NSC-89-2412-H-029-007
() The East Asian Miracle 1 1 World Bank, 1993, The East Asian Miracle, N. Y., Oxford University Press. 1
() (market as a whole) 2
() 3
() 1 10 2 3 2 1991 121-122 3 1987 1987.09.23 4
() 4 5 1954.1.29 10.. 6 2 1 0.5 7 4 1 5 KI022001.12 6 1994 405 7 5
() Ferris(George M. Freeis) 43 1962 42 58 8 9 4 4 160 54 58 8 1992 28 9 KI02, FI26 6
() 10 1973 1972-1985 3616 1978 15 11 12 3 (1976) 1990 6 7 785 2 10 1991141-145 199229-30 11 12 FI02 7
() 13 ---- 14 4 (1987.10.29 ) 9 24 8789.78 4873.18 2 10 12495.34 10 1 2560.47 15 13 78 1 8 3 1989 1 30 9 147 6000 1 22 123.78 1989.01.22 1989.01.31 14 1988 2-3 1988.02-1988.04 1988.02-1988.03 K.. 60 (KI02) 15 2 162 (1990.03.16) 5 (5033088 ; 1990.12.31) 12495.34 (1990.02.10) 9 12 KI02 8
() 16 (1988) (1988) (1989) (1990 ) (1991) (1992) (1994) (1996 ) (MSCI) (1996) (1997) (1997) (2000) (2002). (2002) 1990 (QFII) (warrant) (ADR, GDR) 1991 30 1999 KI02 16 (1987.12.23-25) 9
() 24 PDA PDA 17 (market maker) (market regulator) (capital maker) (money maker) (market agent) 1993-2002 17 (Black board) (screen-based) PDA 10
() 11
() 1 18 19 (1985-1945) 20 18 1990 355-356, 571, 579-580 19 1883 1991 12,59 20 1991 121,196 12
() 1 2 20 21 / 2 63 4 4 1 60 6 21 1952-1960 1979 223-224 13
() 4 20 8 1 2 91 700 22 23 / ( (%) % (NT) ) 1940 5872084 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1950 7554399 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1960 10792202 -- -- 5,601 -- -- -- -- -- 1962 11511728 12,600 0.11 6,498 15,950 11.1 18 6,840 21.56 1965 13065473 -- -- 8,697 25,546 23.3 37 27,070 147.76 1970 14753911 21,151 0.14 15,544 49,886 57.9 42 16,970 106.97 1975 16223089 205,802 1.26 36,642 179,047 156.7 68 73,959 192.16 1980 17866008 362,271 2.01 84,398 503,911 480.6 102 219,053 107.84 1985 19313825 400,461 2.07 131,430 471,359 844.2 127 415,706 68.09 1986 19509082 473,758 2.42 151,148 500,656 1,125.2 130 548,436 162.11 1987 19725010 634,495 3.22 168,832 666,934 1,272.2 141 1,386,065 267.47 1988 19954397 1,606,170 8.04 182,511 833,925 1,245.2 163 3,383,280 332.63 1989 20156587 4,208,534 20.87 201,402 923,423 1,253.0 181 6,174,164 590.14 1990 20401305 5,033,088 24.67 218,092 994,119 1,293.9 199 2,681,911 506.04 1991 20605831 5,162,908 25.06 240,909 1,120,419 1,448.8 221 3,184,028 321.90 1992 20802622 5,078,340 24.41 264,338 1,362,411 1,582.6 256 2,545,508 161.33 1993 20995416 5,200,455 24.76 289,141 1,549,608 1,737.6 285 5,145,410 252.42 1994 21177874 5,492,478 25.93 311,726 1,640,619 1815.0 313 6,504,368 366.11 1995 21357431 5,734,866 26.85 335,182 1,777,496 1,927.8 347 5,108,437 227.84 1996 21525433 6,143,767 28.54 364,115 1,781,375 2,081.7 382 7,528,851 243.43 1997 21742815 7,746,543 35.65 390,103 2,016,446 2,221.1 404 9,696,113 368.46 1998 21928591 9,587,855 43.72 413,582 2,226,491 2,341.6 437 8,392,607 261.79 1999 22092387 10916426 49.39 427,097 2,171,372 2,442.4 462 11,803,524 288.62 2000 22276672 12359893 55.48 443,967 2,212,350 2,471.8 531 8,191,474 259.16 2001 22405568 12910531 57.62 -- -- -- 584 10,271,712 206.95 22 http://www.tse.com.tw/plan/autoweb/chinese/index.html (2002.11.01) 23 1991 2000 1996 http://www.tse.com.tw/plan/autoweb/chinese/index.html (2002.11.01) Taiwan Statistical Data Book 2001 2002 2000 --1980-1998 14
() (GNP) M1B (M2B) 24 2000 1999 1980-1990 25 24 1996 3 1993 1996 354 1999 1960 1970 GDPGNP 25 2000 1980-1998 1999. 1967 1980 1991 2000: 52.56.71.78 (M1b, M2) 1989 1990 1999: 83-4, 118-9,122-3 15
() 26 26 1988.01-1988.05 16
() 1 (individuals) (1) (Government Agency, 7.62%)(2) (Domestic Financial Institution, 4.42%)(3) (Domestic Trust Fund, 0.75%) (4) (Domestic Corporation, 22.59%)(5) (Other Juridical Person, 3.37%)(6) (Foreign Financial Institution, 0.25%)(7) (Foreign Juridical Person, 4.85%)(8) (Foreign Trust Fund, 3.05%)(9) Domestic Individual, 51.96%)(10) (Foreign Individual, 0.67)(11) (Share Buy-backs, 0.47%)11 27 27 20022001 http://www.tse.com.tw/plan/autoweb/chinese/index.html 17
() 51.96% 4 (1) (1990, 98.66%2001, 84.41%)(2) (1990 3.31%2001, 9.69%)(3) (1990, 0.01%2001, 0.01%)(4) (1990, 0.01%2001, 5.89%) 28 (corporation) (individual) 1990-2001 250% 20 100% (2002.10) 85% 29 2001 28 29 1999 1999 18
() 30 Elleen Hertz Mitchel T. Abolafia 2 (native point of view): (field ) (Ellen Hertz) 10 (stock fever) 31 (1) 30 (heterogeneous beliefs) Harrison(1978), Kreps(1978), Morris(1996), Kurz(1996) (rational belief) (structural knowledge) (endogenous uncertainty) 1999 31 Hertz Malinowski (system) (whole) (culture-as-system) Frederick Barth (closure) (Hertz, 1998, The Trading Crowd: An Ethnography of the Shanghai Stock Market, Cambridge University Press., p. 7.) 19
() (Guojia)(2) (the big player; dahu) (3) (the dispersed player; small player; sanhu) 32 (rumor, gossip) (information) (1) (crowd cluster) (2) (informal groups)(3) (informal clubs)(4) (adult-education classes)(5) (stock salons) 40 150 (grounded) 33 32 Hertz, 1998: 129, 152, 174, 188. 33 Abolafia Y. M. (cycle) (opportunism) (prudence) (public interest)(abolafia, 1996, Making Market: Opportunism and Restraint on Wall Street, Harvard University Press, p.7-9) 20
() 3 1999-2002 32 FI01-32 26 KI01-26 / / (corporation) (individual) (dispersed player) (big player) 34 34 FI-26 21
() 2/8 = 28 = 64 35 36 35 28 FI26, 20 36 2002 22
() 30 PDA 30 5 40 37 Allen 38 37 KI-02, KI-19 38 KI-16 23
() 1 Amy 39 10 39 KI-26 24
() 2002 10 10 3 6 40 PDA 40 KI-21 25
() 41 76 42 9 12 7 8 34 1994 1 (2001) 56 41 FI-24 42 KI-12 26
() 43 (screen-based) (1999 ) (2001) 43 KI-06 (200.07) (2002.07) 27
() Nasdaq 15 11 44 1 2 3 44 KI-03 (FI-16) 28
() as a whole 29
() redefining the markets 45 1 IPO Amy 1996 A IPO B Amy 46 45 46 KI-26 30
() 3 C XX 1/3 5 C 47 10% Amy 5 40% 48 10% 49 XXX 47 48 KI-25 49 31
() XXX 50 10 10% 30%XX 45% 10% 10% 1997 10% 6000 6000 IPO 6000 6000 Amy 51 50 KI-26 51 KI-25 32
() 52 5 6000 Amy A K 53 XXX 52 53 KI-06 33
() 54 A Amy 1997 A 3 12 4 26 54 34
() 55 KI-26 56 KI-25 35
() Allen.. 57 IC design 10 1 cycle cycle 58 Amy IC design 57 KI-16 58 KI-26 36
() 59 A 59 KI-25 37
() 2 Rober Shiller Eugene Fama 60 Shiller (amplification mechanisms) (new era) 3000 60 Rober Shiller. R., 2000, Irrational Exuberance, Princeton Uni. Press. 38
() etoys 80 Shiller Shiller (Irrational Exuberance) Robert C. Merton Myron Scholes 61 LTCM 61 Nicholas Dunbar, 2001, Inventing Money: The Story of Long-Term Capital Management and the legends behind it, John Wiley &Sons Ltd., P. xv. 39
() (market maker) (market regulator) 62 62 George M. Constantinides 2002 (social status) 40
() FI02 2000.06.26 FI03 2000.06.26 FI04 2000.06.26 FI07 2000.06.28 FI09 2001.01.09 FI11 2001.01.21 FI12 2001.03.28 FI13 2001.04.25 FI14 2001.08.19 FI15 2001.08.21 FI16 2001.08.27 FI17 2001.09.22 FI18 2001.09.24 FI19 2001.09.24 FI20 2001.09.25 FI21 2001.09.25 FI22 2001.09.25 FI23 2001.09.27 FI24 2001.11.26 FI25 2001.12.17 FI26 2002.02 FI27 2002.04.26 FI28 2002.05.24 FI29 2002.6.26 FI30 2002.09.20 FI31 2002.10.04 FI32 2002.10.11 FI33 2002.10.23 41
() KI-01 2001.05.13 30 KI-02 2001.12.29 58 KI-03 2001.08.19 34 KI-04 2001.08.27 (35-36) KI-05 2002.07.07 Alice 32 KI-06 2002.07.15 52 KI-07 2002.07.21 Ni 28 KI-08 2002.07.24 Amy 35 KI-09 2002.08.09 34 KI-10 2002.08.12 34 KI-11 2002.08.17 55 KI-12 2002.08.25 76 KI-15 2002.08.25 Amy 35 KI-16 2002.09.01 Allen 32 KI-19 2002.09.08 55 KI-21 2002.09.14 S.C.M. 55 KI-22 2002.09.14 S.C. 31 KI-23 2002.09.20 45 KI-24 2002.09.20 42 KI-25 2002.11 Amy 35 KI-26 2002.11 43 42