Microsoft PowerPoint - POM_Capacity_Planning_2015.pptx

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Microsoft PowerPoint - POM_Capacity_Planning_2015.pptx"

娌衩家
7 years ago
Views:

1 Chapter 5 Strategic Capacity Planning Capacity Planning Concepts Determining Capacity Requirements Service Capacity and Service Quality Case: Disneyland Paris 預估每天的遊客約 3 至 6 萬人如何規劃自用車與巴士停車位? 如何規劃旅館房間數目? 如何規劃旅館的餐廳座位數? 2 1

Quality Case: Disneyland Paris 預估每天的遊客約 3 至 6 萬人如何規劃

2 What is Capacity? Capacity: the upper limit on the rate of output (amount of output over a period of time) Measurement of capacity 資源投入產品輸出汽車生產線運轉時數每日生產輛數工程設計人工小時每月設計件數醫院床位每月住院人數百貨公司實際營業面積每月營業金額 3 Strategic Capacity Planning Achieve a match between the long term supply capabilities and the predicted level of long term demand. Key questions in capacity planning: What kind of capacity is needed? How much is needed? When is it needed? 焚化爐大學數目發電容量 4 2

車生產線運轉時數每日生產輛數工程設計人工小時每月設計件數醫院床位每月住院人數百貨公司實際營業面積每月營業金額 3 Strategic Capacity

3 Different Definition of Capacity Design capacity (max. capacity) maximum output rate or service capacity an operation, process, or facility is designed for Effective capacity 應可達到的產能 Design capacity minus allowances such as personal time, maintenance, and scrap Actual output rate of output actually achieved may or may not exceed effective capacity 5 Optimal Operating Level 製程設計時規劃的產能水準, 依此運作的單位生產成本最低 Best Operating Level Effective Capacity <Max. Capacity 6 3

可達到的產能 Design capacity minus allowances such as personal time, maintenance, and scrap Actual output rate of output

4 Actual output Efficiency = 100% Effective capacity Actual output Utilization = 100% Design capacity Example 1 Overall Equipment Effectiveness = 稼働率產能效率良率 = 實際使用時間 / 全部可用時間產能效率良率企業的營運目的是賺取利潤, 不是提高設備使用率 7 Steps for Capacity Planning 1. Forecast future capacity requirements 2. Evaluate existing capacity 3. Identify alternatives 4. Conduct financial analysis 5. Assess key qualitative issues 6. Select one alternative 7. Implement alternative chosen 8. Monitor results 8 4

Capacity Planning 1. Forecast future capacity requirements 2. Evaluate existing capacity 3. Identify alternatives 4.

5 Forecast Future Capacity Requirements Product Lifecycle 1. Introductory phase 很難判斷產品未來需求, 謹慎規劃產能 2. Growth phase 善用預測以適時擴充產能, 注意競爭者動作 3. Maturity phase 預測市場是否持續穩定, 謹慎擴充產能 4. Decline phase 及早規劃產能的其他用途或出售設備 capacity cushion 9 Calculating Capacity Requirement 1. Forecast long term demand for individual products 2. Calculate equipment and labor requirements 3. Project and allocate resources over the planning horizon year B forecast % of capacity machine labor P forecast % of capacity machine labor 攻佔男廁 10 5

Forecast long term demand for individual products 2. Calculate equipment and labor requirements 3.

6 In-House or Outsourcing? Make or Buy Outsourcing: obtain a good or service from an external provider 1. Available capacity 缺乏產能 2. Expertise 缺乏技術 3. Quality considerations 品質不如別人 4. Nature of demand 需求不確定 5. Cost 成本高於別人 6. Risk 11 Developing Capacity Strategies 1. Design flexibility into systems 2. Take stage of life cycle into account 3. Take a big picture approach to capacity changes (where are bottleneck operations?) 4. Prepare to deal with capacity chunks 5. Attempt to smooth out capacity requirements 6. Identify the optimal operating level 12 6

Risk 11 Developing Capacity Strategies 1. Design flexibility into systems 2. Take stage of life cycle into account 3.

7 Bottleneck An operation in a sequence of operations whose capacity is lower than that of the other operations Operation 1 20/hr. Operation 2 12/hr. Operation 3 16/hr. Maximum output rate is limited by bottleneck 13 Smooth Out Capacity Requirements Identify products or services that have complementary demand patterns. 14 7

8 Economy of Scale 規模與產量增加, 將可發揮設備的效益, 降低單位生產成本 Unit Cost Fixed Cost Total Production Unit Variable Cost Diseconomies of Scale 當規模過大時, 可能因管理不易或內部作業過於複雜, 使單位成本不降反升當市場需求不及設計產能時, 可能被迫降價以消化庫存, 或讓產能閒置而造成單位成本上升 daewoo 15 Identify Optimal Operating Level 16 8

理不易或內部作業過於複雜, 使單位成本不降反升當市場需求不及設計產能時, 可能被迫降價以消

9 Financial Considerations Total Operations Cost = Fixed Cost + Variable Cost = Administrative Costs + Depreciation and Interest + Production Cost + Inventory and Transportation Cost + Variable Cost = Quantity unit variable cost ( ) Total Revenue = unit revenue (R) Quantity? Profit (Return) = Total Revenue Total Operations Cost Return On Invested Capital = Profit/Invested Capital 17 Cost-Volume Analysis (Break-Even Analysis) P= Total Revenue Total Operations Cost = Q R (FC + VC) FC P = 0 Q R = (FC + VC) = (FC + Q ) Q = R ν Example

10 Evaluating Alternatives P A = P B Q R (FC A + Q A ) = Q R (FC B + Q B ) FC A + Q A = FC B + Q B Q = FC ν B A FC ν B A point of difference 19 Planning Service Capacity Need to be near customers 服務產能必須位於或接近需求所在, 無法運輸 Inability to store services 服務產能具有易滅性, 無法庫存, 必須在需求發生時提供 Volatility of demand 服務產能容易受到需求時機內容顧客行為變化的影響 Solution: 價格行銷兼職人員等候線管理預約連鎖店自助服務作業標準化 20 10

所在, 無法運輸 Inability to store services 服務產能具有易滅性, 無法庫存, 必須在需求發生時提供 Volatility of demand

11 服務業與規模經濟服務業多以連鎖店來擴充規模, 並可大量採購以降低成本旅行社常大量購買航空公司機位或旅館房間, 以獲得降價優惠或追加佣金連鎖店經營可分直營自願加盟特許加盟加盟者可能經營不善或不遵守總部規範總部可能擴充過快或缺乏產品研發能力 21 Conclusion Strategic capacity planning 必須以長期需求預測為依據, 決策會顯著影響營運成本產能擴充需考量時機幅度方式評估 economies of scale 的利弊以財務成本觀念來評估不同的產能選擇服務業產能特性與規劃方式不同於製造業, 且影響服務品質 22 11

21 Conclusion Strategic capacity planning 必須以長期需求預測為依據, 決策會顯著影響營運成本產能擴充需考量時機幅度方式

<30332EAAFEA5F3A440A142A447A142A454A142A57CA147BEC7A5CDB14DB77EC3D2B7D3BEC7B2DFA661B9CF2E786C73>

<30332EAAFEA5F3A440A142A447A142A454A142A57CA147BEC7A5CDB14DB77EC3D2B7D3BEC7B2DFA661B9CF2E786C73> 嶺東科技大學財務金融系日四技學生專業學習地圖 02 年 6 月 28 日 0 學年度第二學期財務金融系課程委會議通過名稱微積分 ( 一 ) 微積分 ( 二 ) 個體經濟學商業套裝軟體 ( 二 ) 應用統計學 ( 一 ) 期貨與選擇權國際 - 管理學保險學商