% 2 40 ~

* 38 4 2014 7 Vol. 38 No. 4 July 2014 101 Population Research 100081 Intention for Old-age Support of the Middle-aged Parents of Only Child in Rural China Ding Zhihong Abstract Changes are taking place in the intention for old-age support of the middle-aged parents of only child in rural China who are increasingly seeking social support or support by their own rather than family support with a considerable portion having no intention at all. Health status economic status and social security largely determine the intention for old-age support of the middle-aged parents of only child. The preference for social support over family support is significantly associated with income education occupation and social security while the preference for support by own over family support is significantly related to family size income age education and health status. It is surprising that gender of the only child land ownership and region do not have significant effects on their intention for old-age support. Keywords Rural Area Middle-aged Parents of the Only Child Intention for Old-age Support Author Ding Zhihong is Associate Professor School of Social Development Central University of Finance and Economics. * 10@ ZH020

102 38 2005 1% 2 40 ~59 1540. 28 2009 2006 2005 3000 2006 2011 2004 1 3 2000 2002 1999 2004 3 2007 3 2013 3 2013 2006 2013 2002 2010 810

4 103 2013 2007 2004 2004 2007 2009 2 2. 1 / / / / / / 3 40 ~ 59 40 2. 2 2010 PPS 460 40 5 15 26171 51. 6% 48. 4% 52. 4% 47. 6% 90. 4% 9. 6% 18 ~ 34 35 ~ 49 50 ~ 64 25. 7% 43. 6% 30. 7% 1618 2. 3 Logistic Logit Logistic

104 38 Logit 3 1 3. 2 1. 1 1 9 26342 37845. 7 85 0 Table 1 1 Descriptive Statistics of Variables % % N = 1618 N = 1583 51. 1 42. 8 48. 9 57. 2 N = 1618 N = 1615 40 ~ 49 70. 9 69. 7 50 ~ 59 29. 1 30. 3 N = 1618 N = 1584 9. 3 15. 3 26. 9 84. 7 48. 8 N = 1618 15. 0 52. 4 N = 1617 28. 2 38. 5 19. 3 31. 3 N = 1614 22. 8 59. 1 7. 4 40. 9 2010 3 3. 1 3. 1. 1 2 14. 7% 1 5. 4% / / 22% 28. 6% 11. 3 6

4 105 21. 1% 15. 3 2 Table 2 Intention for Old-age Support of the Middle-aged Parents Having an Only Child and of Those Having more Children % % 14. 7 15. 6 / 22. 0 10. 7 / 28. 6 22. 6 / 6. 7 8. 2 21. 1 36. 4 1. 6 1. 1 5. 4 5. 3 100 100 N 1606 5461 Pearson Chi-Square = 232. 3 df = 6 Sig. = 0. 000 3. 1. 2 3 3 Table 3 Proportions Having a Definite Answer Regarding the Intention for Old-age Support of the Middle-aged Parents Having an Only Child % % N = 1606 N = 1571 79. 2 81. 1 80. 7 79. 1 N = 1606 ** N = 1603 40 ~ 49 78. 7 80. 8 50 ~ 59 82. 9 78. 0 N = 1606 ** N = 1572 77. 9 82. 8 75. 9 79. 1 81. 1 N = 1606 **** 84. 6 83. 5 N = 1605 *** 77. 0 82. 0 74. 6 82. 3 N = 1602 **** 76. 6 74. 5 70. 6 88. 1 * p < 0. 1 **p < 0. 05 ***p < 0. 01 ****p < 0. 001 50 ~ 59 40 ~ 49 4. 2

106 38 80% 80% 77% 90% 13. 6 80% 3. 1. 3 Logistic Logistic logit p = β 0 + β 1 x 1 + β 2 x 2 +.... + β p x p p β 0 β p p x p 4 Logistic Table 4 Logistic Regression Analysis of the Intention for Old-age Support of the Middle-aged Parents Having an Only Child B S. E. Exp B - 0. 145 0. 137 0. 865 50 ~ 59-0. 413 0. 159 0. 662 *** - 0. 244 0. 299 0. 784-0. 387 0. 230 0. 679 * - 0. 142 0. 215 0. 867-0. 305 0. 150 0. 737 ** 0. 576 0. 245 1. 779 ** 0. 620 0. 248 1. 859 ** 0. 284 0. 249 1. 328 0. 199 0. 143 1. 221 0. 000 0. 000 1. 000 *** - 0. 027 0. 064 0. 973-0. 776 0. 151 0. 460 **** 0. 132 0. 201 1. 141 0. 145 0. 176 1. 156 0. 044 0. 185 1. 045 Constant 1. 707 0. 418 5. 512 **** Chi - square 79. 955-2 Log likelihood 1463. 605 Nagelkerke R Square 0. 180 1 2 * p < 0. 1 **p < 0. 05 ***p < 0. 01 ****p < 0. 001 4

4 107 40 ~ 49 50 ~ 59 66. 2% 73. 7% 1. 779 1. 859 1. 328 46% 3. 2 3. 2. 1 5 5. 3 6. 5 40 ~ 49 50 ~ 59 14. 8 50 ~ 59 40 ~ 49 13. 4% 31. 1 7. 7 23. 5 50% 29. 2 15. 2 14. 1 50% 30% 40% 30% 9. 4 1. 6 11 50% 51. 1 30. 7 20. 5 45. 8% 22. 3 15. 8 6. 6 1 /3 1 /4 60% 44% 1 /3 30%

108 38 5 Table 5 Specific Intention for Old-age Support of the Middle-aged Parents Having an Only Child % N = 1259 ** 28. 7 47. 6 23. 7 27. 5 42. 3 30. 2 N = 1259 **** 40 ~ 49 26. 5 49. 4 24. 1 50 ~ 59 31. 9 34. 6 33. 5 N = 1259 **** 19. 1 36. 4 44. 5 20. 4 44. 8 34. 8 29. 0 46. 8 24. 2 42. 6 44. 1 13. 4 N = 1233 **** 45. 1 36. 0 18. 9 15. 9 51. 2 33. 0 N = 1259 **** 28. 0 50. 0 22. 0 23. 6 50. 1 26. 3 33. 0 35. 9 31. 1 35. 4 18. 3 46. 3 N = 1257 **** 24. 9 47. 7 27. 4 35. 9 38. 3 25. 8 N = 1258 **** 4. 7 59. 0 36. 3 55. 8 28. 3 15. 8 N = 1228 **** 45. 8 32. 3 21. 9 23. 5 48. 1 28. 5 N = 1259 **** 35. 6 40. 1 24. 4 15. 1 56. 4 28. 5 24. 6 43. 0 32. 5 * p < 0. 1 **p < 0. 05 ***p < 0. 01 ****p < 0. 001 3. 2. 2 Logit Logit k = Logit k n k = = β' k X K = 1 2.... n - 1 exp β' k X 1 + n-1 exp β' k X k = 1 1 n = 1 + n-1 exp β' k X k = 1

4 109 β k n + l α X 3 Logit Multinomial Logit Model MNL Logistic 4 6 36. 6% 49. 8% 68. 9% 2. 493 4. 6% Table 6 6 MNL The MNL Regression Analysis of the Intention for Old-age Support of the Middle-aged Parents Having an Only Child / / B S. E Exp B B S. E Exp B 1. 880 0. 612-0. 398 0. 533-0. 049 0. 092 0. 953-0. 214 0. 072 0. 807 *** 0. 000 0. 000 1. 000 *** 0. 000 0. 000 1. 000 **** 0. 151 0. 199 1. 163 0. 208 0. 153 1. 231 50 ~ 59-0. 362 0. 223 0. 696 0. 321 0. 172 1. 378 * - 1. 004 0. 431 0. 366 ** - 0. 948 0. 336 0. 388 *** - 0. 697 0. 336 0. 498 ** - 0. 789 0. 272 0. 454 *** - 0. 373 0. 296 0. 689-0. 510 0. 253 0. 600 ** 0. 914 0. 215 2. 493 **** - 0. 214 0. 171 0. 807-0. 460 0. 375 0. 631 1. 539 0. 359 4. 662 **** - 0. 762 0. 376 0. 467 ** 1. 430 0. 358 4. 177 **** - 0. 294 0. 387 0. 745 1. 011 0. 368 2. 748 *** - 0. 147 0. 209 0. 863 0. 212 0. 168 1. 237-3. 073 0. 238 0. 046 **** 0. 075 0. 169 1. 078 0. 353 0. 264 1. 423-0. 257 0. 236 0. 774-0. 204 0. 268 0. 815-0. 097 0. 203 0. 908-0. 611 0. 317 0. 543* 0. 203 0. 216 1. 225-2 Log Likelihood Intercept Only 2558 Final 1938 Chi-Square 620. 13 1 2 * p < 0. 1 **p < 0. 05 ***p < 0. 01 ****p < 0. 001

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