2017 9 * :,, IV-Probit, Heckman,,, :,, :,,, (Krugman,1980),,,, (,2006;,2009),, 90% 40% (Lu,2010),,,, ;, 29183,, 28% :,,,, *, :361005, :nyexmu@163.com;,, :300071, :zhangbowei@nankai.edu.cn (71603221) (16YJC790125) (20720161071), 84
:,,, (,2007;,2008),,,,,,, :,, 2000-2007,,, IV-Probit,,, :,, ;, ;,,, ;,,,,, ( ) Melitz(2003),,,,,Bernardetal(2012),, (2015),,,, (2012),, (2015) 2006-2009, 2008,,,,, 1% 0.3% 85
2017 9, GDP,,,, ( ), (,2012), 30,, Lu(2010),,,,,, Anderson & van Wincoop(2004),, :, ;, (,2012), (,2012),,,, (, 2005), 1 1:,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 86
(Greenawayetal,2007;Guariglia & Mateut,2010),, (,2012;,2014),,,, 2 2:,, ( ) (2000-2007) Brandtetal (2012),,,,, 2, 1, 29183, 28% 1 1 (%) (%) 29183 20926 71.71 8257 28.29 11593 7682 66.26 3911 33.74 17561 13230 75.34 4331 24.66 28493 20525 72.04 7968 27.96 690 401 58.12 289 41.88 : ;,, ( ) : (Entryijk), Probit, Entryijkt i j k t t k j i, (t-1 ), i (t ), Entryijkt 1, 0,,, Probit : Prob(Entryijkt =1)= Φ(α+β 1lntfp1i + β 2finance1i +δcv ) (1),lntfp1 i i, Levinsohn & Petrin(2003),, (tfp), OLS ;, 87
2017 9 lntfp, lntfp1 (lnvad1 i ) finance1 i, finance i CV :(1)lnmarket1 i,,,, ;(2) (log(k/l)),, ;(3) (size1), ;(4) (age1),, ;(5),, (foreign1=(0,1)), ( ),foreign1 1, 0;(6) (produm), ;(7) (inddum),, ;(8) (yeardum),, ( ) 2, (lntfp) ( 4.13) ( 4.07); (lnvad),, 2 lntfp lnvad 4.07 4.03 0.47 4.13 4.07 0.51 3.40 3.34 0.97 3.74 3.68 1.02 0.004 0 0.013 finance 0.006 0.001 0.016 lnmarket log(k/l) -4.21-4.10 1.24-4.10-3.97 1.21 3.02 3.05 1.27 3.32 3.35 1.24 size age foreignl 5.73 5.70 1.09 5.57 5.52 1.07 10.34 10 4.52 10.39 10 4.95 0.63 1 0.48 0.52 1 0.5 :, 2,,,, 88
,,,, ( ) 3 (1), (1)~(3) (lntfp), (4)~(6) ; (1)(4), (2)(5),,,, (2)(5) (marginalefect) (3) (6) 3 Probit : (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Entry Entry Marginefect Entry Entry Marginefect lntfp1 0.358 *** (0.054) 0.189 *** (0.041) 0.063 *** (0.014) lnvad1 0.141 *** (0.017) 0.076 *** (0.022) 0.025 *** (0.005) finance1 2.780 *** (0.608) 1.600 *** (0.547) 0.535 ** (0.183) 2.214 *** (0.614) 1.333 ** (0.566) 0.445 *** (0.189) lnmarket1 0.030 ** (0.012) 0.023 *** (0.007) 0.008 *** (0.002) 0.028 ** (0.012) 0.024 *** (0.007) 0.008 *** (0.002) size1-0.122 *** (0.019) -0.049 *** (0.016) -0.017 ** (0.005) -0.006 (0.015) 0.011 (0.015) 0.004 ** (0.005) logkl1 0.073 *** (0.010) 0.076 *** (0.010) 0.025 *** 0.070 *** (0.011) 0.073 *** (0.011) 0.024 *** (0.004) age1 0.003-0.002-0.001 (0.001) 0.004-0.002-0.001 (0.001) foreign1-0.289 *** (0.041) -0.191 *** (0.033) -0.065 *** (0.011) -0.273 *** (0.041) -0.182 *** (0.033) -0.062 *** (0.0011) CV 25025 25025 25025 24728 24727 24727 Prob>χ 2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 : ;* ** *** 10% 5% 1% ;CV ; (3)(6) (dy/dx) 3, (lntfp1) (lnvad1), 1%, 1 (3),, (3) lntfp1 0.063, (lntfp1) (4.1), 10%( 89
2017 9 4.1 4.51), 0.63, (6) lnvad1 0.025,,,, 3,, 2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :, ;,, ( ) 3,,, 1% 99%, Probit 4 (1)(2),,, 1%,,,,,,,, (Melitz,2003;, 2015);,,,, 90
,, 4 : IV-Probitmodel (1) (2) (3) (4) 2ndstage 1ststage 2ndstage 1ststage Entry Entry Entry lntfp1 Entry lnvad1 lntfp1 0.178 *** (0.046) 2.342 *** (0.205) lnvad1 0.073 *** (0.014) 0.933 *** (0.051) finance1 1.405 ** (0.630) 1.173 * (0.619) 8.858 *** (0.848) -3.509 *** (0.239) 6.161 *** (0.826) -6.078 *** (0.684) lnmark1 0.019 *** (0.006) 0.022 *** (0.008) 0.059 *** (0.013) -0.020 *** (0.005) 0.050 *** (0.013) -0.038 *** (0.012) size1-0.045 *** (0.017) 0.012 (0.013) -0.636 *** (0.058) 0.271 *** (0.012) 0.133 *** (0.024) -0.145 *** (0.027) logkl1 0.078 *** (0.011) 0.073 *** (0.011) -0.170 *** (0.033) 0.098 *** (0.008) -0.207 *** (0.028) 0.288 *** (0.020) age1-0.003-0.002 0.002-0.001 (0.001) 0.003 (0.004) -0.005 * foreign1-0.200 *** (0.036) -0.174 *** (0.031) -0.181 *** (0.023) 0.026 *** (0.008) -0.095 *** (0.027) -0.019 (0.018) lntfpmeanc11 0.581 *** (0.076) lntfpmeani1 0.158 *** (0.031) lnvadmeanc1 0.613 *** (0.067) lnvadmeani1 0.442 *** (0.075) intanas1 0.007 *** (0.002) 0.013 *** (0.004) newps1 0.092 *** (0.023) 0.269 *** (0.053) CV Wald 41.41 [0.000] 96.37 [0.000] 22894 22246 24951 24656 Prob>χ 2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 : ;* ** *** 10% 5% 1% ;CV ;Wald (H0:athrho=0), Wald p, Probit (IV-Probit), (1) (meanlntfpc1) (2) (meanlntfpc1), 91
2017 9, :(3) (intanas1), ;(4) (newpshare1),, 4 (3)(4) 1 Probit (IV-Probit) IV-Probit (1ststage),,,,,, Probit, :,,,, ;,, Melitz (2003),Chaney(2008),Chaney(2008),,,,,, (domshare), ( ) Heckman,, 4 Wald, 1% (H 0 :athrho=0),, IV-, Heckman(1979) (HeckmanSelection Model) Heck- man(1979),, (coast) 2,, (lntfp1 lnvad1), (ivlntfp1 ivlnvad1), Heckman, 5 5, (ivlntfp1) (ivlnvad1), 1%,,,,,, 5, 92
:, 5 Heckman (1) (2) domshare Entry domshare Entry ivlntfp1 1.307 *** (0.349) 0.217 *** (0.031) ivlnvad1 0.530 *** (0.147) 1.219 *** (0.099) finance1 4.960 *** (1.356) 1.616 *** (0.613) 4.043 *** (1.147) 9.300 *** (0.903) lnmarket1 0.024 *** (0.009) 0.031 *** (0.008) 0.019 ** (0.008) 0.058 *** (0.008) size1-0.422 *** (0.099) -0.040 *** (0.011) 0.017 (0.020) 0.158 *** (0.016) logkl1-0.118 *** (0.029) 0.073 *** (0.009) -0.136 *** (0.037) -0.288 *** (0.032) age1 0.001 (0.001) -0.002 (0.002) 0.001 (0.001) 0.004 * (0.002) foreign1-0.170 *** (0.027) -0.185 *** (0.020) -0.143 *** (0.019) -0.136 *** (0.020) Coast 0.095 (0.457) 0.237 (0.452) lambda 0.317 ** (0.144) 0.474 *** (0.155) 24956 24956 Prob>χ 2 0.000 0.000 : ;* ** *** 10% 5% 1% ( ),,, :, ;,,,, (2011) (RegionalInstitution) : (RI), RI=(0,1),, 1, 0, 93
2017 9,, 6 (1) (2) domshare Entry domshare Entry ivlntfp1 ivlntfp1 RI 1.296 *** (0.348) 0.048 *** (0.012) 3.263 *** (0.315) 0.053 *** (0.020) ivlnvad1 0.512 *** (0.144) 1.171 *** (0.101) ivlnvad1 RI 0.065 *** (0.014) 0.071 *** (0.021) CV 24956 24956 Prob>χ 2 0.000 0.000 : ;CV ;* ** *** 10% 5% 1% 6, (Entry), (domshare),,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,,,, : 1lntfp1 (meanlntfpc1) 94
: (meanlntfpc1) (intanas1) (newpshare1);ln- vad1 (meanlnvadc1) (meanlnvadc1) intanas1 newpshare1 2 coast=(0,1),, 12,coast 1, 0 :,2012:, 7,2015: :, 1,2011: 2011,,2012: :, 1,2006:, 6,2012: :, 4,2015: -, 5,2009:, 3,2014:, 9,2008: :, 7,2012:, 5,2012:, 5,2007: :, 5,2005:, 12 Anderson,J.E.& E.van Wincoop(2004), Tradecosts,Journalof Economicliterature42(3):691-751. Bernard,A.B.etal(2012), Theempiricsoffirmheterogeneityandinternationaltrade,AnnualReview of Economics4 (1):283-313. Brandt,L.J.etal(2012), Creativeaccountingorcreativedestruction Firm-levelproductivitygrowthinChinese manufacturing,journalof DevelopmentEconomics97(2):339-351. Chaney,T.(2008), Distortedgravity:Theintensiveandextensivemarginsofinternationaltrade,American Eco- nomic Review 98(4):1707-1721. Greenaway,D.etal(2007), Financialfactorsandexportingdecisions,Journalof InternationalEconomics73(2): 377-395. Guariglia,A.& S.Mateut(2010), Inventoryinvestment,globalengagement,andfinancialconstraintsintheUK: Evidencefrom microdata,journalof Macroeconomics32(1):239-250. Heckman,J.J.(1979), Sampleselectionbiasasaspecificationerror,Econometrica47(1):153-161. Krugman,P.(1980), Scaleeconomies,productdiferentiation,andthepaternoftrade,American Economic Re- view 70(5):950-959. Levinsohn,J.& A.Petrin(2003), Estimatingproductionfunctionsusinginputstocontrolforunobservable,Re- view of EconomicStudies70(2):317-342. Lu,D.(2010), Exceptionalexporterperformance Evidencefrom Chinesemanufacturingfirms,UniversityofChi- cago,job MarketPaper. Melitz,M.(2003), Theimpactoftradeonintra-industryrealocationsandaggregateindustryproductivity,Econo- metrica71(6):1695-1725. ( : ) ( : ) 95