21 4 2 (61268.SH) 1.29 1.2-12. A () 24. () 17,39.1 () 11.9/8.9 3 3176.42 298.3 11.43 1.43 9.43 8.43 7.43 1122 1,2 8 6 4 2 1. 21.1.19 3 1, 28 29 21E 211E 212E ().249.274.338.48.63 () 1.76 2.4 3.46 3.86 4.46 ().4.8.67.57.84 () N/A N/A 3.4 21.43 16.34 () 31.82 9.62 16.76 16.76 16.76 (%) -12.96% 9.69% 5.44% 41.83% 31.18% (%) 14.14% 13.41% 9.77% 12.44% 14.12% () 1,39. 1,39. 1,69. 1,69. 1,69. 1.6 9 6 5 4 AP1 9 8 1 1 3 11 25 PE 6-12 1.2~12. 3 17 1% 1% - 1 - 此报告仅供国信证券股份有限公司使用

... 4... 4... 5... 6... 8... 11... 13... 15... 16... 18... 18... 2 1... 4 2... 4 3... 5 426-29... 5 526-29... 5 626-29... 6 729... 6 8... 6 9... 7 126~217... 7 11... 7 12 1GW... 8 13(, 2 )... 8 14... 8 15... 9 16AP1... 9 17AP1... 1 18... 1 19... 11 2... 11 21... 11-2 -

22... 11 23GW... 12 24... 12 25... 12 26... 13 27... 13 28... 13 29... 13 3... 14 31... 14 32... 14 33... 15 34... 15 35... 15 36... 16 37... 17 38... 18 39 8... 18 4... 18 41... 19-3 -

1958 1999 53 29 75.55 9 29 5.34 1 6 1 2 1.6 9 6 5 4 2-4 -

3 29 23.98 31.7% 42.8%29 149.7 71.29 47.62% 426-29 526-29 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 3,543 3,152 3,23 2,271 26 27 28 29 2,398 1,927 1,681 1,489 1,96 1,133 815 538 1,21 54 8 246-5 -

626-29 729 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 26 27 28 29 5,58 4,715 4,568 3,19 2,426 2,289 1,646 1,64 1,198 1,22 743 51 482 233295 482 1,41 7% 1,735 12% 7,129 48% 649 4% 4,415 29% 22 15% 36% 57 63.1GW 21 8 WNA - 6 -

9 WNA 5~6 2~3 AP1 212 214~215 12GW 217 68.1GW 6 126~217 11 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 26 27 (GW) 28 29 21E 211E 212E 213E (GW) 214E 215E 216E 217E 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 28 29E (Rmb) (Rmb) 21E 211E 212E 213E 214E 215E 216E 217E 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-7 -

12 /GW 5 3 213 1,3 52% 26% 2 1 / 1GW 1 2~3 29 2 212 1 12 1GW 13(, 2 ) 24 2% 34 28% 3. 2.5 2. 1.5-11 9% 1..5. - 2 17% - 31 26% (1) 1.2 14-8 -

8~9% 15 AP1 9 16AP1 3 29 4 AP1 8 AP1 3 AP1 3 AP1 4 1.5 29-9 -

AP1 21 AP1 17AP1 CPR1 3 2 2 + 21 11MW 29 CPR1 11MW 18-1 -

5% 5 25 15 2.5 1.5 4 21 68 68 24 /24 3 19 2 (kw) (kw/) (kw) (kw/) 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 28.3 2.2 9.4 122 363 622 48.6 41.9 36.4 37.8 39. 2,459 2,596 2,623 1,776 1,31 6 5 4 3 2 1 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 11.3 6.9 4.8 79 62 135 6.5 7. 4.5 227 252 221 13.7 519 17.4 661 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 21 22 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 (kw) 31.6 25.3 1,928 1,212 (kw/) 42. 36.1 31.9 2,937 2,347 2,426 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 9.7 243 (kw) 13.8 1.3 38 358 (kw/) 15.1 13.3 63 573 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 24 25 26 27 28 24 25 26 27 28 1 1 Cr12 22 3 12 5 3 25 5 224 15 1-11 -

23GW 6 BTM 29 1,375 kw 2,699 kw 29 1,613 kw 897 kw 29 2.5MW 1MW1.65MW 1.5MW 263 54 5% 24 25 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, (KW) (KW) (KW) 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 3 25 2 15 1 5 (kw) (kw) 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% BTM - 12 -

1999 28 1.23 5. 1999 43.5 28 3248.9 1999 58 28 892 35.5% 2% 26 27 6 5 () 3% 25% 3,5 3, () 1% 8% 4 2% 2,5 6% 3 2 1 15% 1% 5% 2, 1,5 1, 5 4% 2% % -2% % -4% 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 28 29 1, 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 -() 892 747 CAGR=35.5% 524 411 329 138 194 58 65 76 93 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 22% 24% 17 169 () 17% 17% 18% 21% 21% 229 31 416 487 553 22% 729 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 11 3 18%18% 15% Siemag Meer VA TECH AG 24 53 39 17 29 22 7 28 2.2% 4.2% 22-24 - 13 -

1 5 3 31 32 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 () () () 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 -12, 43%, 4.2%, 2.2% (), 18% (), 15% (), 18% 3.5 193.2% 3 5m - 14 -

33 28 3.65 3.42 14 3 2 21 1 34 35 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 () 2.1 2.1 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.7 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% 2 8-15 -

211 34 2 2 21 3 7 25 5 29 5.34.28 1/3 8 85% 1% 3 36-16 -

8 37 8 8 2 2 7 8 15 27-17 -

38 1-12 9,971,848 12,681 2.41%19.26% 16.89% 572811 1,64 5.44%41.83% 31.18%.34.48.63 1 1 3 11 25 PE 1.2~12. 3 17 1% 1% 39 8 4, 6 18% 37%, 32%, 35% 1% 21% 1%, 16%, 21% - 18 -

41 28 29 21E 211E 212E 3,543.18 3,229.97 3,26. 3,586. 3,944.6 12.41% -8.84%.93% 1.% 1.% 17.17% 15.33% 15.5% 16.% 16.% 2,934.67 2,734.92 2,754.7 3,12.24 3,313.46 18.75% -6.81%.72% 9.35% 1.% 68.51 495.5 55.3 573.76 631.14-1.6% -18.65% 2.7% 13.55% 1.% 47.5% 42.75% 35.84% 33.6% 31.11% 45.35% 35.46% 29.2% 25.65% 22.76% 1,927.36 2,398.6 3,2. 4,16. 5,2. 75.87% 24.42% 33.44% 3.% 25.% 29.65% 32.88% 33.% 34.% 35.% 1,355.87 1,69.67 2,144. 2,745.6 3,38. 9.47% 18.72% 33.2% 28.6% 23.11% 571.49 788.4 1,56. 1,414.4 1,82. 48.8% 37.95% 33.94% 33.94% 28.68% 25.84% 31.74% 35.18% 38.35% 41.1% 42.59% 56.48% 6.65% 63.24% 65.62% 538.44 245.73 54.6 72.78 913.61 574.64% -54.36% 12.% 3.% 3.% 1.64% 7.95% 8.% 9.% 1.% 481.17 226.18 497.35 639.53 822.25 455.7% -52.99% 119.89% 28.59% 28.57% 57.28 19.54 43.25 63.25 91.36-933.8% -65.88% 121.31% 46.25% 44.44% 7.22% 3.25% 5.94% 6.48% 7.2% 4.27% 1.4% 2.48% 2.83% 3.29% 444.31 441.44 794.6 1,32.98 1,187.93-2.91% -.65% 8.% 3.% 15.% 11.34% 7.3% 9.% 1.% 11.% 393.93 41.42 723.9 929.68 1,57.25-2.92% 4.18% 76.18% 28.57% 13.72% 5.38 31.3 71.51 13.3 13.67-2.88% -38.41% 13.49% 44.44% 26.5% 5.96% 5.84% 8.73% 9.52% 9.37% 3.75% 2.22% 4.11% 4.62% 4.71% 1,5.66 1,239.63 1,31.61 1,366.69 1,435.2 53.34% 23.26% 5.% 5.% 5.% 5.38% 5.% 5.% 6.% 7.% 951.52 1,177.7 1,236.58 1,284.75 1,334.63 56.29% 23.77% 5.% 3.89% 3.88% 54.15 61.93 65.2 81.94 1.39 15.15% 14.37% 5.% 26.2% 22.51% 13.48% 16.41% 14.31% 12.6% 11.32% 4.4% 4.44% 3.73% 3.66% 3.62% 7458.95 7554.83 996.8 1848.44 12681.16 6117.15 6158.89 7355.72 8611.79 997.6 1341.8 1395.94 1741.9 2236.65 2773.56 17.99% 18.48% 19.14% 2.62% 21.87% - 19 -

27 28 29 21E 211E 212E 27 28 29 21E 211E 212E 5,593 7,498 7,555 9,97 1,848 12,681 1,895 3,439 3,284 3,5 4,3 5,1 34.%.8% 2.4% 19.3% 16.9% 1,47 2,648 3,68 3,685 4,16 4,587-4,458-6,158-6,159-7,356-8,612-9,98 2,92 4,347 4,48 4,434 5,191 5,972 % 79.7% 82.1% 81.5% 8.9% 79.4% 78.1% 299 572 741 738 863 993 1,136 1,34 1,396 1,741 2,237 2,774 6,566 11,5 11,753 12,356 14,513 16,652 % 2.3% 17.9% 18.5% 19.1% 2.6% 21.9% % 65.1% 72.1% 66.1% 65.3% 67.8% 7.7% -32-32 -47-57 -65-76 59 2 6 7 6 6 %.6%.4%.6%.6%.6%.6% 2,97 3,748 5,51 6,114 6,526 6,557-112 -126-13 -155-184 -216 % 28.8% 24.6% 31.% 32.3% 3.5% 27.9% % 2.% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 53 492 459 432 372 321-467 -527-581 -664-77 -888 3,519 4,259 6,15 6,554 6,95 6,886 % 8.4% 7.% 7.7% 7.3% 7.1% 7.% % 34.9% 27.9% 33.9% 34.7% 32.2% 29.3% EBIT 525 655 638 866 1,217 1,594 1,85 15,265 17,768 18,911 21,419 23,538 % 9.4% 8.7% 8.4% 9.5% 11.2% 12.6% 1,76 2,74 3,453 2,451 3,63 4,75-14 -212-278 -265-322 -49 4,543 6,678 6,558 6,896 7,527 8,156 % 2.5% 2.8% 3.7% 2.9% 3.% 3.2% 67 46 227 215 245 277-2 -5-64 -29-3 -3 6,371 9,465 1,238 9,563 11,42 12,57 1,41 2,56 3,144 2,644 2,644 2,645 37-2 8 1,242 1,493 791 791 791 % 9.1% n.a.%.%.%.% 7,788 12,763 14,875 12,998 14,838 15,943 41 436 297 572 891 1,183 2,293 2,452 2,835 5,855 6,524 7,537 7.2% 5.8% 3.9% 6.3% 8.2% 9.3% 4 5 58 58 58 58 5-81 6 3 1 1,85 15,265 17,768 18,911 21,419 23,538 45 355 357 62 91 1,183 7.2% 4.7% 4.7% 6.6% 8.3% 9.3% -7-8 23-3 -9-118 27 28 29 21E 211E 212E 1.6% 2.3% -6.5% 5.% 1.% 1.% 399 347 38 572 811 1,64.287.249.274.338.48.63 1 1.65 1.764 2.39 3.465 3.86 4.46 398 347 38 572 811 1,64.266.35.75.674.572.841 7.1% 4.6% 5.% 6.3% 7.5% 8.4%....3.3.3 17.37% 14.14% 13.41% 9.77% 12.44% 14.12% 27 28 29 21E 211E 212E 3.95% 2.27% 2.14% 3.3% 3.79% 4.52% 38 572 811 1,64 9.44% 7.92% 6.61% 6.97% 8.3% 9.5% 394 363 461 532 27.51% 34.5%.76% 2.41% 19.26% 16.89% 278 343 393 56 EBIT 117.36% 24.88% -2.57% 35.66% 4.55% 31.1% -948-139 -699-681 254.3% -12.96% 9.69% 5.44% 41.83% 31.18% 14 1,139 966 1,421 42.67% 51.36% 16.4% 6.43% 13.26% 9.89% -58-926 -2,131-883 -799-51 23 6-54 -1 48.8 71.8 119.2 115. 17. 99. 213 13 21.8 214.8 248.8 22. 22. 22. -486-77 -2,55-884 -799-51 77.5 117.4 157.3 13. 115. 15. 71 58 2,499-92 138.8 132.8 176.1 182.5 187.1 172.4 82 2,362 1,913-2,23 1,179 446-258 -248-192 -335-454 -557 55.52% 85.8% 141.9% 4.36% 42.2% 31.75% 632 2,114 1,779-39 633-111 EBIT 3.7 3.1 2.3 3.3 3.8 3.9 147 1,46-172 216 8 8 77.22% 83.61% 83.72% 68.73% 69.27% 67.73% - 2 -

1 2 2 2 2 5 5 5 5 1. 1.63 1.67 1.68 1.69 1 2 3 4 5 1. = 1.1~2.= 2.1~3.= 3.1~4.= 4.1~5.= 612 2% 612 1%2% 612-1%1% 612 1%2% 612 2% - 21 -

(8621)-6138311 (861)-66215599-8832 (86755)-8285115 (8621)-61382 (861)-61382 (86755)-61382 researchsh@gjzq.com.cn researchbj@gjzq.com.cn researchsz@gjzq.com.cn 211 132 518 969 15A 27 B 4 337 285-22 -