1
210035 025-7056780 xulin@600282.net 210035 025-7791169 98 1608 021-53594566 2
...4...5...8...9...12...13...14...14...15...16 3
35,760 70.95% 4
600282 (210035) (210035) 025-7056780 xulin@600282.net 19993 ISO90012000 2002 2001 2000 3,209,713,580.58 2,582,196,411.05 2,581,824,870.28 2,594,778,231.27 1,467,186,358.78 982,024,180.82 1,087,038,514.25 1,087,038,514.25 1,742,527,221.80 1,600,172,230.23 1,494,786,356.03 1,507,739,717.02 45.71 38.03 42.10 41.89 4,665,263,092.55 4,001,026,137.19 3,389,775,529.32 3,389,775,529.32 243,154,991.57 206,185,874.20 201,485,026.56 208,960,651.34 0.48 0.41 0.48 0.50 0.48 0.41 0.61 0.63 5
0.47 0.41 0.49 0.48 3.46 3.17 3.56 3.59 3.41 3.13 3.53 3.56 0.48 0.46 1.11 1.11 13.95 12.89 13.48 13.86 14.12 12.90 23.22 23.83 13.69 12.56 23.47 23.18 13.52 12.54 13.62 13.48 2003220 2002322 200139 www.sse.com.cn 2002 1 1999 3 8 199923 30,000 2000 9 12,000 2000 9 19 30,000 42,000 2000 2000 42,000 10 2 1.00 8,400 42,000 50,400 6
% 357,600,000 70.95 2,400,000 0.48 144,000,000 28.57 504,000,000 100.00 2 2003 3 14 [2003]26 2003 3 27 [2003]118 35,760 70.95% 3 % 1 357,600,000 70.95 2 1,300,000 0. 26 3 1,300,000 0. 26 4 760,000 0. 15 5 663,880 0. 13 6-644,351 0. 13 7 603,382 0. 12 8 600,000 0. 12 7
8 600,000 0. 12 8 600,000 0. 12 8 600,000 0. 12 4 2003 2 14 2003 17 2003 2 20 10 40% 30%20%10% 35,760 70.95% 8
2003220 2002 1 2 3 4 1 1 9
10 40% 30%20%10% 10 2003324 2 3 2
1 2 2003 6 17 6 0 0 3.81 / 5.86 / 2003 6 13 7 12 ---- 11
12 1 2 1 35,760 27.5 17
2 6 6 24 24 24 24 13
14
15
1 2 3 [2003]26 4 [2003]118 5 6 7 [2003]17 8 16
1 70.95%
2003 3 12 27.5 35,760 70.95 11 40 16.5 30 20 10 10 4 27.5 10 2003 3 21 20030478 2003 3 24 3201001014182 2
35,760 70.95 2003 3 14 200326 2003 3 27 2003 118 2003 3 19 4 1 4 2 2003 4 7 35,760 70.95 35,760 70.95 2003 4 9 2003 6 12 / % 3.81 240 0.48 5.86 14,400 28.57 613 30 20036132003712 85,298.4 17,059.68 20 2003417 68,300 3
68,238.72 12,000 A 2000 9 170 180 140 45# AB AH32AH36 ISO90012000 2005 100 4
2002 10% 915,534,410.50 876,139,171.26 4.30% 739,482,812.39 687,084,448.65 7.09% 1,918,822,381.56 1,524,477,032.22 20.55% 548,379,997.19 437,567,976.05 20.21% 1,007,602,254.78 971,388,144.79 3.59% 1 2002 2001 2000 466,526 400,103 338,978 51,186 36,984 47,170 10.97% 9.24% 13.92% 54 325 36 11,184 12,689 20,995 40,056 24,620 26,211 8.59% 6.15% 7.73% 24,315 20,619 20,149 5.21% 5.15% 5.94% 14.12% 12.90% 23.22% 17% 17.32%2001 2002 2 5
2002 2001 2000 173,670 166,575 155,220 74,448 79,424 80,463 19,492 21,893 32,657 45,768 40,795 40,839 202,364 173,973 167,751 107,205 95,698 94,904 1.89 1.82 1.77 1.44 1.37 1.33 % 45.71 38.03 42.10 % 54.29 61.97 57.90 2002 1.89 1.44 2002 45.71% 3 2002 2001 2000 () 20.44 13.30 8.43 21,172 24,485 35,683 () 9.22 8.55 7.90 45,768 40,795 41,896 2002 20.44 9.22 6
4 2002 2001 2000 24,250.71 23,379.11 46,623.77 24,315 20,619 20,149 ( ) 11,151.55 7,097.82 57,904.83 5.86 / 1 2 5.86 5.86 2000 9 19 2003 4 8 7
2000 9 19 2003 4 8 5.86 2001 3 27 9.53 / 2003 1 2 5.59 / 8
5.86 2001 3 27 11.65 / 2003 1 2 5.48 / 608 6 5.86 1% 99% 5.86 (2003 4 8 2003 6 12 ) 9
10.25 7.00 8.69 8.74 1 5.86 2003 4 8 7 16.3% 2 5.86 10 6.66 12% 3 5.86 30 6.51 10% 4 5.86 8.69 48.3 % 5 5.86 8.74 49.1 % 1 99% 5.86 2 3 2000 9 19 2003 4 8 10
11 2000 9 2003 4 6.7% 2.2%
1 30 19 63.33 17.33 2002 0.48 8.32 5.86 2 19 1.87 2002 3.46 6.47 5.86 '600231' 6.60 15,474 38,621 0.505 1.60 4.13 13.07 '000629' 6.70 29,980 102,330 0.480 4.63 1.45 13.96 '600569' 5.73 27,500 134,549 0.400 3.40 1.69 14.33 '600282' 7.00 14,400 50,400 0.480 3.46 2.02 14.58 '600001' 5.45 49,000 148,655 0.356 4.44 1.23 15.31 '000717' 9.61 24,680 55,880 0.625 6.27 1.53 15.38 '600019' 5.26 187,700 1,251,200 0.340 2.25 2.34 15.47 '600102' 7.07 20,280 92,227 0.417 4.12 1.72 16.95 '000709' 6.75 43,540 150,383 0.390 4.49 1.50 17.31 '600126' 7.28 16,575 64,534 0.420 3.39 2.15 17.33 '600307' 5.60 20,000 72,800 0.310 3.00 1.87 18.06 '000898' 3.90 75,199 296,099 0.201 2.54 1.54 19.40 '600005' 5.69 32,000 209,048 0.285 2.47 2.30 19.96 '600581' 8.19 13,000 40,943 0.390 4.05 2.02 21.00 '600010' 5.10 35,000 125,000 0.240 2.87 1.78 21.25 '000959' 6.39 35,000 231,000 0.300 2.21 2.89 21.30 '000761' 6.05 12,000 113,600 0.213 3.28, 1.84 28.40 '600894' 6.61 16,169 68,618 0.114 2.52 2.62 43.49 '600808' 3.68 60,000 645,530 0.060 1.84 2.00 61.33 12
1 V V FCF n t + t t= 0 (1 + Wacc) (1 + = P n Wacc) n FCF t t Wacc Pn V V1 V1=V / 2 Km Ke 1995 1 2003 1 10.06% Km=10% Kf 2003 01030210 13
2.80% β 2000 9 29 2003 4 8 ß 0.946 Ke K = K + K K ) * β Ke 9.6% e f ( m f Wacc Ve Vd Wacc = * Ke + * Kd (1 t) VdKd V + V V + V e d e d VeKe Wacc 8.97% Wacc WACC 8.97% 33% Ve( ) 352800 Vd 42014 Kd 5.30% β 0.946 Kf 2.80% Km 10% Ke 9.6% Ve/Ve+Vd 0.106 Vd/Ve+Vd 0.89 3 n 14
n 14.28% = 1 14.28% 2002 2002 2002 n 3.5% n=1 2003 2004 n FCF 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 n=1 n=2 n=3 n=4 n=5 n=6 n=7 5.87 6.07 6.27 6.48 6.67 6.87 7.05 4 t=n(3.5,1) 1 0.025 0.14 0.335 0.335 0.14 0.025 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 FCF 5.87 6.07 6.27 6.48 6.67 6.87 0.15 0.85 2.10 2.17 0.93 0.17 6.37 6.37 15
3.81 / 1 2 2003 007 2002 12 31 35760 136,008 2003 3 27 [2003]118 35760 3.81 2002 3.46 3.81 1997 3 24 [1997]32 16
2003 007 3.81 23 SPSS 000719 2.09 2.09 0.047 1.00 000780 3.63 3.63 0.156 1.00 000627 1.16 1.16 0.01 1.00 600530 4.6 4.58 0.196 1.00 000547 3.53 3.51 0.012 1.01 600074 2.91 2.89 0.245 1.01 000760 3.27 3.23 0.012 1.01 600275 3.03 3.023 0.055 1.00 600201 5.05 4.95 0.24 1.02 600655 3.8 3.68 0.136 1.03 000019 1.95 1.84 0.045 1.06 000732 3.4 3.18 0.008 1.07 17
600887 10 8.91 0.58 1.12 600772 3.12 2.75 0.037 1.13 600888 2.68 2.28 0.467 1.18 000502 1.47 1.15-0.082 1.28 600101 7.969 6.07 0.46 1.31 600272 4.5 3.41 0.15 1.32 000611 1.92 1.34 0.076 1.43 ST 000885 1.1 0.68-0.315 1.62 ST 600749 2.15 1-0.147 2.15 ST 000851 2.0685 0.8-0.38 2.59 ST 000635 4.03 0.84-0.759 4.80 23 1.07 3.70 3.81 3.70 1 18
2 1 35,760 27.5 17 2 1 85% 2003 5 20 [2003]16 19
20 [2003]16 1 85%-90% *ST 5% 2 90% 90% 3 152 85% 6 5 85%
3 2 60 1 2 3 / 21
4 6 6 98 1608 200021 021-53594566 1 2 2003 007 3 200326 22
4 2003118 5 6 20030478 7 8 9 23
1 005 008 009 014 025 026 027 028 005 008 009 014