2011 5~10% bbs.kaoyanmeng.com 2011 6
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 1 NPV 1 A B C 1
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com D D A B C 2 MM MM MM 3 2
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 1 2 3 4 1 1 3000 100 200 2 2010 1000 2012 1000 3 1000 1000 1000 5000 1000 3
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com NPV MM 2 A B C D B 2 1 2 1 2 4
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 1 A B C D 2 A B C D 3 A B C D 4 A B C D 1 2 3 4 25 5
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 35 5 1 2004 1 C A B D 2 D A B C D 3 D 4 B AC D 11 2 3 4 2 3 4 35, 35 5 6
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 50 90 1 1 2 3 1 2 7
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 1 1 2 2 1 8
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 2 3 9
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 2 1 2 2 1 EBIT EBIT EPS 10
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com EPS = 3 1 2 3 2 3 11
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 12
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 1 13
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 1 = A 1400 600 2.33 1 2.33 A 1.31 1 1 1 A B C D A = B C D A 2 = 11 500 12 500 12 31 100 500 2 1 A B C D C 1 1 14
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 1 3 = 1 2 1 3 = = 1 = = B S 2 = 3 2 3 3 A B C D B 1 2 = = EBIT I EBIT I 4 A B C 15
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com D AB 3 1 = 365 = 2 = 1 365 = 3 = 1 = 4 1 PM profit margin = 16
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 1 2 ROA return on assets = 1 = = = 3 ROE return on equity = 1 5 (EPS) = = B/S 0 ROE = = / / / 17
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 1 = (1 ) 1 2 3 1 A B C D 2 A B C D 3 20% 1 A 15% B 20% C 30% D 40% 4 A B EBIT C EBIT D EBIT 5 A B C D 1 2 18
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 3 4 ROE ROA 5 EBITD/ ROA 1 Thomsen 1.40 8.% 520000 2 173000 8.6% 143200 75% 1 2006 1 D ABC 2 C 3 D 120% 1 1 40% 4 D B C A D 5 A B C D A 100% A 100% A 1 21 2 3 19
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 4 ROE ROA ROE 5 EBITD/ EBITD/ ROA ROE 11 1 1 1.40 2.40 2 8.7% 2.4 20.88% 3 20.88% 520000 108576 2/ 173000/8.6% 2011628 2011628 75% 1508721 /1508721/143200 10.54 365/365/10.54 34.64 11 2 1 1 20
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com EFN 1 2 21
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 3 1 1 3000 4000 30% 4.5% 700 1300 176 9 875 100 16 824 1 700 + 1300 2000 = = = 66.6667% 3000 3000 176 + 9 185 = = = 6.1667% 3000 3000 2 400 66.67% 2666.67 875 4000 6.1667% 121.67 22
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 3 1 4000 4.5% 1 30% 126 100 16 824 126 1066 4EFN enter finace number 2666.67 1121.67 1066 479 EFN EFN = Δ - Δ -PM 1- d) 1 Δ PM d 1 Δ Δ PM 1- d) 2 3000 4000 30% 4.5% 700 1300 176 9 EFN 1 Δ 4000 3000 1000 EFN = Δ - Δ -PM 1- d) 2000 185 = 1000 1000 4.5% 4000 (1 30%) 3000 3000 = 479 EFN 479 2 1 EFN EFN 1 EFN 1 23
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 1 3000 4000 33.33% 1 EFN EFN 3 1 EFN>0 EFN<0 3 1 EFN Δ = Δ = (1+ )= Δ (1+ ) 2 2 1 (1 ) (1 ) EFN=( Δ + PM d ) Δ 3 3 Δ (1 + ) PM (1 d) =( ) 24
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 3 2 EFN 66.6667% 6.1667% [4.5% 1 30% 1 33.33% /33.33%] 47.9% 4000 3000 0.479 479 500 500/3000 16.7% 66.6667% 6.1667% 4.5% 1 30% 1 16.7% /16.7% 38.43% 500 0.3843 192.15 5% 66.6667% 6.1667% 4.5% 1 30% 1 5% /5% 5.65% 3000 5% 5.65% 8.475 1 2 3 1 0 PM (1 ) = 4 PM (1 d) 4 ROA b = 1 ROA b ROA b 1 2 1 25
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 2 / / / / / / / / [ / /] / [1 / /] [ ] / [1 ] / / / [1 ] ROE b = 1 ROE b 5 ROE b 5 3 2008 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 2010 1000 1100 1430 1352.46 50 55 71.5 67.62 20 22 26.6 27.05 30 33 42.9 40.57 330 363 405.9 446.47 60 66 151.8 80.99 90 429 557.7 527.46 5% 5% 5% 5% 2.5641 2.5641 2.5641 2.5641 1.1818 1.18 1.374 1.1814 26
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 60% 60% 60% 60% 10% 10% 11.82% 10% 10% 30% 5.42% 2008 5% 2.5641 1.3 0.6 10% 2008 1100 1000 /1000 10% 2008 5% 2.5641 1.1818 0.6 / 1 5% 2 5641 1.1818 0.6 10% 3 ROE 3 ROE 4 1 2008 2007 2008 2007 2 4 2009 30% 4 3 4 2010 5.42% 2007 2008 27
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 1 A B C D 2 2010 4000 2000 2011 2010 10% 100 2010 50% 10% 2010 A 0 B 2000 C 1950 D 145 3 2010 10% 0.6 2 50% 2010 A 6.38% B 6.17% C 8.32% D 105 1 2 3 Broslofski 20% EFN 20% EFN 4 1 Steiben ROE 8.5% 35% 1 2 3 2 2010 220 48 30 62 90 27 60 40 400 131 37 55 400 2010 2000 100 70 3000 2010 5% 2010 90% 1 2 3 28
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 4 4%1 1 1 D 0 D 2 D 100 10% 1000 1000 1 10% 1100 100 4000 1000 100 2000 1000 1100 10% 50% 145 0.6 10% 2 0.5 3= =6.38% 1-0.6 10% 2 0.5 1 2 1 2 1000 300 500 31 20% 20% EFN 100% 20% 20% 2 EFN 3EFN 4 EFN 4 29
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 1 2 12 3 4 34 11 b 1 0.35 0.65 ROE b/ 1 ROE b 0.085 0.65/ 1 0.085 0.65 5.85% 2 3 21 220/2000 11% 62/2000 3.1% 3000 2000 1000 100 20001 5% 5.25% 70 100 90% 63% 1000 11% 1000 3.1% 3000 5.25% 1 63% 20.725 2 20.725/1000 2.0725% 3 X 11% 3.1% 5.25% [ 1 X X] 1 63% 0X 32.61% 3000 5.25%1 63%131 37 55 26.13% 4 4%3000 1 4% 3120 3120/2000 1 56% 11% 3.1% 5.25% 1.56 56%1 63% 2.48875% 3210 2000 2.48875% 30.114 20.725 9.389 1 1 30
http://www.kaoyanmeng.com 2 3 4 5 31