报告总结

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1 CFEF RR/4/5

2 6 Srucure 994 VR,,,.2.,,,,,,,,,. : Srucure Mudell 22 GDP

3 WTO 3 5 FDI,, ard ,

4 .5,

5 , IMF Mudell , 5 6 achor

6 macroecoomc performace,, P. Dool, Folkers-adau ad Garber He 24 Q., Yag X

7 G Y D G C P I V O _ E R GYD GCPI VO_ER

8 ,, Oku 978 Gordo ad Kg 982 Makw 99 Ball 994 Flardo 998 Cecche ad Rch 2 Mudell 96 rlemma Ga ad Hausma 997 omal achor Cecche ad Rch 2 Srucure VR 8,, sacrfce rao,.,,,,,.,,, Srucure VR b b2 b2 b3 b3 b2 b2 b22 b23 b23 b3 b3 b32 b32 b33 [,, ] oao progress 8 SVR SVR

9 9 Vecor-mog-aerage mpulse respose k k k a a a 3 a 33 3 a a M 3,, : 33 3 a a S Blachard ad Quah 988,,

10 GDP 995, 994 bdur 993 m 2 / log log m S S 2 / 2 2, 3, m 8bdur DF up o dow GYD GCPI I, VO_ER ugmeed Dcke Fuller Tess eel s dfferece GYD * GCPI *** * HVO_ER * * ** *** 5 S,, 4,, X, 2, : X Kee ad Rodrk 986, Kora ad asrapes 989, 99 3,.,. 4 GCPI %, %. GCPI,.

11 5 B b b 2 3 BX 2 2 B X b b 2 32 B X b b 3 23 B X B X 2, B B B B2 B, [,, ], 2 σ 2. E Ω σ : 6 E µ X X E2 X 2 E X 2 σ 5 E B B B µ, E µ µ Σ, B I E B , : B E B E µ µ Σ Ω B B E µ µ Σ, B, B, B,, mpulse respose. 7 9, 6 Σ,, B, Gal992 :,, b 2 2,, a 2.., OS IC

12 ,,,, 33.5%, -2%, M -.692, S ,, 7 %.7%, 2.874%,,.24% 2,, GDP 32.7%, 2 M 2-4%, -8.86, S , %.87%, 2.375%,.98%. 6 Srucure VR, 994. SVR,,., 994,,,.2.,,,

13 ,,,,,.,,,,,.

14 :. bdur R.C., Does exchage rae olal depress rade flows? edece from error-correco models, The Reew of Ecoomcs ad Sascs, Vol. 75, No. 4, 7-76, khar, M.. ad R. S. Hlo, Exchage rae ucera ad eraoal rade: some cocepual ssues ad ew esmaes for Germa ad he Ued Saes, Federal Resere Bak of New York, Research Paper No.843, rze,.c., The mpac of exchage rae ucera o expor growh: edece from Korea daa, Ieraoal Ecoomc Joural, Vol., 49-6, Ball,. M., Wha deermes he sacrfce rao? I Moear Polc, ed. N. Gregor Makw. Chcago: Uers of Chcago Press, Baro, D.P., lucuag exchage raes ad he prcg of expors, Ecoomc Iqur, Vol. 4, , Bell, G. ad J. Campa, Irreersble Iesmes ad Volale Markes: Sud of he Chemcal Processg Idusr, The Reew of Ecoomcs ad Sascs, Vol. 79, No., 79-87, Beas-Quere,.,. Foage ad. ahreche-rel Exchage Rae Sraeges he Compeo for racg Foreg Drec Iesme, Joural of he Japaese ad Ieraoal Ecoomes, Vol. 5, No. 2, 78-98, 2 8. Blachard, O. J. ad D. Quah, The damc effecs of aggregae demad adsuppl dsurbaces. merca Ecoomc Reew Vol. 79, No. 9, , Campa, J., Er b Foreg Frms he Ued Saes uder Exchage Rae Ucera, Reew of Ecoomcs ad Sascs, Vol. 75, No. 4, 64-22, 993. Campa, J. ad. S. Goldberg, Pass-hrough ad exchage raes: a cross-cour comparso, NBER Workg Paper, No. 539, 995. Cecche, S., R. Rch, Srucure esmaes of he U.S. sacrfce rao, Joural of Busess ad Ecoomc Sascs, Vol. 9, No. 4, , 2 2. Chou, W.., Exchage rae arabl ad Cha s expors, Joural of Comparae Ecoomcs, Vol. 28, 6-79, 2 3. Clark, P. B., Ucera, Exchage Rsk, ad he eel of Ieraoal Trade. Weser Ecoomc Joural Vol., No. 9, 32-33, Cushma, D. O., Exchage-rae ucera ad foreg drec esme he Ued-Saes, Welwrschaflches rch, Vol. 24, No. 2, , Darb, J.,. Halle, J. Irelad, ad. Pscell, The mpac of exchagerae ucera o he leel of esme, The Ecoomc Joural, Vol. 6, No. 3, 55-67, Flardo,. J., New edece o he oupu cos of fghg flao, Federal Resere Bak of Kasas C. Ecoomc Reew Thrd Quarer, Frakel, J.. ad S. J. We, Trade Blocs ad Currec Blocs. Naoal Bureau of Ecoomc Research, Workg Paper No. 4335, Gal, J., How well does he IS-M model f poswar U.S. daa? Quarerl Joural of Ecoomcs Vol. 7, No. 4, 79-38, Shapro, M. D. ad M. W. Waso, Sources of busess ccle flucuaos. I NBER

15 Macroecoomcs ual, eds. Oler J. Blachard ad Sale Fscher. Cambrdge: M.I.T. Press, Goa,., Exchage rae ad rade goods prces, Joural of Ieraoal Ecoomcs Vol. 24, 45-68, Greee, W. H., Ecoomerc alss: Thrd Edo. Upper Saddle Rer, NJ: Prece-Hall, Ic, Goldberg,. S., Exchage Raes ad Iesme Ued Saes Idusr, Reew of Ecoomcs ad Sascs, Vol. 75, No. 4, , Goldberg,. ad C. Kolsad, FDI, exchage-rae arabl ad demad ucera, Ieraoal Ecoomc Reew, Vol. 36, No., , Gordo, R. J., ad S. R. Kg, 982. The oupu cos of dsflao radoal ad ecor auoregresse models. Bookgs Papers o Ecoomc c : Gupa, S., Exchage rsk eraoal rade uder alerae exchage ssems: he deelopg coures experece, upublshed Ph.D dsserao, Mchga Sae Uers, Hooper, P. ad S. Kohlhage, The Effec of Exchage Rae Ucera o he Prces ad Volume of Ieraoal Trade, Joural of Ieraoal Ecoomcs, Vol. 8, 978, p Krugma, P. R. ad M. Obsfeld. 2. Ieraoal Ecoomcs: Theor ad Polc: Ffh Edo. Readg, Mass.: ddso-wesle ogma, Ic. 28. Makw, N. G., 99. Macroecoomcs. New York: Worh Publshers. 29. Mchael P. D., F.. Dad, G. Peer, essa o he reed Breo Woods Ssem, Naoal Bureau of Ecoomc Research, Workg Paper No. 997, Oku,. M., 978. Effce dsflaoar polces. merca Ecoomc Reew 68 Ma: Sercu, P., ad C. Vahulle, Exchage rae olal, exposure ad he alue of exporg frms, Joural of Bakg ad Face, Vol. 6, No. 2, 55-82, ,,,, ,, FDI,, 5, 9, 3-8, ,, hp://mads.ss.ac.c/rmb/rmb-wp-9.pdf Emal: cdoglc@gscas.ac.c

不同短期利率模型的实证比较

不同短期利率模型的实证比较 433 lzfa@fuda.edu.c czhag@us.hk 997 8 5 Emprcal sudy o he fluece of macro ecoomc varables o bod excess reurs Chese bod marke Logzhe Fa School of Maageme, Fuda Uversy, Shagha 433 Chu Zhag Deparme of Face