115 IISS The Military Balance 90 : 1979
80 1985 1985 1997 1991 90 1 1990 100 50 2 2003 2005 1 92 6 6 13 2 2002 39 2002 7 44 116
20 6 3 4 5 1982 6 80 3 92 8 16 6 4 28 9 (2002 9 ) 47-49 5 90 90 105mm6 120 mm8 155 mm8 122 mm8 120mm6 20 Yihong Chang, China s reveals another AFV Jane s Defence Weekly, Vol.37 (April.2002), p.14. 6 1982-1988 1996 35-37 117
1988 1995 1996 80 1996 45 10 3-2 2010 7 1992 7 Steven W. Mosher 2001 118-120 118
1999 48,000 30-40 -30 2006 2010 6-8 ( ) 2-3 1-2 8 9 1979 10 8 92 5 21 13 9 2 44 10 Kenneth W. Allen, Glenn Krumel & Jonathan D. Pollack, China s Air Force Enter the 21Century (Santa Monica : RAND,1995), P.92. 119
11 80 1989 1991 10 27-30 6 8 90 2005 12 70 11 Ibid.,PP.122-123. 12 2 44 120
400 6000 7000 13 80 SDI MIRV 14 1985 1996 21 25 31 41 20 2005 13 Williams M. Arkin, Robert S. Norris & Joshua Handler, Taking Stock: Worldwide Nuclear Deployments 1998 ( New York: NRDC. Inc., 1998), p.14. 14 1999 164 121
30 2010 60 2020 100 15 21 31 1 2 3141 3-4 MND TMD 1995 15 M9 1996 90 91 92 15 M9 11(M11) 16 17 15 2 49 16 Greg Gerardi and Richard Jr. Fisher. China s Missile tests show muscle, Jane s Intelligence Review,Vol.3, no.3( March 1997),pp.125-129. 17 M 500-800 122
90 : 2000 18 2002 14% 2003 2005 14 232-233 18 3 ( 1993) 126 123
19 1997 20 76.9% 28.5% 17.9% 11.5% 1962 1969 1979 Samuel Huntington 21 19 92 6 22 13 20 92 7 5 13 21 7 82 124
90 80 1992 22 23 1988 1995 1996 22 2010 ( 1998) 34 23 Chen Hurng-yu. The PRC s South China Sea Policy, Issues and Studies,Vol.36,no.4 ( July/August 2000),p.119. 125
(Mark A.Stokes) 21 24 1988 300 2000 25 24 36 1 (2002 1 ) 123 25 1996 3-10 126
26 2000 20 27 2010 Interest area 28 26 92 7 27 13 2020 92 27 36 10 (2002 10 ) 77 28 21 34 6 (2000 6 ) 66 127
Robert Gilpin (hegemonic war) 29 (David Shambaugh) 21 30 1949 50 31 29 41 5 (1998 5 ) 19 30 David Shambaugh, China s Military Views the World, International Security, Vol.24,no.3, Winter 1999/2000,p.52. 31 2010 ( 1998) 55 128
1962 32 90 32 1996 42 129
093 2002 1991 Tomahawk 33 33 28 2 (2002 2 ) 67-68 130
90 M 96 450 2005 600 M 34 M 1992 2000 A ( ) B( ) A ( ) B( ) C A ( ) B( ) 2000 ( 6-1) 2004 35 M 34 92 7 5 13 35 92 8 1 18 36 6 (2002 6 ) 69-70 131
6-1: ( ) ( ) ( ( ( ) ) ) HN-1A 600 300-400 0.70 40-150 20 1992 GPS HN-1B 650 300-400 0.70 40-150 20 1992 GPS HN-2A GPS 1500 500 0.70 40-150 20 1997 INS HN-2B GPS 2000 500 0.70 40-150 20 1997 INS HN-2C GPS 1400 500 0.70 40-150 20 1997 HN-3A INS GPS 2000-1800 0.90 10-20 - 1998 INS 3000 HN-3B GPS 2000-1800 0.90 10-20 - 1998 INS 3000 HN-2000 - GPS 4000 - - - INS : ( : 2002) 262 5-3 GPS(Global Positioning Satellite) INS(Intermediate Navigation Satellite) 132
(Asymmetric Warfare) 36 1998 37 91 (Asymmetric Abilities) 2003 42 36 The Security Situation in the Taiwan Strait U.S. D.O.D., Report to Congress Pursuant to the FY99 Appropriations Bill, 1999,p.3. 37 1998 198-213 133
38 90 25 39 92 2008 2008 40 38 2003 10 33 39 92 9 2 13 40 92 8 30 4 134
1996 41 42 43 41 Kurt M. Campbell and Derek J. Mitchell, Crisis in the Taiwan Strait, Foreign Affairs, Vol.80, no.4. July-August 2001,p.18. 42 44 2 (2001 2 ) 67 43 92 6 27 4 135
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