17 4 Vol. 17, No. 4 2005 12 CHIN ESE JOU RNAL OF POLAR RESEARCH December 2005 30 1, 2 ( 1, 100081 ; 2,, 100081) NCEP 1973 2002, 30,,,, 28/ 10a,, - 3. 5/ 10a 1/ 3,, 10 3 5 2 1 (Budd, 1975 ; Chiul, 1985 ;J acka,1983 ; Xiao and Douglas,2000), J acka and Budd (1991) 1973-1990 ;Wat2 kins (2000) 90 20 90, (,,1995), (,1996 ;,2003 ;,2004) 1973 1993, 10-20 30, 1973, 30,, 1991 NO2 AA (N IC) WMO SIGRID, [ ] 2005 9,2005 11 [ ] (40575033) [ ],,1951,
234 17 1973 1989 (NSIDC) SMMR SMM/ 1,,, NCEP 1973 2002 ( Ice concentration), NCEP, NCEP, 1. 875 192, (1. 089 1. 804) 94, 192 94 = 18048 :, 100 %,, 0 ;, 1973 1 2002 12 30 2, ( ), ( ),, 50 S,,,,,,,, 10 5 500hPa 588 10 1 60 S (, ) (, ) (, ) ( ( ) ) Fig. 1. Seasonal variation of zonal mean ice concentration at 60 S(top), sea ice area index in the Antarc2 tic ( middle) and the Arctic ( bottom). ( The dashed in Fig. 1. are monthly variation (difference be2 tween next and former month) of zonal mean ice concentration at 60 S, ice area index in the Ant2 arctic and the Arctic)
4 : 30 235 1 60 S ( 1, ) ( 1, ) ( 1, ), ( ), 60 S (, ), 2 (,, ), 12 %, 9 ( ), 87 %, 2 7. 25, 75 % 1 7, 1 2, ( 1, ), 2, 890, 9 ( ), 2967,9 2 2077, 9 2 3. 3 (1996) (1995),, 2,1973 1993 2. 3 10 6 km 2 9, 15. 4 10 6 km 2, 1,60 S,60 S 2, 5 6 ( 1, ),, 10 9, 9, 7 ; 9 12 1,, 2, 5, 2, 4 5 ( 1, ),, 9, 7 ; 9 12 1,, 2, 5, 1 ( 1, ),,, 3, 1742, 9, 1214, 528, 9 3 1. 4,, 9 ( 1, ),,10,, 3, 6 ; 3,, 9,, 6 2 (2, ) (9, ) (9 2 ) ( ),, 80 % ( 2 ), (90 W ) (150 E) (100 E) (85 E) (0 ) 80 %,, 70 % 2, 80 %
236 17, 40 % ( 2 ), 63 S 2, 9 ( 2 ), 58 S, 80 %, 10 % 50 %,,,,, 2 2, ( 2 ), 6 7 (,1995), 5,, 2 (2, ) (9, ) (9 2 ) ( ) ( 80 % ; 0 10 % ) Fig. 2. The average ice concentration in summer ( February, left) and winter ( September, middle) and its difference between summer and winter (right) (in the Fig, the black area is more than 80 % and the gray area is 0 10 % of ice concentration),,,,,,, 7,, 5,,,,,, ;,,,,,,, ;,,,,,
4 : 30 237 3 3 ( ) ( ) ( ) (9, ) (2, ), ( ) 1973, 1977, 790 ;,1999, 915 1973 2002 28 / 10a (9, ), 1973, 1977, 1084 ;,1997, 1274 1973 2002 38 / 10a (2, ) 1981, 316, 2001, 422, 1973 2002 6 / 10a, ( ),, ( ) 1973, 1996, 1586,, - 3. 5 / 10a (9 ) ( ),, - 29. 4 / 10a (2 ) ( ),,, 4. 4 / 10a,,, 28 / 10a ;, - 3. 5 / 10a 3 ( ) ( ) ( ) 9 ( ) 2 ( ) Fig. 3. The interannual change of sea ice area index in the Antarctic (left) and the Arctic (right) : annual mean (top), winter ( September, middle) and sum2 mer ( February, bottom) (2004), 3, 1920 1953 1982, 30 0. 0466 / 10a,
238 17 100 0. 466 150 4, 1898 1926 1946 1980, 30 0. 0431 / 10a, 100 0. 431,,,,?,,, ( ),,,,,,,, 4 ( : %/ 10a, ) Fig. 4. Trend rate of annual mean ice concentration at each point (units : %/ 10a, the gray area is nega2 tive trend rate) 4 ( : %/ 10a),,,, 69 S, 79 W, - 12. 8 %/ 10a, 68 S,13 W 68 S,171 E, 10. 7 %/ 10a 4. 1 %/ 10a,,,,,,,, (6 8, ),, (12-2, ),
4 : 30 239 (2004),, 4, (2002) EOF SVD, A (138 144 W,61 63 S) B (60 66 W,61 63 S),, ASOI(Antarctic Sea2ice Oscillation Index) ASOI = ICE(A) - ICE(B), ( A ) 137 151 W,62 66 S 23 (B ) 69 82 W, 64 68 S 24,,, 5, ( B ), 85. 0 W, 65. 7 S, - 0. 717,,, ( A ), 144. 5 W, 63. 8 S, 0. 731,, 7. 5 E,60. 0 S, 0. 323,, 121. 9 E,63. 8 S 178. 1 E,63. 8 S, 0. 232 0. 238, 0. 1 %, 5 % 361, 28. 6 %, 1/ 3,,,, ( ) ( ),,,,, 500hPa ( ) 3,,,,,,, 55 60 S, 5 6 60 65 S,, 2 7 1 2, 65 S 3 Murray J, (1975) :,,86 95
240 17 5 ( 137 151 W,62 66 S 69 82 W,64 68 S ) (1973 1 2002 12 360,, 0. 50 ( - 0. 50) ) Fig. 5. Correlation coefficient between Antarctic Sea2ice Oscillation Index and ice concentration at each point in the Antarctic during the corresponding period (1973. 1 2002. 12, total 360 months, in the figure, dashed is negative correlation coefficient, and absolute value of correlation coefficient is more than 0. 50 in the gray area),,,,,,,, ( 5),
4 : 30 241 5 %,,,,, (1973 1 2002 12 ) 6 7 6, 5 % :120 ( 1) 60 ( 2) 40 ( 3) 30 ( 4) 24 ( 5) 17. 1 ( 7) : 120 ( 1),, 1/ 3, 120,, 11 ; 7,,, 36 98 ( 1976 1979 ), 156 180 ( 1986 1988 ) 216 288 ( 1991 1997 ) 3 5, 40 60 ( 2 3) 7 1 24 ( 1973 1974 ), 36 72 ( 1976 1977 ), 84 96 ( 1979 1980 ), 108 120 ( 1982 1983 ), 156 180 ( 1986 1989 ), 216 228 ( 1991 1993 ), 252 272 ( 1994 1996 ), El nino, (1990) 2, 17 30 ( 4 7) 7, 3 5,, 6 (1973 1 2002 12 ) Fig. 6. Spectrum analysis of Antarctic Sea - ice Oscillation Index (1973. 1 2002. 12)
242 17 7 (1973 1 2002 12 ) ( ) Fig. 7. Wavelet analysis of Antarctic Sea - ice Oscillation Index (1973. 1 2002. 12) ( In the figure, the black area is negative value area) 5 30 : 1. 7 (3 9 ), 5 (10 2 ), 6 2. 1973 1977,,, 28/ 10a, 30,,,, 69 S, 79 W, - 12. 8 %/ 10a,,, - 3. 5/ 10a 3. ( 137 151 W,62 66 S 69 82 W,64 68 S ) 1/ 3, 10 3 5 2, 3 5 ENSO,,,,,, (AAO ADP ACW) ENSO
4 : 30 243,, (2004) :,,,16 (1),29 37,, (2004) :,. Vol. 26. No. 3,267 274,, (1995) :,,50 (5),193 203 (1990) : 3 5,,1 (2),169 176, (1995) :,,,20 80,, (2002) : ENSO,, 13 (6), 711 -,, (1996) :,,13 (3),21 29,, (2003) :,,25 (3),32 46 717 Budd C(1975) : Antarctic sea ice variation from satellite sensing in relation to climate, J Glacioe, 15,417 427 Chiul S(1985) : Variation of Antarctic sea ice, Mon. Weather Rev., 111, 578 580 Jacka T H (1983) Computer database for Antarctic sea ice extent, A N A R E Research N otes, 13, Australian Antarctic Division, 1 10. Jacka T H and Budd WF (1991) : Detection of temperature and sea ice extent changes in t he Antarctic and sout hern o2 cean, International Conference on the Role of the polar Regions in Global Change, Proceedings of a Conference Held J une 11 15, 1990, University of Alaska Fairbanks, GU IAF and CGC. ASR. UAF, Fairbanks, Alaska. Watkins AB (2000) : Current Trends in Antarctic Sea Ice : The 1990s Impact on a Short Climatology, Journal of Cli2 mate, 13 (24). 4441 4451. Yuan Xiaojun and Douglas G( 2000) : Martinson : Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Variability and Its Global Connectivity, J ournal of Cli mate.,13 (10), 1697 1717. VARIATION OF ANTARCTIC SEA ICE IN THE LATEST 30 YEARS Bian Lingen 1, Lin Xuechun 2 ( 1 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081,China ; 2 National climate Center, CMA, Beijing 100081, China) Abstract By using t he NCEP data of ice concentration from 1973 2002, seasonal and intera2 nnual variation of Antarctic sea ice concentration, as well as it s relationship wit h Ant2 arctic Sea ice Oscillatio n Index in t he latest 30 year s are st udied. It is indicated t hat characteristic of t he seasonal variation of Antarctic sea ice is that t he coagulated period is longer t han t he t haw period. But Arctic sea ice coagulated period is t he same as t haw pe2 riod of sea ice basically. Seco nd, t here are clearly interannual change of A ntarctic sea
244 17 ice, and it s area index appears uptrend with the trend rate of 28/ 10a. But Arctic sea ice area index is decrease and it s trend rate is - 3. 5/ 10a. Third, Antarctic Sea - ice Oscilla2 tion index is a important parameter in t he variation of Antarctic sea ice which is able to rep resent sea ice area change of 1/ 3 app ro ximately wit h t he o scillatio ns cycle of 10 years, 3 5 years and 2 years. Key words Antarctic sea ice, Antarctic Sea Ice Oscillation, climate change.