T_ReportAbstract T_FSAndVSAbstract 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 224.2 392.9 356.0 439.1 699.7 Growth(%) 98.2% 75.3% -9.4% 23.3% 59.3% 35.7 41.6 38.8 49.8 74.6 Growth(%) 240.5% 16.4% -6.6% 28.3% 49.7% (%) 26.8% 21.4% 22.5% 22.8% 22.1% (%) 15.9% 10.6% 10.9% 11.3% 10.7% () 0.46 0.53 0.50 0.64 0.96 () 1.09 1.63 2.20 5.76 6.39 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - (%) 42.1% 32.9% 22.7% 11.1% 15.0% ROIC(%) 36.5% 38.4% 23.4% 25.3% 26.0% EV/EBITDA - - - - - T_PricingInfo 13.50 15.00 17.50 19.50 2010-01-20 T_IPOInfo 5,833 1,950 390 1,560 2010-01-25 T_ShareInfo T_Analyst 61.56% 12.73% 7.41% 5.83% 4.96% 2.92% 1.46% 1.46%.91%.26% 021-68765906 renln@essence.com.cn 021-68765859 zhaozc@essence.com.cn 1
1. 1.1. 1.2. 1 2
2. 2.1. 3
2.2. 3. 3.1. 4
3.2. 3.3. 3.3.1. 5
3.3.2. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 5.44% 5.05% 4.04% 6.59% 23.84% 21.31% 13.16% 11.14% 61.20% 64.91% 74.91% 72.68% 2006 2007 2008 20091-6 6
1.02 1.05 0.99 1.03 0.95 0.91 1.06 1.09 7
4. 4.1. 8
4.2. 9
5. 6. 7. 10
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T_FSAndVS 2010-1-19 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 224.2 392.9 356.0 439.1 699.7 164.2 308.7 275.8 339.1 545.0 98.2% 75.3% -9.4% 23.3% 59.3% 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.9 191.0% 21.0% -0.2% 28.9% 50.5% 12.9 21.1 18.2 23.3 37.1 240.5% 16.4% -6.6% 28.3% 49.7% 5.2 9.9 11.4 14.1 24.5 EBITDA 153.8% 27.8% 0.8% 30.2% 48.9% 3.8 6.5 3.8 3.7 3.6 EBIT 165.3% 25.5% -5.4% 26.4% 47.4% 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.9 NOPLAT 166.8% 72.2% -12.5% 26.4% 47.4% - - - - - 63.6% 43.8% 16.8% 43.4% 58.5% - - - - - 204.0% 49.0% 35.4% 162.0% 10.8% 37.0 44.8 44.7 57.6 86.7 16.3 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 26.8% 21.4% 22.5% 22.8% 22.1% 53.3 45.2 45.7 58.6 87.7 16.5% 11.4% 12.6% 13.1% 12.4% 17.6 3.7 6.9 8.8 13.2 15.9% 10.6% 10.9% 11.3% 10.7% 35.7 41.6 38.8 49.8 74.6 EBITDA/ 19.1% 13.9% 15.5% 16.4% 15.3% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E EBIT/ 18.2% 13.0% 13.6% 14.0% 12.9% 39.9 59.1 108.2 328.3 229.4 - - - - - 44 38 53 58 57 55.7 91.1 89.3 109.1 173.9 102 91 130 128 117 2.5 3.7 3.3 4.1 6.6 193 166 237 314 261 16.8 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 76 66 90 80 72 38.0 39.3 40.3 49.6 79.7 52 35 41 38 34 0.1 0.0-0.0-0.0 0.0 249 212 300 391 340 - - - - - 159 137 193 205 196 - - - - - - - - - - ROE 42.1% 32.9% 22.7% 11.1% 15.0% - - - - - ROA 18.4% 15.5% 11.9% 7.9% 10.8% 33.9 48.8 55.3 86.2 134.5 ROIC 36.5% 38.4% 23.4% 25.3% 26.0% 0.9 0.7 3.1 27.3 42.9 5.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 5.7% 5.4% 5.1% 5.3% 5.3% 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3% 2.5% 3.2% 3.2% 3.5% 193.8 268.6 325.1 630.1 692.4 1.7% 1.6% 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% 53.0 70.8 70.5 69.3 68.6 / 9.8% 9.5% 9.4% 9.3% 9.3% 20.8 24.1 12.5 14.6 23.4 3.4 14.0 7.6 9.3 14.9 56.2% 52.9% 47.3% 28.8% 28.2% 25.0 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 128.3% 112.4% 89.8% 40.4% 39.3% 6.6 6.6 36.6 61.6 61.6 1.50 1.55 2.20 4.24 3.79 0.1 - - - - 1.13 1.26 1.85 3.81 3.18 108.9 142.1 153.8 181.5 195.3 10.65 7.94 12.79 16.74 25.23 - - - - - 58.3 58.3 77.8 77.8 77.8 DPS() - - 0.15 0.19 0.29 26.6 68.2 93.4 370.8 419.2 0.0% 0.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 84.9 126.5 171.2 448.6 497.1 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 35.7 41.6 38.8 49.8 74.6 EPS() 0.46 0.53 0.50 0.64 0.96 2.1 3.7 6.7 10.5 16.7 BVPS() 1.09 1.63 2.20 5.76 6.39 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.9 PE(X) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - PB(X) - - - - - 2.4 2.9 5.6 3.8 3.7 P/FCF - - - - - - - - - - P/S - - - - - - - - - - EV/EBITDA - - - - - -1.7-39.5-17.7-26.3-83.7 CAGR(%) 11.7% 21.5% -208.4% -193.7% -177.6% 23.5 21.5 32.8 38.0 12.0 PEG - - - - - -17.3-17.2-15.0-65.0-80.0 ROIC/WACC 7.6 8.0 4.8 5.2 5.4 27.1 1.7 33.8 250.2-26.6 REP - - - - - Wind.NET 12
T_AuthorInfo 6 300 15% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300-5% 5% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300 15% A 300 B 300 T_Sales 021-67865293 zhuxian@essence.com.cn 021-68765237 lingjie@essence.com.cn 021-68766067 liangtao@essences.com.cn 021-68763872 ligr@essence.com.cn 021-68765206 nanfang@essence.com.cn 021-68763879 zhangqin@essence.com.cn 010-66581676 zhourong@essence.com.cn 010-66581668 mazn@essence.com.cn 010-66581689 lixin@essence.com.cn 0755-82558268 panlin@essence.com.cn 0755-82558089 zhangqp@essence.com.cn 0755-82558087 wangyy3@essence.com.cn 0755-82558084 lijin@essence.com.cn : 518026 : 200122 : 100034 13