25 1
25 1
4 www.shell.com/scenarios? 6 225 Peter Grundy 1 8 2 12 (Scramble) 3 24 (Blueprints) 4 4 28 3
S E C U R I T Y CARBON RESOURCES S ENERGY TECHNOLOGY 4
? There Are No Ideal Answers 29 TINAThere Is No Alternative 9 TINA 25 9/11 TINA TINA TANIAThere Are No Ideal Answers 5 Jeremy B. Bentham 6 7
1 19525 4% 1: 1 Year 195 195 1975 1975 2 1 1 billion people OECD Non OECD 225 2: 25 215 4 GJ per capita (primary energy) 3: 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 GDP PPP per capita (PPP, 2 ' USD) USA 15 Europe EU 15 Japan South Korea China India 197-25 144 45 8 9
1 SCRAMBLE BLUEPRINTS 1
2 55ppmv 13
2.1 24 25 14 15
2.2 2225 252.5 p y 6 4 2 25 24 23 22 21 2 25 24 23 22 21 2 1 8 6 4 2 (EJ) 16 17
25 15% 2.3 1 5 22 2 21 22 23 24 25 EJ per year 2 15 1 5 Electricity Biofuels Gaseous hydrocarbon fuels Liquid fuels fossil-derived 2 225 25 18 19
2.4 21 22 2.5 2 21
235 3% 2.6 235 23 215 25 tonne CO 2 per capita per year 15 1 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Population (billion) Russia North America Asia & Oceania - Developed China Europe Middle East & N Africa India Latin America Asia & Oceania - Developing Sub-Saharan Africa (CO 2 ) 28 ppmv38ppmv 22 23
3 25
3.1 212 21 26 27
3.2 22 27 212 22 25 GJ per capita (primary energy) 4 3 2 1 4 4 8 8 12 12 GDP (PPP, 2 ) GDP per capita (PPP, ' 2 USD) USA China Japan Russia 15 India Europe EU 15 28 29
3.3 35 35 3 3 25 2 15 1 5 2 Passenger distance travelled (world), = 1index 2 = 1 Electric transport Liquid fuels 2 225 25 3 31
3.4 25 9% 5% 25 15-2% C4 25 6% EJ per year 2 15 1 5 2 21 22 23 24 25 Other Renewables Wind Solar + Biomass + Waste Hydroelectricity Nuclear Coal Gas Oil (CCS) CCS CCS CCS22 CCS 6 25 CCS 32 33
CCS 6 EJ per year 4 2 Non-energy Use Residential Transport Services Agriculture & Other Industry Heavy industry 2 225 25 EJ per year 1 8 Other Renewables 6 Biomass 4 2 Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 2 21 22 23 24 25 34 35
45 ppm 45ppm 3.5 5 1 Gt CO 2 per year 212 4 3 2 1 2 2 21 21 22 23 24 24 25 25 Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East & N Africa Latin America Asia & Oceania - Developin Asia & Oceania - Develope North America Europe 25533% (GHGs) (GHGs) 22 45 ppm 2 215 25 36 37
215 1 2 3 215-23 4? 23-255 2/3 1/5 CCS 5% GDP 3% 215 22 23? 24 9 25 13% 255 3% 38 39
IT 4 4 41
! 5 Jeremy B. Bentham 19 21 Apeldoorn 27 6 There Are No Ideal Answers 42 43
mt = ppmv = mbd = boe = kwh = CCS = CO 2 = Gt = 1 26 26 MJ = = 1 6 joule GJ = = 1 9 joule EJ = = 1 18 joule 1 boe = 5.63 * 1 mbd = 2.5 1 = 34 7 * 1 = 25 GJ* 1 kwh = 3.6 * 44 45
2 21 22 23 24 25 147 176 186 179 16 141 88 11 133 134 124 18 97 144 199 21 246 263 28 31 34 36 38 43 44 48 59 92 16 131 2 26 62 94 2 9 18 27 36 13 19 28 38 51 65 417 531 65 734 815 88 2 21 22 23 24 25 147 177 191 192 187 157 88 19 139 143 135 122 97 137 172 186 22 28 28 3 3 34 41 5 44 5 52 59 54 57 1 7 22 42 74 1 9 17 28 39 13 18 29 4 5 62 417 524 628 692 738 769 46
(a) (b) (c)(d) (e)(f) (g) (h) (i) (j) (k) (l) (m) 27 12 31 2-F www.shell.com/investor www.sec.gov 28 3 18 Carel van Bylandtlaan 16 2596 HR The Hague P.O. Box 162 251 AN VMS The Hague H7133, 28. 2nd edition. 48