1975-1991 1975 1979 30 1991 1979 30 1991 1979 1975 1979 1979 1991 12 1 2 3 4 5 108
1975-1991 1972 2 21 1 2 27 2 1973 2 3 1975 4 1972 Watergate Affair 5 1974 8 9 1976 1978 5 20 23 Zbigniew Brezinski Samuel P. Huntington 1 1972 4 120-121 2 Richard Nixon The memoirs of Richard Nixon 1978 5 81 3 2000 4 376 4 Gareth Porter, The Sino-Vietnnamese Conflict in Southeast Asia,Current History, Vol. 75, No. 442, December, 1978, 193. 5 2000 5 06-3 109
12 15 1979 1 8 29 7 2 17 8 1980 1 4 9 1981 Ronald reagan 1982 1989 1972 6 5 George Bush 10 6 6 100 0 406 0 6 29 418 0 7 15 98 10 11 1991 1975 1976 6 Robert G. Sutter, China s Strategy towards Vietnam and its Implications for the United States, in The third Indochina Conflict ed. David w. P. Elliott Colorado: Westview Press, 1981, 163-192. 7 1979 3 1 2 8 21 9 1979 3 33 9 1980 5 25 2 10 1989 34 2 1990 2 26-39 11 32 10 1989 10 49-58 110
1975-1991 12 13 1979 14 80 1982 1985 3 4 13 3 2 6 2 15 1982 10 1982 10 16 1886 1985 Mikhail S. Gorbachev 17 Perstroika Glasnose 12 1999 12 167 13 1983 4 27 14 1999 12 168 15 1989 9 178 16 1993 57 169 17 Philip Taubman, Gorbachev Overhauling Foreign Policy System, International Herald Tribute August 11, 1986. 111
18 1986 7 28 19 1989 2 15 1990 75% 1991 10 23 20 1989 5 1975 1976 3 26 1977 3 3 21 1977 12 22 1978 9 23 1978 11 3 18 Henry A. Kissinger, Diplomacy, New York: Touchstone, 1994, 785-786. 19 1986 7 29 4 20 1989 2 1989 2 21-22 21 Keesing s Contemporary Archives, 8 April, 1977, 28280. 22 Marjorie Niehause, Vietnam 1978: The Elusive Peace, Asian Survey, Vol.XIX, No. 1, Jan 1979 : 92. 23 Murray Hiebert, United States, South East Asia International April-June 1980 : 110. 112
1975-1991 1984 7 13 2500 24 1985 9 R. Armitage Wolforwitz 1987 2 25 9 5 1 7 18 James Baker 9 19 26 1991 10 23 Richard Solomon 27 1978 6 29 28 1975 1 24 1985 6 8 25 Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam and ASEAN: A First Anniversary Assessment, in Southeast Asian Affairs, ed. Daljit Singh Singapoe: ISEA Press, 1997 : 365. 26 Douglas Pike, Vietnam in 1990: The Last Picture Show, Asian Survey, Vol. XXXI, No. 1, January 1991 : 79-86. 27 Douglas Pike, Vietnam in 1991: TheTuning Point, Asian Survey, Vol. XXXII, No. 1, January 1992 : 81. 28 1981 12 593 113
29 1976 30 1978 1978 6 29 Council of Mutual Economic Assistance 11 3 25 31 32 1979 100 1980 7 33 1982 10 34 29 1980 9 16-17 30 Sheldon Simon, Toward a U. S. Security Policy in Southeast Asia: A Maritime Emphasis, in A. U. S. Foreign Policy for Asia, ed. Ramon H. Myers Stanford: Hoover Institution Press, 1982, 640. 31 Douglas Pike, Vietnam and the Soviet Union: Anatomy of an Alliance Boulder Colorado: Westview Press, Inc., 1987,184-185. 32 The Washington Post, 4 November 1978. 33 Marcer Barang, Hard Times for Hanoi, South January 1981 : 9-12. 34 1984 12 298-308 114
1975-1991 1987 35 4~1 1975 1986 141.6 100.72 1986 9.6 1982 9.825 5~1 1975-1986 1976 308.4 84.4-224.4 1977 372.0 176.1-195.9 1978 446.4 222.5-223.9 1979 680.3 225.0-455.3 1980 700.1 242.4-457.7 1981 1006.4 232.2-774.2 1982 1322.0 339.5-982.5 1983 1180.3 306.5-873.8 1984 1178.4 302.7-875.7 1985 1296.2 337.7-958.5 1986 1300.0 340.0-960.0 Douglas Pike, Vietnam and the Soviet Union: Anatomy of an Alliance Boulder Colorado: Westview Press, Inc., 1987, Table 6.2. 1982 9 12 12 12 35 1991 5 112 115
1973 2 1974 2 22 36 80 70 80 60 1978 12 11 3 37 1980 1 16 80 38 80 39 50 1982 3 24 10 36 2000 4 373 37 1964 1975 38 1975-1982 1993 203-204 39 116
1975-1991 1982 9 1 12 40 41 80 1989 1991 42 1989 9 28 43 The International Institute for Strategic Studies 1976 9 61 5 18 2 1 10 3 15 20 SAM regiments50 AA artillery regiments 5 150 1 400 8 100 30 20 44 1976 11 9 1 700 1 940 1 750 40 1984 1 4 41 1984 9 30 42 Michel Oksenberg, The China Problem, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 70, No. 3 Summer 1991 : 8-12. 43 1993 321 362 44 1983 4 411 117
4 2 13 45 1976 46 1978 12 25 12 1 7 1980 4 47 48 1986 7 9 9 49 1987 50 1986 12 51 45 1976 11 9 1983 4 411 46 2001 5 379 47 1991 5 32 48 1979 112 49 31 7 1988 7 77-87 50 1991 12 1991 12 67-69 51 1994 1994 5 29-31 118
1975-1991 1974-1978 1973 60 1969 52 1973 3 2 10 20 53 1887 1973 12 54 1974 8 52 1969 5 11 1970 1984 12 258-259 53 1984 12 259 54 1979 5 158 119
1974 8 1887 108 3 13 55 2/3 56 1977 10 1957 1958 57 58 1887 59 60 55 1980 1 93-94 56 Beijing Review, 29 Dec 1978, 22-23. 57 1957 11 1958 4 1979 5 158 58 1979 5 13 59 Beijing Review, 25 May 1979, 18. 60 1979 5 13 120
1975-1991 1979 4 18 5 18 6 28 12 19 1957 1958 12 61 1977-1978 120 85% 62 1977 63 1966 64 61 2001 5 379 62 Pao-min Chang, Beijing, Hanoi, and the Overseas Chinese Berkeley: University of California, 1982, 9. 63 Nguyen Manh Hung, The Sno-Vietnam Conflict: Power Play among Communist Neighbors, Asian Survey, Nov 1979 : 1041 64 1990 12 121
1977-1978 65 1955 66 67 1956 8 23 9 6 52 11 68 69 70 1960 1964 1965 1968 71 1976 2 72 1956 73 1977 6 22 65 1990 12 23 66 1989 9 145 67 Nguyen Manh Hung, The Sino-Vietnam Conflict: Power Play among Communist Neighbors, Asian Survey, Nov 1979 : 1041-1042. 68 11 1978 1 269 69 William Duiker, Vietnam: Nation in Revolution, Boulder: Westview Press, 1983, 53. 70 Beijing Review, 19 Oct 1981, 24-27. 71 1978 6 10 72 Gareth Porter, Vietnamese Policy and the Indochina Crisis, in The Third Indochina Conflict, ed. David Elliott Boulder: Westview Press, 1981, 74-75. 73 Nguyen Manh Hung, The Sno-Vietnam Conflict: Power Play among Communist Neighbors, Asian Survey, Nov 1979 : 1042 122
1975-1991 74 75 1978 76 1977 20 77 1977 4 78 1978 3 79 30 80 20 81 1978 74 Gareth Porter, Vietnamese Policy and the Indochina Crisis, in The Third Indochina Conflict, ed. David Elliott Boulder: Westview Press, 1981, 85. 75 152 1978 8 53 76 1990 12 24 77 Beijing Review, 7 Dec 1979, 20-21. 78 Beijing Review,15 June 1978, 15. 79 Justus M. Van der Kroef, Communism in South-East Asia London: Macmillan Press 1981 116-117. 80 Gareth Porter, Vietnamese Policy and the Indochina Crisis, in The Third Indochina Conflict, ed. David Elliott Boulder: Westview Press, 1981, 85. 81 Charles Benoit, Vietnam s Boat People, in The third Indochina War ed. David W. P. Elliott 123
1979 8 29 3 10-30% 82 1978 6 1 83 6 20 6 13 7 24 19 84 85 900 8 8 9 26 1955 86 Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1981, 139-162. 82 John C. Donnell, Vietnam 1979: Year of Calamity, Asian Survey, Jan 1980 : 25. 83 Beijing Review, 2 June 1978, 14-15. 84 1981 12 606 85 Nguyen Manh Hung, The Sno-Vietnam Conflict: Power Play among Communist Neighbors, Asian Survey, Nov 1979 : 1044. 86 2000 4 430-431 124
1975-1991 1978 5 12 21 30 51 72 3 15 6 16 7 3 88 87 6 1977-1979 1954 1979 1972 10 89 87 William S. Turley and Jeffrey Race, The third Imdochina War, Foreign Policy, Spring 1980 : 92-116. 88 Jon James Alexiou,The Foreign Policy of the People s Republic of China Towards the Socialist Republic of Vietnam,1975-1979, Coral Gables: University of Mia, 1982, 24. 89 1999 6 315 125
1975 8 1979 90 91 70 90 1984 12 101 91 1983 4 29 126
1975-1991 92 93 94 95 1955 96 97 92 1969 8 29 93 1979 1 16 94 1979 1 20 95 1982 12 2 96 1965 1983 4 422 97 2001 7 2001 7 33-37 127
1887 1893 30 1951 1975 98 1975 12 14 99 1977 7 25 6000 10 100 1975 11 1976 6 101 1979 1 11 15 20 102 98 1992 12 250 99 1983 4 413 100 1991 5 16 101 1992 12 252 102 1979 1 13 128
1975-1991 1975 103 6 8 104 105 1975 6 5 1977 12 1978 12 25 20 1979 1 7 106 1979 2 18 1979 3 22 107 1979-1988 30 103 1995 5 1995 5 67-68 104 Beijing Review, 19 Oct 1981, 27. 105 1971 1 Beijing Review, 22 August 1975, 6-12. 106 1991 5 17 107 1992 12 252 129
50 60 70 70 108 70 108 Jon James Alexiou, The Foreign Policy of the People s Republic of China Towards the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, 1975-1979 Coral gables: University of Miami Press, 1982, 6. 130
1975-1991 109 110 20 8 162 705 300 111 109 2000 3 22 110 1994 2 83 111 1979 2 18 131
112 30 30 113 114 1978 11 3 1978 8 12 115 1979 1 28 2 8 116 117 118 2 17 5 30 15 4 19 112 1979 2 3 1979 2 5 113 1996 8 170-171 114 1981 12 594 115 1978 8 14 116 Jimmy carter, Keeping Faith: Memoirs of a President New York: Bantam Books Press, 1982, 205-206. 117 Daniel Tretiak, China s Vietnam War and it s Consequences, The China Quarterly Dec 1979 : 744. 118 Daniel Tretiak, China s Vietnam War and it s Consequences, The China Quarterly Dec 1979 : 747. 132
1975-1991 3 3 4 5 17 25 120 119 5~1 Feb.14 Feb.14 Feb.14 Mar.4 Steven J. Hood, Dragons Entangled-Indochina and the China-Vietnam War New York: M. E. Sharp Inc. Press, 1992, 53. 5~2 26000 30000 37000 32000 260 1638 420 185 66 200 0 6 Chen King, China s War With Vietnam, 1979 Stanford: Hoover Institute Press, 1987, 114. 119 7 7 1992 1 99 120 Chen King, China s War With Vietnam, 1979 Stanford: Hoover Institute Press, 1987, 114. 133
1979 4-12 121 122 123 1979 2 124 Midway Constellation 125 121 1989 9 150-151 122 1992 5 174-179 123 1981 12 647-648 124 Jimmy Carter, Keeping Faith: Memoris of a President New York:Bantam Books, 1982, 237. 125 David Bonavia, Sowing the Seeds of a Bigger War, Far Eastern Economic Review Mar 1979, 13. 134
1975-1991 1982 9 80 126 80 127 126 Jon James Alexiou, The Foreign Policy of the People s Republic of China Towards the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, 1975-1979 Coral gables: University of Miami Press, 1982, 144. 127 Sarasin Viraphol, The People s Republic of China and Southeast Asia: A Security Consideration for the 1980s, in Economic, Political, and Security Issues in Southeast Asia in the 80s, ed. Robert A. Scaiapino and Jusuf Wanandi Berkeley: University of California, 1982, 149. 135
1979 1981 5 7 1984 4 28 5 18 128 1979 1985 1 1985 50 129 100 150 130 1988 6 6 131 132 128 1992 5 173 129 1986 2 12 130 1986 1 6 131 1988 6 20 132 1986 8 23 Barbara Crossette, China Aid offer to Hanoi is Reported, International Herald Tribune August 1986 : 71. 136
1975-1991 1986 500 133 1987 5 16 6 6 10 13 1987 12 1988 1 2 17 134 3 14 6 25 604 605 505 43 8 47 604 28 604 605 505 135 77 9 136 3 15 S/19625 A/43/218 16 S/19634 A/43/2213 17 23 3 24 137 1994 1986-1991 1979 133 1986 1 6 134 1997 11 238-239 135 1988 4 1 136 2000 9 542 137 1997 11 239-240 137
138 1979 30 1986 rational 139 bound rationality 140 138 25 2 1991 2 21-27 139 Frederick S.Pearson J. Martin Rochester Introduction to Internation Relations 2001 9 163 140 Joshua S. Goldstein International Relations 2003 7 142 138
1975-1991 1949 1956 4 141 1957 11 142 143 1958 144 1979 12 11 3 11 3 145 146 147 2000 1980 1 148 141 5 1970 275 142 1983 650 143 1987 4 144 1979 9 2-131 145 1990 1 5 146 1984 10 1 147 1985 9 24 148 1990 5 5 139
149 1979 3 150 1982 5 5 151 152 14 1985 1990 153 70 12 154 1982 1989 149 1988 1 8 150 1975-1982 1993 150-151 151 1982 12 5 152 1986 6 17 153 25 12 1999 12 89-93 154 1975-1982 1993 57 140
1975-1991 20 2 30 1954 1960 155 156 1975 4 30 7 2 The Socialist Republic of Vietnam, SRV 157 12 1995 20 1976-1980 0.2% 1.9% 0.6% 2% 158 1979 9 4 New Economic Policy,NEP 159 160 1981 155 P. J. Honey Communism in North Vietnam 1966 5 80 156 T. Louise Brown, War and Aftermath in Vietnam New York:Routledge, 1991, 29-31. 157 Le Thanh Nghiep, Agricultural Deveiopment in Vietnam, in Vietnam s Dilemmas and option, eds. Mya Than & J. L. H. Tan Singpore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 1993, 145-146. 158 85 1996 1 56-61 159 106 1992 12 52 160 Keiichiro Oizumi, Development in Vietnam Companies: Organizational Change Under Economic 141
1984 7 5 6 161 162 1986 12 Dô ö 163 164 1989 165 166 167 Reform, Pacific Business and Industies, Vol. 1 1992 9. 161 1984 7 21 162 1984 1 13 163 1994 12 158. 164 Fredeick Z. Brown, The Economic Development of Vietnam, Lao, and Cambodia, Journal of Northeast Asian Studies Winter 1993, 4-6. 165 1997 12 43-46 166 1991 5 74 167 1994 1994 5 29-31 142
1975-1991 168 169 170 1979 30 1979 1991 1975-1979 168 169 1982 12 1982 9 8 170 99 1999 9 58-63 143
1975 4 1965 1975 Russett, Bruce Starr, Harvey 171 1979 50 60 180 K. J. Holsti 171 Russett, Bruce Starr, Harvey International Relations the menu for choice 1995 364 144
1975-1991 172 173 1975 1975 4 30 1978 12 25 Robert O. Keohane Joseph S. Nye 174 175 50 60 70 176 172 1990.9 1990 9 17-25 173 Russett, Bruce Starr, Harvey International Relations the menu for choice 1995 367 174 Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye, 2ed., Power and Interdependence Boston: Little, Brown., 1989, 11. 175 2001 11 180 176 1990.9 1990 9 17-25 145
177 Oran Young 178 179 180 181 53 16 12 4 80 1989 177 1981 12 604 178 Russett, Bruce Starr, Harvey International Relations the menu for choice 1995 364 179 86 4 168 180 Jon James Alexiou,The Foreign Policy of the People s Republic of China Towards the Socialist Republic of Vietnam,1975-1979, Coral Gables: University of Mia, 1982, 4-5. 181 1990.9 1990 9 17-25 146
1975-1991 1989 5~3 1975-1991 4 1989 80 1978 147
5~4 1975-1991 90 1991 148