,,,,,,,?? : 2008 /3 ( 15 ), 115 128 Q uarterly Journal of Intenational Politics 115
, ( Fareed Zakaria), ( Samuel P. Huntington),,,,,,, 1964,,, 1993 ( Foreign A ffa irs), 2000 ( The N ew sw eek) 2003 2008 : 116 : ( ),, 2001 Fareed Zakaria, From W ealth to Power: The Unusual O rigins of Am erica s W orld Role ( ( Princeton, N. J. : Princeton University Press, 1998).,, : :,, 2001 6, 84 : James F. Hoge and Fareed Zakaria, eds., The Am erican Encounter: The U nited S tates and the M aking of the M odern W orld Essays from 75 Years of Foreign Affairs (New York: Basic Books, 1997)
,,,,,,,,, 10,,, :,, ;, ; 1865 1889 1889 1908, ;,,,, Fareed Zakaria, The Future of Freedom : Illiberal Dem ocracy at Hom e and Abroad (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2003). Fareed Zakaria, The Post2Am erican W orld (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2008). 117
( ) :?,?,,,, : 1865 1889,?,,, 1889 1908,? ( ), 1865 1908,,,,,,,,,,, 118 Fareed Zakaria, From W ealth to Power, p. 8. Ibid., p. 5.
, 1865 1889, 1889 1908,,,, :, :,,,, ( Kenneth N. W altz), (Hans J. Morgenthau),,,,,, Gideon Rose, Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy, W orld Politics, Vol. 51, No. 1 1998, pp. 144 172., Sean M. Lynn2Jones, Realism and America s R ise: A Review Essay, International Security, Vol. 23, No. 23, 1998, pp. 157 128; Jeffrey W. Taliaferro, Security Seeking under Anarchy, International Security, Vol. 25, No. 3 (W inter 2000 /01), p. 128 Sean M. Lynn2Jones, Realism and America s R ise: A Review Essay, p. 161. Fareed Zakaria, From W ealth to Power, p. 29. Sean M. Lynn2Jones, Realism and America s R ise: A Review Essay, p. 162. 119
( nation) ( state),,,,, :,, ;,,,,,,,,,,, : :, :, : :, 60, 56 Randall Schweller, Review: From W ealth to Power: the U nusual O rigins of Am erica s W orld Role, Am erican Political Science Review, Vol. 93, No. 2, 1999, pp. 497 499. :, 60 120
( ),, 1865 1908 54,, 1865 1889, 22, 6 ; 22, 2, 15 1889 1908, 32, 25 ; 32, 6, 22, 9% 19%, 68% 69% :,, 19,,,,,,,, Fareed Zakaria, From W ealth to Power, pp. 183 184. : :, 84 121
;,,, : ; ( ) ;, ;, :,, ( ),, : ; ;,, ;, ;, 122 Fareed Zakaria, From W ealth to Power, pp. 186 187. Robert Gilp in, W ar and Change in W orld Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981).
,,,,,,,,,,,, ( billiard ball),, :,,, 1865 1908 54,,,, Fareed Zakaria, From W ealth to Power, pp. 191 192. M ichael L ind, The Catalytic State, The N ational Interest, Vol. 27, 1992, pp. 3 13; M ichael C. Desch, W ar and Strong States, Peace and W eak States? International O rganization, Vol. 50, No. 2, 1996, pp. 237 68. Quoted from Fareed Zakaria, From W ealth to Power, p. 192. : Stephen Krasner, D efending the N ational Interest: Raw M aterials Investm ents and U. S. Foreign Policy ( Princeton, N. J. : Princeton University Press, 1978) ; Peter J. Katzenstein, ed., B etween Power and Plenty: Foreign Econom ic Policies of Advanced Industrial S tates (Madison: University ofw isconsin Press, 1978) ; Jack L. Snyder, M yths of Em pire: Dom estic Politics and International Am bition ( Ithaca: CornellUniversity Press, 1991) ; Thomas J. Christensen, U seful Adversaries: Grand S trategy, D om estic M obilization, and S ino2am erican Conflict, 1947 1958 ( Princeton, N. J. : Princeton University Press, 1996),, Fareed Zakaria, Realism and Domestic Politics: A Review Essay, International Security, Vol. 17, No. 1, 1992, pp. 177 189 Fareed Zakaria, From W ealth to Power, p. 34. 123
,,,,,, ( ), ;,,,,,,,,,,,,, Gary King, Robert O. Keohane, and Sidney Verba, D esigning Social Inquiry in Q ualitative Research ( Princeton, N. J. : Princeton University Press, 1994 ) ; A rend L ijphart, Comparative Politics and the Comparative Method, Am erican Political Science Review, Vol. 65, No. 3, 1971, pp. 682 693 124 Sean M. Lynn2Jones, Realism and America s R ise: A Review Essay, p. 181., :, 292
,,,,,, 1865 1908,, : ;,,,,,,, ;,,, : : ( ), 2007 Fareed Zakaria, From W ealth to Power, p. 43. : : ( ),, 2001, 10 :, 281, 62, 280, 62 125
, : 1865 1908,, 43,,,,,, M. ( Sean M. Lynn2Jones) 1865 1908,, (John A. Thomp son),,, 1908,,,, 54 (1865 1889 1889 1908 ) :, 1865 1889, ;, (Culebra) ( Tiger Island) Sean M. Lynn2Jones, Realism and America s R ise: A Review Essay, p. 172. Ibid., p. 179. John A. Thomp son, Review: From W ealth to Power: the U nusual O rigins of Am erica sw orld Role, Journal of Am erican H istory, Vol. 86, No. 2, 1999, pp. 820 821. :, 132, 262 263, 132 126
( St. Barthelemy),,,,,,,,,,, 150,,,,,,,,,, :, 80 Sean M. Lynn2Jones, Realism and America s R ise: A Review Essay, p. 180. Fareed Zkaria, The Future of Freedom : Illiberal Dem ocracy at Hom e and Abroad. 127
,,,,, :,,,,,,, 128