1

... 6...6...6...6...6 1....6 2....7 3....7...7...7 1....7 2....7 3....8...8...9 1....9 2....9 3....9 4....9...10...10 1....10 2....10 3....10 4....10 5....10... 11... 11...13 1....13 2....13 3....13 4....14 5....14...14...15...15 1....15 2....15 3....16 4....17... 18 SWOT...18...18 1....18 2....18 3....20 4....21 2

5....21...21 1....21 2....22 3....22...22 1....22 2....22 3....22...23 1....23 2....23 3....23...23...23 1....23 2....23 3....24 4....24...24 1....24 2....25...27 1....27 2....28...29...29 1....29 2....29 3....30 4....30...30 1....30 2....31 3....31 4....32... 33...33...33...33...34...34...34...35...35...35...36...36...36...36 3

...36...36...37...37...37 1....37 2....37 3....38 4....39...39 1....39 2....40... 41...41...41...41 1....41 2....42 3....42...42...42 :...42...43...44 :...44 :...44 :...45 :...45...45...46...46...47... 48...48...48 1....48 2....48...48 1....49 2....49...49 1....49 2....49...50 1....50 2....50...50...50 1....50 2....51 4

3....51...51...51...51...51 1....51 2....51 3....52...52 1....52 2....52 3....52...53...53...53 1....53 2....54 3....54 4....54...54 1....54 2....55 3....55 4....55... 56 5

90 2008 6

2005 2008 310 1 1871 2002 2 1.. : [M].2000.240. 2 [ ]... :.1988.8 7

? 7 9 8 3. [M]. : 1992.426. 4.. [J] 1990(6). 5. [M]. :.2000.2 6.. : 1995.21-22. 7,...2008.142 8 http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_40b4aad80100b72w.html. 9.. [M]..57-59 8

10 11 8 10 11..[D].2005. 9

100 2007 260 261 264 10

264 11

12

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1 1 2 3 13

4 5 5. 1 2 40 3 2010 4 5 6 1 2 3 SWOT 14

2009 6 9 2009 9 12 2010 1 2011 10 2011 11 012 1 10 SWOT 10 7 2 10.02.26. 10.03.12. 10.03.26. 09.11.20 LHC 09.12.11. 10.02.19. 10 10.5.28. 11 15

10.10.16. 10.10.29. 10.11.19. 10.12.17. 10.12.10 11.03.04 11 11.03.18. 11.05.20. 12 ( ) 2010 11.03.05. 11.10.09. 11.11.03. 100 20 11.11.11. 11.12.02. 11.12.07. 11.12.09. 16

09.11.06 10.01.21 10.01.30. 10.12.17. 11.02.03 11.01.21. 11.04.08. 11.09.25. 11.11.19 17

SWOT 1748 264 1748 1770 1770 1902 1902 1905 1906 1913 1913 1923 1923 1928 1928 1929 1929 1930 1930 1933 1933 1937 1933 3 1937 1945 1938 1951 1941 1943 1945 1949 1949 1996 2 1996 1999 1997 2007 18

80 90 1999 19

20

1995 1999 2007 2008 2010 21

1999 40 15% 37% 38 76% 22

23

24

2008 25

2008 26

1988 1 2000 200 2 27

3 28

2 3 29

1 30

31

32

90 1974 36 33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

: 42

43

: : 44

: : ( 45

46

47

48

49

50

11 51

90 1 2 52

, 3 53

54

55

, 56

57