2 : % 5.5% [10] ;Maat [11] Vale (IVM2PM) 10% [12] 1.9% Fang 2001 (NHTS) [13] [14~16] Simma SEM [17] ;N ss [3] Bagley SEM [18] [

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1 GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH Vol.31No.2 Feb ( ; ) : 2007 Amos : ; ; : ; ; ; ; ; : (2012) [1] (VMT) [23] ( ) [4] [5~8] Grazi (IV) [9] % Brownstone (StructuralE- quationsmodelsem) : ; : : ( ); ( ) : (1964-) chyw@pku.edu.cn

2 2 : % 5.5% [10] ;Maat [11] Vale (IVM2PM) 10% [12] 1.9% Fang 2001 (NHTS) [13] [14~16] Simma SEM [17] ;N ss [3] Bagley SEM [18] [19] Kitamura Bhat 2001 (BE) [20] [21] [22] [17] [17] [23] (selfselection) [24] [25] Handy [26] [27] ;Filion ; [28] Boarnet ;Moore [29] VMT [30~32] [417] ;

3 (traveldairy) 10 ( 1) ( ) ( ) % % ( ) Tab.1 Basicinformationofthestudyarea / / / / / / / / / 90 / 2000 / 2.2 (PathAnalysisPA) (Confirmato- ryfactoranalysiscfa) [33] y = By +Γx+ζ (1) y x B

4 2 : 337 Γ ζ 1 [34] 4 Γ 1 [33] Fig.1 Theconceptualmodelforhousehold A- carbonemission mos MicrosoftSQL (N trip) (D sum) 2 5 N j (2) (P j ) (P auto) P j =ln(n j +k)/ln(n t +k) (2) N j =0k =1+εε ; N j >0k=0;N j j N t [19] [35] TREMOVE2.4 [36] ( 2) 2 Tab.2 CO2emisionintensitybytransportmodes (g/ km) ( )..htp:// hyld/lyzt.shzrbg.asp2009

5 ; (3) CE pf CE pf = m i W j S j (3) W j j (g/km)s j j (km)i m ( 3) g 35.9km 3 Tab.3 HouseholdCO2emisionandmaintravelvariables ( ) (km) (g) (Dcenter) GIS ( ) ; (Density) ; (Mixland) 2km [17] ; (Tranacc) 500m ; (Subacc) 1000m (01)

6 2 : (Size) (Comu) (Ryear) (Ncar) (In- come) Amos7.0 ; (i=1 234) ; 16 (CMIN) df= P=0.053>0.05 CMIN/df= RMSEA=0.033<0.050CFI e i 2 Fig.2 Thepathanalysismodel 3.4 ( 4)

7 Tab.4 EstimatedstandardizeddirectindirectandtotalefectsinSEM model Size Comu Ryear Ncar Income Dcenter Density Mixland Tranacc Subacc N trip D sum P auto N trip 0.266** ** *** *** D sum 0.117* **-0.559** **-0.276**-0.464*0.164**-0.281**0.250** ** P auto *** *** ** CE ***0.529***0.578*** : ; *** 1% ; ** 5% ; * 10% (D sum) (P auto) (N trip) 64.8% (R 2 =0.648) (D sum) (P auto) (N trip) (R 2 =0.307) ( ) 2007 (Coef=0.135) (Coef= ) (Coef= 0.563)

8 2 : ( ) (Coef=-0.824) (Coef=0.008) (Coef= ) : (1) g (2) (3) (4) 4.2 [37] : (1) ( ) [38]

9 (2) ( ) (PersonalTripPlanningPTP) [39] ( TOD ) : : [1].. ( ) [2] BentoA MCropperM LMobarakA Metal.TheefectsofurbanspatialstructureontraveldemandintheU- nitedstates.thereviewofeconomicsandstatistics (3):466~478. [3] N ssp.accessibilityactivityparticipationandlocationofactivities:exploringthelinksbetweenresidentiallo- cationandtravelbehaviour.urbanstudies200643(3):627~652. [4] N ssp.urbanstructuresandtravelbehaviour:experiencesfromempiricalresearchinnorwayanddenmark. EuropeanJournalofTransportInfrastructureResearch20033(3):155~178. [5] BrownstoneD.KeyrelationshipsbetweenthebuiltenvironmentandVMT.In:TransportationResearchBoard andthedivisiononengineeringandphysicalsciencesspecialreport298drivingandthebuiltenvironment:the efectsofcompactdevelopmentonmotorizedtravelenergyuseandco2emissions [6] HandySKrizekJK.Theroleoftravelbehaviorresearchinreducingthecarbonfootprint:FromtheU.S.per- spective.thetriennialmeetingoftheinternationalassociationoftravelbehaviorresearch.jaipurindia2009 (10). [7] RodierC.Areviewoftheinternationalmodelingliterature:Transitlanduseandautopricingstrategiestore- ducevehiclemilestraveledandgreenhousegasemissions.transportationresearchboardannualmeeting.wash- ingtondcusa2009(1). [8] BrandCPrestonJM.'60-20emission':Theunequaldistributionofgreenhousegasemissionsfrompersonalnon- businesstravelintheuk.transportpolicy201017(1):9~19. [9] GraziFBerghJOmmerenJ.Anempiricalanalysisofurbanformtransportandglobalwarming.TheEnergy Journal200829(4):97~122. [10] BrownstoneDGolobTF.Theimpactofresidentialdensityonvehicleusageandenergyconsumption.Journalof UrbanEconomics200965(1):91~98. [11] MaatKTimmermansH.Acausalmodelrelatingurbanform withdailytraveldistancethroughactivity/travelde- cisions.transportationplanningandtechnology200932(2):115~134. [12] ValeDNiemeierD.CO2emissions:Areland-usechangesenoughforCaliforniatoreduceVMT Specificationof atwo-partmodelwithinstrumentalvariables.transportationresearchb201145(1):150~161.

10 2 : 343 [13] FangH A.Adiscrete-continuousmodelofhouseholds'vehiclechoiceandusagewithanapplicationtotheefects ofresidentialdensity.transportationresearchpartb200842(9):736~758. [14] HandySLNiemeierD A.Measuringaccessibility:Anexplorationofissuesandalternatives.Environmentand PlanningA (7):1175~1194. [15] KitamuraRAkiyamaTYamamotoTetal.Accessibilityinametropolis:Towardabeterunderstandingof landuseandtravel.transportationresearchrecord2001(1780):64~75. [16] KrizekKJ.Operationalizingneighborhoodaccessibilityforlanduse-travelbehaviorresearchandregionalmodel- ing.journalofplanningeducationandresearch200322(3):270~287. [17] SimmaA.Interactionsbetweentravelbehaviouraccessibilityandpersonalcharacteristics:TheCaseofUpper Austria.EuropeanJournalofTransportInfrastructureResearch20033(2):179~197. [18] Bagley M NMokhtarianPL.Theimpactofresidentialneighborhoodtypeontravelbehavior:Astructuralequa- tionsmodelingapproach.theannalsofregionalscience200236(2):279~297. [19] KitamuraRMokhtarianLPLaidetL.A micro-analysisoflanduseandtravelinfiveneighborhoodsinthesan FranciscoBayArea.Transportation199724(2):125~158. [20] BhatCRGuoJY.Acomprehensiveanalysisofbuiltenvironmentcharacteristicsonhouseholdresidentialchoice andautoownershiplevels.transportationresearchpartb200741(5):506~526. [21] TransportationResearchBoardandInstituteofMedicine.DoestheBuiltEnvironmentInfluencePhysicalActivity ExaminingtheEvidence.htp://trb.org/publications/sr/sr282.pdf2009. [22] CaoXMokhtarianPLHandySL.Dochangesinneighborhoodcharacteristicsleadtochangesintravelbehav- ior Astructuralequationsmodelingapproach.Transportation200734(5):535~556. [23] CaoXMokhtarianPLHandySL.Examiningtheimpactsofresidentialself-selectionontravelbehaviour:Afo- cusonempiricalfindings.transportreviews201029(3):359~395. [24] GolobTF.Structuralequationsmodelingfortravelbehaviorresearch.TransportationResearchPartB (1):1~25. [25] BadoeD AMilerEJ.Transportation-landuseinteraction:empiricalfindingsinNorthAmericaandtheirimplica- tionsformodeling.transportationresearchpartd20005(4):235~263. [26] HandySL.Smartgrowthandthetransportation-landuseconnection:Whatdoestheresearchtelus Internation- alregionalsciencereview (2):146~167. [27] FilionPMcSpurrenK.Smartgrowthanddevelopmentreality:Thedificultco-ordinationoflanduseandtrans- portobjectives.urbanstudies200744(3):501~523. [28] BoarnetM G.Planningclimatechangeandtransportation:Thoughtsonpolicyanalysis.TransportationRe- searchparta201044(8):587~595. [29] MooreA TStaleySRPoolejrR W.TheroleofVMTreductioninmeetingclimatechangepolicygoals.Trans- portationresearchparta201044(8):565~574. [30] N ssp.residentiallocationtravelandenergyuseinthehangzhou MetropolitanArea.TheJournalofTrans- portandlanduse20103(3):27~59. [31] CerveroRDayJ.ResidentialrelocationandcommutingbehaviorinShanghaiChina:Thecasefortransitorien- teddevelopment.htp:// [32] Pan H XShenQZhang M.InfluenceofurbanformontravelbehaviorinfourneighborhoodsofShanghai.Ur- banstudies200946(2):275~294. [33]. :AMOS. : ~305. [34] AckerVWitloxF.Carownershipasamediatingvariableincartravelbehaviourresearch:Astructuralequation modelingapproach.journaloftransportgeography (1):65~74. [35] IPCC.2006 IPCC. : ~16. [36] EuropeanCommission.TREMOVETransportModel.Brussels:EC-DG Environment2006. [37] (2):338~350. [38] (5):1327~1340.

11 cy (6): Low-carbonoptimizationstrategiesbasedonCO2emision mechanismofhouseholddailytravels:acasestudyofbeijing CHAIYan-wei 1 XIAOZuo-peng 1 LIUZhi-lin 2 (1.DepartmentofUrbanandEconomicGeographyColegeofUrbanendEnvironmentalScience PekingUniversityBeijing100871China;2.SchoolofPublicPolicyand Management TsinghuaUniversityBeijing100084China) [39] ChaterjeeK.Acomparativeevaluationoflarger-scalepersonaltravelplanningprojectsinEngland.TransportPoli- Abstract:Usingthehouseholdtravelsurveydata (2007)inBeijingobtainedbybehaviour geographyresearchteaminpkuwebuildonesingle-indicatorpathanalysismodelwith theamos7.0softwaretoexaminetheinnermechanismbetweenlandusetravelcharac- teristicsandco 2emissionsattheneighborhood-familylevels.Ourpurposeistofindwhat factorsandhowextentthesefactorsinfluencehouseholdco 2emitedduringdailytravels. Webelieveitcangiveusabeterunderstandingoftheoptimizationpathsandstrategiesto- wardslow-carbonurbanspatialstructureaswelasmosturgenttasksinourincreasingly warmingglobalenvironmentfromtheperspectiveofgeographyandurbanplanning.em- torswhichinfluencetheghgemissionsinhouseholddailytravels.thespatialland-use featuresinneighborhoodlevelhaveremarkableimpactonthetotaldistancewhilethereis nosignificantefectonthemodeprobabilityusingprivatecars.providingautopurchased piricalresultindicatesthattotaltraveldistanceandtrip modechoicearetheprimaryfac- carbonemissions have a dramaticincrease regarding to high-carbonization with the processirreversible.andthenunderpreviouscircumstancenosignificantevidencesim- plytrade-ofefectexistsbetweenthepublicandprivatetransportationdepartment.we concludestrategiessuchasmixedlanduseandfacilitiesprovisionshouldbeputintooper- ationtoreducethetraveloccurrencequantitiesandenhancethespatiotemporaldistribution ofdailytravelsandtokeepconsistencywithtransportationdemandmanagement.atthe sametimeaimedgreenlow-carboncitytheemphasesofurbanorganizationsandplan shouldbeshiftedfrom urbanphysicalelementstospatialbehaviorcoupled withspatial behaviourreschedulingandpersonalbehaviourplan. Keywords:householdtravelcharacteristics;carbonemissions;urbanspatialstructure; low-carbon;pathanalysis;beijing

,, [3], [4] ;,,,,, 2 2.1, ( 1) 30 14'55 ~30 16'56 N '19 ~120 05'08 E,, 5,,, 10.08km 2 1 Fig.1 ThediagramofXixiWetlandPark sposition,, 200

,, [3], [4] ;,,,,, 2 2.1, ( 1) 30 14'55 ~30 16'56 N '19 ~120 05'08 E,, 5,,, 10.08km 2 1 Fig.1 ThediagramofXixiWetlandPark sposition,, 200 31 6 2012 6 GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH Vol.31,No.6 June,2012, (, 310018) :,,,,,,, 7 26, : ; ; :1000-0585(2012)06-1121-11 1, 20%, Chris- topoulou [1],, 80,,, 2005,, 2005, 100, 37,,,,, 20 60, [2], 21, :2011-08-21;