2010 8 31 *,PhD* (8610) 6622 9075 jian.zhang@bocigroup.com ( ) A BOCR <GO> thomsonreuters.com ( www.bociresearch.com.) (OVERWEIGHT)/ (BUY) ( ) 6 10% (UNDERWEIGHT)/ (SELL) ( ) 6 10% (NR) (NEUTRAL)/ (HOLD)( ) 6 10%
...3...6...12...19...23 2010 8 31 2
1. 2. 2009 9 22 23 47 2009 11 23 2010 2010 797 7 8 9 2010 8 31 3
10 8 2010 8 31 4
3. 300105.SZ 600143.SS 600875.SS 002324.SZ 600703.SS 600596.SS 000541.SZ 002211.SZ 300046.SZ 300019.SZ 000939.SZ 600309.SS 600388.SS 002165.SZ 002123.SZ 600230.SS 002064.SZ 300020.SZ 002254.SZ 002415.SZ 002395.SZ 000997.SZ 002343.SZ 600198.SS 000928.SZ 600100.SS 002453.SZ 600037.SS 002250.SZ 002238.SZ 002004.SZ 300027.SZ 002326.SZ 002466.SZ 000790.SZ 002460.SZ 600195.SS 002407.SZ 002100.SZ 002091.SZ 002041.SZ 600884.SS 000998.SZ 000973.SZ 002086.SZ 000839.SZ 600176.SS 300073.SZ 002247.SZ 002409.SZ 002088.SZ 600550.SS 002225.SZ 600586.SS 002392.SZ 600590.SS 300072.SZ 002202SZ 300056.SZ 300082.SZ 600006.SS 300041.SZ 600875.SS 002297.SZ 000970.SZ 000039.SZ 600366.SS 600038.SS 2010 8 31 5
GDP 2009 2006 1.241 / 1.093 / 12% GDP 42.2% 39.5% 2009 2006 2009 18.5% 18.1% 18.17% 35.90% 2006 77.6% 2009 74.5% 3.1 1.6 1.7 GDP 10 10 2010 8 31 6
4. ( ) 5%-8% 2010 8 31 7
2009 6 2007 4 5. 2010 8 31 8
2007 5 6. 7. 2010 8 31 9
2009 4 2006 2 (2006-2020 ) 2010 8 31 10
2010 8 31 11
2009 50 70 2010 8 31 12
8. (2010.5.5) 9 (2010.8.10) (2010.8.10) (2010.6.22) 6 (2010.6.3) 2020 780 12 5 1.5 1500 1000 2011 2015 300 200 50 2010 2015 100 ( ) 2010 8 31 13
9.2009 2009 1 13 2009 2 2009 3 2009 5 2009 5 2009 5 2009 2009 5 1 2 1.5 550 350 13 13 2009 6 ( ) 2009 1500 1000 600 5000 ( ) 2009 7500 1000 5000 2000 6000 ( ) ( ) 10 13 1.2 ( ) ( ) 2008 ( ) ( ) 2010 8 31 14
.. 9. 2009 2010 4 2010 4 2010 5 2010 6 2010 6 2010 7 2010 8 18 2012 2015 8 2010 6 1 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.30 2009 2012 10% 2015 20% A A 5 : 2 1 1.8 18 2010 2087 762 279 201 192 175 143 84 230 226 180 165 165 128 2010 8 31 15
10. 2008 2008 2 2008 2008 3 2009 1 2009 2009 2 2008 5 1 2005 9% 8% ( ) 2010 7 2 1 1.8 ( ) 2010 8 31 16
11. 2003 1 2006 1 2006 2 (2006-2020 ) 2006 3 2007 3 2007 2009 10 12. 2007 4 2009 6 1 2 3 4 2010 7 2010 7 15 2006 2020 ( ) 2010 8 31 17
2010 8 31 18
A 2005 50%-100% 2008 10 15% 175% 2005-2007 300 15.83% 20.36% 18.71% 17.87% 2009 13.86% 2011 18.18% 300 14.03% 15.17% 13. 300 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 01-05 03-05 06-05 08-05 11-05 01-06 03-06 06-06 08-06 11-06 01-07 04-07 06-07 08-07 11-07 01-08 03-08 06-08 08-08 10-08 01-09 03-09 06-09 08-09 10-09 12-09 03-10 05-10 08-10 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 2010 8 31 19
14. 300 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 2008 2009 2009 3 2010 2 3:3:2:2 M2 2008 2010 8 31 20
15. 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 03-00 03-01 03-02 03-03 03-04 03-05 03-06 03-07 03-08 03-09 03-10 16. 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 03-07 06-07 09-07 12-07 03-08 06-08 09-08 12-08 03-09 06-09 09-09 12-09 03-10 06-10 17. 18. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 30% 28% 26% 24% 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 150% 130% 110% 90% 70% 50% 30% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 2010 8 31 21
2,000-3,000 2009 19. 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 06-05 08-05 10-05 12-05 02-06 04-06 06-06 08-06 10-06 12-06 02-07 04-07 06-07 08-07 10-07 12-07 02-08 04-08 06-08 08-08 10-08 12-08 02-09 04-09 06-09 08-09 10-09 12-09 02-10 04-10 06-10 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0-500 -1,000 A 2008 A 2010 8 31 22
(300105.SZ/ 92.20 ) (600875.SS/ 25.71) (600703.SS/ 50.40 ) (000541.SZ/ 18.26 ) (300046.SZ/ 42.83 ) (000939.SZ/ 17.01 ) (600388.SS/ 29.55 ) (002123.SZ/ 37.68 ) (300020.SZ/ 23.28 ) (002415.SZ 80.26 ) (000997.SZ/ 12.79 ) (600198.SS / 18.36 ) (600100.SS / 23.26 ) (600037.SS / 14.03 ) (002238.SZ / 23.28 ) (300027.SZ / 33.24 ) (000790.SZ/ 14.99 ) (600195.SS/ 27.82) (002100.SZ/ 19.44 ) (002041.SZ/ 66.20 ) (000998.SZ/ 23.88 ) (002086.SZ/ 15.39 ) (600176.SS / 20.66 ) (002247.SZ / 18.95 ) (600550.SS / 25.38 ) (600586.SS/ 12.34 ) (600590.SS / 13.24 ) (002202.SZ / 18.72 ) (600006.SS / 5.75 ) (600037.SS / 25.71 ) 2010 8 31 23
(000039.SZ / 14.20 ) (600038.SS / 28.49 ) (600309.SS/ 16.15) (002165.SZ/ 16.73 ) (002088.SZ/ 17.08 ) (600596.SS/ 13.27 ) (002211.SZ/ 13.50 ) (002409.SZ/ 28.69 ) (600143.SS/ 11.35 ) (002324.SZ/ 38.70 ) (002064.SZ/ 10.04 ) (002254.SZ/ 23.48 ) (002395.SZ/ 26.53 ) (002343.SZ/ 32.05 ) (300056.SZ/ 43.02 ) (300072.SZ/ 43.46 ) (000928.SZ/ 8.86 ) (300041.SZ/ 64.06 ) (300082.SZ/ 78.90 ) (002453.SZ/ 36.00 ) (002250.SZ/ 25.07 ) (002004.SZ/ 54.31 ) (002326.SZ/ 60.00 ) (002297.SZ/ 25.96 ) (002382.SZ/ 35.95 ) (002341.SZ/ 37.60 ) (002460.SZ/ 69.25 ) (300031.SZ/ 20.88 ) (300019.SZ/ 20.65 ) (002450.SZ/ 21.52 ) (600230.SS/ 14.14 ) (002407.SZ/ 50.74 ) (002091.SZ/ 32.00 ) 2010 8 31 24
(600884.SZ/ 20.02 ) (000973.SZ/ 16.01 ) (000839.SZ/ 14.17 ) (300073.SZ/ 57.91 ) (002225.SZ/ 12.28 ) (002392.SZ/ 38.06 ) (300072.SZ/ 43.46 ) (300072.SZ / 43.02 ) (300082.SZ / 78.90 ) (300041.SZ / 64.06 ) (002297.SZ / 25.69 ) (000970.SZ/ 17.46 ) (600366.SS/ 18.77 ) 2010 8 30 ( ) 6 10% ( ) 6 10% (NR) ( ) 6 10% 2010 8 31 25
/ (i) 1% (ii) (iii) (iv) 12 2010 8 27 2010 8 31 26
( ), ( ) () / ( )( ) ; () (BOC International (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.) Financial Advisers Act (FAA) Financial Advisors Regulation (FAR) ( 110 ) Regulation 2 BOC International (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. (1) FAR Regulation 34 FAA 27 ; (2) FAR Regulation 35 FAA 36 () 2010 200 39 200121 : (8621) 6860 4866 : (8621) 5888 3554 :(852) 2867 6333 : 10 10800 8521065 21 10800 1521065 800 852 3392 :(852) 2147 9513 :(852) 2867 6333 :(852) 2147 9513 28 2 15 :100032 : (8610) 6622 9000 : (8610) 6657 8950 ( ) 90 EC4N 6HA : (4420) 7022 8888 : (4420) 7022 8877 ( ) 1270 202 NY 10020 : (1) 212 259 0888 : (1) 212 259 0889 () 199303046Z (049908) : (65) 6412 8856 / 6412 8630 : (65) 6534 3996 / 6532 3371