China s Political Transition in 2012: Three Possible Scenarios Dr. Bo Zhiyue Senior Research Fellow East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore
Content Institutionalization Democratization Factionalization
Institutionalization The Hu Jintao Model Deng Xiaoping s criteria Hu Jintao s succession Xi Jinping s Succession Grooming Period Succession
Democratization Intra-Party democracy Direct election of General Secretary by all Party members Direct election of General Secretary by all Party deputies Direct election of General Secretary by all Central Committee members
Factionalization Princelings Xi Jinping Princelings in the Politburo Princeling Generals CCYL Group Li Keqiang Group cohesion Large numbers
Table 1 Members of the Shanghai Gang in the Seventeenth Central Committee (October 2007) Name Birth Home CC Membership Rank Work Place Index Cao Jianming 1955 Jiangsu Full n/a Supreme Court 2 Chen Zhili (f.) 1942 Fujian Full n/a State Council 2 Han Zheng 1954 Zhejiang Full n/a Shanghai 2 Hua Jianmin 1940 Jiangsu Full n/a State Council 2 Meng Jianzhu 1947 Jiangsu Full n/a Jiangxi 2 Wang Huning 1955 Shandong Full n/a Policy 3 Wu Bangguo 1941 Anhui Full n/a Politburo 5 Xu Guangchun 1944 Zhejiang Full n/a Henan 2 Yin Yicui (f.) 1955 Zhejiang Alternate 164 Shanghai 1 Total 21
Table 2 Qinghua Graduates in the 17th Central Committee Name Home Birth Major Department Entry Party Graduation Index Chen Yuan Shanghai 1945 automatic control automatic control 1964 1975 1970 1 Hu Jintao Anhui 1942 hydropower Water Conservancy 1959 1964 1965 9 Hua Jianmin Jiangsu 1940 gas turbine power 1957 1961 1963 2 Liu Yandong (f.) Jiangsu 1945 chemical engineering chemical engineering 1964 1964 1970 4 Lou Jiwei Beijing 1950 Computer Science Computer Science 1978 1973 1982 1 Tian Chengping Hebei 1945 civil architecture civil architecture 1962 1964 1968 2 Wu Bangguo Anhui 1941 electron tube radio electronics 1960 1964 1967 5 Xi Jinping Shaanxi 1953 chemical engineering chemical engineering 1974 1974 1979 6 Zhou Ji Shanghai 1946Machinery ManufacturinPrecision Instruments 1964 1970 2 Zhou Xiaochuan Jiangsu 1948onomic System EngineerEconomic Management 1986 1985 2 Total. 34
Table 3 Princelings in the Seventeenth Central Committee (October 2007) Name Birth Home CC Membership Rank Relative Index Politburo Members Xi Jinping Shaanxi 1953 Full n/a Xi Zhongxun 6 Li Yuanchao Jiangsu 1950 Full n/a Li Gancheng 5 Wang Qishan Shanxi 1948 Full n/a Yao Yilin 4 Bo Xilai Shanxi 1949 Full n/a Bo Yibo 4 Liu Yandong (f.) Jiangsu 1945 Full n/a Liu Ruilong 4 Yu Zhengsheng Zhejiang 1945 Full n/a Huang Jing 4 Zhang Dejiang Liaoning 1946 Full n/a Zhang Zhiyi 4 Central and Provincial Leaders Deng Nan (f.) Sichuan 1945 Full n/a Deng Xiaoping 2 Li Jianguo Shandong 1946 Full n/a Li Yunchuan 2 Liao Hui Guangdong 1942 Full n/a Liao Chengzhi 2 Liu Jing Shanxi 1944 Full n/a Han Jun 2 Zhou Xiaochuan Jiangsu 1948 Full n/a Zhou Jiannan 2 Chen Yuan Shanghai 1945 Alternate 141 Chen Yun 1 Diplomats Dai Bingguo (Tujia) Guizhou 1941 Full n/a Huang Zhen 2 Wang Yi Beijing 1953 Full n/a Qian Jiadong 2 Wang Guangya Jiangsu 1950 Alternate 9 Chen Yi 1 Military Leaders Wu Shengli Hebei 1945 Full n/a Wu Xian 3 Peng Xiaofeng Henan 1945 Full n/a Peng Xuefeng 2 Ma Xiaotian Henan 1949 Full n/a Ma Zaiyao 2 Liu Xiaojiang Jiangxi 1949 Full n/a Hu Yaobang 2 Liu Yuan Hunan 1951 Full n/a Liu Shaoqi 2 Zhang Haiyang Hunan 1949 Full n/a Zhang Zhen 2 Zhang Youxia Shaanxi 1950 Full n/a Zhang Zongxun 2 Ding Yiping Hunan 1951 Alternate 137 Ding Qiusheng 1 Ai Husheng Henan 1951 Alternate 45 Ai Fulin 1 Total 64
Table 4 CCYL Cadres in the 17th Central Committee (October 2007) Name Home Birth CC Membership Work Unit Title Index Politburo Hu Jintao Anhui 1942 Full Politburo General Secretary 9 Li Keqiang Anhui 1955 Full State Council Vice Premier 5 Liu Yunshan Inner Mongolia 1947 Full Propaganda Director 5 Li Yuanchao Jiangsu 1950 Full Central Organization Director 5 Wang Zhaoguo Hebei 1941 Full National People's Congress Vice Chair 4 Wang Lequan Shandong 1944 Full Xinjiang Party Secretary 4 Liu Yandong (f.) Jiangsu 1945 Full State Council State Councilor 4 Wang Yang Anhui 1955 Full Guangdong Party Secretary 4 Central Party Institutions Du Qinglin Jilin 1946 Full United Front Director 2 Ling Jihua Shanxi 1957 Full General Office Director 3 Shen Yueyue (f.) Zhejiang 1957 Full Central Organization Deputy Director 2 Central Government Institutions Cai Wu Gansu 1949 Full Ministry of Culture Minister 2 Liu Peng Chongqing 1951 Full Sports Director 2 Wu Aiying (f.) Shandong 1951 Full Justice Minister 2 Yang Chuantang Shandong 1954 Full Ethnic Affairs Party Secretary 2 Li Haifeng (f.) Hebei 1949 Full Overseas Office Director 2 Li Xueju Beijing 1945 Full Civil Affairs Minister 2 Liu Binjie Shaanxi 1948 Full Media Director 2 Li Changjiang Heilongjiang 1944 Full Quality Director 2 Quan Zhezhu (Korean) Jilin 1952 Alternate Industry and Commerce Party Secretary 1 Ye Xiaowen Guizhou 1950 Alternate Religious Affairs Director 1 Qian Yunlu Hubei 1944 Full CPPCC Vice Chairman 2 Bai Chunli (Manchu) Liaoning 1953 Alternate CAS Vice President 1 Yang Chonghui Sichuan 1945 Full CPPCC Dep. Sec. General 2 Yang Jing (Mongolian) Inner Mongolia 1953 Full Ethnic Affairs Minister 2
Military Li Jinai Shandong 1942 Full General Political Department Director 3 Liu Zhenlai (Hui) Beijing 1949 Alternate Beijing Military Region Air Pol Com. 1 Provincial Units Ji Bingxuan Henan 1952 Full Heilongjiang Party Secretary 2 Liu Qibao Anhui 1953 Full Sichuan Party Secretary 2 Qiang Wei Jiangsu 1953 Full Qinghai Party Secretary 2 Zhang Baoshun Hebei 1950 Full Shanxi Party Secretary 2 Zhang Qingli Shandong 1951 Full Tibet Party Secretary 2 Zhou Qiang Hubei 1960 Full Hunan Governor 2 Hu Chunhua Hubei 1963 Full Hebei Governor 2 Han Zheng Zhejiang 1954 Full Shanghai Mayor 2 Meng Xuenong Shandong 1949 Full Shanxi Governor 2 Huang Huahua Guangdong 1946 Full Guangdong Governor 2 Li Chengyu (Hui) Shaanxi 1946 Full Henan 2 Jiang Daming Shandong 1953 Full Shandong Governor 2 Luo Baoming Tianjin 1952 Full Hainan Governor 2 Song Xiuyan (f.) Tianjin 1955 Full Qinghai Governor 2 Huang Xiaojing Fujian 1946 Full Fujian Governor 2 Yuan Chunqing Hunan 1952 Full Shaanxi Governor 2 Qin Guangrong Hunan 1950 Full Yunnan Governor 2 Han Changfu 1954 Full Jilin Governor 2 Li Zhanshu Hebei 1950 Alternate Heilongjiang Governor 1 Nur Bekri (Uygur) Xinjiang 1961 Alternate Xinjiang Chairman 1 Chen Zhenggao Liaoning 1952 Alternate Liaoning Governor 1 Wang Sanyun Shandong 1952 Alternate Fujian Deputy Secretary 1 Xia Baolong Tianjin 1952 Alternate Zhejiang Deputy Secretary 1 Liu Yupu Shandong 1949 Alternate Guangdong Deputy Secretary 1 Zhang Xuan (f.) Hebei 1958 Alternate Chongqing Deputy Secretary 1 Wang Rulin Henan 1953 Alternate Jilin Deputy Secretary 1 Xing Yuanmin Shandong 1949 Alternate Tianjin Deputy Secretary 1 Yang Gang Hebei 1953 Alternate Xinjiang Deputy Secretary 1 Zhang Yijiong Shanghai 1955 Alternate Tibet Deputy Secretary 1 Liu Wei Shandong 1958 Alternate Shandong Deputy Secretary 1 Luo Lin Liaoning 1955 Alternate Liaoning Deputy Secretary 1 Mei Kebao Hunan 1957 Alternate Hunan Deputy Secretary 1
Bayanqolu (Mongolian ) Inner Mongolia 1955 Alternate Zhejiang Standing Member 1 Shi Lianxi (f.) Hebei 1952 Alternate Tianjin Standing Member 1 Li Yumei (f.) Shandong 1956 Alternate Shandong Standing Member 1 Shen Weichen Shanxi 1956 Alternate Shanxi Standing Member 1 Sun Jinlong Hubei 1962 Alternate Anhui Standing Member 1 Tang Tao Hubei 1963 Alternate Hubei Standing Member 1 Ulagan (f. Mongolian) Inner Mongolia 1962 Alternate Inner Mongolia Standing Member 1 Wu Xianguo Hebei 1956 Alternate Hebei Standing Member 1 Zhao Yong Hunan 1963 Alternate Hebei Standing Member 1 Luo Zhijun Liaoning 1951 Alternate Jiangsu Standing Member 1 Ma Biao (Zhuang) Guangxi 1954 Alternate Guangxi Standing Member 1 Zhu Xiaodan Zhejiang 1953 Alternate Guangdong Standing Member 1 Song Airong (f.) Henan 1959 Alternate Xinjiang Standing Member 1 Li Ke (Zhuang) Guangxi 1956 Alternate Henan Vice Governor 1 Fu Zhifang Henan 1956 Alternate Hebei Vice Governor 1 Ji Lin Shanghai 1962 Alternate Beijing Vice Governor 1 Liu Hui (f. Hui) Tianjin 1959 Alternate Ningxia Vice Governor 1 Ren Yaping Inner Mongolia 1952 Alternate Inner Mongolia Vice Governor 1 Jin Zhenji (Korean) Jilin 1959 Alternate Jilin Vice Governor 1 Shen Suli (f.) Jiangsu 1958 Alternate Anhui City Secretary 1 Yu Yuanhui (Yao) Guangxi 1964 Alternate Guangxi City Secretary 1 Wu Jihai (Miao) Hunan 1953 Alternate Hunan City Secretary 1 Lei Chunmei (f.she) Fujian 1959 Alternate Fujian City Mayor 1 Total 149
Figure 2 Factional Balance of the CCP Central Committee (2002, 2007) 160 140 2002 2007 149 120 100 97 80 64 60 54 40 42 34 41 20 21 0 Shanghai Gang Qinghua Clique Princelings CCYL Group
Figure 3 Group Cohesion Index of Factional Groups in China (2002, 2007) 1400 2002 2007 1256 1200 1000 800 600 400 405.5 200 0 142 103.2 53.3 20 16 8 Shanghai Gang Qinghua Clique Princelings CCYL Group
Conclusion There are three possible scenarios at the 18 th Party Congress in 2012 Chinese politics has become more institutionalized It is also possible that China would introduce some measure of intra-party democracy Factional groups may coalesce into political factions, if intra-party democracy is adopted for selecting the top party leader