2008IT /15
Agenda 2008 & 2008
2008 &
US$B PC/系統潮 網路潮/節能潮 3C潮 企業市場消費者 成熟市場消費者 成熟+新興市場消費者 代 時 代 C 時 P C n P NNoon 1,000 PPCC時 時代 代 G-phone 後PC時代 後PC時代 HDTV IPTV Web NB $500B 100 $100B 10 2003 Source 拓墣產業研究所 2008 IP-Camera 亞東證券投資顧問 蕭雅慧 於 /19 上午 09:38:03 下載. 拓墣產研 版權所有 未經授權 不得轉載 2008年迎接無縫網路&節能新世代的來臨
07 2008 2007/6 90 Sip 2007/Q3 & IC/LED Source
Panel Panel Nand Nand Flash Flash Wimax Google Wimax LED LED IC Touch Touch Panel Panel LED TD-SCDMA Battery Power Power Control IC IC Motion Motion Sensor GPS / PMP GPS Module WLAN WLAN Module LCD LCD TV TV Mobile Mobile Internet 3G/3.5G 3G/Smart phone phone Source
+5% (cost down) -10% 0 % CRT Monitor(-31%) 2008 (-5.3%) 2008 2007-10% - 2% 2 % 10% Source DRAM (29%) (33%) Smart Phone(23%) (16.7%) IC(16%) IC (8.27%) LED(16%) (9%) DSC(3.3%) NB(14.9%) MP3(5.3%) WLAN(22%) PC(0.8%) LCD TV(38%) DVD player(2.5%) MEMS(20%) Wimax GPS (11.6%) (314%) NAND Flash(10.8%) 30%
($M) 100000 50000 2008 2008 Wimax (10603)(496) 2007Wimax (2553)(170) 2007Notebook (93000)(99045) (000) Source: 2008Notebook (116000)(113860) 2007LCD TV (70313)(63000) 2008LCD TV (100217)(86700) 2007Smart Phone (132000)(33000) 2007GPS (186000)(28000) 100000 200000 2008Smart Phone (184000)(40480) 2007WLAN (280000) (3360) 2008Panel (419710) (91000) 2007Panel (365040) (70000) 2008GPS (244000)(312800) 2008WLAN (380000) (4104) 2008LED (7700) 2007LED (5700)
2008
2008 ( ) IC IC OS Single Core Intel Dual-Core Intel Celeron AMD Dual-Core ARM MIPS Embedded CPU Mutli-Core SDRAM DDR1 DDR 2 400MHz DDR2 533MHz DDR2 667MHz DDR2 800MHz DDR3 0.2um 0.18um 0.15um 0.13um 90nm 65nm 45nm Source MCU LCD driver IC RF I C Sound IC Video IC LED driver IC Power Control IC CRT LCD PDP FHD LCD FHD PDP E-paper OLED Floppy CD DVD Blue-Ray DVD HD DVD HDD Nand Flash SSD Keyboard Mouse Scanner Voice Touch Panel Motion Sensor HDD Infrared ADSL / VDSL 802.11 a/b/g 802.11n Blue tooth UWB Wimax 3G/3.5G 4G Win32 Win64 Unix Linux Win mobile Symbian Embedded i5 and OS/400 Main frame GPS DVB-T/ DMB Camera MP3 /MP4 FM Radio
2008 () ~ ~ 2008 IC 2317/ 8.27% Notebook 1138/14.9% Mobile Phone 1692/16.7% Panel 910/30% 0 10% 20% 30% 2008YoY Source LCD TV 867/37.6%
1: LED 2008 20087~10 LED 2008NB 2009 : Mobile Automotive Illuminations Large display Sign/signals Others YoY 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2006 2007(E) 2008(F) 2009(F) 2010(F) Source 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
2:Clean Tech MW Source 2008 4589MW 33%
3: IC 2008 Source
4: NAND Flash 2008 NAND Flash 10.8%ASP 53.4%
5: NB 百萬台 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 $1,219 60.7 $1,100 72.8 Source $1,065 93.0 $980 116.0 136.5 156.0 $940 $890 2005 2006 2007(E) 2008(F) 2009(F) 2010(F) NB ASP 美元 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0
6: ($M) Source
7: LCD TV 143% 117% 54% 43% 16% 15% Source
8: ($M) 2008 7 G/G 2000~3000 7 F/G 800~1000 3.5 350~450 3 300~400 2 200~300 Source 2007/10 12 10.4 ( ) 3200~4000 2000~2500
9: WiMAX 2008Wimax 4.96 2007 314% :Million Source
10: Source 225 3G3.5G (WCDMACDMA2000) YoY 178 GSM/GPRS/EDGE YoY 54 CDMA2G2.5G YoY 4 YoY 3
LED LED Solar Solar IC IC industry Nand Nand Flash Flash NB NB Panel Panel LCD LCD TV TV Touch Touch Panel Panel Wimax Wimax Mobile Mobile Phone Phone Source IC Panel Panel (8) (8) SIP MEMS Power Power IC IC LED LED IC IC Panel Panel IC IC WLAN WLAN Camera Touch Touch Panel NB NB LCD LCD TV TV
1H07 G6 2008 6G 7G 7.5G 2008 7.56 5 2H07 1H08 2H08 1H09 2H09 180K 210K 248K 20K 60K 75K 150K 10K 70K 25K 50K 100K 90K 100K Source TBD
2008 2008 15MW 5.5MW 12.5MW, 100MW(2011) 38MW, 50MW(09), 100MW(10), 150MW(11) 30MW, 50MW(2009) 25MW 40MW Source 2007/10 EPV EPV ULVAC Nano PV Applied Materials ULVAC Oerlikon Nano PV
2008 IC YoY 12%IC YoY 22%IC YoY 20% IC 17210 YoY 18.9% Source
2008 NB 23% (000) Top 5 2007Q1 6,200 4,890 2,130 1,385 1,850 16,455 2007Q2 7,400 5,120 2,350 1,270 1,570 17,710 Source: 2007Q3 8,700 6,100 3,220 1,700 2,000 21,720 2007Q4 8,550 6,350 4,000 2,500 2,800 24,200 2007(E) 30,850 22,460 11,700 6,855 8,220 80,085 2008(F) 35,000 28,000 17,000 8,900 9,700 98,600 YoY 13% 25% 45% 30% 18% 23%
LCD TV 2008 LCD TV YoY 79% Source