1986-2007 1. 2. 5 1 413
5 3. 5 1 5 4. 5. 414
415 6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
416 7. 1. 2. 3.
4. 5. G. Sartori 1 one party 2 hegemonic party 3 predominant party 4 two party 5 limited pluralism 6 extreme pluralism 7 atomized pluralism 417
418 6. 7. 1. 1 / 2 3
419 4 5 6 7 2. 3.
420 4. 5. 6. 7.
421 8. 9. 10.
1. 422
423 2. 5 1 5 3. 5 1 5 4a Party Realignment
4b Party System Realignment 5. 6. 424
425 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
426 7. 8. 1. 2.
427 3a 3b 4.
5. G. Sartori 1 one party 2 hegemonic party 3 predominant party 4 two party 5 limited pluralism 6 extreme pluralism 7 atomized pluralism 6. 11986-1993 1.80 428
429 21993-2000 2.55 32000-2005 3.48 7. 8.
430 1. 1 / 2 3 4 5 6 7 2.
431 3. 4. 5.
432 6. 7. 8. 9.
433 10. 11. 5 1 5
extra-linguistic behavior nonverbal behavior 434
435
1. 3.47 1. 436
2. 5 1 5 117 131 86 68 78 1 3.66 4.09 2.69 2.13 2.44 0.03 8. 9. 10. 437
3. 5 1 5 125 107 60 95 67 51 0 3.91 3.34 1.88 2.97 2.09 1.59 0 11. 438
4. 19 6 5 59 19 16 13. 14.(1)1992 (2)1998 15. 16. 17. 18. 19., 2000,, 439
440 5. 2.97 7. 8. 9. 10. 6. 1 3.71 2
3.07 3 3.64 4 3.46 5 3.64 6 2.21 7 2.11 8 0 7. 441
3.59 5. ( ) 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 1. 442
3.59 1. 2. 4 5. 6. 7. 8. 2. 3.59 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 443
444 3. 3.06 7. 8. 9. stable 10. 4. 3.06
2. 3. 4. 5. 6. stable 7.. 5. G. Sartori 1 one party 2 hegemonic party 3 predominant party 4 two party 5 limited pluralism 6 extreme pluralism 7 atomized pluralism 445
446 9. ( ) 10. ( ) 11.. a. blackmail potential b. ( ) 12. 6.
447 12. ( ) 13. ( ) 14. ( ) 15. 7.
448 ( ) 1. 2 1 / 4.5 2 3.93
449 3 3.86 4 4.29 5 4,46 6 3.89 7 3.36 8 0 ( ) 2.
4. 15. 3. 450
15. 1. 2. 10 10 40 4. 2.81 451
5. 452
6. 453
7. 2.97 454
统 8. 3.13 统 455
9. 3.13 456
10 6. 7. 8. 457
1. 3.42 2. 5 1 5 458
69 75 38 35 35 0 3.83 4.17 2.11 1.94 2.19 0 3. 5 1 5 74 66 41 50 37 28 3 4.11 3.67 2.28 2.78 2.06 1.56 0.17 4a Party Realignment 459
16 2 1 84 11 5 4b Party System Realignment 15 1 2 83 6 11 5. 460
461 3.47 6. 1 4.35 2 3.59 3 3.94 4
3.94 5 4.42 6 2.76 7 2.53 8 3.88 7. 3.68 462
8. 3.32 1. 3.79 463
464 2. 3.89 3a 2.84 3b 2.74
4. 3.21 5. G. Sartori 1 one party 2 hegemonic party 3 predominant party 4 two party 5 limited pluralism 6 extreme pluralism 465
466 7 atomized pluralism 6. 11986-1993 1.80 21993-2000 2.55 32000-2005 3.48
467 7. 8. 1. 1 / 4.42
468 2 3.74 3 3.68 4 4.32 5 4.21 6 3.47 7 3.47 8
469 0 2. 3. 4.
470 2.89 5. 5. 6.
471 1. 7. 3.26 8. 3.53
9. 3.26 10. 11. 5 1 5 4.38 472
3.94 2.65 3.71 2.71 2.53 2.18 0 3. 473
474 2007.10.19 14:00 20 20 20 20 20 82
475 14 14 21 20 30 15 20 20
2008 M 3 3 476
21 2008 2008 1 12 5 5 1 12 5 477
80 20 10 478
2007.10.22 10:00 1945 600 1945 1949 1949 200 1945 1945 320 479
Policy Consequences 113 PR justify 480
481
historical bloc 482
12.13% 20% 2% 25% demand supply 1993 1949 483
93 484
in general 113 10% 5% 96 10 485
200 250 73 3532 share 486
100% 70%80 agenda 1 12 5% 1 20 1 12 5% 1500 1500 1 3 487
10 20 minor case statement 70%80% 60%70% settle 488
ok 489
2008 490
491
2007.11.6 10:00 90% 90% 492
2005 2 24 493
2000 2000 10 27 2004 2 24 2 25 2 29 3 2008 2008 494
3%5% 495
88 K 496
4 9 3 31 2000 497
2000 498
2008 499
500
2007.11.9 14:00 501
502
503
504
505
506
507
2007.11.27 16:00 508
509
510
511
512
513
514
515
516
517
518
519
520
521
522
2007.12.14 14:30 30% 30% 40% 523
100% 1940 S 30% 30% party realignment 524
party party 7% OK 100% 525
2004 2004 2004 526
2004 527
100% 75% 75% 85% 40-60% 100% 20-50% 20-50% 120-150% 50-80% 528
100% 100% 5% - - 529
100% YAHOO NO 530
531
20% 50% 70%75% 5% 50% 50% 532
50% NO NO 533
2007.12.25 15:00 Party Realignment Party Realignment Party Realignment party De-alignment Party Realignment party change 534
Party system change Party change care 535
536
537
538
rational choice change 539
540
541
2004 8 23 542
543
544
545
2008.1.4 16:00 546
2004 2000 2004 547
2000 10% 15% 75% 75% 50 50 60 548
549 97 1997 2000 2000 2000 8
8 7 7 1995 3/4 1996 1/4 97 1999 7 97 550
85 146 2000 2000... 1944 7 7 551
7 7 7 1911 1947 2005 SNTV SNTV 2005 2005 552
2005 200 2005 73 5 73 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% TVBS 2/3 1/3 553
7 198 game theory 05 2004 2005 7 554
50 1 12 555
2004 50% 50% 556
2008.1.4 12:30 557
558
2000 559
sign 560
social action social action 561
562
5% 35% power 10-20% 10-20% 10% 15% 20% 45%55% 20% 563
20% share share 564