カテゴリー Ⅰ 日本建築学会計画系論文集第 81 巻第 728 号,2247-2257,2016 年 10 月 J. Archit. Plann., AIJ, Vol. 81 No. 728, 2247-2257, Oct., 2016 DOI http://doi.org/10.3130/aija.81.2247 一次通勤圏で高齢単身 夫婦世帯の持ち家の賃貸活用が進む可能性に関する分析 ANALYSIS OF THE POSSIBILITY TO UTILIZE ELDERLY SINGLE AND COUPLE HOUSEHOLDʼS REAL ESTATE ASSETS FOR RENTAL IN SUBURBAN AREAS 五十石俊祐 * **, 石井儀光 Shunsuke ISOISHI and Norimitsu ISHII The purpose of this study is to clarify the possibility that tenants are found and income of rent takes the economic benefit to the elderly households living in suburban areas if they make use of their real estate assets. As a result of analysis, there is enough possibility that tenants are found is enough, and utilizing real estate assets is likely to bring economic benefits to the elderly households. However, the number of dwellings that elderly people can borrow is too less. Furthermore, these dwellings tend to be narrow. These are cited as obstacles to promoting real estate assets utilization. Keywords : Elderly household, Relocation, Real estate assets, Suburban area, Remodeling 1. H26 59,610 80.9% H26 1 2,209 30.9 83.3% 3 1 4 5 JTI 2 JTI 6 7 JTI 6 3 4 7 JTI 7 8 * ** 筑波大学大学院システム情報工学研究科大学院生 修士 ( 社会工学 ) 国立研究開発法人建築研究所住宅 都市研究グループ主任研究員 博士 ( 都市 地域計画 ) Grad. Stud., Major in Policy & Planning Science, Univ. of Tsukuba, M. Social Eng. Senior Research Engineer, Dept. of Housing and Urban Planning, Building Research Institute, Ph.D. 2247
7 100 5 2 101112 813 1 11 DID 1 15 10% 10% 10% 10% 6 DID 1314 H22 Z 0.5 H22 1,901 H22.10.1 372 1,044 1 82.1% Z 152 152 SUUMO 15 athome 16 HOME S 17 3 2015 10 11 7 3 128 28,607 1 24 10 45 28,607 1 8 1 19 23,363 10km 19 9 ln( y) 0.590029ln( x1 ) 0.269649ln( x2 ) 0.009914x3 0. 015409x4 0.051259 x 5 5.813137 ( y :, x :, 1 x :, 2 x :, 3 x :, 4 x : ) 5 0.747 F 2 VIF 2 2248
4 152 100 10 21 20 ln( y) 0.207081ln( x6) 0.402903ln( x7 ) 0.129401ln( x8 ) 0.193924ln( x9).0.363007ln( x ) 0.619924x 13.583953 0 10 11 ( y :, x :, 6 x :, 7 x :, 8 x :, 9 x :, 10 x :) 11 2249
0.588 F 3VIF 3 22 6m H22 47 2 4 100,000 47 50,000 4,5 6,7 4,6 5,7H25 68.8% 93.4% 22 23 24 2015 11 19 H25 10 85 55.6% 67 2250
JTI 8090% 25 8 2.8% 0 55.6% 75%JTI 80%84.3% JTI 60% 97.4% JTI 9 26 5 10 JTI 3 3 31 75 9 12 18 21 75 JTI 3 2 3 JTI 86.6 20 20 11 JTI 26 27 2251
12 21 2829 3 30 DB 31 2015 11 14 12 65 H26 H21 13 3.6%3 33 DB 31 67 231 231 11 12 13 2252
6 13.1 12 DB 31 78 263 263 14 15 16 20.9% 15 2 17 4 71.2% 18 2253
75 12 3 4 3 3 149 6JTI 3 5 148 JTI 64.3% 19 90% 1 11 14 20 2 120 140 75% 90 21 3435 55.6 2254
JTI 80% 84.3% 15.7% 60% 12 18 21 75 31 75 1JTI 2 20 2 20 JTI 12 21 4 : 26, 2015 : 22, 2010.3 2015.9.23 URL: http://www8.cao.go.jp/kourei/ishiki/h22/sougou/zentai/ :, 2013.7 ( 2015.9.23) URL: http://www.asahi-kasei.co.jp/hebel/souzokuzei/report.html/ : --, JRI news release, No.2007-3, 2008.3 : :, 833, pp.221-233, 2012.8 :, 2011.3,, : - 23 -,, 569, pp.169-176,2003.7,, :,, 77 5, pp.421-428,1995.9 :, 2011.3, : 19552000,, 586, pp.135-140, 2004.12, :,, No7, pp.1-15, 2002 : 1 21, 2008 2015.9.23 URL:http://www.soumu.go.jp/main_sosiki/kenkyu/teizyu/pdf/080317 _1_si2.pdf :,, 679, pp.2143-2148, 2012.9 :, 2010.3 2015.9.23 URL: http://www.gapp.ei-archive.soumu.go.jp/heiseinogapp.ei.pdf : SUUMO 2015.11.18 URL: http://suumo.jp/chintai/ : athome 2015.11.18 URL: http://www.athome.co.jp/chintai/ : HOME S 2015.11.18 URL: http://www.homes.co.jp/chintai/ : Gomez 2015.11.18 URL: http://www.gomez.co.jp/ranking/realestate_chintai/ : H27 2015.11.19 URL: http://www.land.mlit.go.jp/landprice/,,, : 23, GIS 2255
, Vol.17, No.1, pp.13-24, 2009.6 : 27, 2015.5 2015.11.19 URL: http://www.lic.or.jp/research/pdf/kouji/k2015.pdf : NAVI 2015.11.19 URL http://www.its-mo.com/ : 2015.11.16, 2015.11 : H27, 2015.6 : JTI 2015.12.7 URLhttp://www.jt-i.jp/ :, SUUMO, 2010.7.28 2015.12.7 URLhttp://suumo.jp/edit/kyotsu/knowhow/tw_chukoreform/100728/ :, 2010.9 2015.12.7 URLhttp://www.j-reform.com/publish/pdf_h22/taishin_web.pdf,,,,,,,,,,,, :, 61(11), pp.671-678, 2014.11,, : - -,, 618, pp.65-72, 2007.8 : - -,, 2014.8 : DB 2015.11.22 URL http://kaigodb.com/ : 2015.11.22 URL http://www.kaigokensaku.jp/ : :,, 1998,, :,, 709, pp.475-483, 2015.3 :, 2014 :, 2010 :, 2008 :, 2009 2 60 2,062 49.5% 2 3 312 20% JTI 2015 7 780 JTI 6 JTI 6 H25 9 3 5 100 100 10% 10 5 30% 5 1 20% 30% 5 2 10% 20% 5 3 5% 10% 5 4 18 SUUMO 15 athome 16 HOME S 17 3 2015 11 SUUMO:4,323,615,athome:1,286,195, HOME S:5,041,375 3 1 10 91.9%26,307 1km 99.9%28,588 10km 10km 10km 10km 19 20km 20 23,363 H22 14 100 H22 JTI 20 JTI DB 31 32 H21 H21H26 H21 H26 2256
ANALYSIS OF THE POSSIBILITY TO UTILIZE ELDERLY SINGLE AND COUPLE HOUSEHOLDʼS REAL ESTATE ASSETS FOR RENTAL IN SUBURBAN AREAS Shunsuke ISOISHI * and Norimitsu ISHII ** * Grad. Stud., Major in Policy & Planning Science, Univ. of Tsukuba, M. Social Eng. ** Senior Research Engineer, Dept. of Housing and Urban Planning, Building Research Institute, Ph.D. About 80 percent of elderly households have no income except the pension. According to statistics, these households require an additional 60,000 yen to live each month. For this reason, they suffer the risk of using up their savings while they are alive. Therefore, we consider that it might be effective for elderly households to have another source of income. On the other hand, more than 80% elderly households own real estate assets. Promoting real estate assets utilization is considered effective as a method for improving the household budget of elderly households, because elderly people tend to consider that they want to inherit the assets to child households. Already, it has been found that it is difficult to promote real estate assets utilization of elderly households in metropolis. If the elderly rent his or her real estate assets in metropolis, the rent tend to be too high for young households. But, this problem might not occur in suburban areas because land prices in suburban areas tend to be lower than that of commutable areas. Also, there are many workers who live in rented houses in commutable ranges of suburban areas. Thus, there is no need to establish new work places and employment opp.ortunities to find tenants. The purpose of this study is to clarify the possibility that tenants are found and income of rent takes the economic benefit to the elderly households living in suburban areas if they make use of their real estate assets. So, we presumed the rent function from the data of rental housing located in the suburban areas and estimated the rent level of housing stocks with average specs elderly households are living in. As a result, in half of the suburban areas of large cities, the elderly household s real estate assets were estimated to be more than 100,000 yen per month. In suburban areas of small cities, their real estate assets are expected to produce more than 50,000 yen per month of rental income. Then, we compared these results and the rent level that households living in rented house in commutable areas are paying. As a result, in almost all of the suburban area, the number of households living in rented houses who are expected to improve their household budgets by moving to elderly household s residences was more than the number of elderly households living in suburban areas. But, if tenants contract residences which require refurbishment, they have to continue to borrow these housing stocks for about 12 to 21 years in order to obtain the benefit. Finally, we compared the levels of rent income that elderly households gain at the time of utilizing their real estate assets and the levels of living expenses that elderly households pay when they relocate. As a result, in almost all of the suburban areas, there are dwellings which improve their household budgets when they relocate. From the above analysis, there is enough possibility that lenders are found. Furthermore, utilizing real estate assets is likely to bring economic benefits to the elderly households. On the other hand, according to statistics, the number of dwellings that elderly people can borrow tend to be less than that of elderly households in suburban areas. In addition, since these dwellings tend to be narrow, elderly households have to consider how to handle their furniture in the time of relocation. These are cited as obstacles to promoting real estate assets utilization. (2016 年 1 月 10 日原稿受理,2016 年 6 月 20 日採用決定 ) 2257