.8 27931.2 39328.1-3371.9-4965.8 2409.7 2497.6 48 3282.1 3251.8 19651.1 22112.7 産 576.3 754.2 12.0 256.0 14291.1 17856.4 1582.1 1582.1
1998 43780 3.24 30.864 1418.5 1999 53269 3.24 30.864 1725.9 2000 16322.4 3.24 30.864 528.8 2001 54384.96 3.24 30.864 1762.1 M0 54 54 49
爲 爲 50
WTO 51
52
WTO WTO WTO 55 56 2001 12 11 2002 12 1 2003 1 08 57 58 53
54
59 M1/GNP 55
産産産 産 産産 産 産 産 産 産 産 56
産 産 産 爲 産産 産 産 産 産 57
産産 産 爲 産 産 産 産 産 産 産 産 58
産 爲 爲 産 60 59
爲 産 滙 産 爲 爲 60
産 産産 爲 産 産 産 産 産 61
産 産 産 爲 産 爲 衆 61 爲 62
63
WTO WTO 爲 産 WTO 爲 爲 62 2000 5 P.35~42 64
産 産 WTO 爲 63 産爲 64 産 産 65
爲 爲 産 衆 65 66 WTO 2000 2 P.39~41 66
爲 産 産 67 1999 6 P.173~183 67
爲 爲 産 衆 爲 68 1998 1998 4 P.170~171 68
69 69
70 TBTF 2001 8 P.39~42 70
71
8 71 72 73 19995 12453 20025 17000 74 90 71 1997 12 P.60~75 72 2002 6 860 6300 73 60 40 GDP 37 85 90 70 75 1978 15 1997 76.5 1978 48.1 36.91997 1.8 21.7 S. PudneyIncome and Wealth in Equility and Life CycleA non-paramatric analysis for ChinaJournal of Applied Econometrics.Vol.8.1993P.249~276 74 Joe Studwell 2002 9 P.155~162 72
75 75 1999P.96~97 73
76 2003 01 17 74
77 1999 2 2000 1 P.196~199 78 75
79 2003 2 283 P.19~21 80 2001 5 P.7~46 76
WTO WTO 産 81 2000 5 P.35~42 82 爲爲 爲 爲 爲 爲 爲 爲 83 爲爲 爲 爲 爲 77
WTO WTO 爲 爲 爲 84 爲爲 爲 産爲 産 85 爲 爲 78
爲 産 爲産 産 爲 86 87 21 2000 5 P.277~295 79
爲 爲産 衆 88 89 爲 80
爲 爲 WTO 衆 産 WTO 90 1998 7 P.1~17 81
爲 82
爲 爲 83
92 2000 9 P.4~6 84
93 2000 11 P.21~25 94 http://business.sohu.com/91/28/article204882891.shtml 爲 85
86
87
88
95 http://business.sohu.com/ 89
96 2003 1 7 90
91
92
93
94
95
産 96
97
98
産 99
1Andrew G. WalderWorkers, Managers, and the State: The Reform Era and the Political Crisis of 1989in The Individual and the State in Chinaedited by Brian Hook (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1996) 2Coale, A. J. 1981. Population trends, population policy, and population studies m China. Population and Development Review 7:85-97 3Gordon,Robert J.Macroeconomics,5th1990 4Jack CalhounEconomicsprivate and public choice10 th edition South-Western 2003 5Janos Kornai&Bela MartosNon-price ControlNorth-Holland 1981 6Lowell Dittmer and Lu XiaoboPersonal Politics in the Chinese Danwei under ReformAsian SurveyVol. XXXVINo. 3 (March 1996) 7Matutes, C.,P.Regibeau, and K.Rockett, Compensation Schemes and Labor Market CompetitionPrice Rate Versus Wage Rate,Journal of Economics Management Strategy, 3,1994,P.325~353 8S. PudneyIncome and Wealth in Equility and Life CycleA non-paramatric analysis for ChinaJournal of Applied Econometrics.Vol.8.1993P.249~276 9Rees, A. 1979. The economics of-work and pay. New York: Harper & Row.P.52~63 10Wei Yu Financing Unemployment and Pension Insurance in Dilemmas of Reform in Jiang Zemin s Chinaedited by Andrew J.NathanZhaohui Hong and Steven R.SmithBoulderLynne Rienner Publishers1999 P.127~138 11William A.McEachernEconomics A Contemporary Introduction5thSouth-Western College Publishing1999 12Xiaonong Cheng Breaking the Social Contract in Dilemmas of Reform in Jiang Zemin s Chinaedited by Andrew J.NathanZhaohui Hong and Steven R.SmithBoulderLynne Rienner Publishers1999 P.107~126 100