T_FSAndVSAbstract T_Graph T_ YieldInfo T_ReportAbstract 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 1,744.3 2,028.8 3,139.6 3,970.6 4,863.9 Growth(%) 27.7% 16.3% 54.8% 26.5% 22.5% 284.4 370.7 551.4 711.0 925.3 Growth(%) 64.2% 30.3% 48.8% 28.9% 30.1% (%) 34.1% 38.9% 36.0% 36.5% 38.0% (%) 16.3% 18.3% 17.6% 17.9% 19.0% () 0.36 0.46 0.69 0.89 1.16 () 2.20 2.61 3.20 3.96 4.95 40.1 30.8 20.7 16.0 12.3 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.6 2.9 (%) 16.2% 17.7% 22.7% 23.6% 24.6% T_RankInfo -A 16.00 6 14.25 2009-06-08 T_MarketInfo 11,400.00 2,223.54 800.00 156.04 4.03/14.52 % 30.59% 27,823 12 % 5.78 55.93 55.66 11.49 84.88 40.16 T_Analyst 0755-82558030 taoxm@essence.com.cn 0755-82558026 liky@essence.com.cn T_RelatedReport 1
1. 1.1. 1.2. 1.3. 2
1.4. 2. 2.1. 3
2.2. 2.3. 4
2.4. 3. 3.1. 5
3.2. 3.3. 3.3.1. 3.3.2. 3.3.3. 6
4. 5. 7
5.1. 5.1.1. 5.1.2. 8
5.1.3. 5.2. 5.2.1. 9
5.2.2. 10
5.3. 5.3.1. 11
5.3.2. 5.4. 5.4.1. 5.4.2. 12
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8. 14
T_FSAndVS 2009-6-8 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 1,744.3 2,028.8 3,139.6 3,970.6 4,863.9 1,148.6 1,239.3 2,008.7 2,522.1 3,015.6 27.7% 16.3% 54.8% 26.5% 22.5% 110.5 134.9 207.2 262.1 321.0 64.8% 14.6% 55.5% 29.2% 29.9% 12.3 35.8 55.3 69.9 85.6 64.2% 30.3% 48.8% 28.9% 30.1% 45.5 63.9 94.2 119.1 145.9 EBITDA 64.3% 15.8% 56.0% 28.4% 29.5% -4.3-1.9 0.3-2.5-2.9 EBIT 64.2% 15.3% 56.2% 28.8% 29.9% -2.6 59.0 - - - NOPLAT 63.2% 31.7% 57.5% 28.6% 30.2% - - - - - 112.1% 36.7% 10.1% 6.3% 21.1% - - - - - 196.0% 18.9% 22.5% 23.7% 24.9% 434.4 497.7 773.9 999.9 1,298.7-1.8-2.1 - -2.0-34.1% 38.9% 36.0% 36.5% 38.0% 432.6 495.6 773.9 997.9 1,298.7 24.9% 24.5% 24.7% 25.2% 26.7% 148.2 124.9 193.5 249.5 324.7 16.3% 18.3% 17.6% 17.9% 19.0% 284.4 370.7 551.4 711.0 925.3 EBITDA/ 25.0% 24.9% 25.1% 25.5% 26.9% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E EBIT/ 24.7% 24.4% 24.7% 25.1% 26.6% 512.5 690.4 1,069.4 1,190.3 1,260.0 - - - - - 14 19 14 11 9 54.7 83.2 197.8 250.2 306.5 379 518 403 348 327 - - - - - 718 971 814 792 768 27.0 820.3 418.5 418.5 418.5 3 3 2 3 3 4,040.1 4,514.3 6,163.7 7,462.6 9,088.2 612 759 612 618 612 95.4 102.9 136.3 161.2 188.0 739 1,009 847 815 786 - - - - - 400 554 434 371 345 - - - - - - - - - - ROE 16.2% 17.7% 22.7% 23.6% 24.6% - - - - - ROA 5.9% 5.7% 7.0% 7.7% 8.5% 100.6 114.3 122.7 128.1 128.5 ROIC 22.5% 14.0% 16.1% 18.8% 23.0% - 48.3 29.6 18.4 11.6 8.8 109.2 102.0 95.3 89.1 0.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.2 47.4 7.6 8.0 8.2 2.6% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4,840.3 6,530.3 8,247.6 9,732.6 11,498.6-0.2% -0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% 54.7 84.3 10.0 10.0 10.0 / 3.1% 4.8% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 629.6 953.1 1,194.2 1,499.4 1,792.9-10.0 - - - 63.7% 68.0% 68.9% 67.5% 65.6% 1,061.0 1,244.3 2,626.9 3,595.4 4,281.2 175.2% 212.3% 222.0% 207.3% 190.6% 868.8 1,316.2 1,416.2 1,516.2 1,616.2 2.14 1.99 1.87 1.88 1.90-3.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.31 0.54 0.43 0.40 0.37 3,081.6 4,439.2 5,686.3 6,565.1 7,542.2-99.01-258.80 2,847.75-402.56-445.71 1.9 3.7 32.7 70.2 118.9 400.0 800.0 800.0 800.0 800.0 DPS() - 0.30 0.14 0.18 0.23 1,356.8 1,287.4 1,728.6 2,297.4 3,037.6 0.0% 64.7% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 1,758.7 2,091.1 2,561.3 3,167.5 3,956.5 0.0% 2.1% 1.0% 1.2% 1.6% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 284.4 370.7 551.4 711.0 925.3 EPS() 0.36 0.46 0.69 0.89 1.16 6.6 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.4 BVPS() 2.20 2.61 3.20 3.96 4.95-2.6 59.0 - - - PE(X) 40.1 30.8 20.7 16.0 12.3 - - - - - PB(X) 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.6 2.9 - - - 0.3-2.5 P/FCF -21.6 47.7 61.2 71.6 84.7 - - - - - P/S 6.5 5.6 3.6 2.9 2.3-0.0-0.0 29.0 37.4 48.7 EV/EBITDA 15.1 25.6 16.3 12.4 9.7-1,352.9-671.8 252.9-102.5-729.5 CAGR(%) 38.1% 38.0% 23.3% -100.0% -100.0% -1,012.8-220.8 847.6 657.7 256.0 PEG 1.1 0.8 0.9-0.2-0.1-15.2-203.7-2.1-2.1-2.1 ROIC/WACC 2.5 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.5 1,380.6 602.4-112.3-439.7-82.2 REP 1.0 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.0 Wind.NET 15
T_AuthorInfo 6 300 15% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300-5% 5% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300 15% A 300 B 300 T_Sales 021-67865293 zhuxian@essence.com.cn 021-68765237 lingjie@essence.com.cn 021-68766067 liangtao@essences.com.cn 021-68763872 ligr@essence.com.cn 021-68763879 zhangqin@essence.com.cn 021-68765206 nanfang@essence.com.cn 010-66581676 zhourong@essence.com.cn 010-66581668 mazn@essence.com.cn 010-66581689 lixin@essence.com.cn 0755-82558268 panlin@essence.com.cn 0755-82558089 zhangqp@essence.com.cn 0755-82558069 wanghw@essence.com.cn 0755-82558087 wangyy3@essence.com.cn : 518026 : 200122 : 100034 16