* : 2005-2007 0 0.0214 1% 26.58% : 1% 10%~ 15% 2015 (R&D) ( 600 ) 10 R&D 2.08% 2013 R&D 11846.6 13.07% 8837.7 R&D 74.6% 2013 R&D : * :100871 :nk94zhang@pku.edu.cn; :100871 :jiayingliukate@pku.edu.cnhezonghui@pku.edu.cn (15ZDA007) 28
Griliches(1980) U Segerstrom(1991) (2015) Carboni(2011) [0.00090.0399] Aerts & Schmidt (2008) (CIS Iand IV) (2013) ( ) ; (2013) 2009-2012 22 0.16 ; (2015) (2003) Jones & Wiliams(1998) 1 (2014) 254 ;Levy & Terleckyj (1983) 2016 12 1: 1 0.27 ;Mukoyama 2 (2003) 2: ;Clausen(2009) 2002 (CIS3) 29
+β 2 xiti (qit >γ)+εit (1) yit x εit 3 3: I( ) (IndicatorFunction) I( ) 1 0 x it (γ)= x iti (γ) β=( β 1 β 2 ) (1) : yit =μ i + β x it (γ)+εit (2) εit 0 σ 2 εit~i.i.d(0σ 2 )id (2) 4 γ 4: (OLS) S 1 (γ)=e t et S 1 (γ) γ (3) : γ =argmin S 1 (γ) (3) γ 5 5: : H0: β 1=β ; 2 H1: β 1 β 2 H 0 (1) (4) : yit =μ i + β (4) 1 xit +εit OLS β 槇 1 β1 e 槇 it S 0=e 槇 it e 槇 it F : 5 F 1 = ( S 0 -S 1 (γ )) 5.1 5.2 σ = ( S 0 -S 1 (γ )) (5) 2 S 1 (γ ) 5.1: n(t -1) F 5.2: F (Bootstrap) F ( ) P Hansen(1999) : (1) H0:γ=γ0 ; : yit =μ i + β 1 xiti (qit γ) 30 qit γ β 1 β 2 x it H1:γ γ0 (6) :
LR 1 (γ)= ( S 1 (γ)-s 1 (γ )) (6) σ 2 LR 1 (γ) Hansen (4) (1999) (7) : :(1) ;(2) ( ) F (5) F 300 2016 12 C(α)=-2log(1- 槡 (1-α )) (7) α LR 1 (γ)> (5) C(α) α γ =γ0 ( ) : 1999-2011 2005-2007 5 :LNSIZE :(1) ;(2) ;LEVERAGE ;(3) 1 ;FAD ; zjmd ;jytrqd Bootstrap (5) P (1) 1 1 : ; IT ; (2) (3) ; P 31
0.618 3 90% 95% 3 99% 90% 1 3 OLS ( 2) 2 (8) ; (9) 1 F P F P F P F P 281.5 *** 0.000 4.84 0.240 56.58 *** 0.000 300.28 *** 0.000 52.36 *** 0.000 0.24 0.517 2.7 0.260 94.10 *** 0.000 48.96 0.420 0.17 0.617 4.35 0.260 42.98 0.618 1% 5% 10% 2 OLS OLS P P FAD 0.0049003 0.978 0.0156966 0.951 LEVERAGE -0.0013879 0.684 0.0019191 0.685 LNSIZE -0.002567 0.043-0.009117 0.064 zjmd 0.00000052 0.415 0.000000599 0.508 jytrqd 0.0122995 0.025 0.0135174 0.082 Ginv 1-0.0020069 0.856 54.53312 0.12 Ginv 2 0.5461993 0.721 Ginv 3 0.0466252 0.781 Ginv 4-0.0016148 0.918 0.0240654 0.024 0.0735254 0.062 R 2 0.0006 0.0018 4788 4788 3 0.0195 *** [0.01700.0225] 0.0129 *** [0.01290.0129] 0.0467 *** [0.04670.4670] 0.0195*** [0.01700.0225] 0.0467 *** [0.04670.4670] 0.0392 *** [0.03210.0456] 0.0214 *** [0.01800.0255] 1% 5% 10% 32
2016 12 1 2 0.0195 0.0392 0.2876714 3 yit =μ i + β 1x iti(qit γ1) +β 2x iti(γ1 <qit γ2) +β 3x iti(qit >γ2)+contr+εit (8) yit =μ i + β 1x iti(qit γ1)+β 2x iti(qit >γ2) 3.11% +contr+εit (9) yit ( )x it ( )qit ( )contr ( )εit γ [00.0195] β 1 β 2 x it I( ) I( ) 1 0 (8) (9) ( ) 4 0.0905566 0.0311397 0.2876714 9.06% 0 0.0129 33
88.32% GDP 2005-2007 6 ( 5) 2005-2007 4 P P P FAD 0.0935411 *** 0.000 0.0189285 0.175 0.1072982 *** 0.000 LEVERAGE -0.0009462 *** 0.000-0.0008781 0.137-0.0003662 *** 0.000 LNSIZE 0.0000493 0.638 0.0005777 * 0.076 0.0006779 *** 0.000 zjmd 0.000000488 *** 0.000 0.000000174 0.436 0.000000014 * 0.099 jytrqd 0.0004105 *** 0.000 0.0006467 *** 0.007 0.0005196 *** 0.000 Ginv 1 0.2876714 *** 0.000 0.8832056 *** 0.000 0.2657699 *** 0.000 Ginv 2 0.0905566 *** 0.000 0.0021321 0.546 0.0923074 *** 0.000 Ginv 3 0.0311397 *** 0.000 0.0082944 *** 0.000 0.0010889 0.289-0.004723 0.175 0.0082944 0.000 R 2 0.0116 0.0125 0.004 273981 6495 646071 1% 5% 10% 5 2005-2007 2005 2006 2007 0 188373 90.64% 213496 90.42% 647250 95.96% 0 15537 7.48% 17449 7.39% 20676 3.06% 1836 0.88% 2355 1.00% 2890 0.43% 2074 1.00% 2811 1.19% 3655 0.55% 207820 100% 236111 100% 674471 100% 34
7 0.0101 [0.00720.0115] 0.0221 [0.0193 8 0.0252]; [0 0.0393 10% 0.0101] [0.01940.0552] 40.68% [00.0393] ; 13.54% 90% 95% 99% 6 2016 12 F P F P 117.97 *** 0.000 8.92* 0.080 14.70 * 0.100 1.58 0.600 26.87 0.600 2.84 0.500 1% 5% 10% 7 95% 95% 0.0221 *** [0.01930.0252] 0.0393 * [0.01940.0552] 0.0221 * [0.01930.0252] 0.0101 * [0.00720.0115] 1% 5% 10% 8 P P FAD 0.1011904 *** 0.000 0.082081 *** 0.000 LEVERAGE -0.0007864 *** 0.000-0.0012897 ** 0.014 LNSIZE -0.0007864 0.484-0.0006689 0.103 zjmd 0.000000552 *** 0.000 0.000000897 *** 0.000 jytrqd 0.0006581 *** 0.000 0.0004829 ** 0.030 Ginv 1 0.4067662 *** 0.000 0.1353676 *** 0.001 Ginv 2 0.23471 *** 0.000 0.0140112 *** 0.040 Ginv 3 0.0606599 *** 0.000 0.0026617 0.155 0.0082583 *** 0.041 R 2 0.0095 0.0164 125644 15792 1% 5% 10% 35
4.0 2011 ( 11) 4 31.27% 68.73% 2015 2025 63.93 16.61 19.15 62.39 18.68 18.93 48.36 14.72 36.91 54.27 16.72 29.01 12 9 63.9% 16.6% 19.15% 48.36% 14.7% 36.91% 62.39% 18.6% 18.93% 54.27% 16.7% 29.01% 10 95% 95% 0.0186 *** [0.00570.0495] 0.0456 *** [0.04560.0456] 11 P P FAD 0.1229267 *** 0.000 0.8219101 *** 0.000 LEVERAGE -0.000000175 0.702-0.0020533 *** 0.000 LNSIZE -0.001158 *** 0.000 0.000127 0.740 zjmd 0.000000000395 0.703-0.0000000153 0.657 36 jytrqd 0.0002476 *** 0.000 0.0007717 *** 0.002 Ginv 1 0.1359635 *** 0.000 0.2886704 *** 0.000 Ginv 2 0.0025294 * 0.079 0.021796 *** 0.000 0.0122557 *** 0.000 0.0020047 0.596 R 2 0.0029 0.0227 262245 31599
( ) 10 11 0.049( 12) [00.0465] 13 0.2887 0.1956 0.0168 [00.0186] 0.1360 1% 13.60% 5.2 5 : 2005-2007 ( 37) 12 2016 12 95% 95% 0.049 *** [0.0810.095] 0.0456 *** [0.04560.0456] 1% 5% 10% 13 P P FAD 0.0287269 *** 0.006 0.8219101 *** 0.000 LEVERAGE -0.0011147 ** 0.044-0.0020533 *** 0.000 LNSIZE -0.0005257 0.179 0.000127 0.740 zjmd -0.00000000345 0.869-0.0000000153 0.657 jytrqd 0.0007161 *** 0.008 0.0007717 *** 0.002 Ginv 1 0.195568 *** 0.000 0.2886704 *** 0.000 Ginv 2 0.0167518 *** 0.000 0.021796 *** 0.000 0.0084762 ** 0.030 0.0020047 0.596 R 2 0.0016 0.0227 61272 31599 1% 5% 10% ;F P 300 Bootstrap 37
OLS : 2013: 5 2013: 10 2015: 1 2015: 1 2014: [00.0214] 9 0.2657699 2015: [00.0129] 0.8832056 6 [0 AertsK.& T.Schmidt(2008) Twoforthepriceofone 0.0195] Research Policy37(5):806-822. 0.2876714 CarboniO.A.(2011) R&DsubsidiesandprivateR&Dex- penditures:evidencefromitalianmanufacturingdata Inter- nationalreview of Applied Economics25(4):419-439. ClausenT.H.(2009) Dosubsidieshavepositiveimpactson R&Dandinnovationactivitiesatthefirmlevel Structural : Changeand Economic Dynamics20(4):239-253. ; GrilichesZ.(1980) R&Dandtheproductivitylowdown 0.0465 American Economic Review 70(2):343-348. 1% 28.87%; HansenB.E.(1999) Thresholdefectsinnon-dynamicpan- els:estimationtestingandinference Journalofecono- 0.049 metrics93(2):345-368. 1% 19.56% JonesC.I.&J.C.Wiliams(1998) Measuringthesocialre- : turnto R&D Quarterly Journalof Economics113(4): 1 1119-1135. 2 P 0.78 LevyD.M.& N.E.Terleckyj(1983) Efectsofgovernment R&DonprivateR&Dinvestmentandproductivity:A macroeco- 3 nomicanalysis BelJournalof Economics14(2):551-561. 0 87.77% MukoyamaT.(2003) Innovationimitationandgrowthwith 4 cumulativetechnology Journalof Monetary Economics 50 34~41 43 (2):361-380. 2025 SegerstromP.S.(1991) Innovationimitationandeconomic 5 growth Journalof PoliticalEconomy99(4):807-827. ( : ) 38