2010 03 21 002232.SZ ()17.59 ()16.41-23.93 A() 100.50 () 4,472.08 () 23.92/12.80 300 3293.87 5947.28 22.6 20.6 18.6 16.6 14.6 12.6 090323 090617 : 090907 (8621)61038265 chengb@gjzq.com.cn (8621)61038242 chenyh@gjzq.com.cn 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 091204 100304 300 969 15A 200011 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E () 0.447 0.492 0.520 0.27 0.479 0.786 31.32% 10.21% 41.25% 19.44% 81.25% 64.18% EPS () N/A N/A N/A 0.335 0.530 0.748 () N/A N/A 25.38 52.37 29.34 17.74 () 45.06 70.63 38.55 56.57 N/A N/A () 25.86 45.72 15.55 29.70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.20% N/A N/A N/A PE/G() N/A N/A 0.62 N/A N/A N/A 27.27% 28.70% 13.00% 14.33% 15.10% 19.87% () 1.64 1.72 4.00 2.17 3.17 3.95 () N/A N/A 3.30 7.50 5.14 4.12 () 0.70 0.16 0.24 0.37 0.42 0.80 A() N/A N/A 32.00 100.50 100.50 100.50 () 95.12 95.12 127.12 254.24 291.82 291.82 EPS 2010 3 60% IT Q3 3 1260 4752 9552 1 IT 2 3 4.8% IT 5 IT 251 IT IT 3 2.11 4.47 7.59 1 此报告仅供国信证券股份有限公司使用 1
23 GPS 2010~2012 1.40 2.29 3.57 81.25%64.18% 55.61% EPS 0.48 0.79 1.22 PE 16.41 PEG PEG 23.93 16.3 PEG PE 2
... 5... 6... 6... 6... 7... 8 Q3... 8 5 IT... 8... 9 2010... 9... 10... 10... 10... 10... 11... 12... 13... 13... 14... 15... 16... 16 2010... 16 IT... 17... 18... 18... 19... 20... 21... 22 3
12010~2012... 5 2... 6 3(2009)... 6 4... 7 5... 7 6... 7 7... 7 8... 8 9Q3... 8 10... 10 11... 11 12... 11 13PE... 12 14(2008)... 13 15(2008)... 13 16... 13 17... 14 18... 14 19... 14 20... 14 21... 15 22... 16 23... 16 24... 16 25... 17 26(2009)... 17 27... 18 28 IT... 18 29... 19 30... 19 31... 19 32... 20 33... 20 34... 20 35... 20 36... 21 4
Q3 5 IT GPS D-Partner 2010~2012 42.9%36.2% 32.9% 105.26%65.37% 55.96%. 12010~2012 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 106 352 629 965 55.0% 232.0% 78.5% 53.5% 27.0% 32.0% 34.0% 36.0% 223 294 410 574 15.0% 31.6% 39.6% 40.0% 51.0% 50.0% 47.0% 45.0% 954 1,193 1,467 1,790 20.0% 25.0% 23.0% 22.0% 3.5% 3.6% 3.7% 3.9% 32 42 55 75 26.0% 30.0% 32.0% 35.0% 36.0% 36.5% 37.0% 38.0% 1,316 1,881 2,562 3,404 21.3% 42.9% 36.2% 32.9% 1,760 2,241 2,843 33.8% 27.3% 26.8% 1,688 2,160 2,758 28.3% 28.0% 27.6% 1,675 2,113 2,662 27.3% 26.1% 26.0% 5
2009 2010 2 3(2009) 1800000 1600000 1400000 1,664,187 29.20% 19.83% 1200000 1000000 800000 14.25% 600000 400000 200000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 9.11% 13.70% 13.91% 2009 194.5 2608 26.9% 23.4% 14.25% 2010 230 2900 15% 2010 2010 2071 20% 0.1% 25% 6
4 5 ( 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 25% 20% 0.02% 0.05% 20% 16% 0.04% 14% 14% 0.06% 0.05% 0.04% 0.03% 0.02% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 28% 30% 26% 23% 24% 5% 0.01% 5% 0% 2005 2006 2007 0.00% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 1H09 6 20093 20094 20101 2010 20091 20092 20101 20092011 GPS,GPS 2000 1000 7 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Wind 7
Q3 Q3 Q3 2010 2009 IT IT 2010 2010 26.3% 54.8 8 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 29.4% 26.6% 26.3% 16.7% 14.8% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Q3 Q3 Q3 60 180 7000 10000 4.8% Q3 1260 4752 9552 9Q3 2010E 2011E 2012E 60 2 120 10 600 20 1,200 120 2 240 10 1,200 20 2,400 36 0 0 2 72 12 432 20 15 300 45 900 80 1,600 40 15 600 45 1,800 80 3,200 12 0 0 15 180 60 720 1,260 4,752 9,552 5 IT 251 IT 8
251 2006 5 IT 2010 251 2008 251 IT IT IT 2010 2010 2010 2010 B70 5 2009 B50 5 3.6 B70 2010 4 25% 1 2010 2009 2010 2010 5 1.4TSI 1.4TSI CC GTI Q5 2009 68.2 12 2010 7 25% 1.8 7000 2010 1.93 2011 2012 4.01 6.47 2000~3000 10 1~2 9
10 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 3.6 4.1 4.8 5.2 6 6.9 18.8 34.6-11.0 23.6 39.8-25% 25% 25% - 2.8 5.9 9.9-7000 6800 6500-1.93 4.01 6.47 2011 15%15%10% GPS 2010 GPS GPS 2010 GPS 27.1% 2015 GPS 260 D-Partner D-Partner 2001 GPS GPS D-Partner 2009 9 30 58365 GPS D-Partner EGR VNT 2008 52.76% 2009 2009 55% 2010~2012 3.52 6.29 9.65 10
15% 2009 15% 2010~2012 2.94 4.10 5.74 11 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E - 193 401 647 - N/A 107.7% 61.1% 106 159 228 319 55.0% 50.0% 43.0% 40.0% 31.5% 27.0% 25.0% 23.0% 106 352 629 965 55.0% 232.0% 78.5% 53.5% 12 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E - 13 48 96 - N/A 277.1% 101.0% 223 281 363 479 55.0% 26.0% 29.0% 32.0% - 26.0% 29.0% 32.0% 223 294 410 574 55.0% 31.6% 39.6% 40.0% 2009 20% 2009 20% 2010~2012 25%23% 22%1 IT 2010 2 20% 3 2009 18% 2010~2012 30%32% 35%1 30%22 2010 2010~2012 1.40 2.29 3.57 81.25%64.18% 55.61% 2.92 EPS 0.48 0.79 1.22 PE 11
2010 34.3 16.3 2010 34.1 34.3 EPS 16.41 13PE EPS PE (2010.3.19) 2008A 2009E 2010E 2008A 2009E 2010E 2010E 002063.SZ 24.25 213.94 290.38 380.44 0.6738 0.4871 0.661 36.7x 600845.SH 31.25 2146.81 2273.16 2736.21 0.6913 0.7693 0.9985 31.3x 002153.SZ 37.38 442.73 499.13 609.86 1.2698 0.8004 1.0412 35.9x 600289.SH 17.53 853.83 928.43 1196.63 0.2095 0.2341 0.4701 37.3x 002065.SZ 24.07 1158.92 1584.43 2115.18 0.6257 0.5804 0.7965 30.2x 963.25 1115.11 1407.66 0.6940 0.5743 0.7935 34.3x 002232.SZ 17.59 1085.07 1315.83 1880.96 0.2602 0.3109 0.5493 32.0x 002232.SZ 16.3 1085.07 1315.83 1880.96 0.2263 0.2703 0.4786 34.1x Wind PEG PE PEG 50% PEG 1 PEG 50 23.93 16.41~23.93 Q3 12
2000 10 25 2004 4 2008 5 9 14(2008) 15(2008) 3% 6% 18% 17% 6% 11% 73% 65% 50.76% 16 50.76% 7.8% 0.88% 5.0% 0.99% 34.57% (002232.SZ) 100% 100% 45% 13
24%37% 21%2009 13.16 17 18 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1316 37% 1085 791 21% 639 24% 2006 2007 2008 2009 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 1H09 2008 936 72.9%. 19 20 100% 90% 80% 70% 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 DNA 14
21 4S PLM PDM cpdm CAE MES ERP FFM HRM OA TDS DSERP D-Partner D-Partner 2006 2006 EMS 3.7 13000 15 20 2007 7 2 3 400 2010 2010 2071 10% 20% 40 15
22 EGR VNT EOL CAD( )PDM()PLM() CAE( ) ERP()SCM() CRM( ) BI() DSS() SAP 2006 23 24 20.2% BIDSS... 40.3% ERPCRM SCM... SAP 11.8% CADPDM PLMCAE... Oracle 4.9% 11.1% QAD 11.7% 2010 2010 26% 16
2009 2009 4 2009 4 2010 2010 26.3% 54.8 25 26(2009) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 29.4% 26.6% 26.3% 16.7% 14.8% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 12.1% 14.8% 17.7% 15.0% 23.0% 17.4% IT IT IT IT PLM( ) IT IT 2009 IT IT IT IT IT 17
27 28 IT PLM 7.9% 31.6% SOA EI 60.5% 25% 2010 2011 2347 2942 10% 20% 40%~60% 18
29 30 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 22.6% 30.3% 32.8% 31.6% 26.9% 25.4% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 7.0% 7.8% 8.5% 9.7% 10.6% 500 5% 2.0% - 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0% 0.0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 31 19
32 33 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 32.2% 31.1% 29.8% 28.5% 31.7% 23.6% 24.3% 26.4% 29.2% 27.0% 30.9% 29.8% 27.3% 24.8% 23.5% 13.3% 14.8% 16.5% 17.5% 17.8% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 28.7% 27.5% 26.2% 23.1% 23.9% 7.0% 3.4% 4.2% 4.8% 5.8% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 CCIC 70% 34 35 20
36 EDS EDS IT 1962 EDS 1968 1984 1996 EDS 2008 8 EDS EDS EDS 22% EDS BOSCH) DENSO (DELPHI) 1886 1949 1999 1909 147 6 1994 25 100 199318 20 - ETC,QR,,, 21
2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 639 791 1,085 1,316 1,881 2,562 76 72 167 179 223 89 23.7% 37.3% 21.3% 42.9% 36.2% 52 66 143 150 215 293-541 -672-929 -1,128-1,579-2,107 11 23 46 42 59 78 % 84.6% 85.0% 85.6% 85.8% 83.9% 82.2% 16 17 26 31 43 58 98 118 156 187 302 455 154 179 381 403 540 518 % 15.4% 15.0% 14.4% 14.2% 16.1% 17.8% % 66.7% 57.9% 61.7% 46.5% 44.7% 34.9% -2-4 -5-7 -10-14 0 0 0 0 0 0 % 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 21 71 111 341 550 852-3 -4-6 -8-13 -18 % 9.1% 23.0% 18.0% 39.5% 45.6% 57.5% % 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 56 59 125 120 117 113-47 -67-78 -100-140 -188 77 131 236 462 667 966 % 7.3% 8.4% 7.2% 7.6% 7.5% 7.4% % 33.3% 42.1% 38.3% 53.5% 55.3% 65.1% EBIT 47 43 65 72 138 235 231 310 618 865 1,206 1,483 % 7.3% 5.4% 6.0% 5.5% 7.4% 9.2% 0 30 0 0 0 0 0-3 -3 4 4 3 47 36 83 95 133 178 % 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% -0.3% -0.2% -0.1% 12 2 3 78 6 8 0-2 -3 0 0 0 59 68 87 173 139 186 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 55 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 23 22 101 101 101 % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 102 146 108 274 240 288 47 38 59 76 143 238 156 163 509 550 925 1,154 7.3% 4.8% 5.5% 5.8% 7.6% 9.3% 0 1 0 0 0 0-2 12 7 6 6 6 258 310 618 823 1,165 1,442 45 50 67 82 149 245 7.1% 6.4% 6.2% 6.2% 7.9% 9.5% -3-3 -1-5 -9-15 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 6.1% 6.9% 1.2% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 43 47 66 77 140 229 0.447 0.492 0.520 0.303 0.479 0.786 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.638 1.716 4.003 2.162 3.169 3.955 43 47 66 77 140 229 0.705 0.159 0.236 0.382 0.425 0.795 6.6% 5.9% 6.1% 5.9% 7.4% 9.0% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.290 0.000 0.000 27.27% 28.70% 13.00% 14.02% 15.10% 19.87% 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 16.46% 15.11% 10.71% 9.36% 11.99% 15.90% 43 47 66 77 140 229 25.01% 15.99% 12.70% 12.29% 14.02% 19.06% 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 14 19 23 45 74 0.70% 23.66% 37.25% 21.27% 42.95% 36.19% 0 5 5-6 -6-6 EBIT 29.47% -8.41% 52.65% 10.18% 91.82% 69.81% 17-52 -59 4-54 -65 31.32% 10.21% 41.25% 16.46% 81.25% 64.18% 67 14 31 97 124 232 13.59% 20.10% 99.19% 40.09% 39.44% 22.98% -50-38 -111-201 -242-367 0 0 0 0 0 0 25.2 25.9 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 9.8 9.4 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6-50 -38-111 -201-242 -367 22.8 16.8 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 0 1 292 37 235 0 0.0 32.9 31.1 89.5 103.0 118.7 20 65-85 79 0 1-24 -46-32 0-74 0-35.74% 7.74% -32.71% -32.59% -24.06% -7.61% -4 20 175 116 162 1 EBIT -681.9 13.1 20.3-20.2-33.3-72.9 13-4 95 13 43-134 39.62% 47.17% 17.53% 33.22% 20.59% 19.97% 22
0 0 2 4 6 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.00 1.14 1.25 1 2 3 4 5 1.00 = 1.01~2.0= 2.01~3.0= 3.01~4.0= 4.01~5.0= 612 20% 612 10%20% 612-10%10% 612 10%20% 612 20% 23